Browns Need Veteran Mentors. And Nannies. And Babysitters. Did I say MENTORS? Jeeezzz

Everybody except Joe Woods is still talking about the Browns signing a veteran linebacker to mentor the young guys.

I get the impression that Clay Matthews III isn't a candidate, but Ogletree (28) might be a good add, but hey guys:

Who is telling you that it's critical for one guy in each position group to be an older veteran "mentor"?

It's a good idea yes, but talent comes first, and young, cheap guys trump older guys in the age of the salary cap.

The Browns will not carry more than five linebackers, and Woods/co don't hate Wilson, Takitaki, or Phillips nearly as much as everybody else does.

It was very interesting that Joe Woods intends to work all the linebackers at every position at first to determine how to make the most of each player.

Most new coaches look at game films and history to determine where to use the players they inherit, but Woods clearly wants a clean slate, and to judge for himself real-time.

This is smart here, as Mack Wilson was forced into a role by injury as a rookie, and Takitaki didn't get that many snaps.  Phillips was a 2-year college starter, and has a mixed bag of traits and skills himself.

As I keep repeating (even though it's obvious), young players progress rapidly in their first 3 NFL seasons.  I love that Joe Woods knows that the players he gets in 2020 will be much different than those he has 2019 film on, and assumes nothing.

Chad Porto is raising a red flag in re Woods' proposed 4-2-5 and dime defense, as he correctly points out that Steve Wilks ran a very similar scheme last season (with Joe Schobert) and was 3rd worst in the NFL vs the run.

Chad got into more persuasive stats showing that the team won when it stifled the run and lost when it didn't.

But Chad overlooked some things:  

1: Nickel defenses are neccessary vs commonly used personnel groups, including some teams' 2-Tight End sets.  If you try to use linebackers in coverage, the other team won't bother to run the ball.

2: Lamar Jackson humiliates every linebacker who tries to contain him as a runner.  A defensive back is nessessary for this.  (If you don't believe me, axe Joe Schobert).

3: Size isn't all there is to stopping the run.

Nfl running backs average around 222 lbs and safeties around 208 lbs.  Nobody is outweighed by 40 lbs.

Joe Schobert weighed around 240 lbs and still led the NFL in missed tackles, while a bunch of safeties were among the surest tacklers in the the league.

An offensive line can't block everybody, even in a zone scheme.  There are five of them, and where there are 4 defensive linemen, well--you get the math.

Check back a few posts where I talked about edge-defenders narrowing the field and funneling runners inside by preventing the RB from turning up the sidelines.  The guys who make the actual tackles here are unblocked linebackers and safeties.

Lighter, faster defenses can beat blockers to "spots", penetrate, and swarm.

Joe Woods was asked how he would stop his own team's offense.  He all but punted in his overly evasive, nebulous response, but I can answer for him:

You use your 4 down linemen to do your passrushing and containment, run man outside, match up on the other receivers as well as you can,  mix cover 2 with a single high safety, and use two linebackers like 3-4 Inside Linebackers (sorta).

Ok well not all 3-4s are alike.  I mean they line up shallow, ready to react to a run (or blitze), or to backpedal (only a few steps) to set up in zones vs a pass.

Here, they're not specifically accounted for in the blocking scheme (well really no specific players are) if it's a run, but they're positioned to react to a run, and they overmatch the big uglies in space.

It gets too deep with too many variables, but the important thing here is that one linebacker is responsible for the cutback inside (if the DE succeeds in cutting off the edge and forcing it).

The offensive linemen have to seal the backside and deal with 3 defensive linemen, and one of those DTs is deliberately tying the guard or center who would block the linebacker up ok nevermind but (I believe) Joe Woods' linebackers are run-stoppers first and coverage guys second, ok?

I'm not sure about Mack Wilson, but Phillips and Takitaki are opportunistic gap-shooters who can sneak in between big uglies and blow stuff up (instead of just "staying at home" and waiting for the RB to come to them).

To be honest, I'm not too clear on the details of Steve Wilks's defense, but can guarantee Chad Porto that not all 4-2's are alike.

I know this much: Wilks ran cover 3 and the linebackers covered more and deeper than I guesstimate that Woods's linebackers will.  (I believe that Schobert and Wilson missed a number of tackles because they were turning around out of coverage to stop shorter receptions and handoffs)

My clues to the Woods defense come from free agency and the draft: The Browns skipped all the freaky coverage guys and drafted Phillips.  Their only free agent was Jameson--a Bengals run-stuffer.

Phillips has great straight-line speed and is 6'3", but his 3-cone says he can't sustain man with upper-echelon Tight Ends, or recover (ie if he bites on a fake, he's dead).

Woods also seems to genuinely like Takitaki--and now has announced "open tryouts" for every position...I'm confident that Woods and Wilks view linebackers differently.

But I digress: I disagree with Chad Porto. Some form of nickel defense is mandatory for every NFL team.  Wilks and Woods are 2 of 20 or so DC's who will run 4-2 a lot.  Woods (I believe) relies more on press/man outside and a true center-fielder than Wilks did, and will let his linebackers be old school linebackers and stop the run first.

In re stopping the run, I should revisit Elliott Kennel's article on DaQuan Jones (Titans DT).

My earlier analysis of Elliott's article wasn't as well-considered as it should have been.

Sheldon Richardson is 30 and expensive.  Larry Ogunjobi has underachieved, and is a question mark right now.

Jones (per PFF) excels vs both the pass and run, is 6'4", 327 lbs, and is 28 years old.

Sheldon Richardson by himself is enough: He'll be 31 in 2021 and his release would return over 8 mil to the bank.  DaQuon Jones ranks very close to Richardson overall with PFF, so if the Titans release him, the Browns should go after him.

And yeah--they might consider trading a 5th round pick or something for him if they can work out a long-term deal in advance.

Elliott is still too fixated on DT as the universal answer to the run, but in DaQuan Jones he found a real winner who could help out a lot long-term.

Elliott you da man!  You too Chad--usually.

I'm greatly encouraged by Baker Mayfield's quiet offseason, and concur with MKC that it's a sign of maturity for him.

Don't get me wrong here:  Everything Baker did or said was overinflated last season, and he really wasn't that bad (except for his feud with Grossi).  But so far in 2020?  Wow!  And what Baker has said was all-business.

He hasn't responded to Colon Cowturd, or any of his much dumber permabashers either.  I think I can soon retire my Punky Punkfield nickname for Baker if this keeps up!

Mary Kay thinks the Clowney thing is about money, and suspects that Clowney is just hoping to force the buffalo to crap another .5 mil or so.

I hope she's right, because that would make a Clowney signing much more likely, once he gives up squeezing that nickel.

Last resort is, of course, Olivier Vernon.  I love Vernon!!! But I hate his ankles and knees (and I bet so does he).

Everson Griffen, come on down!  Griffen and Vernon are mutually possible for 2020, by the way.  They could do that and extend Garrett in 2020, and add Vernon's 15.5 mil to a still-significant carryover in 2021.

That's scary, aint it?  Andrew Berry could still overspend "recklessly" in 2020 to get all up in Big Ben and Jackson's faces and make the playoffs.

What if Everson Griffen had been here in 2019?  To replace Vernon and/or Garrett?  I know, taking the AFC North Title away from the Ravens is a tall order in 2020, but sweeping the Steelers (and retiring Big Ben) isn't.

Do you understand this?  Andrew Berry can still go for all the marbles in 2020 (overspending) while extending Garrett without denting his 2021 cap whatsoever.

As long as he doesn't trade high draft picks and young, ascending players for overpriced injury-prone geezers and overpay free agents like some people I know), Berry could go bonkers on a couple more 1-year contracts and maybe a DaQuan Jones 3-year deal and even possibly Clowney...

Ok I'll stop.  You're welcome.

Playoffs in 2020 is a realistic target.  A Superbowl in 2021 is also realistic.

I HAVE SPOKEN

Check with Me: Mayfield's Big Adventure. Cleveland Browns Stuff

Bucky Brooks says what I said about the reasons Baker Mayfield would bounce back big-time in 2020.

Bucky was a defensive back when he played in the NFL (before he got into scouting and stuff).  When he talks about how a given offensive scheme will effect a Quarterback, you should listen.

Without geeking out, Brooks gets a little technical in describing how the Stefanski offense worked in Minnesota, and how it's likely to be used with the Browns' skill personnel.

Bucky focused on the Tight Ends as receivers attacking seams, and curls and digs by OBJ and Landry, which shed more light on this for me:

It sounds like the Tight Ends will run more vertically than the wide receivers will!

This actually makes perfect sense, as they're challenging linebackers and safeties.  What are these defenders supposed to do when Nick Chubb is running all over them? They're the guys who have to stop the run--so sending the big tall receivers into their faces is perfect.

Bucky hinted at it:  Defenses will have to commit to aggression or coverage pre-snap, and hope they've guessed right and can blow something up.

The Tight Ends running vertical routes also makes it difficult for the Free Safety to help one of the corners out in coverage.

Bucky also mentioned "Check with Me"'s, which is how Bernie Kosar's offenses were set up.

Bernie had packages of three plays he could call.  The Coach would tell him which package he had, and (I think) the play they wanted him to run.

But the QB can look at the defense as he's in the huddle (mainly for presinnel, since defenses deliberately look like "mud" until the offense breaks and lines up) and change the call right there.

Then, as the offense and defense line up, the Quarterback can change the play to one of the other two in the package with one word...often after somebody goes in motion and he sees how the defense reacts.

Bernie loved this system.  Occasionally, he would flush a package and call his own play, but he says that 9 out of 10 times, one of the 3 plays he had "on deck" would work against what he saw.

Normally, these were one pass and two runs for Kosar, but his Browns didn't run RPOs or rollouts like Mayfield will, so it might be a little different for these Browns.

This is actually in Baker Mayfied's wheelhouse.

No knock on some Quarterbacks, but they do better when just following orders, because they don't read coverage well.

Every Quarterback learns to read coverage, but in the NFL defenses take deception to a whole new level.  Some Quarterbacks can (painfully) learn to read body language, glances, etc to see through it, but others can't.

Mayfield can.  Forget 2019: He had to run the plays they called.  Defenses didn't "catch up to" Baker Mayfield.  John Dorsey Freddie Kitchens led him into ambush after ambush.  If he was an old vet like Aaron Rodgers, he would have rebelled, but what if he had in 2019?

Bucky Brooks is right: Baker Mayfield is about to "go off" in 2020 in this offense.

He's off to a great start, as (per Jake Trotter) nine players attended "Camp Mayfield" in Texas, including Hooper, Njoku, and Case Keenum.

OBJ and Landry are rehabbing, and Nick Chubb can't gain much from it, so the other 5-6 guys include some combination of Higgins, Hodge, Ratley, Peoples-Jones, Hunt, Bryant, an/or others who are hanging on by their fingernails like Pharoah Brown, Hilliard, Johnson etc.  Maybe Javovich?

This isn't a bunch of guys running around in the back yard.  Keenum and Mayfield are calling actual plays off actual wristbands in simulated huddles, and the other guys are expected to acually understand it.

In the absence of any actual coaches, the Quarterbacks have to fill that role, and this will be great for Baker Mayfield, who needs to develop his "darker" side more, and yell at guys and stuff like Brady does.

Without the WR Coach there to jump on the receiver for not being where he's supposed to be, or half-assing, the Quarterback has to do it (or sure as hell should, if he doesn't want to get blamed for interceptions that weren't his fault!)

Baker Mayfield is already a born leader, but his guys follow him because they believe in him when things look worst (and they like him personally).  He does have an indefinable charisma, as well.

But he has room for imrovement, and having to coach receivers on routes will help him a lot.

He'll have to say stuff like, "if you keep doing this, I can't trust you.", and maybe "get your head out of your ass you won't make this team!"

Camp Mayfield will be great for depth, too.  The Mayfield-Higgins connection formed when they were both stuck on the 2nd and 3rd teams, and practiced together a lot.

Case Keenum is practicing with Hooper and Njoku here, while Mayfield is working with guys he's unlikely to get any reps with in this Covid 19 (bullshit) abbreviated season.

You can count on all this being recorded, and sent to Stefanski, too.  DePoBerry will make sure of it, so they can get a bead on all these new players ASAP.

Jake Trotter pointed out that it was Austin Hooper who reached out to Mayfield for offseason workouts, and Mayfield just took it from there.

The Jadeveon Clowney thing is clearing up somewhat.  As Adam Shefter (uncharacteristically) suggested, Clowney's rejection of the Browns' offer wasn't about money.

I don't believe that Clowney just doesn't like the city, or expects Stefanski and Mayfield to continue some "curse", or whatever.  I strongly suspect that Jadeveon Clowney insists on being THE Edge-rusher on his next team.

He had that chance with the Texans until JJ Watt got there, but was never a full-time DE.  Clowney might feel that he could have done a lot more as a full-time DE in Houston, and got screwed by his core muscle injury as well last year in Seattle.

I won't bash the guy, if he's trying to prove he wasn't a "bust", and will take less money to make sure he gets the same chance that Myles Garrett got.

Elliott Kennel, responding to the rumor that a deal with the Titans was likely, instantly suggested that if that proves to be true the Browns should target Titans DT DaQuan Jones, since the Titans are under cap stress, and Jones makes 7 mil/year.

Elliott stresses the 2019 (and prior) suckitude vs the run, and feels that the big/strong Jones would help there a lot.

Well ok look: Big strong Defensive Tackles are not the ONLY solution to the run, ok?  The Browns now have Billings, Elliott, Richardson, and Ogunjobi at DT, so who is Elliott planning to kick to the curb to make room for Jones?

Verily, Jones is bigger than everybody except Billings, but Elliott is talking about trading for him and his 7 mil/year salary.

Jones is an excellent DT, but is only under contract at 7 mil through 2020.

Sheldon Richardson is one year older than Jones, but Ogunjobi is only 26, and Elliott just got drafted.  Is cutting any of these guys worth trading a draft pick for Jones?

DUH!  But maybe if the Titans release him...but he's likely to cost MORE than 7 mil/year after that, so...

Elliott, stopping the run isn't all about big strong DTs.  You're obsessed by them.

Sheldon Richardson's dead money for 2020 is around 11.5 mil (much cheaper in 2021). Ogunjobi has little leverage right now, and could probably be extended pretty cheap.  Billings (per PFF) isn't as good as Jones, but won't break the bank either, if extended.

...actually I like DaQuan Jones (if released--not in a trade), and would even pay him like...well less than Richardson, but more than Ogunjobi or Billings...

Okbye

 

Browns vs Ravens 2020: Good and Bad News. Depending. Stuff Like That. And Stuff.

The Baltimore Ravens are obviously the team to beat in the AFC North in 2020.

Yes, they got upset by the Titans in the playoffs, but 14-2 is still pretty impressive, considering the fact that Lamar Jackson was only in his second season, with an offensive system that was just as new.

And (dammit) the Ravens as usual had very good off season and upgraded their talent.  It's really irksome, and predictable:

After all, the Browns just massively upgraded their talent and adopted a sensible offensive scheme, so the football gods just had to make sure that a top 2 AFC Contenders had to be in the same Division, right?

The ESPN guys are almost unanimous about the Steelers joining in another Browns' beat-down as well, and keeping them out of the playoffs.

I've pushed back on that, but have to admit it's possible, as they were 8-8 sans Big Ben, and upraded themselves again too (I know it's disgusting).  Claypool is HUGE--how do you cover a guy like that?  They got a dangerous big-play RB in McFarland and a passrushing 3-4 LB in Highsmith too (he's underrated...dammit).

Scott Patsco compared the Browns to the Ravens.  It's actually not as bad as an objective Browns fan might expect.

Scott had to give the 2019 League MVP the nod at Quarterback over Baker Mayfield.  There's no getting around Baker's acute suckdom last season.

The (duh) Mayfield-freindly offensive system, massively upgraded bodyguards, and Hooper etc will have Mayfield bouncing back big-time--and the real Baker can more than toe the line with Lamar--but Jackson is one of the scariest players in football, and he's the better Quarterback until he isn't.

The good part is, it's actually going to be close.  (Well--unless you're one of those mentally-challenged individuals who call Mayfied "garbage" or a "carreer backup").  (The majority of these geniuses called Lamar Jackson a "Wide Receiver" by the way).

The Browns got a slight edge at Running Back, and a clearer advantage at Wide Receiver.

This gets fuzzy, as the Browns have thrown to running backs and Wide Receivers more than the Ravens have, while the Ravens threw to Tight Ends all the time (Scott rates the Ravens' Tight Ends as better).

...and the Ravens offensive line, too.

My inner-fan wants to argue with Scott, but my inner-analyst duck-taped his mouth shut:

1: You can't argue speculation vs performance.  You can't predict that Hooper or Njoku will do this or that against what Boyle and Andrews have done.  You can't do that with Wills at LT, either, and you have to weigh continuity heavily with any Offensive Line analysis.

2: Andrews is just a "baby" so far, and he's already up there with Ertz, Kittle etc.

3: As Scott points out, all the Ravens Tight Ends are good blockers, while even Austin Hooper still needs work on that.

Having said that, however, I do believe that the Browns Offensive Line will become better than the Ravens', and that the Browns Tight Ends will "tighten up the race" with that Ravens' crew.

Indeed, you know that the Browns' coaches will show the Browns' Tight Ends films of Boyle and Anderson weekly--using these Division rivals as examples for them to emulate, don't you?

This is called "motivation", see?

Scott gives the Browns' Defensive Line the edge, but the Ravens took CB. S, and Linebacker.

There's more fuzziness here due to the different schemes.

But if you just lump the front 7s in together, you have to give the Ravens the edge here.

Safety and Cornerback?  Well like I said, you can't argue speculation over history, but the Browns are about to pass the Ravens up at Cornerback, and will be right with them at Safety.

Where the rubber meets the road between the Browns and Ravens will be in the individual matchups anyway; the position-by-position comparisons won't matter.

That's why intra-division games are often much closer than they look on paper, and there are more upsets.

The Browns can keep outside receivers outside.  While Lamar Jackson might get better at hitting the edges, so far that's been a weakness for him.  Vs press/man, he has to hit a tiny window, and that's a tall order for any Quarterback.

That's why outside receivers are ideally skyscrapers with long arms, see?  The Ravens put Anderson out there sometimes, but oknevermind:

Anyway Ward/Williams/Mitchell can cancel outside receivers without help vs Lamar Jackson, allowing the rest of the coverage guys to focus on the box (where Jackson throws most of his passes--and also runs, by the way)

The Ravens run a 2-TE base offense, and just drafted a stud RB in JK Dobbins, so some 2-backs should be coming too (it's very similar to Stefanski's offense, except for the QB as a runner part).

Normally, you field a base defense vs 2 Tight Ends, but you can't do that when the Quarterback routinely de-cleats (humiliates) linebackers on runs--not to mention that one of the Tight Ends is Anderson.

Grant Delpit and Jacob Phillips are anti-Anderson/Jackson additions, along with Karl Joseph and (recent post) Safetybacker JT Hassel (Jackson spy).

Many posts ago, I broke down what a "spy" really does--which is "mirror" the QB approximately as many yards away from the line of scrimmage as he is.  He's always positioned to come up and stop him on a run, and also right in front of him to screw up his easiest and safest passes.

Note to Chad Porto:  Joe Schobert should never have "spied" Lamar Jackson (or tried to cover Anderson by the way).  

Put a sub 4.35 hitter on the field instead of a bigger 4.72 linebacker and, well...?

You need to sweat bulk and brute force in the trenches, and even sometimes in coverage, but generally speed and athleticism trump brute force hell--look at what Lamar Jackson has done to every Joe Schobert he has faced is any of this sinking in yet?

More often than not, Lamar hands off or passes.  Well ok:

JT isn't assigned a blocker, and he's ideally positioned to come up to nail the running back.  Jackson can't throw too close to Hassel: Hassel is depriving him of options and forcing receivers to run around him.

And then, no matter where the ball goes or how it gets there, 4.37 guys are better than 4.72 guys, right?

That was sorta spitballing there, since DELPIT might "spy" Lamar Jackson in 2020 for all I know.

I'll try to fix the stupid font glitches on this platform and get into more matchups later, but for now can assure you that the 2020 Ravens will have to work to score more than 30 points on the Browns defense.

Okbye

Grant Delpit, Jadeveon Clowney, 2021 Cap Calamity, DePodesta, Business Analytics, and the Browns and Stuff

Yokels persist in perpetuating this "Grant Delpit is a poor tackler" narrative without any analyticial thought whatsoever, so thank you Tim Bielik for pointing out the obvious:

Tim took a look at the two games Delpit played in 2019 after he had had three weeks off to recover from the HIGH ANKLE SPRAIN which he had played with for several games.  These were the playoff and championship games, so it's even a better projector of what this Swiss Army safety will do in the NFL.

Tim didn't address Delpit's tackling in particular, but I heard a PFF writer say he missed zero tackles in those 2 games (including on both Quarterbacks when they scrambled).

As Kevin Stefanski says, Grant Delpit (like Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward) are here to cover first, and although KS didn't say it, it's really stupid to pass up a freak turnover machine because you're worried about his tackling.

This isn't to say that tackling is irrelevant (especially for a safety).  But Delpit's "issues" in this dept. were massively overstated.

Tim points out that in these 2 games, Delpit's best plays came from the slot.

That's good, because Andrew Sendejo is a pretty good seasoned veteran Free Safety and Karl Joseph is (when healthy) an elite Strong Safety.  Nickel corner is the simplest entry-level position, so using Delpit there is an efficient way of making sure you get your five best guys on the field while the rookie learns the ropes.

...but those who are worried about Grant Delpit's ability to play Free Safety in his first year are really just...well you're wearing masks in your cars, aren't you?  You won't roll down your window to talk to anybody, right?

Oh yeah hey everybody we're all in this together!  We'll get through this somehow! Cuz we're amerikahaaaahaha oh god -sob/sniff- heh-heh no really...I'm just so embarrassed for you...

But I digress: We saw what adding Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers (instantly) did for that so-so defense, and Grant Delpitt is that kind of player, or even better.

Dan Justik says that the Browns have a slight edge in the Jadeveon Clowney sweepsakes, as he and Myles Garrett have the same agent.

I'm sure that Bus Cook appreciates Dan and other pundits for doing his job for him by projecting a 25 mil/year record-setting deal right off his 6-game suspension.

Good grief: Khalil Mack has a balloon payment 26.6 mil cap hit for 2020 (nice job Bearss Mayock), but this is an outlier.

That is a historically dumb contract, akin to (oh, I don't know) trading away half a draft class to move up to draft Mitch Trubiski second overall, maybe?

(Note: You people check out Da Bearss last few offseasons and tell me Andrew Berry is a dumbass!)

Anyway, agents want you to think that dumbassitude is irrelevant, but in the real world it matters.  If you were looking to buy a house, and some idiot paid 30% over market for one 6 doors down, that means you have to overpay too?

Look around at the other people looking at that house.  It's a reverse intelligence test, you see?  Somebody might pay an extra 5% or so, but nobody will get close to the money the moron paid (and you're all going to egg and TP his house tomorrow night btw).

DeMarcus Lawrence got 21.9 mil in 2020 and then incremental raises (as his guarantees drop) until he makes 26 mil (5 mil guaranteed) in 2023.

Myles Garrett can expect more than that.  Despite his suspension, he's better than Lawrence.

But the Browns are negotiating 2 years before they have to.  They could just ride out his 2020 salary and 2021 option and then even franchise tag him.  The early renegotiation represents a big fat raise right tf now, along with security (against carreer-ending injuries, for example).

The contract might actually even pay 25 mil in 2020 (all guaranteed), but then decline, and average out to 5% over Lawrence's over time; maybe 23 mil/year.

It could also be less, as Andrew Berry will be pointing at the inevitable shrinkage of the salary cap in 2021 after the damage from the Covid 19 anti-Trump hysteria deadly pandemic oh the humanity BS wrecks NFL revenues along with the rest of the economy in 2020.

I'm not sure how that influences these negotiations, though:  Bus Cook could say "ok.  We'll just wait for the cap to bounce back in '22"...noo...I think that with the up-front raise and security issues factored in, the Browns have more leverage with an intelligent player.

Also, Myles Garrett wants to win championships, and he finds himself surrounded by young and ascending talent, and opposite an eventual Aaron Rodgers type Quarterback (roll your eyes all you want just remember I said it a couple years from now).

Myles might have dreams of other teams he likes better, but can't control any of that, and for now is locked in here for 2 more seasons.  If he has faith in Mayfield and Stefanski, he will want to stay here.

Baker Mayfield and Denzel Ward enter their third seasons, and both have 5th year club options which would be excersized after 2020.  This would lock them up through 2022, but wow...

If when the cap shrinks in 2021, it's going to make a mess.  Most teams will be in real trouble, and it rolls downhill.

Ultimately, free agents will take one-year deals just to keep playing, and guys like Mayfield and Ward will just play out their hands and back up their Brinks trucks in 2022 (dammit).

That's why locking Garrett up now is probably a good idea for both parties.

Sorry I got all business analytical-like there, but it's important, especially here, where this business analytics pioneer named Paul DePodesta is the Chief STRATEGY Officer.

Thanks to DePodesta, the Cleveland Browns will do at least as well as any other team when the cap shrinks.

Ok I'm sorry but I have to stay in the weeds here this matters, you people:

The market will be flooded with free agents, including a lot more high profile guys like Hooper and Conklin.  A guy like Jadeveon Clowney is asking 13 mil for one season.  Sendejo and Joseph would have accepted league minimum salaries.

Nobody would have offered Schobert 11 mil, and he might possibly be retained.  Guys like Everson Griffen would already have signed for 1 year and 6 mil.  Every holdout gets a middle finger.  Trades get creative; more player-for-player with cash changing hands and team-freindy extentions.

Obviously, the teams with the most draft picks are the best off, and the oldest (and often the best) teams are in the biggest trouble.

DePodesta will thrive in this post-apocolyptic chaos...

Back to 2020: MKC says Jarvis Landry is an adult, and won't rush back from his surgery like a lot of guys do.

The fact is, the longer Jarvis takes to get back on the field, the better.  Landry is money in the bank, and doesn't need reps with Baker Mayfield.  OBJ and a BUNCH of young WRs need all the reps they can get.

Everybody is making a big deal out of the Browns' new fullback Andy Janovich, and it kind of drives me nuts:

The QB and offensive line total 6 players, leaving 5 slots.  Not 7.  Not 6.  FIVE slots.

Ok well if you field 2 Tight Ends, you only have 3 slots left, and I feel confident that a Running Back is one of these, leaving 2 slots.

Landry/OBJ?  Makes sense.  Or park one of them on the bench to use Janovich?  Well...instead of Hunt?  Hmm...Janovich or Hunt...Hunt or Janovich...somebody got a quarter or some dice?

Oh I get it! You platoon Chubb and Hunt so you can get Janovich on the field more!  Or else only use one Tight End more (and 3 running backs).

As I've said, Janovich won't play much beyond 3rd and shorts until Kareem Hunt is off the team.

DUH.

*I still hope that Kareem Hunt will somehow get turned into a high draft pick before the season starts: He's awesome short-term but can't be a core player here.  The player you draft with the pick you get for him can be, and that's how you sustain success*

An OBJ trade isn't dead yet either, by the way.

You people need to excuse me for following my emotions back to Jadeveon Clowney here again:

I'm prejudiced in favor of long-term contracts for young players whenever possible, as this is how you sustain a core.  Clowney is under duress now due to his mediocre 2019 performance, the fact that he has never had double-digit sacks, his (overinflated) injury history, and the very fact that no NFL team has been willing to sign him long-term.

In re the latter, there are 2 sides to that: Clowney himself may have nixed longer-term deals, as he kept expecting to cash in on 13 or so sacks off each one-year deal.

He can't keep doing that.  He had a great chance with the Seahawks, but he got a core muscle injury and played with it.  

He still played very well per PFF, if you're not fixated on sacks and aren't a dumbass.  With his muscle injuries repaired, Clowney at 27 should be fine.

Looking ahead to a diminished cap in 2021, Clowney is under pressure to sign for at least 2 years right now, and take less money than he wants.

If he signs for one year, he's a free agent just when the cap crashes.  If he doesn't sign very, very soon, he's going to make peanuts or retire early.

DePoBerry could offer him 3 years and guarantee all of 15.5 mil in 2020, then---nevermind but shrink the base and guarantees but offer performance incentives and stuff.

Tough call: He's 30 when it's over--he'd rather be 29 with more leverage.  But what if he never gets 10 sacks?  What if he gets hurt again (and worse)?  How much does winning matter?  

Sorry again but anyway Jadeveon Clowney is, and always has been, terrific vs the pass and the run, and even in coverage for that matter.  He could absolutely bookend Myles Garrett and give Joe Woods lots more options schematically.

...or Griffen and Matthews would work fine too.  

Those are the 2 best replacements for Pegleg Vernon.

I'll mercifully end this soon, but before I do, I need to revisit my Mayfield/Rodgers comparison again:

I've heard rumors (from legit sources) that Rodgers deviated from Matt LaFluer's "script" quite a bit in 2019; not throwing to his predesignated targets, and improvising too much in this timing offense.

Both LaFluer and Rodgers deny the rumors of conflict between them, and I kinda buy that, but Aaron Rodgers is not a "system" Quarterback, and Baker Mayfield is just like him.

Rodgers has been around long enough to stand up for himself, whereas Mayfield still has a lot to prove, but the message for both is the same:

"Let ME decide who to throw to as the play unfolds.  Don't tell me to target OBJ when I see him covered before the snap, or despite that.  Let me fkng figure it out for myself (but thanks for the timing routes so I know where to look)"

Russell Wilson is kinda like that, and Drew Brees I think.  DeShaun Jackson maybe.  But Baker Mayfield belongs right there with Aaron Rodgers, if you just let him be him.

Stay tuned.

I HAVE SPOKEN

2020 Browns Stacked with Freaks, Free Agent Options, KhaDarel Hodge, and the Browns. And Stuff.

As Elliott Kennel points out in a great article, the Browns have a bunch of freakily athletic players.

I knew about most of those guys, but seem to have missed the boat on KahDarel Hodge and DJ Montgomery.

Hodge was a Highschool Quarterback who had to convert to WR in college.  He played for a small school.  He hung on last season as a waived ODFA rookie based on his outstanding special teams play (and surprising preseason performance).

I had no idea Hodge was as fast or explosive as Elliott shows he is, but did know that he's 6'2" and over 200 lbs (he's an outside receiver and a deep threat).

Elliott lists Rodney Ratleyfield as one of these freaks too, and as you guys know, I've been telling everybody Damion has an astronomical cieling...but Elliott kinda slapped me awake with Hodge.

I haven't been objective at all, as I've been waving the pompoms for Ratley and just ignoring Hodge, who has comparable athletic traits, and apparently better hands.

DJ Montgomery is a freak too, but has less going for him than the other guys (Zierlein was really harsh on the kid).  Thanks to Elliott Kennel, I stand corrected, and am more on the Hodge wagon than the Ratley wagon now.

This is a guy who went to Alcorn State as a Quarterback, and had to give that up and start over as a Wide Receiver at the lowest level of competition.  Because he only got good at it in his final season at a small college (48 catches for 844 yards), he got overlooked by everybody including me (stoopid-stoopid-stoopid)--

Hodge enters his third NFL season, and is still in his early developmental window.  He could surprise a lot of people this year.  Maybe.

Everybody knows about Donovan Peoples-Jones, but Elliott does a much better job than non-mes of pointing out his potential issues.

In a nutshell, he hasn't proven he can win on contested catches, like Rashard Higgins has.

I love that Elliott said that if Peoples-Jones doesn't look like a good WR prospect, let's give him to Joe Woods and see if he can play in the secondary.  That's Belichickian there!  And it makes a ton of sense, as Peoples-Jones projects to be a Hodge-like Special Teams player, and you don't have to rush those guys.

Not to get too deep into that, but this guy is very smart, and the mental part of this transition wouldn't be a problem for him, and he'd be a better safety than corner.

Now: THANK YOU ELLIOTT for being the only other fan in Cleveland who takes TJ Hassel seriously.  

Hassel (5'11", 205 lbs) played linebacker in college, but obviously projects as a SS in the NFL.

Gregg Williams was interested in making Hassel a Safetybacker.

Verily, missing most of one hand is a lot to overcome for a guy who needs to fight for balls and try to intercept passes.  It's also tougher to get off blocks when you can't yank guys off-balance with one hand--

But Hassel did what he did!  He averaged over ten tackles per-GAME, ok?  He's almost as fast as Denzel Ward, for cryin out loud!

And Elliott is the second person in Cleveland (better late than never blush-blush) to suggest using Hassel or somebody like him to "spy" Lamar Jackson.  And Elliott is right: a fast guy is a much better Jackson-spy than a 4.72 linebacker (seriously, Lamar Jackson was the biggest single reason why Joe Schobert almost led the NFL in blown tackles (and lost cleats) again in 2019--what are these guys thinking?)

I hope Joe Woods is as smart as Elliott and me!

Elliott makes some comments about the final roster, including that given this Stefanski offense, it wil be tough to justify more than 5 Wide Receivers.

Well, if Kareem Hunt isn't traded before the season, it might be tough to justify more than FOUR WRs--but since Peoples-Jones and Hodge are both core Special Teamers, they probably keep Higgins or Ratley too.

Hassel, by the way, is also a core Special Teamer.

Chad Porto wrote a highly correctable article on 3 free agents the Browns should consider:

Mante T'eo makes sense if he's dirt-cheap and not guaranteed.  Chad's logic here was perfect.?

Domata Peko--a 35 year old Nose Tackle?

Here, Chad knocks Sheldon Richardson again.  He doesn't agree with PFF or everybody else that Sheldon Richardson is a terrific defensive lineman which...is...well, obvious.

Chad does think Larry Ogunjobi is a great player, despite the fact that Richardson has played a lot better...I don't get Chad sometimes.  He still thinks they should have paid Schobert 11 mil/year too...

Anyway Chad also completely ignores Jordan Elliott, who the Browns just drafted.  He is one of FOUR DTs already on the roster, and there are five more behind them who might be better than Gramps Peko.

Terrell Suggs?

Well actually thaf's interesting, if Terrell would accept an incentive-oriented cheap one year contract.

But Chad...wow 4-3 OLB?  Comparing him to Matthews?

Too many corrections to make here:

Suggs is 37, and was never a true linebacker.  He's a classic LB/DE 'tweener who fit a unique role in the Ravens' defense perfectly.

At 37, he can no longer run around in coverage, but can probably attack the QB if you don't make him play the whole game.  He is not as fast, or as agile, or as quick as he used to be, and wow.  Chad had a bad day here!

But T'eo and Suggs are very interesting one year bandaid prospects.

Should the Browns trade a first and third round pick for Jamal Adams?

No.

Who will be the Browns starting Quarterback?

Hmmmm....

Steven Kubitza warns that the Browns could lose 100 mil in 2020 due to the hyperbolic Covid 19 mass-hysteria police state test-run.

What's more relevant to actual fans is what Pat Kirwan said months ago:  The lost revenues in 2020 will SHRINK the salary cap in 2021.

😜 count on Paul DePodesta to make the most of this.

Okbye

Building/Maintaining a Contender: Business Analytics and the Cleveland Browns. And Clay Matthews III and Stuff

It's not often that Pete Smith is wrong, but he is when it comes to the Browns potentially trading for Jamal Adams.

Everything Pete says about how versatile and excellent Adams is is no doubt true, but when it comes to compensation, it gets more complicated:

Adams will take this opportunity to renegotiate.  As Pete says, Adams is scheduled to make 3.6 mil this season and 9.5 mil in 2021.  He is "underpaid", and could well muck up a trade by demanding a raise.

Pete is also implicitly kicking Redwine to the curb, and foreclosing on Joseph's future here.

But the worst part is, Pete is all set to trade a first round pick and then some (he mentioned the OBJ trade OMFG) for Jamal Adams.

Oh hell no!

Pete's got the X's and O's and player analysis down pat, but probably shouldn't be allowed near a front office:

Here Pete wants to trade a cheap 4-5 year first round draft pick, plus maybe a third, for a guy who will (best case) demand the stars and the moon after 2021.  

He is spending a lot more money in 2021 for the one player instead of the two kids, and is getting Berry into cap hell as of 2022.

Meanwhile the two younger players will be somewhere else; ie the roster will be older, and have less developmental talent.  That's not how you build or sustain a perennial contender.

Thomas Moore quotes Nick Snook again (who in turn uses Next Gen Stats):  Nick says that Myles Garrett was the most disruptive player in the NFL in 2019.

He hurried or sacked QBs, stuffed runners etc almost one out of every 5 downs.

But interestingly, per a commenter (this one was sentient), Adrian Calyborne ranked 9th on that list!  I'm coloring that true for now--people don't just make stuff like that up.

When Berry signed Clayborne, I couldn't understand why.

Pff graded him 76.6 as a passrusher in 2019, and he was over 80 in 2018.  These are very good.  (He was 57.2 vs the run, which is mediocre).

Looks like I was wrong again: Adrian Clayborne should be a pretty good one-year bandaid as edge-depth.

Another guy  want to take another look at is Chad Thomas, who got bad grades from PFF (horrible vs the run, meh vs the pass) in 2019, but he's only entering his third season, and could make a leap.

Thomas had all the tools coming out of college, and mainly needed coaching.  He's another guy who might lack dedication to football, as he's big into music.  That's why scouts said that he would be a very good football player or a bust.

I won't make any predictions here, but just saying he might emerge in 2020 (or might get cut).

Andrew Berry is saying that Olivier Vernon is a key to the 2020 defense and all that, and good for him not "shading" one of his players.  I'm telling you, there is no way that Berry isn't trying to replace Vernon.

He has missed almost half his games over the last 2 seasons, and no reasonable person would count on that not happening yet again as he turns 30 in October.

Nor, in the real world, do GMs just assume that a player returning from the latest of a series of injuries will ever be as good as he was again.  (He can have a great attitude and work hard and be a leader blahblah but he can't regenerate cartilege).

I'm thinking Everson Griffen, although I personally agree with Joe Thomas that Clowney could potentially "take care of" one DE spot for multiple years if his price comes down.

The injury issue with Clowney is overinflated; he has started over 80% of his games, and for that matter played hurt through 2019 (like OBJ).

His lack of sack production has obviously been disappointing for a 1st overall draft pick, but then that's biggest reason why he'll have to accept less money, once the market brings him back down to Earth.

For us unwarshed masses, if you can get a Clowney for what you pay Vernon, that's a no-brainer.  Does anybody disagree with that?

If you sign Griffen or -gulp- stick with Vernon, you need to draft a DE in 2021.  If you sign Clowney (for a few years) you probably don't.

Joe Woods, you people need to comprehend, has a brain of his own, and (hopefully) isn't a "desciple" of Pete Carroll or Saleh.  However, Salah ran a 4-3 over defense in San Fran last season, and the Browns have most of the guys they need to run that here.

Actually screw the under/over stuff, and Carroll ran more under anyway--Robert Saleh used a "wide 9" DE last season who lined up right in the Tight End's face, while the other (big/strong) DE was on a Tackle.

This allowed the DEs to set the edge on runs; both DEs could stand up to their respective blockers vs the run, and also beat them (in different ways) vs the pass.

Clowney would be perfect for the Wide 9 DE in this scheme.  He could mug the TE in space, and sometimes actually cover him while a smaller person blitzes.  Griffen can't do that stuff.

Interestingly, Olivier Vernon shares this ability with Clowney...or used to...when healthy...except Clowney is taller, longer, and faster...nevermind...

As for under/over, Saleh did both: His 3-tech DT attacked from both sides of the center.  I assume it had to do with individual matchups and offensive tendancies.

If Joe Woods is like that, he'll be using Richardson, Ogunjobi, and Gregory fairly evenly,  and...

Ok well look at the 2020 Browns RG situation: Whoever wins the start is probably the weakest link on the offensive line, see?  So Woods would run more "over" vs that line, to pit his quick penetrator vs that Right Guard. (This puts Billings or Ogunjobi a little to the center's left usually.)  

And then, if that RG is Teller, then Richardson or Ogunjobi are the right guys--but vs Forbes, it should be more Gregory.

But as you know, the "base" defense is obsolete, and defenses now run 6-man fronts 2/3rds of the time.

As things stand, this is indeed a 4-2 for the 2020 Browns, but this could change.

Joe Woods said he would run a "four-three" base defense.  I speak english, so I can translate this for you people:  Joe will run a 4-3 around 33% of the time.

Joe didn't say anything about his nickel or dime fronts, and (just to be helpful here) is a different person than Steve Wilks or Gregg Williams, ok?

If you retain Vernon or sign Clowney, you might see some 3-3's.  If you replace Vernon with Griffen, that's more 4-2's.  If you cut Vernon and sign Clay Matthews III, that's 3-3.  If you replace Vernon with Griffen and Matthews (for about the same money, and Matthews for a few years), that's pretty much anything you want, ok?

I know that I've said all this before, but nobody gets it, so I'm compelled to say it again:

Edge-rushers come in different shapes and sizes, linebackers are linebackers, and good players are better than average players (it's not that complicated).

It's simpler, easier, and more easily comprehensible for clueless pundits if you can have 4 down linemen all the time OR 3 of those and 4 linebackers, but real Defensive Coordinators just want the most talented players they can get, and will tweak their scheme to use them if neccessary.

I would offer Clay III 15 mil over 3 years with a fully guaranteed 6 mil in 2020, and Everson Griffen 20 mil for 2 years with 9 of 11 mil guaranteed in 2020 and not more than 3 mil guaranteed in 2021, and release Vernon.

BOTH of these players would cost less than 2 mil more than Pegleg in 2020, and if you think that even matters, you are clueless.  EACH player is a likely upgrade over Vernon (no offense dude but they're durable ok?)

Now, for 2020 Joe Woods can do anything he wants, and for sure has "counterweights" for Myles Garrett. 4-2, 3-3, 3-4 or 4-3 who cares?

Both these players are getting old, but are partially redundant, plus one is a LB and the other a DE, so Woods could easily rotate them on and off the field (while driving offenses crazy) to keep  them fresh and healthy.

Each of these venerable players got 8 sacks in 2019.  Both are also good vs the run.  Clay III is also a real linebacker who can line up anywhere and cover as well.

I reminisced about Clay's dad awhile back.  I distinctly remember telling everybody that the Browns needed to let him go when his contract expired, and he was younger than Clay III is now.

Clay Jr played for NINETEEN seasons!!!  Clay III is valued like everybody else his age (CHEAP), and is only merely a linebacker.

Well anyhow dump Pegleg and sign Griffen and Matthews I HAVE SPOKEN okbye

Deep Dearth of Depth Echohallucinations and the 2020 Cleveland Browns and Stuff

Time and the salary cap force all teams to make tough decisions on who to trade or release, and Greg Newland lists 3 possibles for 2021 season.

You're sick of hearing OBJ from me, but Greg agrees.  He thinks that either OBJ or Jarvis Landry will be leaving after 2020, and OBJ has more trade value.

Beckham's getting injured again as usual would undermine that value further, but Berry may need to take what he can get---Jarvis Landry is much more reliable, and most Coaches want to hold onto guys like that.

Greg's point here is the cap savings, but I have to add (yet again):

Baker Mayfield doesn't need a superstar WR, unless he's a Josh Gordon type (which all Quarterbacks want).  Higgins, Ratley, or Peoples-Jones could prosper as OBJ's replacement in this offense, with this Quarterback.

Sheldon Richardson is next.  If not injured, Richardson will become too expensive to extend, and letting him go would save 12 mil in cap space.

Andrew Billings and Jordan Elliott are both top players, and Ogunjobi and Billings should be more affordable.

Chris Hubbard is an astute pick by Newland here, as he might have some trade value, and (unless he were to step in at RG), would be a third wheel if Jedrick Wills does the obvious and kicks ass at LT from day 1.

Kareem Hunt and Olivier Vernon will also be leaving.

Along with Sedejo, most likely, this is a ton of money the Browns will get back by 2021, along with maybe a couple more draft picks.

Newland is right that right now would be a wise time to extend Myles Garrett (off his suspension) before his market price goes through the roof.  Ogunjobi and Billings are a couple other guys they'll need to look at extending.

Disruptive Defensive Tackles are in high demand vs modern offenses.  Everyone knows that, but many don't get that big run-stuffers can get them off the field while they stop the run.  It's dumb to underpay these rotational guys.

Opposing defenses ran all over the Browns last season in no small part because Richardson and Ogunjobi are under 305 lbs, and played too many snaps.  Of course they got shoved around and wore down!

And as they wore down, they became less effective vs the pass, as well.

Rodney Wilsonfield has put together a highlight tape of his rookie 2019 season.  In reality, it was nothing special, which is why all the other pundits have decided he needs to be relaced for a couple more years or something.

PFF graded Wilson 41.6 overall and under 45 at everything except passrushing (60.3: average). While I can't get at his weekly grades, I did check out his stats.

I compared his first 4 games to his last 4.  He improved in tackles and solo tackles, plus got his lone interception in the last quarter. He had 9 tackles (6 solo, 2 stuffs) in the finale vs Cinci.

He was getting the hang of it late in the season, which should surprise no one.

Linebacker isn't the easiest position to master coming out of college, so Mack Wilson's first 12 games don't mean nearly as much as his last 4.

I can understand why Memorex Morons already have Mack in a pine box and half-buried, but not why they lump Sheldrick Redwine in with him, as he graded out as well above average in everything except run defense (54.3--kinda low average).

His sample size was adequate, as he played 356 snaps.

Redwine was a late riser at "the U" of Miami, showing much improvement from his first to final season as a starter at safety (after converting from cornerback).

Sheldrick Redwine is coming back in 2020 intending to remain the starter at Strong Safety.  Veteran former first round pick Carl Joseph gets to vote on that.  But regardless of who wins that battle, DEPTH at Safety is much better than some MM's to this day think it is.

I expect Joseph to start, but Redwine will play quite a bit situationally. 

Poor Joe Woods!  He has to find ways to get Delpit and Sendejo on the field as well!  (PS JT Hassel--lobster-claw and all--is really underrated, and has a good shot at hanging on: He's a Safetybacker with CB speed, and must be a core special teamer.  If he had two good hands, you would know who I'm talking about.)

The echo-chamber says that TJ Carrie will be missed...so I guess the verdict is in on Kevin Johnson as the nickel corner (not to mention 2019 draft pick Donnie "DOA" Lewis and AJ Green too (*Green can match up with bigger slot guys*).

...but Terrence Mitchell is as good as gone no matter what...and yes: I actually read some guy who gets paid to write declare that the 2020 Browns lack depth at CORNERBACK you know...

Nothing is too dumb for the lowest common denominator:  If it can be said, somebody will say it.

And get paid to say it...ohhmmmm....ohhmmmmm...

Linebacker doesn't lack depth either.  You don't need superstar linebackers, or Schobert-like "Field Generals" in most schemes.

Who told you you did?  Oh. Yeah. Nevermind.

Well I already mentioned Wilson.  I like Phillips a lot too in the narrow role I expect Joe Woods to put him in, and Takitaki as well, in his somewhat different role (Mack Wilson is the most well-rounded swiss army Linebacker)...

Ah screw it watch and learn okbye

Changing of the Guard, Stuporstition, Ascending vs Fading, Browns vs Steelers, and Reality

Speaking of young guys with high cielings, Elliott Kennel thinks UDFA offensive tackle Alex Taylor has a shot to make the final roster in 2020 so they need to sign the venerable Gramps Peters ASAP.

...that was sarcasm (sigh).  Taylor is a skyscraper at 6'9" (36" arms), so anybody trying to run around him should pack a lunch.

He's a superior athlete who started in college on a basketball scholarship, and he was remarkably fast (5.1 40) for his height at the combine.

Alex went undrafted partly because some question his love of/commitment to football, but there are other reasons too:

He's too tall, and every defender he faces will be "under his pads" with a leverage advantage.

Callahan could train him to crouch a lot, refine his punch/keep them off his body, etc.  Hans and Franz can pump him up from his skinny 310 lbs.  With his natural agility, balance, and coordination, this is one skyscraper who could overcome the leverage issue.

...and he could easily get up over 340 lbs.  At that point, he could face-plant any edge-rusher who tried to get low and bend the edge around him.

Taylor has the agility and speed to block in space, and his length would be a great asset there, where he could reach out and shove guys off-balance with impunity (basketball star, remember?)

Elliott sees Kendall Lamm as Taylor's biggest obstacle, but I'm not so sure about that, as Chris Hubbard was re-signed as a utility guy (including swing-tackle).

It's not always about right now, who is slightly better among backups.  If Taylor looks like he could tread water in an emergency, he could displace Kendall Lamm even though Lamm is the better player.

Taylor's cieling is much higher, and his salary is 2.5 mil lower.

That's why the sarcastic remark about signing Jason Peters.  When a team is that extreme about nownownow, they never have any young ascending depth.

Right now, the Browns' top 6 offensive linemen will be the starters and Hubbard.  An interior lineman who can play center would be 7th, and I believe that has to be Nick Harris.

The team could actually risk going with those 7, as Hubbard has and can play everywhere except center.

Most teams activate 8, and some 9 on game day, but if the 8th or 9th guy gets on the field as anything other than a blocking Tight End, that team is in trouble.

...and you don't pay 2.5 mil more for Kendall Lamm if an Alex Taylor will do.

The guys on Yahoo Sports expect the Browns' skill players to be underpriced in Fantasy Football, and so do I.

The oddsmakers are projecting the Browns to finish 3rd in the AFC North behind the Ravens and Steelers.

Well, why not?  The legendary and immortal Big Ben will come roaring back to dominate the Browns like he always has!  Why--he might be even better than he was at 37 after a year off!

Seriously, the Steelers are loaded at Wide Receiver (4-deep) and added TE Eric Ebron.

Their offensive line is almost as good as the Browns' too, and their running backs are above adequate!

Yeah I know: On paper the Browns have more/better Tight Ends and running backs, but clearly Baker Mayfied vs Ben Roethsenberger aint even close, right?

Wrong.  I won't repeat my last post here, but Big Ben is more likely than not to decline in his decrepitude, and Mayfield will be better than he was in 2018.

The Steelers' defense will have to stop Nick Chubb (and Hunt) before they can get heat on Mayfield, and they won't.

The Steelers have a lot of talent on defense, especially at linebacker with Devin Bush, TJ Watt, and Bud Dupree.  Then there are Cam Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Gramps Haden, and Tuitt.

The Steelers still run a true 3-4.  Bud Dupree and TJ Watt are 269 and 254 lbs respectively, and as much Defensive Ends as linebackers.

Their primary jobs are passrushing and containment.  Inside 'backers Vince Williams and Devin Bush are true full-spectrum linebackers--and Bush is a beast.

Stefanski's offense should keep the Steelers' base 3-4 on the field (by design).  There will be 2 (occasionally 3) Tight Ends and/or 2 Running Backs, and Stefanski isn't trying to outsmart everybody; he is going to run the ball!

So Dupree and Watt can't tee off on Mayfield, and have to focus on sealing the edge (their DEs are really DTs ok?)

They're quite good at this (especially Dupree), but it takes away what they do best, and keeps them on their heels.

And it's the Offensive Tackles who are aiming at them, see?  The Tackle on the "play side" (where the ball is going) is trying to get his head outside that defender's outside shoulder so that he can drive him downfield and buy the running back a clear path down the sideline.

It sounds like the faster, more agile defender can easily stay outside, but the blockers are moving forward as well as sideways, and have the advantage of knowing where they're going for the first 2 steps (long story just hang wit me).  

The defender can't keep retreating; he has to stop or re-direct the runner near the line of scrimmage, or he's just letting him rack up yards anyway, see?

He can sometimes beat the lumbering blocker to a spot where he can funnel the running back inside, but now the Tackle is going to try to blast him out of bounds instead.

Dupree can "anchor" and maybe hold his ground, but Watt can't.

Anyway the Browns' Offensive Tackles have the advantage and can beat the edge-setters down over the course of a game.

Fitzpatrick and Bush are better positioned and suited to track Chubb down in space, but at least one Tight End is out there, and sometimes the center, too.

It will be incredibly difficult to hold Nick Chubb under 5 yards on any one play in this scheme, with these blockers.

Baker Mayfield could even be as bad as the simpletonians think.  It wouldn't matter.

Oh--you think Big Ben would just score touchdowns at will and force Mayfield to come from behind right?

Get over it: Ebineezer Bell and Antonio Brown have left the building.

The 2020 Steelers can run a truly scary 3/4- wide, and Ebron is dangerous, but they don't have a Hunt or a Chubb, and the Browns just added Billings, Elliott, Phillips, and Joseph to help stop the run.

Keep Gramps behind the chains and on the scoreboard, and let's just see what this Browns' defense can do:

Expect Woods to man up outside, and for Ward and Williams to get the job done.  Make Ben hold the ball...

Anyway the 2020 Steelers are overrated and the 2020 Browns are underrated, and the Browns should finish ahead of the Steelers.

Because they are more talented.