I'm glad some of what I've been posting here for weeks and months is just now beginning to dawn on other writers, like Steve Patsko, who advises us not to expect a Srefanski offense to use a third wide receiver very often.
In fact, he only went that way 18% of the time in 2019, as (see last post) he often fielded 2 backs and/or 2 te's.
Dalvin Cook is as good a pass-receiver as any running back can be, which is why he was the Vikings 3rd leading receiver.
Kyle Rudolph wasn't targeted a lot, but that's partly because he did a lot of pass-blocking in "max protect" alignments.
2nd round pick TE Irv Smith Jr is a Seth DeValve type; a terrific receiver, but lacking sufficient stature to be a very good in-line blocker...which sucked for Rudolph.
I didn't read the article which suggested that re-signing Kareem Hunt should not be a priority, but suppose I can deduce some of that writer's reasoning:
The off-the-field stuff is a concern, but the other side of that is that it will undermine his market value, making him more affordable for the Browns. He is not disruptive, and is a great teammate.
The fact that he is officially a running back, and we already have a "bellcow" in Nick Chubb, is...shallow.
And this brings me back to that third wide receiver thing that Mr. Patsko wrote about:
With the Vikings, Dalvin Cook lined up in the slot quite a bit. I'm not certain, but believe that because he has a "RB" in front of his name, the statisticians didn't list him as a third wide receiver on those plays.
Instead of 18%, the real (DePodestian) number of 3-wides might have been more like 30% (still much lower than the NFL average, I think).
Back to Kareem Hunt: Kareem Hunt is a deluxe option in the slot, or even wide (*some defenses will keep a ss or lb on him out there. It's still a mismatch in his favor, and pulls a run defender out of the box*).
I know that Paul DePodesta and Kevin Stefanski will agree that keeping Kareem Hunt should be a priority, because he's both a starter and an amazing utility guy and (oh yeah) a proven bellcow, should Chubb get hurt.
For DePodesta and I, signing Hunt for 3-4 years (with front-loaded guarantees of course) would make him highly tradeable.
Non-analysts tend to overlook this stuff, but for us, it's "do we let this guy go for nothing, or invest in him so if we need to we can turn him into a first round draft pick and then some in 2 or 3 years?"
Another writer expects Stefanski to carry a true fullback, and said that Kareem Hunt can't do what the bigger, slower guys can do.
Yes he can, like the much smaller Earnest Byner did: Lead-blocking fullbacks (especially in any Shanahan system) target safeties more often than linebackers, but Hunt has superior speed and maneuverability compared to the big slow guy. He can set up better angles, and hit guys sooner and with more momentum.
Kevin Stefanski will love the idea of starting Chubb, Hunt, Landry, and (in my opinion) Rodney Njokufield (*snap-snap wake up! Freddie Kitchens took his dog house with him---what tf do YOU have against the guy!?!*)
While you were dozing off, David Njoku actually became a decent in-line blocker, as well as a "move" tight end, and his "inconsistency" has something to do with the fact that tight ends in general were hardly targeted in 2019.
They were trying to force the ball to OBJ and run it; the tight ends were pulling run-stoppers outside or blocking!!!
I can't believe some of these clowns saying OBJ got "ignored" and stuff! I mean nothing is too idiotic: If it can be said, somebody will say it...another OJ juror heard from.
But I digress: Apparently my resume got misplaced, but if Jimmy finds it again and makes me the new GM, here is what I will do:
1: Nothing immediately, and keep my mouth shut...but make plans to
2: Release Hubbard, Kirksey, and Vernon to add over 26 mil to my salary cap.
3: Trade OBJ (I linked an article and listed a bunch of not unlikely options 3-4 posts ago: Some included tall, fast, proven plug-and-play veteran x-receivers and 2nd or 3rd round picks, and the rest all included 1st and 2nd or 3rd round picks. All the veteran receivers were on their first contracts too, so add at least another 10 mil (36 or so) to my cap-space).
4: Plan to extend Kareem Hunt. Start out by offering him as the 8th-highest RB salary, and be prepared to go 15% higher.
5: Re-sign Joe Schobert, if he will accept less than top 6 Inside linebacker money.
6: (Unless there's something I don't know about) offer Damarius Randall number 10 safety money.
*It's unlikely that I keep all these guys. If they want out, they can take less from a contender, and then I can't let other GMs force me to overpay*
*Let's assume here that by the 2020 draft, OBJ is now (throwing a dart) a lower third 1st and 3rd round pick, and no young veteran X-receivers. I now have over 80 million in cap-space.*
7: Be very careful in the first wave of free agency. The top players all get overpaid. Lord Insideous in New England rarely signs any of these guys, as the bidding gets insane.
...now, there are exceptions to this rule: This draft is stacked with offensive tackles, for example, see? Well, the veteran OTs and their agents get this, and know that the draft will undermine their salaries and prospects, so the smartest ones will take a few sheckles less to make sure they have a job.
8: Draft a LEFT Tackle 10th overall (*but be ready to trade down if my top guys slide and I can still land one however many slots lower I move*)
...ok you need to understand this: You have 3 guys you like at 10th. After the 9th pick, 2 of them are still there. Now, in a vacuum, you can move down one slot and still get one of these guys, see?
But you can move down more if you know for sure that your trade partner is going for a quarterback or something...it's not gambling, ok?
You can take a LEFT Tackle in this draft at that spot, because there are several of them, and also because in the offensive system you're going to run, you don't need a Joe Thomas.
9: Go more "best available" after that (*as Pat Kirwan explains, "best available" includes context: In most cases, your draft board lists a group of players you like at your given draft slot. You grade all these players about the same.)
So you take the one you need the most (unless some guy you don't need has slid so far you have to draft him).
Randall or no, safety is one position. EDGE is certainly another. OT remains another, but then guard too, and (now) WR. Or DT.
(*my premise has my OBJ trade yielding another first round pick. Well, that means that under the current CBA, that player is essentially locked up for 5 years instead of 4, at the team's discretion, see? And this matters.)
10: Post-draft, go after those veteran free agents who suddenly feel insecure and aren't as greedy anymore.
Lord Insideous is still the best example here: He plugs all his remaining roster holes. Jared Cook, Danny Amendola, Ben Watson, and lots of offensive and defensive linemen, for example (ps he later TRADES some of these guys...is any of this sinking in yet?)
11: Go bargain-hunting in the third wave flea market: You can find some dirt-cheap older guys here for depth and leadership, along with some younger specialists
*One of Belichick's biggest advantages is that he finds cheap young role-players, like a pass-rush specialist, or a pure run-stuffing DT, or a slot receiver or pass-catching RB, and says "do your job", right?
Edelman, White, and others started out with these niche roles, playing 4-12 snaps per-game in specific packages--as raw, unrefined, inexperienced players.*
If Jimmy Haslam finds my resume and hires me, I would emulate the "worst Head Coach ever" and find these "niche" players on day 3, among the undrafteds, and among the young veteran free agents to plug holes and spell my starters.
For example: A pure passrusher who sucks vs the run, or a run-stuffer period.
Danny Shelton is sorta one of these guys for Bill now. (He traded a 2019 3rd rounder for him, which was almost a 4th-rounder. Shelton was a 1st round pick with that extra year on his rookie contract.)
He's a 2-down player (run-stuffer) for Bill, but has significantly upgraded his defense vs the run; he does his job, and earns every penny.
Don't start this "aha! We got hosed!" BS, either:
Danny is now a free agent (hmmm....).
I'm not sure what the Browns did with the Patriots 3rd round pick they got for him, but know it was part of a trade-up. Possibly for Greedy Williams or Takitaki or Redwine or somebody, but check your snark and reflexive bashing ok?
...Danny Shelton is going to be very cheap, and if Jimmy hires me I will see if I can bring him back for the DT rotation (at least 30% of the snaps).
12 (overview): In general, as GM I would (privately) accept that the Ravens+new offensive and defensive systems here don't make 2020 a good year to mortgage our future on a Superbowl.
I would plan for 2021 (and beyond).
I'm not conceding 2020 here at all, as this team is very talented, and the Offensive system Stefanski brings in should be the Shanahan system.
But us analytical guys have this thing about reality, you see? We're not "rah-rah" types. We're pragmatic.
John Dorsey screwed up, ok? OBJ and Vernon were both injury-prone, Mayfield needed OBJ like he needed a hole in his head, why on Earth do you flush Genard Avery down the terlet, and where were Ogbah and Nassib when we needed them? Oh yeah and how bout what that Hubbard contract?
There's your "fudball guy"...
...Anyway as the Browns' GM I would be both sane and rational, and (above all) listen to Paul DePodesta.
You people: blaming Sashi Brown for 1-31 as if he ever had anything to do with picking players? Blaming "analytics" for Schobert, Ogunjobi, Garrett, Njoku, Peppers, Tretter, Zeitler, Higgins, DeValve, Hue Jackson...?
Watch the Superbowl. Compare each team to the Browns.
I know that sounds like a joke, but I'm serious. Mayfield in 2018 vs Garropolo now. Chubb/Hunt vs anybody in this game. Landry, Garrett, Ward, Tretter, Bitonio (Randall/Schobert etc) belong on this field.
Verily, the Browns have a "ways to go" to get there, but...
Hell with it they suck they're doomed game over we're all gonna die okbye
No comments:
Post a Comment