Friday, January 17, 2020

OBJ a GMF Anyway, Along with Other Dorsey Mistakes. The Rise of Common Sense

One of my peeps texted that nobody would trade any real value for OBJ.  Huge miss:

The money and butt-slap are chickenshit, and GMs won't let it override his talent.

The fact that he played the entire 2019 season injured and has never been in real trouble means more to them.

Opposing coaches (unlike many Browns fans) will tell their GMs that OBJ's injury hampered his ability to separate, and he wasn't used as well as he could have been (my readers know:  he's not a back shoulder fade guy.  He's a catch and run guy).

OBJ is still in his prime.  His 15 mil salary has been rendered affordable by inflation, and he has lost what leverage he had to gouge for more due to his meh season and his most recent clownery.

Just as John Dorsey brilliantly traded Jabrill Peppers AND 17th overall for OBJ, some other genius will be compelled to make a big splash in 2020 (except with only one first round pick, and maybe a third or something).

Us moneyball analytics guys all see that OBJ is extremely injury-prone and matchup-sensitive, but the "football" guys don't seem to even think about that!

Lord Insideous would never trade for OBJ, but somebody else will, just like John Dorsey did at a point where OBJ had missed HALF his games with injuries!

...and by the way, YOU people lapped it up!!!

Anyway, more uncommon sense analytics/long-term strategery here:

Olivier Vernon and OBJ cost 15 mil each, and their trade/release along with Hubbard's would balloon the Browns salary cap up into the stratosphere.

The first round draft pick (likely in the bottom half of the round) that OBJ would get back represents a new starter of some sort, on a 5-year rookie deal, so that massive cap isn't even dented.

NOW, Schobert, Hunt, et al could be easily signed (assuming the bidding doesn't get too rediculous), and the Browns might bring down a big one or 2 in free agency (a safety, EDGE guy, or even OT).

DePodesta could do all of this and still "bank" enough to retain Mayfield, Chubb, Garrett etc down the road.

Do you get it?  

1: Add 40 mil or so to the cap.

2: Add a 1st and 3rd round draft pick.

3: Retain every Browns FA that some other fool won't massively overpay.

4: Add a couple more front-line free agents (same budgetary limitations).

The two first round picks (both offensive tackles, for all I care) are probable starters who will significantly outperform their rookie contracts.

The two high profile free agents should be under 28, and signed for at least 3 years, with guaranteed monies front-loaded.  

While these guys will be expensive, they're plug-and-play immediate impact players, and the contract structure makes them tradeable or releasable in their second or third seasons.

Oo sorry you got a headache?

DePodesta was doing fine (1-31 was irrelevant) til Dorsey got here.

In 2018, John Dorsey did a great job, as he rebuilt the whole secondary, picked Mayfield, and didn't squander the money and picks that Berry and DePodesta left him.

...But he hired Mywayorthehighway Haley as OC and was forced to retain Hue Jackson.

It worked out, as Kitchens/Mayfield kicked butt and Gregg Williams did a great job as Head Coach.  6-10 was a good season for that young team.

In 2019, John Dorsey lost his damn mind as he made that trade with New York, and blew around half his cap space, 2 stud players,  and the best part of that draft.

So in 2019, it's 6-10 again under the Head Coach Dorsey picked over Stefanski, and...you're trying to blame analytics for this!?!

Anyway, Dorsey's "big moves" in 2019 set DePodesta's plans back.

Now, finally, Paul has Jimmy Haslam's full attention, because he was right, all along, and all the predictions he no doubt made came true.

I'm reading "dysfuntional" all over the place again.  How can I blame you?  After 1-31 we get 6-10 2 years in a row and Mayfield getting (a lot) WORSE in year 2?

But stick those sideline outbursts, helmetgate, and OBJ where the sun don't shine, ok?  That's all inflated and exaggerated; sensationalized, and I'm disappointed that so many of you buy that garbage.

Let's start over here:

1: Kevin Stefanski, who DePodesta wanted in 2019, is the new Head Coach.

2: DePodesta is still here, and Stefanski comprehends and agrees with his plans to build a dynasty (and is NOT required to turn in his game-plan "homework" every friday duh)

3: With Dorsey gone, much of the damage he did will be undone.  Hubbard, Vernon, and OBJ will be "cashed out", and DePodesta's plan put back on the tracks.

4: The intra-organizational conflicts should be gone now.  There shouldn't be any conflicting factions.

The organizational structure, which keeps DePodesta outside the "chain of command" and leaves him with one of Jimmy Haslam's ears is bashed by many, and I respect their opinions.

But they don't get it:

1: Haslam does NOT meddle.  This is manufactured fake news.

2: DePodesta defers to the professional scouts, as he himself said he does.

3: It is GOOD that DePodesta has a voice, because where he does speak up, it's about how much to pay a given player, how IDIOTIC a proposed trade is, and common sense/business stuff like that.

There will be zero conflict between Stefanski and DePodesta (Stefanski is a brain too, see?), and Berry (or whoever) is the new GM won't come into conflict with DePodesta unless he tries to trade Jabrill Peppers, Kevin Zeitler, and a first round pick for OBJ and Olivier Vernon...

And we can assume that the GM Stefanski signs off on won't even think about stuff like that. Dorsey was the OBJ of GMs.

Now, quit this "big personality" crap.  Jeez to hear you people mindlessly parrotting this garbage, you seem to think Mayfield and Landry (remember OBJ is gone) will be running the team or something.

Stefanski dealt with both Thielan and Diggs going public with their issues with playcalling (or whatever it was), but if you ask either of them about their OC now, what do you think they'd say?

And by the way, these players were both wrong.

(Long story don't get me started)

Anyhow, it's prediction time (bookmark this one, ok?):

1: Landry will get the Thielen role, (except probably not miss a bunch of games to injury).

2: Rodney Ratleyfield might get the Diggs role.  He should be more physical in season 3 with Hanz and Franz, and he's an explosive and fast freak (with good hands, bullcrap aside).

3: David Njoku will start at Tight End, and will excel at blocking as well as receiving.

4: Rashard Higgins might be re-signed dirt-cheap.

5: Kareem Hunt is re-signed to an expensive (but not Ebineezer Bell-like) contract (for at least 3 years).

Hunt seems to sincerely love working with Nick Chubb, and playing WR and even lead-blocker and stuff in this offense.  

5a: For Stefanski, this mitigates the need for more WR's: He can run a 2-back base, and deploy Hunt in the slot or wide anytime he wants.

6: The Browns will land 2 safeties in free agency (and one might be Damarius Randall, dirt-cheap).

7: The Browns will draft an offensive tackle with their first pick, and he will start immediately and kick ass.

8: The Browns will draft at least one more offensive lineman, and sign at least one more (upper echelon) one in free agency.

9: The Browns will draft a BIG, TALL, FAST WR in the middle or lower rounds (a "project").

10: The Browns will sign a serious EDGE-rusher in free agency, and draft at least one as well.

All those are in addition to dumping Hubbard and Vernon and trading OBJ, by the way.

Without mortgaging the future, or being stupid, the new regime can contend in 2020.

The Ravens are the obvious favorites in the Division, but they'll lose some talent to age and the cap, and defenses (including the Browns under Rodney Wilksfield, who were the first),  have already found ways to slow that offense down.

The Bengals will have perhaps the best QB to come out in 10 (or 20 or 50) years, and retain significant talent.

The Steelers are in decline.  I'm glad to hear that Gramps Ben is coming back.  He's TOAST, but he'll start anyway haha.

The AFC North might be the best Division in football in 2020, but Baker Mayfield in a Shanahan/Kubiak/Stefanski system with Hunt and Chubb in his third season can ice that run-oriented cake better than Cousins.

Mayfield is more athletic, and better off-platform.  He's even more accurate (based on his whole history excluding 2019), with a stronger arm.

By the way, are you people out of your minds bashing Mayfield for those commercials?  Jeez how many "takes" do you think he does? Is he even there for an hour!?!

You people: I'm confiscating the word "distraction".  It will be returned to you when I think you can use it responsibly.

Baker's biggest problems in 2019 were his fixation on OBJ and his lack of protection.

His protection will be upgraded this offseason, but so should his BRAIN.  As he reviews those game-tapes, he'll see it.

He's no doubt already realized that he fixated on OBJ way too much (when he wasn't open); he will GET IT.

In 2020, Baker Mayfield will be the 2018 version again, and just hit the deepest open receiver period...on-time, ie within 2.5 seconds...

The commercials are irrelevant wtf is the matter with you idiots?

I hope for an OC off the Shanahan tree, and am optimistic as hell, because that stuff WORKS!  

John Elway repeatedly beat the Browns to reach the Superbowl, and lost.  Then he WON two of them after Mike Shanahan took over.

It wasn't Taylor, ok?  It was Shanahan's zone-blocking offensive scheme.

Gary Kubiak backed up John Elway there, ok?  When he became a coach, he ran that same system, and won Superbowls with it.

Now Kyle Shanahan's 49ers are Superbowl favorites in year 2 of a "rebuild"...

That's analytics, obviously:

Zone-blocking offensive linemen are rarely "road graders" and tend to go lower in the draft.  Ditto "one-cut" running backs.

Mike Shanahan saved lots of money on offensive linemen and running backs, and spent that on star defensive players and wide receivers etc.

You'd think that everybody would copy what he did, but here we are:

Kubiak won 2 Superbowls, Kyle Shanahan is aiming at another, and a lot of Browns fans are bashing Kevin Stefanski already.

You people....

Anyway all the OC candidates are off the Shanahan tree so be optimistic.  Be very optimistic.  Okbye.

Late addition: Baker needs to quit doing commercials.  This will fix everytoyyeedoyeeeduhhheroyeee....

No comments: