Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Cleveland Browns Quarterback Conundrum

The Browns have Brock Osweiler on the roster.  If they trade him, or release him, they can get out from under some of his rediculous salary, but...he's on the roster for now, right?

Well, Jim Miller says Brock Osweiler is the best quarterback on the Browns roster.  He's wrong, of course: Being 6'8" and having a big arm doesn't make you better than a decisive little sharpshooter like Kessler, but I get the big, strong-armed Miller's point.

So...Geno Smith now?  My God it never stops!  He's better than Osweiler how? Ok now you want to release Osweiler.  Somebody pays him 5 mil a year.  Then sign Smith for like 6 mil/year really?

Osweiler won't be released unless Hue Jackson has no hope for him.  Even stupid blabbermouth tweets from Browns staffers are presumptive on this point.  Brock is the bird in hand.  John Elway offered him 13 million to stick around.  He sucked in Houston, but was good in Denver T H I N K willya?

Plus, Geno Smith deserved his broken jaw!  I wonder if he ever did pay that guy back.  Probably not.  He might have matured and changed since then, but at that time he was despicable, and no doubt despised by his teammates.

At least all Osweiler did was get in a fight with his Head Coach!  Yeah ok I wonder about that, but he didn't break anything anyway, and I can't picture Hue Jackson duking it out with his quarterback (even though he sure looks like he could. I want to know where that scar came from.)

A veteran backup is desirable, but not mandatory.  And if the Browns do sign one, he should be better than Brock Osweiler.  This is common sense and basic arithmatic, ok?  T H I N K.

Now, I hope Bill will come down on Garopollo, because if he doesn't, no deal.  If he doesn't, it means more than everybody except me thinks.  It means he's preparing for Tom Brady's inevitable demise.  

In this scenario, Pat Kirwan would be surprised (no franchise tag).  Bill would put a first round tender on Jimmy.  The 2018 QB crop is expected to be abundant.  Teams would try to sign Garopollo, but think about this:

Would you rather have to pay your new quarterback 18 mil/year, or 6 mil/year?  Bill has the right to match any offer, and those offers would be lower due to the market.

Jacoby Brissett would have another year to develop, and Bill would have a better bead on him.  If Brissett looked good, Bill could cash out for a first round pick.  If not, he could at least keep Jimmy G a little cheaper by matching the highest offer in a depressed market.

Why would he do that?  Grow up.  Father Time is undefeated.  Tom Brady expects to play til he's 45, and a lot of people believe him.  Bill Belichick is not one of them.

And remember, you heard this here: Bill might even TRADE Tom Brady after 2018.  Spare me the pitch forks and burning stakes and straight jackets!  Bill loves Tom, but thinks with his brain.  I also think he'll want to erase any doubt: He wants to win a Superbowl without Tom Brady before he retires.

But I digress: Garopollo is iffy, and the Browns MUST find a franchise quarterback.

Greg Cosell thinks Mitch Trubisky can be a successful quarterback "in the right system" eventually, but not a franchise guy.  Deshaun Watson's alarmingly low velocity has forced me to jump off his bandwagon.  Kizer seems to be the consensus-best long-term physical talent.

Cosell seems utterly terrified by Mahomes, as despite his irrefutable talent, he is a wildman.  If he succeeds, it will take time and extensive re-training, and he still might not have the wiring to be an NFL quarterback.

Cosell likes Davis Webb (who Hue Jackson coached in the Senior Bowl) a lot.

Webb checks all the size and arm-strength boxes, along with the starting experience boxes.  Greg's knocks on him approximated those of the more athletic Trubisky: His lower body in general, and footwork in particular.

Mock drafts projecting Trubisky as available at 12 are optimistic.  Webb, on the other hand, should be available in the second, or even the third round.

Here's the biggest reason:  Trubisky has a much higher completion percentage and efficiency rating.  Webb completed around 62% of his passes, and did not show much progress over the course of his career.  He was steady, but did not "grow".

Of course, he started out at Texas A and M.  Injuries and Patrick Mahomes conspired to cost him his starting job.  With his degree in hand, he transferred to Cal, where he took over for Jared Goff, and proceeded to match or beat most of his records.

His 62% completion percentage didn't seem to trouble Greg Cosell.  This might have something to do with the fact that Cal's top SIX (6 VI) recievers from 2015 left the team.

Cosell is one expert, albeit a big one.  His opinion of Trubisky goes against the grain, as most give Mitch a much higher cieling.  His opinion on Webb is conversely extra-high.

Here's the upshot:  Hue Jackson coached Webb in the Senior Bowl.  He did great all week, and in the game.  He is the son of a highschool coach, and studies hard.

I strongly suspect that if Trubisky doesn't last to 12, and Hue doesn't love Kizer or Mahomes, Davis Webb will be the guy.  (Maybe even if they DO land Jimmy G!)

Mahomes isn't the longshot many think he is, either.  Hue Jackson's history as a college quarterback is apparently top secret for some reason, but I do know that he was a Josh Cribbs type scrambler and improviser.  He might well think that he could turn this "wildman" into something, in a way that nobody else could.

That's an educated guess: I don't know.

The reality is that unless Garopollo is landed, any drafted quarterback will be a project who will not start in 2017 at all.

Now: Everybody has decided that to trade down from Myles Garrett would be a lynchable offense.  I say that's idiocy.  

The Cleveland Browns are loaded with edge-rushers, including Ogbah, whose combine numbers aren't far off Garrett's.  Nor does Gregg Williams neccessarily rely on edge-pressure.  

Garrett is the best player in this draft.  But he's not sacred, or priceless, ok?  The obviously very pragmatic Sashi Brown could make a Belichickian killing here.

Lots of moving parts here: Kyle Shanahan in San Fran just signed Bryan Hoyer, and his contract clearly gives him abundant time.  He has the inside track on Kirk Cousins, who is on his second franchise deal, and has made no secret of his determination to get the hell out of Washington.

I do not believe he will draft Mitch Trubisky.  

Buffalo re-signed the great Tyrod Taylor.  The Bears or Jags might draft Trubisky, but maybe not.  Based on my latest research, Trubes is sliding.  He's being compared to Andy Dalton, albeit with more upside, and nobody expects him to be an effective starter in 2017.  These regimes are under pressure.

Once again, I default to the Tennessee Titans, who are on the verge of contention, and who don't mind doing deals, and for whome a Myles Garrett could win their division for them.

What might they cough up to move up four slots for Myles Garrett?  

Per the value chart courtesy of Walterfootball.com, first overall is worth 3,000 points, and fifth is worth 1,700.

This chart only covers the first round, and Walter Football synopsizes that a move from third overall to first overall costs a second and third round pick.

The second round pick in 2017 is a given here, but the Titans won't gut their whole draft, even for Myles Garrett.  Fortunately, Sashi Brown can wait.  He can settle for the Titans 2018 first and third round picks too.

If you would rather have Myles Garrett than maybe Mitch Trubisky and all this other stuff, you need to get the stars out of your eyes.  You don't build a team one player at a time.  You build it with a quarterback, and 2-5 players at a time.

...ok but I'll settle for just Myles Garrett if you twist my arm...

THIS JUST IN: Peter Smith scouted Mahomes and sold me on him again.  I'm so confused.  One thing I do know is that he's the most realistic target at twelve.

Peter is deep and thorough, as always.  Big Twelve quarterbacks have a poor history in the NFL, and so do those with losing records since John Elway.

But that's the thing here: Mahomes reminds me of John Elway!

The other thing here is that the quarterbacks who failed were generally rushed into action as rookies.  Elway sucked and was being called a bust as a rookie, for that matter.  Of the quarterbacks Pete listed, only John Elway was anything like Mahomes.  Only he could make all the throws this guy can.

And Peter GETS that the Browns won't be contenders in 2017 anyway, so it would make sense to keep Mahomes on the bench, doing millions of reps retraining his muscle memory and practicing pro reads, before putting him on the field.

Greg Cosell is right to be afraid of him, but damn...Elway...Hue Jackson...I'm on the Mahomes wagon and that's final until I change my mind again.

Another horrific mock draft drafts a receiver at twelve.  Yeah a really good one, but it's still insane.  Not the amazing tight end.  Not a Joe Thomas heir apparant.  Not a super-safety, or a quarterback.  A wide receiver.

James Wright was a great under-the-radar signing.  He's a fantastic special teamer.  Maybe they'll experiment with him in the secondary, as apparently he's not a good receiver, but has ideal physical tools.

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