With the first overall pick probably meant for Myles Garrett (or somebody else's whole draft), the biggest two questions are who is the new quarterback, and what to do with 12th overall.
An analyst who probably moonlights as a US Congressman has decided that the Sith Lord could be persuaded to part with Jimmy G for merely that pick, the top second rounder, and all three second round picks in 2018 such a deal!
While the consensus among analysts is that this kid, unlike Ryan Mallett, is for real, I haven't heard a lot of Rodgers or Brady comparisons, and as far as I know he's not the one who won the last Superbowl.
The current draft class makes Jimmy look really good to desperate teams, and of course Lord Belichick probably did leak the first overall and another first rounder and then some rumor in person, but he knows better.
I can't believe none of these guys ever watched "American Pickers" or "Pawn Stars". Or went to a garage sale.
In my previous post, I detailed why and how Bill could retain Jimmy for an extra year (at significant expense), and he could very well have a fairly high bottom line price. In fact, if he's already made up his mind that Brady can't go much longer, Adam Shefter could be right (as usual how does he do it?): Not for sale at any price.
And there could be a bidding war. It could get rediculous, like it did between the Browns and Redskins over RG3 (thank God we lost).
But Sashi Brown isn't Mike Holmgren. He'll know when to quit. He might go up to number twelve, the top fourth round pick, and the first and last second round pick next season, which is a LOT dammit! But if some fool offers more, that's it, and good for you, Bill.
Two things make people irrational about this: One is the fact that Jimmy is NOT a "can't miss" franchise quarterback, and could even end up like, well, Andy Dalton. A lot of people are too starry-eyed to imagine this possibility.
The other is the FACT that Saint Thomas of Patriotus probably won't last over two more years, no matter what he just did, or what he says. I'm frankly amazed that I...and no doubt Bill...might be the only two people on Earth. (That's not a mistake. I wrote what I meant).
This deal is unlikely to happen.
If 12 is used to draft a quarterback, that quarterback should be expected to be better than Rodney Kesslerfield in 2018. Not neccessarily 2017. 2018.
Sashi is in a good place, in a way. Public misconceptions aside, he already has a competent quarterback who can win with a decent offense and average defense, and maybe even do more...if he's not knocked out again.
Also, more public misconceptions aside, nobody here is on the hot seat. Kyle Shanahan takes over another crappy team with an extra-long contract, but virtually everybody else IS on the hot seat.
All the teams at the top (except, in reality, the Browns) have multiple needs. They really DO need immediate impact players to show immediate results and keep their jobs. Nobody (except maybe Kyle) can afford to use their top ten draft pick on a quarterback who will either sit on the bench, or screw up bigtime if forced to play as a rookie.
This gets political, too. Fans are ignorant and impatient. Sometimes, owners are forced by public pressure to make Head Coaches play quarterbacks before they're ready. This happened to Jeff Fisher last year. Goff was even worse than the guys he replaced.
By the way, do you think Goff sucks now? Well, you would if he was a Brown.
Nobody wants to draft a quarterback who the next regime starts and wins with, either.
For these reasons, Trubisky or Watson could slide to twelve, and Mahomes farther. (Note: the teams near the bottom are contenders. They need immediate impact guys too.)
Now that I jumped off the Watson Bandwagon due to his 49 mph muzzle velocity, a bunch of the smart guys have jumped on it. It feels like they sent me on a snipe hunt and ditched me. Watson has overtaken Trubisky, and Trubisky is still sliding.
They cite all the same stuff I did when I was leading the charge: Two National Championship games vs Nick Saben, almost 900 yards, last second rally and win. His record. What he did to Ohio State. His experience, intelligence, and personality.
How can they ignore that PFF analysis of velocity (which, by the way, showed Kessler's at 55 mph)? Was he hurt? Do they think he'll do better with Hans and Franz or better mechanics? Does his film bely the test results?
Jim Miller says a quarterback absolutely can stengthen his throwing arm and throw harder/faster...maybe that's it? But the PFF study was pretty comprehensive and conclusive: None of their quarterbacks who threw softballs succeeded, early or late.
I might be TOO analytical here, because these guys are real experts.
Well...look at Watson's arms. He doesn't pump iron (yet). I do know a few things about torque and drive, but haven't seen the tapes these guys have. He might have an easily fixed lower body flaw they saw that I didn't. I don't know...but at least I admit it.
Ok I can't make myself jump back on the Watson Wagon again just yet. If Hue Jackson likes him that's fine with me. I remain a Trubisky guy, with a side of Mahomes, myself.
But they might not draft any quarterback at twelve.
Nick Dudokovich (Factory of Sadness) lists five quarterbacks the Browns might nab after round one. His top one is Mahomes (check/absolutely if he's still there duh), and I haven't checked out the others yet, but Nick is smart, so I'm sure he got Webb, Peterson, Kelly, and the rocket scientist Dobbs--or maybe Kaaya instead (Kaaya is very solid but not a lot of upside).
If that's the case, Sashi can land a stud non-quarterback of some sort at 12.
Any one of a half dozen players wouldn't bother me here, including an offensive tackle who might not even start in 2017, but would eventually replace Big Joe Thomas.
My current personal favorite, however, is tight end OJ Howard (TE Alabama)...if he's still there.
I'm a huge Gary Barnidge fan, but know how old he is, and a few other things about him his worshippers shouldn't read:
He's maxed out his physical tools as a receiver, and he's an indifferent blocker. That is, he is capable of being a good blocker, but doesn't work on it...or even care much. Because I love underdogs, and admire so much what he's done as a receiver, I still love the guy, but as-is, Hue can't use him the way he needs to use tight ends.
Gary has enabled defenders to blow up runs, and yielded pressures and sacks with false steps and bad reads. That's the truth, and there is no excuse.
OJ Howard is a decent blocker. He's picked at a lot by some analysts for technical flaws and a lack of aggression, but he's actually worked on his blocking, and takes it very seriously.
For whatever reason, in Kiffin's Alabama offense, he was never featured as a receiver, so he blocked a LOT.
I have the strong impression that OJ felt caged in and suppressed at Alabama. At the Senior Bowl, where most high-profile prospects don't even attend, and if they do just practice (for the exposure) but don't play (fearing injury), Howard was all-in, all the way, and was the star of the week and of the game.
Howard is 6'6", around 251, yet he clocked 6.86 in the three-cone and a 4.51 40.
Pat Kirwan compares OJ to Jordan Reed, but a better comparison is Kellen Winslow Jr (if Kellen could block in-line). I'm a geezer. Ozzie Newsome was shorter and smaller, and didn't block well either, but yeah--OJ is like him, too.
Howard is the best tight end in this draft by a significant margin. He's better than Jordan Reed, and Bucky Brooks isn't wrong to compare him to Gronk. He's not LIKE Gronk; he can't block as well, and isn't as huge, but he can be that good!
Some analysts question his love of football. That's important. Rang says he runs sloppy patterns, and isn't as nasty as he should be blocking.
Blocking aside, others (including Bucky Brooks) say he runs precise routes, and sometimes lowers his head and runs people over. He played for Alabama. He knows the whole route tree from Y and H.
Bucky is right: OJ Howard is ready to start immediately, and be a difference-maker.
Seth DeValve has a nice future in the NFL, but he's an H-back, and not a real tight end.
OJ Howard as a 2017 Cleveland Brown would be the centerpiece of the Browns passing attack, even if Josh Gordon does come back. Cody Kessler is at his best between the hashes, and OJ (unlike Barnidge) can take a point-blank dink pass to the house.
If OJ Howard is there at twelve, and it's not a quarterback, Howard is almost a no-brainer.
Garrett mitagates the urgently desperate need for a safety and cornerback, and in this particular draft, those positions can be addressed into the fourth round anyway.
Remember, if you will: The Browns drafted four wide receivers and DeValve in Sashi's first draft. Just now, he nabbed the best guard and center in free agency to elevate an offensive line that didn't suck in the first place.
Even the free agent center he grabbed from San Fransisco has a lot of starts and is versatile; the Browns now have FIVE centers, and almost as many guards and right tackles.
In the draft, beyond quarterback, I would have to guess that Sashi will be throwing defensive backs against the wall and seeing what sticks.
Believe it or not, the 2017 Browns will be releasing (and maybe trading) offensive linemen, edge-rushers, linebackers, and maybe wide receivers that other teams will gobble up like pihrannahs. But you don't see that. All you see is 1-15.
In this draft, Obi Melinfonwu is listed among the STRONG safeties, and as a second or third round pick. Trust me: Gregg Williams WANTS this freak, and doesn't care about the label.
That's the problem: In this scenario, the Browns probably draft a quarterback atop round 2, and Obi is gone before they get another shot at him.
It's ok though: Gregg Williams can scrape by on Myles Garrett and the bunch of losers he inherits, and maybe a low-round tall cornerback (you know sarcasm when you read it, right?)
No seriously: Rodney Kesslerfield is a good quarterback already, and has proven it. His 2.0 version will be better. Hue wanted him to be more aggressive, as he became a checkdown-charlie, but too much is made of this.
I'm telling you now: His arm is adequate. He can hit the out-routes on a rope. He WILL go deep. He did get timid and gun-shy as a rookie, but that is not who he is. He was thrown into the fire way ahead of schedule, and on-balance handled it well. Check out his yards per ATTEMPT.
I love Terrelle Pryor, too, but Kenny Britt will be where he's supposed to be when he's supposed to be there. Give Cody an OJ Howard, this upgraded offensive line, Gregg Williams with Myles Garrett, and just watch what happens.
Williams inherits lots of talent as-is, including at safety. I haven't given up on X Cooper, either: His first step really is exceptional. Myles Garrett next to him might help a little, no?
Oh no! If they draft Garrett, they might have to move Ogbah to the strong side! Waitaminnit...
What if they put Garrett on the strong side instead? You know, like Von Miller? Unthinkable, right?
What about Nassib? Well, he's no longer trying to prove he can be an outside linebacker in order to get drafted higher, and knows Gregg Williams is his new boss, so he's likely to come back at over 293 solid muscle lbs.
This fascinates me: Would a 293 or so Carl Nassib just back up both DE positions, or could he start as the 3-tech under-tackle in Williams's base defense? Or would Williams adapt his defense to keep this extremeley t a l e n t e d player on the field?
Well, Nassib's height is a big leverage disadvantage vs guards and centers, and he's by no means as explosively quick as your ideal under-tackle. He's not an inside penetrator, by any means, nor can he bull-rush...
But then, he does have a big reach advantage, and is much faster than virtually any defensive tackle. Think about him between Shelton and Ogbah or Garrett. Ever see the cartoon with the tall guy's hand on the short guy's forehead, and the short guy swinging and missing? That's Nassib vs a lot of guards and most centers.
He's NEVER double-teamed! He gets his hands on the guard and starts pushing him around immediately. A short slow fat guy can't apply leverage when a tall lean athlete is jacking him up onto his toes, ok? You might outweigh him by 50 lbs, but it doesn't matter on your tippy-toes, see?
Forget about driving him back on a run. Forget about holding your ground in pass-protection. Nassib can sieze and maintain leverage at the snap.
In 2014, I made fun of Mike Pettine talking about using Nassib inside. I take it back. I think I get it now.
But right now, I'm kind of reaching for stuff Gregg Williams might try to make the most of the underrated young inexperienced talent he has inherited.
Coming back out of the weeds here, the 2017 Browns defense should be at least average, and the Kessler-led offense could be explosive and scary, especially if they give Josh Gordon one more chance.
Which they will. Unless they're mentally challenged. Duh.
Just a note on the hypothetical trade for Kirk Cousins: Not without a long-term contract. Stop it!
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