Elliott Kennel wrote a very bright article on how new Browns' GM Andrew Berry can pile up more draft picks.
Elliott agrees with me that Berry/DePodesta will want to add draft picks, and actually not spend all their money, so that they can actually retain their best free agents in the future.
He brings up the Brock Osweiler trade, in which the Browns took Brock Osweiler and his inflated salary off the Texans' hands, and got a second round draft pick for their trouble.
A lot of clueless people sqwawked about the cap hit, but at the time the Browns were flush with cap space, and they could dump Brock the next season with a negligable dead money hit.
This was a brilliant move by the then-analytical Browns (including/especially Berry), and they wound up getting Nick Chubb because of it.
Trading current draft picks for higher future picks is another good tactic (see 20 or so previous posts, and the Patriots draft history).
With Berry on-board, the Browns moved down several times, sometimes collecting higher-value future picks as part of the deal.
Elliott mentions the Duke Johnson trade, which was smart if you have a brain, and the Giants-Browns' 2019 blockbuster.
He's too kind to Dorsey, who got hosed. Mayfield didn't need OBJ, and both he and Olivier Vernon were among the most injury-prone players in the NFL.
Elliott says that if the Browns had made the playoffs in 2019, it would have been a good trade for Dorsey, but Vernon missing most of the season and OBJ playing hurt were key reasons why the Browns failed, and this was utterly predictable.
In short, the Browns should do to some other team what Geddelman did to Dorsey.
Compensatory draft picks is another way to pile up draft picks, and Elliott explains how that works quite well.
The Browns might reel in 1-2 of those this season, but I would prefer that they re-sign Randall and Schobert, and even if they don't, signing 2 high profile free agents would wipe the comensatory picks out.
Now, Elliott talks about Sashi Brown as if he, and not DePodesta/Berry, was making these decisions. He was not. He will tell you this, if you ask him. Sashi was a lawyer and negotiator. He had the final say, but knew his limitations, and wouldn't override these guys.
The "Village Elliott" rightly doubts that Andrew Berry will make any Dorsey-like moves ("splash-plays"), as the Browns aren't on the verge of a Superbowl (yet).
He might trade down here and there, but is unlikely to trade draft picks for injury-prone, expensive star veterans...
But Elliott, like everybody else except me, seems to think that an OBJ trade is inconceivable, as he failed to list it as an option for Andrew Berry to pile up more draft picks.
I'm repeating myself here, but since nobody gets it yet, here we go again:
1: Vernon and OBJ represent 30 million against the cap, and are chonicly injured.
2: OBJ isn't a true deep threat. He makes big plays off short and intermediate passes (like Jarvis Landry). Defenses didn't fear him as a vertical threat; they gave him a cushion, and trusted their corners to close and contest anything vertical--often without help.
Yes, he was playing hurt, and will be more like himself in 2020 after his surgery, but he still won't be a true deep threat. He has to cut to separate, and Landry was already here.
If you don't have a vertical threat, defenses can "consolidate" on the short and intermediate routes (and the run) with one deep safety and off-man nevermind. Pearls before swine.
3: Baker Mayfield kicked ass as a rookie with Jarvis Landry and guys named Joe. He did the same for 4 seasons in college. He fell on his face with Rashard Higgins and Njoku collecting splinters and OBJ, so....
4: Everybody still wants OBJ. His record with the Giants was awesome, and everybody knows he played hurt--plus they think Freddie Kitchens is mentally impaired.
Prior to the Olivier Vernon add-in, Leonardo De Dorsey traded Jabrill Peppers and 17 overall for OBJ, and somebody else might well approximate that in 2020.
That was so...Jabrill Peppers was a veteran 1st round pick with 3 years left on his rookie contract!!! Dodesta must have been raising hell (well his version of raising hell anyway).
...Anyway analytical guys do this stuff to "foodball guyz" all the time. What we need is a new GM who is egotistical and wants to get rid of players the guys before him drafted (you know: "not real football players"?) so he can put his "stamp" on the team.
Foodball guyz! Analytics guys love to exploit those egos.
Andrew Berry might be able to hose somebody else on an OBJ trade almost as bad as Geddelman hosed Dorsey.
Andrew Berry is a "football guy" (an ex-player and scout) sans the EGO.
See, Berry thinks with his BRAIN.
That's why he gets along with (and listens to) Paul DePodesta.
Andrew Berry would NEVER have traded #17 overall, Jabrill Peppers, Zeitler, and a 3rd round pick for OBJ and Vernon.
He won't want to get rid of Wilson, Williams, Takitaki, Redwine or Forbes simply because HE didn't help draft them, see? Nor will he say they're "not real football players"...
BUT maybe he can get Carl Nassib, Ogbah, Orchard, or other talented young players Dorsey kicked to the curb back.
My peeps were bored when I told them Berry was the new GM. I'm excited. They'll get why pretty soon.
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