This article on why the Browns should not draft Mitch Trubisky first overall makes some good points, but is still wrong.
The writer goes a little overboard in listing Mitch's mechanical flaws (even calling them "a mess"). He declares that Trubisky will never be able to take off and run with the ball in the NFL as he does in college.
CBS Sports's breakdown of Trubisky by Dane Brugler may be the source of this writer's analysis, as Dane cites some of these mechanical flaws "sometimes". But Dane's analysis was generally positive.
He reluctantly compared Mitch to Andy Dalton, except Mitch has a stronger arm and more upside. Meanwhile, some yokels are lobbying for the Browns to TRADE FOR Dalton's backup and make him an instastarter.
Finally (sigh) this writer declares that when you draft a quarterback first overall, he has to start right away. No. He. Doesn't.
Then, he declares that the Browns suck so bad that they'll probably draft in the top five again next season, and lists four or five quarterbacks who will come out next year in what for the moment looks like a very strong quarterback class.
The Browns have a lot of talent; especially young, emerging talent, and are NOT likely to draft in the top five next season.
Now, I myself cited a Numberfire article which used a sixty-quarterback database: Sixty pros, from elite passers to busts, and compared them to this class of quarterbacks. They did a great job in refining the data for each unique quarterback, and doing their best to find specific player comparisons.
Trubisky was, unfortunately, compared to Marc Sanchez, as it was hard for them to find another quarterback with such a low number of starts in college.
Indeed, Sachez's QBR was significantly higher. But Sanchez didn't have Trubisky's work ethic or dedication, and started as a rookie.
Numberfire's verdict was that this was a historicly bad quarterback class.
Fair enough. But stats aren't everything. Listen to what Hue Jackson says. He's not just running his mouth. He means it:
Hue isn't worried about a limited number of starts. He is only worried about "processing speed" and arm talent. If he has those two things, he can work with the guy.
Hue Jackson probably prefers a guy with less experience, because running another year of a college spread offense could ingrain bad habits. If you THINK about it, you'll understand that Hue just wants the lump of talented clay, as soft and pliable as he can get it.
In Hue's NFL camp, any rookie will learn Hue's PRO offense, instead of running around making half-field reads and improvising. He will run the scout team vs the first string defense, and run every pro offense in training.
He will be watched closely and corrected constantly. He'll play in preseason, and maybe in garbage time in his first season, but will be protected. He will be much more advanced than any quarterback drafted in 2018.
A couple more things: Trubisky's ability to throw all-arm and from different angles accurately is a rare asset. In this respect, he's like Mahomes. The difference is that Trubisky has demonstrated good field vision, makes a lot of line-calls, and has demonstrated an ability to function well in a pocket.
This is up to Hue Jackson. I don't know what he'll do, and Jimmy Garopollo might well be Plan A. But no, drafting Mitch Trubisky first overall isn't "dumb", if Hue says it isn't.
My inner analyst thinks so, which is cool, since my inner-fan wants the home-town boy to live his dream.
This just in: Doug Lesmerisis suggests that Mitch Trubisky might be the quarterback Hue and Sashi can agree on. He may be right, but the idea that Sashi considers himself as qualified as Jackson to make this call is laughable.
DePodesta might have stronger opinions, based on his numbers and historical data, but this will still be Hue's call.
Doug also makes a mistake when he sort of ...assumes, I guess, that Hue Jackson prioritizes size and arm strength, while Sashi prioritizes accuracy. Where did this come from?
When Hue mentions "arm talent" he, like all coaches, are talking about accuracy and touch, as well as the strength to fire into tight windows. And for Hue, accuracy was always number one.
As Hue has said, accuracy can be improved as throwing mechanics become consistent and correct, but only so much. Accuracy is largely enate; built in. An arm can be made stronger, touch can be enhanced with buckets and obstacles, but some guys are just born more accurate than others.
Lesmerisus does get to the heart of the Wentz matter: Carson Wentz wasn't as accurate as any of the top four quarterbacks in this draft.
The Browns were rumored to have preferred Goff. Those rumors were based on Goff's natural accuracy.
Patrick Mahomes is actually the most accurate passer in this draft, but Trubisky has the quicker release and better anticipation, which is why he's seen as much less risky. Mahomes could be a monster sleeper, but could also prove unable to adapt to the pros.
Full circle: Trubisky is a very talented lump of clay.
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