Sunday, March 19, 2017

Cleveland Browns Poor Punditry Corrections

Mary Kay is not having a good year.  A reader asked her if she would prefer Jimmy Garopollo for 12, their top second round pick, and two second round picks next season, or Trubisky at 12, possibly with a trade-up.

MKC would prefer the former.  That's fine.  As I wrote in my last post, I find that price rediculous, but I can respect those who do not.

But she says that the reason is because the Browns don't have the luxury of the time it would take to groom Mitch Trubisky.  Later in her column, she restated the need for at least a second tier veteran quarterback who could start immediately, including AJ McCarron on that list.

First, Hue Jackson keeps repeating (because he knows the people standing right in front of him didn't hear him) that if a quarterback is protected, has reliable targets and a strong running game, and a defense that gets him decent field position and doesn't force him to try to score 36 points, he need not be elite to succeed.

Mary Kay is determined to replace Cody Kessler.  Hue Jackson is not.

Second, Jimmy Haslam has repeated to those who don't listen that he does not expect this massive project to succeed overnight, so this regime does have time.  

The Browns hideous 2016 season was not all on the quarterbacks.  It was mostly on the very inexperienced and injured defense, and the crippled, revolving door offensive line.

The progress this team will make in 2017 and beyond is already built in as Ogbah, Nassib, the Colemans, DeValve, Calhoun, Louis etc make their second year jumps, Haden and Bitonio return healthy, the new center and guard upgrade those two positions and depth, and (probably) Myles Garrett comes right into Gregg Williams new defense and starts wrecking opposing offenses.

If the Browns only won three or four games behind Cody Kessler or a guy named Joe while a Trubisky or somebody else is spritzed and watered on the bench, nobody will get fired.  If, in 2018, the new quarterback has growing pains and screws up, the team maturing should insure further progress anyway.

Those THREE second round picks represent a big part of that upgraded supporting cast which will make it much, much easier for any quarterback to succeed.

Look at Dak Prescott.  He really is a terrific quarterback, but look at his supporting cast.  If he had played for the 2016 Browns, do you think he could have done better than Kessler did?  If you compare their statistics, in context, that is unlikely!  (In context: Compare the two rosters.  Get it?)

Then, when another reader asked if Mary thought the Browns would give Josh Gordon another chance, she definitively said no.

I've addressed this at length.  My response is why the hell not?

Analytics are logical and rational.  Risk.  Reward.  Value.  Efficiency.  The risk is the last practice squad roster spot.  The potential reward is the best wide receiver in football.  The rest is garbage.

Personally, I would prefer Garopollo over a rookie for a MUCH more reasonable price, but Trubisky, throwing to Josh Gordon, and three more building blocks over the next two seasons works fine too.

Mary Kay, YOU STAND CORRECTED.


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