Friday, March 31, 2017

Cleveland Browns Have Quarterbacks.

First, Thomas Moore revealed a shocking rumor: If Josh Gordon is retained and starts, Corey Coleman could be used as a slot receiver!

No honest!  It's true!  Who woulda thunk it?

I mean, I would have thought he'd be too quick, fast, explosive, and dangerous with the ball in his hands to play in the slot!  Next thing you know, they'll want to play smaller quicker cornerbacks over the slot guy or something!

Bucky Brooks keeps mock drafting running backs to the Browns at 12, but is otherwise pretty smart.  This is another former player who knows what he's talking about, except for that.

And he comes out and says the Browns don't need a quarterback.  He's kind of right, and he backs his assertions up with facts and logic.

I won't re-hash what I've said about Osweiler and Kessler, but suffice it so say Bucky says it too.

Only he has more insight than I do: He points out that Brock was essentially a one year college starter, and still has little starting experience.  He points to his particular college spread offense, and how it had a lot of West Coast elements to it.  That's NOT what O'Brien runs in Houston, but IS something Hue Jackson has and can run.

I hadn't known this before: Bucky considers Osweiler a West Coast type quarterback!  

He likes Kessler a lot too, and points out the new and improved offensive line.  He views Kessler as a West Coast type too (this I knew), but tossed in his injuries and arm (Brock is tougher and stronger).

I think my virus is spreading, as Bucky expects both quarterbacks to have learned from their respective experiences, and to (believe it or not) be better than they were last season!  

(Of course, in Kessler's case (92+ QBR) that could make him pretty damn good!)

Bucky also questions the whole "game manager" thing, as "game managers" win a lot of games with a little help.  He mentions Alex Smith: Game managers move the chains at critical moments.

Later in the same article, he expresses his doubts about Patrick Mahomes's ability to succeed in the NFL.  He talks about "wow" plays, which the ultra-gifted Mahomes makes, but this former defensive back points to overthrows and unwise throws that NFL defenders could punish...harshly.

Bucky respects game managers.  So do all defensive backs.  And passrushers.  He feels that Kessler and/or Osweiler under Hue Jackson might do just fine.  And he is RIGHT.

Where Bucky veers off is his premise/assumption that the Browns are looking at this draft to find a day one starter.  That's where his brain went right back inside the box.

I've known for several months that in this particular draft, the Browns quarterback of the future would be exactly that (as in not the quarterback of the PRESENT.)

ALL these guys (except, as I've mentioned, Pitt's Peterson), are projects.

Bucky seems to say that the Browns shouldn't draft a quarterback at all in 2017.  He might be thinking inside the box here, too: The mandatory old geezer veteran mentor taking up one active roster spot, right? No room for a third young guy anywhere, right?

For whatever reason Bucky wants the Browns not to draft a quarterback.  He's wrong.  

Most of you, like most pundits, are utterly befuddled about what Paul DePodesta really does, and where analytics ends and "old school" begins.  I told you, when they hired DePodesta, what he does for a living.  Nobody heard me.

Paul DePodesta is sort of an efficiency expert.  All you hear is "analytics" and "moneyball", but he's been a highly paid business consultant and lecturer for a long time.

You don't get it.  Bucky is right about these two young quarterbacks, and how a good team can win a lot with "game managers".

But if you look at the playoffs, let alone Superbowls,  you don't see game managers.  You see Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben, Ryan, Manning, etc.

These two guys are longshots to become that good (although they shouldn't be counted out).  "Analytics", if you need a buzzword, says you have to make the most of what you have, and you NEVER, EVER pass up a quarterback that you think might B E C O M E Brady, Rodgers, etc.

Smart opinions are all over the place on all these quarterbacks, but this class does not lack T A L E N T.  In fact, it has a LOT of talent!

With Hue still not responding to my texts and emails for some reason, I don't know what he's thinking, but I do know that he likes some of these quarterbacks.

At 12 overall, or 33 overall, or higher with a comparatively cheap trade-up, it's better than 50/50 he nabs a quarterback high in this draft.

HE, as in HUE.  Not Sashi, or Paul, or Jimmy.

Nobody gets this: Hue is the guy who said that a quarterback is as good as the players around him.  But he wants to win Superbowls.  He/they will keep looking for that E V E N T U A L elite quarterback in every draft class, and taking their shots in every draft, until they have him.

Bucky doesn't get this, for sure:  Bucky says they should build the "infrastructure" first, and THEN trade your whole draft and your first-born children to move UP for the latest annual Andrew Luck...

Trust me: To Paul DePodesta, this is insane.  He tries to approximate where the Browns will draft next season.  He reads reports on the upcoming awesome quarterback class, then looks at Kizer, and Watson's 49 mph velocity, and the heretofore non-existant Trubisky's number one ranking, and finds way, way, way too many variables.

DECIDE to wait for a likely franchise quarterback?  Avoid a guy who you (and Hue) figures has all the tools because he needs work?  Because he's not a sure thing?  

I suppose to really grasp this, you'd need to be a competent poker player. You can't keep folding, and waiting for the perfect hand.  You can't let your stack erode down til you have to go all-in with a pair of threes.  You can't keep expecting the next deal to be freindlier.  

In 2015, the 2016 draft class was expected to be a lot better than that crappy qb class.  Remember?

In 2015, Dallas drafted Dak Prescott in the 4th round (as a last resort).  Remember?

Paul DePodesta remembers.  

And listen to me here: Carson Wentz was NOT a top 20 quarterback. He probably WILL be one, with experience and some more help, but quit calling that trade-down a mistake.  

Some of those players haven't even been drafted yet! One is 12th overall!  Corey Coleman might be another Antonio Brown!  A quarterback drafted this season could be better than Wentz in three years, even if Rodney Kesslerfield isn't (STILL).

Anyway Bucky Brooks was mostly right: Rumors of Brock Osweiler's demise are premature, and Kessler never sucked in the first place.  Don't be stupid about Josh Gordon, and the 2017 Browns could get scary with these guys.

And Garrett.  Mmm, Garrett...

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