Dan really just says everything Pete Smith and I do about How
But he sure does say that the super-accurate guys show up in play-action offenses in which the blocking opens up lanes and the Quarterback can "play reactive" rather than follow a script and strict check-down sequence.
He also mentions that play-action offenses offer an "extra pass-protector initially": He means a chipping Tight End, and/or the back who is faked to and then blocks a guy on his way into a pattern.
*Stefanski likes 2 Tight Ends a lot partly for that reason. They can both "chip" and make it very hard for Edge-players to flank and squeeze the pocket*
Dan Orlosky predicted a moster year for Mayfield in 2019 because he expected Freddie Kitchens to run a similar offense, and was irked when (Dorsey traded for OBJ and set up a drop-back offense to make Mayfield target him constantly and not run as much).
Mayfield is a short Quarterback who works best on the move and with carte blanche. Orlosky says the pocket actually widens in a play-action offense and this opens up throwing lanes; I can explain further:
The wide zone blocking scheme gets somewhat chaotic, which is why the running back doesn't know where he's going to plant his foot and make his move until he sees it.
Well, it's similar for a short Quarterback who isn't seeing the whole field all the time; he has to be allowed to target any receiver he sees.
If you're 6'5" and (preferably) have tall outside receivers, you can try the vertical check-down stuff, but not if you're short, closer to the scrum, and moving around.
There is a timing element here, of course, and a prescribed progression; The Quarterback is supposed to know where everybody will be at sequenced counts, but you can't interfere with his instincts.
Ellis L Williams offers us some reasonable hope that the Ravens' offense will regress in 2020.
Ellis cites various stats that indicate that every dominating offense regresses the following season, then opines on some of the reasons:
One is that if you do the same stuff again, defenses will "solve" you. Offenses need to change a few things to stay ahead of opposing defenses, but in so doing may be moving away from what they do best.
Ellis notes that the 2019 Ravens ran almost exclusively Pistol formations, and that Lamar Jackson leaned extremely hard on his slot receivers.
The Browns just added 2 starting safeties, a veteran slot corner, Delpit, Phillips, and Elliott to stifle that, and Roman/Harbaugh will need to "evolve" their scheme, at least a little.
Ellis expects Lamar to run less, and that makes sense, since they want him to be a real Quarterback, and to remain in one piece.
Ellis also says what I said a lot: The 2019 Ravens offense got stifled by the Browns and Titans when they fell behind early. They were not a "come from behind" offense, and the 2020 Browns, for one, can get ahead of the Ravens early (and then keep pounding them).
Certainly, Lamar Jackson will be improved in his third season, but for right now, opposing defenses are going to "sit on" his inside receivers and force him to throw outside.
They'll also put more speed on the field, and blitze inside (if they have strong DEs).
Sadly, the 2020 Ravens defense is ranked first in the NFL by CBSSports.com, so establishing that early lead is easier said than done.
Still, there is some hype here: Nobody notices this yet, but the Browns' defense is at least nearly as talented (you may snort and roll your eyes and make obcene noises for awhile. I'll wait.........)
Secondary: Which Ravens' cornerback is superior to Denzel Ward? Peters? I disagree, but ok if you say so.
FS Earl Thomas is a super-badass stud, but is also 31 years old, and I say Delpit is in his league from day one. First round pick Karl Joseph is elite (when healthy...which hasn't been often) and Greedy Williams was a second round pick coming on strong.
Jimmy Smith is 31 years old also. Chuck Clark is solid, but...
Front 7 (the Ravens run a unique front so it gets very complicated trying to sort out linebackers and defensive linemen):
The Ravens...ah screw it they just drafted Patrick Queen (Phillips's teammate) and Malick Harrison and already had Matt Judon, so the Ravens have better linebackers (except Queen is 6', 229 and is really a Safetybacker).
But the Browns have better down linemen. You could even delete Myles Garrett and find the two crews comparable.
If you think Patrick Queen can even bother any of the Browns' Tight Ends in coverage, you're lying to yourself. Queen could probably take care of Kareem Hunt or Nick Chubb as receivers (and blow up some runs too), but the Ravens really don't have much in the way of Tight End Kryptonite.
If the Ravens wanted a linebacker who could run and jump with Tight Ends, they should have drafted Phillips.
And there you go: This is why Stefanski loves those Tight Ends so much! Defenses keep trying to cover them with short people!
Sigh the nickel defense is used 2/3rds of the time today because offenses run 11 sets so often (one RB, one TE).
Modern defenses are built to run the nickel.
2 TEs will force some offenses into a 7-man front, and others into a "big nickel" with a Safetybacker instead of the third cornerback.
The 2 Tight Ends are blockers as well as receivers, and can block in space as well as in-line, and can chip-block and still go out for passes.
They are going up against shorter, lighter people in space, and this makes them effective in every phase of the game.
The 2 TE's Stefanski used in Minnesota were Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith, and Rudolph was mainly a blocker, until later in the season, when he started catching a bunch of TD passes (sneaky, huh?)
Adam Thielen missed a bunch of games while injured, and bad analysts say that the Vikings made Stefon Diggs the "focal point of the offense" to cope with that.
Chuh! They brought Rudolph out of mothballs and threw more passes to Dalvin Cook (and of course ran the ball even more).
Kevin Stefanski has even better offensive skill depth here than he had with the Vikings.
We can call OBJ/Landry vs Diggs/Thielen a wash. Kareem Hunt is a lot like Dalvin Cook. Hunt is more physical and Cook is quicker/faster, but they're both great receivers and playmakers.
The Browns 3 TEs are like the Vikings 2, sorta (you don't want me getting detailed here).
...but Njoku is scarier than the other 4, if he gets a little more reliable hands-wise.
Chubb is Chubb, and ices that cake.
Zone-blocking is a Shanahan thing, and lots of teams use it, but the 2/3 TE stuff is more a Stefanski thing (although he might have copped it from Greg Roman who knows?)
Anyhow, he's obviously adament about it, as Berry signed off on Njoku for a 5th year, overpaid Austin Hooper, and drafted Bryant Harrison.
The 2020 Browns offensive skill-players are the best-insured group in the NFL, and it starts with being 3-deep at Tight End.
One can get injured, and they can still use 2. Both can line up anywhere.
Kareem Hunt is really "extra". He can step in for Chubb seamlessly, and meanwhile line up anywhere and be a dangerous weapon (and by the way a willing and effective blocker).
Everybody talks about Landry and OBJ, but if you field both of them with 2 Tight Ends, you have to park Hunt or Chubb on the bench.
...who else in the NFL has this "problem"?
Can this awesome 2020 Ravens defense stop this 2020 Browns offense?
I don't think so. You'd have to actually believe that the 2019 Baker Mayfield is the "real him", and/or that Kevin Sefanski is an overhyped fake as well to expect any defense in the NFL to hold this offense to under 20 points.
Can Wills, Bitonio, Tretter, ?, Conklin, Hooper, Njoku, Landry, OBJ, and/or Hunt win their individual matchups more often than not?
Sigh obviously YES duh. And I personally agree with Dan Orlovsky that Mayfield is ready to rock again, as usual and that Stefanski can't screw this up.
The 2 Tight Ends...that in conjunction with a Shanahan scheme is just scary.
1: That second 6'4"+ 250+lb sub 4.75 40 individual is much better suited to block in space than any lumbering offensive lineman. He can beat a linebacker to the edge, smash a SS flat, wham a DE, chip, stay in and take on a DE in max-protect, stone backside pursuit, and just look for little people to smash downfield while escorting Chubb or Hunt or whoever.
2: He can wall off coverage for bullets, jump for high ones, or run under bucket passes because he's bigger and significantly taller than almost anybody that any defense could try to cover him with.
*As I mentioned, defenses are trying to cover these guys with Safetybackers who are quicker and faster and can jump, but they have zero chance of legally stopping a perfect pass, like Baker Mayfield can throw*
2a: If a defense has one (Phillips or Delpit-like) guy who has a chance of messing up an NFL-accurate pass to one of these big skyscrapers, it doesn't have TWO.
3: You can't man up on these guys unless they line up outside. I mean, you can have a big linebacker try to disrupt them at the line on his way to a blitze or something, but trying to run with them is---
--ok well it's mostly zone coverage, and you try to break it up (or at least converge), but pass-catching TEs are just very hard to stop...
More later okbye
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