Thursday, January 9, 2020

Brady to Browns? McDaniels a Lock? DePodesta Doomed? Browns Hysteria

Some betting site thinks that Tom Brady's likliest destination in 2020 (if he's not re-signed in New England) would be Cleveland.

Well, if Josh Daniels becomes the new Head Coach, that might make actual sense, since Btady wouldn't need to learn a new system, would be eyeball deep in lethal weapons, and the Browns could afford to pay him.

Without a doubt, this would be a Dorsian go for all the marbles move, since (in reality) Father Time might overtake Brady at any time.

Baker Mayfield might (wisely) accept his demotion, or raise hell, but after the season he just had...well if he's an adult he makes lemonade out of it, as he gets to understudy the GOAT.

I was allergic to this idea when I first heard it, but couldn't manage to shut my brain down.

See, Tom Brady is a coach on the field (including on the practice field).  The position coaches add this or that, but could just stand back and let Brady run the practice if they wanted to.

And yes, with a couple upgrades to the offensive line, Tom Brady could put the 2020 Browns in the hunt.

The main problem is the length of Brady's contract.  He will try to lock himself in (via guaranteed monies) for at least 2 years, wherever he goes.

Tom Brady doesn't want to start bouncing around and learning new systems in his twilight years, and he also does know that he has already declined physically.  He sees the writing on the wall.

Baker Mayfield is not a loser, and DePodesta (or any long-term planner) won't want to commit 15% of their budget to one old quarterback and keep Mayfield on the bench through 2021.

There.  I gave it a fair hearing, but it's unlikely.

Nick Dudukovich names 3 players he feels might be released (or traded) due to analytics, and was (to my surprise) on the money with Schobert, Beckham or Landry, and Olivier Vernon.

I've recently been turned around to considering Joe Schobert a priority signing, but Nick expects his Brinks Truck to be oversized and require escorts.

If Nick is right, I'm back to where I started on Schobert:  Pay him, but don't OVERpay him.

I've been telling you about Beckham being a mistake and excellent trade-bait for awhile.

Vernon turned 30 and his release would be free yes; however he is still under contract, and somebody is likely willing to cough up a lower-round pick for him (note to Nick: Greed is good).

Schobert's loss is revenue-neutral, but the trade or releases of Vernon and one of the wide receivers would pump up the cap money significantly (unless there's a player-for-player trade in there, and the player the Browns get has a similar salary).

In most cases, DePodesta will want draft picks instead...

Ok you see draft picks are much, much cheaper, and a lot of teams throw them around like confetti (ie they undervalue them).

OBJ could be turned into a decent edge-rusher and right tackle at even money, but that's unrealistic.  More likely, he is a middle first round and 3rd round pick (or more).

DePodesta builds up his bankroll, and his talent-pool.

By the way, Lord Insideous has been doing exactly this for decades now, and nobody calls him a "moneyball guy"!

Albert Breer wrote an almost excellent article on how Jimmy Haslam can get it right this time by avoiding past mistakes.

Breer has Jimmy Haslam "going to" low-level assistant coaches and taking their suggestions to the Head Coach...

Ok that's bizarre, not to mention highly improbable almost certainly bullshit, and I'm shocked that Breer would include this in his article.

This piling on aside, the balance of Greer's article is insightful and smart.

It's always been shotgun marriages between Front Offices and Coaches, plus each in one of Haslam's ears, with him as the judge.

Jimmy seemed to step back when he hired Dorsey, as Dorsey had his way (see my last 3 posts).

Greer ignores this, of course.

But he's right, and Haslam is already doing exactly what Greer prescribes (better late than never).

The new Head Coach will choose his GM.

He can fire DePodesta if he is a dumbass wants to (btw MIKE MCCARTHY wants a full analytics staff)....

Dan Justik lists 3 players he thinks the Browns should move on from in 2020, and I concur 100%:

Hubbard, Vernon, and Kirksey.  

Dan shocked me with how much money the Browns could save by just releasing these guys!  Close to 5 mil for Hubbard, 15 mil for Vernon, and 7.5 mil for Kirksey!

(err...nevermind what I said about trading Vernon, obviously).

Well, we can thank John Dorsey for leaving his successors some "tangible assets", anyway!

Justik wrote another article suggesting that the Browns job might be McDaniels' "dream job".  The article was a tad "fluffy" but good.

What got me was the comments.  Every single one of them considered McDaniels the no-brainer choice.  One regarded Stefanski as as unqualified as Kitchens, but several others bashed Stefanski too.

Nobody mentioned Tom Brady, Josh's record as Head Coach in Denver, or...

Baah!! Baaahh!!!  He's a home-boy SOLD!

The flock could be accidentally right--I don't know.

One commenter was knowlegable and persuasive, as he listed a bunch of Front Office people and assistants he could bring in.

Of course this included Jim Schwartze as DC and seemed overly optimistic otherwise.

For those who wonder why the Browns want a decision by saturday, it's because Front Office people and assistant coaches are being gobbled up as we speak.

The new Head Coach could still be in the playoffs, and not formally signed or announced, but the cat would be out of the bag quickly based on who the Browns start hiring.

I'm not a lawyer, but could play one on radio, and a coach under contract to another team can sign a "letter of commitment" (or something) which would penalize him if he renegs.  

It says "I accept your job as soon as I am done with my current employer and here is my wallet if I don't" and stuff.

The simplest solution is Josh McDaniels.

The BEST solution is...?








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