Saturday, January 25, 2020

Baker Mayfield in the Shanahan System; Garropolo, Mahomes...

I haven't checked out what John Kosko had to say about Mayfield, Mahomes, Garropolo, and the Chiefs and 49ers offensive systems, but I don't have to:

1: Baker Mayfield is more like Patrick Mahomes than he is like Jimmy Garropolo.

Mahomes excels at throwing off-platform and on the move--and is a real dual threat.

Baker Mayfield has the same traits, except Mahomes is like a shortstop, and a bigger dude.  No quarterback in the NFL can match Mahomes throwing off-platform and all-arm, but Mayfield at least comes close.

2: Garropolo isn't really as physically talented as these two, but is snug as a bug in a rug with the 49ers Defense and ball-control offensive system.

Mahomes and Mayfield can rally a team.  Jimmy G gets into more trouble.

*In 2018 Mayfield came from behind repeatedly.  He sputtered badly in 2019, but in year 3 it is rational to project a comeback; this is a common pattern with quarterbacks.  So shut up, bashers*

3: The 49ers Offensive system is better for Mayfield duh.  It's better for any quarterback...well sorta:

Jimmy G will never post gaudy numbers (be a top fantasy QB) in the Shanahan system, but he'll win a lot, and not get pounded into paste.

There are competing philosophies about this.  Most real experts say that if you have an exceptional quarterback with deep accuracy, you need to build around and use that.

These guys would put Baker Mayfield in the KC system.

It's a valid point.  I doubt that he would have matched Mahomes, but he would have had great success behind that Offensive Line and with those weapons.

Others (including most analytics guys and my humble DaVinci-like self) find the Shanahan system the most reliable and predictable (in terms of success) in football.

For us, the system trumps any one superstar player, and even if you have a stud Quarterback, you don't change the system.

Mayfield (in 2018) had great success with slants, crosses, dumpoffs, and seam throws to Tight ends.  I don't know where tf his touch went in 2019, but he can excel in this offensive system, like Kirk Cousins did under Stefanski (and Kubiak) in 2019.

Indeed, he can be better, as he's more athletic and can extend and salvage broken plays.

And that Vikings offense (vs the 49ers) is worth another look:  Kirk Cousins did go deep sometimes (mainly to Diggs, Rudolph, or their other young Tight End).

Cousins also came from behind a few times, including (emphatically) when he beat the Saints in overtime.

Looking back, John Elway racked up nice stats under Mike Shanahan (with Gary Kubiak backing him up).

If your Quarterback can do more, the system is easily "tweaked" to let him.

But it still protects him:

1: The zone run-blocking scheme takes a full second or longer for defenses to "read" between pass or run.  Nobody pulls.  The line never surges forward vertically.  It forces passrushers to either hesitate or gamble.

Defenses try to blow it up by shooting inside gaps on neutral downs, but that's dangerous as hell with a Mayfield or a Chubb/Hunt.

2: 21, 22, and 12 personnel are common.  That means that (except on 2nd or 3rd and very longs) there are rarely more than 2 WRs, and defenses have to match up with their bigger-but-slower packages.

In the modern NFL, the nickel cornerback is a super-fast/quick coverage guy who can blitze, and these sets keep that guy off the field.

The above are all "run" sets with extra running backs, tight ends, or both.  Each of these extra guys is both an extra pass-protector, blocker, or outlet receiver.

You need at least one deep threat outside wide receiver (and to actually go deep to him sonetimes) to keep the defense from collapsing down on you, jumping your routes, and...well you get the idea right?

This also influences the roster.  There is often a fullback or extra tight end, and one less wide receiver.  It saves money.

3: Well I won't repeat myself yet again.  I've done this to death: Play-fakes, RPOs, pitch-outs, rollouts blahblah: If you average over about 4.6 yards per carry, play-fakes are about as foolproof as it gets.  ALL quarterbacks love play-action.

...It's how offensive line-challenged quarterbacks get 3.5+ seconds to go deep.

Kevin Stefanski has to be excited about this roster. Rodney Njokufield is cautiously sneaking out of his dawg-house, wondering if the new guy will mistreat him like the old one did.

Kareem Hunt knows he'll be on the field a lot--all over the place.  Jarvis Landry can't wait to see if he can out-do Thielen.  All the offensive linemen can't wait.

Yeah I left out OBJ because I think they'll trade him (but some of you people..."cancer"!?! You are IDIOTS!).

Somebody made a bold prediction that the Browns might trade OBJ to the Iggles for Alshon Jeffery and their 2nd or 3rd round pick.

That's interesting, as Jeffery's 2020 cap hit approximates OBJ's, but he is much bigger and taller (a reliable deep threat) than OBJ.

The downside is that he is 30 years old and there are questions about his recovery from lis franc surgery...nevermind DePodesta wouldn't let this trade happen.

But I digress: I'm watching the Senior Bowl now and Left Tackle Josh Brown looked good (he shined all week in practice), and if the Browns have to "settle" for him at 10th overall I will stifle my tears.

The Browns can significantly upgrade their offensive line with their 10th overall pick in 2020.

Most mock drafts are well-named at this point, as those picking players pick based on positions/needs, rather than talent.  

Because you picked an OT first doesn't mean you have to ignore the offensive line until the 5th round, ok?  You can draft another offensive lineman in the second round (and/or with the first rounder you got for OBJ).

Paul DePodesta isn't a "foodball guy", but gets that all dynasties have strong offensive lines.  I'm not sure, but I suspect that this is the single most common ingredient of all Superbowl participants.

Yeah, if I'm right about an OBJ trade they'll need a deep threat WR, and even if I'm wrong about Vernon's release they need more help at EDGE, and (even if Randall is re-signed) an upgrade at safety, and more DT depth, and stuff, but the offensive line needs to come first.

REMEMBER: In 2018 after Jackson and Haley were fired, Baker Mayfield kicked ass WITHOUT OBJ (and with Njoku and Higgins) and no true deep threat, ok?

Trading OBJ, cutting Vernon, and releasing Hubbard and Kirksey would add around FOURTY FIVE MILLION DOLLARS to the Browns' war-chest, and restore them to pre-Dorsey draft-pick and cap-levels.

Whoever they can't draft, they can sign, ok?

Well (try to stay with me here I'm getting analytical), stud offensive linemen (especially left tackles) are extremely expensive in free agency.

Safeties, fullbacks, tight ends, and 4-3 linebackers are much cheaper, ok?

You can even find affordable situational edge-rushers and defensive tackles in free agency.

So (duh) you DRAFT your offensive linemen, real DEs and DTs and stud WRs and CBs, and fill in the blanks via free agency as a policy, see?

A lot of Browns fans have been brainwashed by permabashers, so they see Paul DePodesta and "analytics" as the problem, and not the solution.  Some have even labelled potential GM Berry as "Sashi Brown's puppet".  I can't...the idiocy is just unfathomable!!!

But I digress again: 

The Browns are not rebuilding anymore, but are still building.  The Ravens are irrefutably the team to beat.  The Bengals will have a generational QB and be scary.  The Steelers...

Under Kitchens, the Browns beat all of them in 2019.

1: Baker Mayfield enters his third season in a souped-up Shanahan offensive system.

2: Nobody in any Shanahan system has ever had anything like a Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combo at RB.

3: David Njoku is massively underrated (I suspect.  There might be issues I don't know about, but it's NOT about his hands or blocking, ok?)

4: The defense doesn't suck.  IMO Dorsey mistake Vernon goes, but Chad Thomas is coming into his own, Ward and Williams are exceptional corners who can play in any system, Garrett will be back, Ogunjobi will too, Sheldon Richardson is earning his money, Mack Wilson shows great upside...

Obviously there are holes and question marks on defense, but the releases and trades I presupposed earlier make the retentions of Schobert and Randall more likely, along with the potential theft of real, young, full-spectrum DE talent from cap-strapped (usually elite) teams.

Some coaching candidate who interviewed with the Browns allegedly characterized Jimmy Hadlam's statement that "we're close" as "delusional".

I'm still working on this.  

Did this guy say this in the first place, or did a bad and opinionated writer just make it up?

What if it's true?  Is that because of the Ravens, who the Browns beat?  Is he assuming Haslam means winning the Superbowl, and that he means in 2020?

Are Bitonio, Tretter, Landry, Hunt, Chubb, Richardson, Garrett, Ward, Williams hallucinations?  The Pro Bowl kicker and punter?

I get it, you guys: Over 2 decades of hope and collapse.  What will go wrong this time?

I'm glad that the Browns didn't hire a coach who called "We're close" "delusional", because he was a moron.

Jeez everybody except me thinks Freddie Kitchens was an idiot, but he beat all 3 Division rivals!

Stefanski made Kirk Cousins earn his rediculous contract.  Now HE was Kubiak's "puppet"!?!  

What now the Harvard grad goes brain-dead or something!?!

The idiocy and bullshit I've heard lately shocks me, including all this "meddling" crap aimed at Haslam.

What "meddling"?  He OWNS THE TEAM.  He hires and fires people.  He might be impatient, or whatever, but Jimmy Haslam does NOT interfere with his Front Office or Coaches.

He just FIRES them too often!  (I am confiscating the word "meddling".  It will be returned to you when I think you can use it responsibly.)

You people are piling on, ok?  I have been the victim of this, and you need to pay attention:

Apes hunt and kill, just like wolves.  See their fangs? We still have those same instincts.

Beneath the surface, we're also hardwired to fight for and find our status in the pecking-order of the pack (and stuff).

Also hardwired into...well not me but the rest of YOU is the instinct to join any 2 or more of your pack in attacking whoever they are attacking.

It's mindless.  It's more HERD than pack.

Anyway, Jimmy Haslam isn't perfect, but  doesn't deserve this level of hatred any more than Art Modell or Bill Bellichick did.

Check yourselves out: You're already calling Stefanski a "puppet".  Already calling Mayfield a bust. Treating Myles Garrett like Vontez Burfict, and OBJ like Antonio Brown ("cancer", really?)

T H I N K!

While I'm here, Freddie Kitchens did NOT suck, and should have been retained.  Gregg Williams after 2018 as Head Coach maybe too.

See? I disagree with DePodesta sometimes my own self!

-snap-snap- T H I N K.  

*I know that DePodesta knows more than I do...but remember Mitchell Schwartze and what he said about Wentz too, but Paul DePodesta didn't make either decision*

The trade-down from Wentz was smart at the time.  Drafting Corey Coleman was not.  The former might have been on DePodesta, but how the picks the trade yielded were used was not.

Paul DePodesta was not picking Corey Coleman (or whoever).  He just advised the trade-down(s) as the Browns were beginning to rebuild.

R E B U I L D DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D!?!

PS I'm not sure that letting Mitchell Schwartze go was on DePodesta.  It could have been Brown (who had the authority).

But I digress again:

Andrew Berry...NOT Sashi Brown or Paul DePodesta...drafted Myles Garrett, Larry Ogunjobi, David Njoku, Rashard Higgins, Seth DeValve, Joe Schobert, Ogbah and Nassib.  He also signed Zeitler and Tretter (oh yeah and Darren Fells).

You people piss me off.  How can one of you find a way to call Berry a Sashi Brown puppet?  You think SASHI BROWN made those picks!?!

We're doomed!  These people are allowed to VOTE!!!

Kill me.  Please.













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