Wednesday, January 1, 2020

DePodesta vs Dorsey: What Almost Certainly Happened, and Why DePodesta Won

Chief S T R A T E G Y Officer Paul Dodesta's job was to maximize the draft and salary cap to make the Cleveland Browns a perennial contender.

Business analytics is a real course with BS and Masters Degrees, do you get that?

He was never here to take over for any of the real scouts.  The extent of his input there was (ok perfect segue) for example:

When John Dorsey told Jimmy Haslam he wanted to trade for OBJ, DePodesta no doubt said into his other ear:

1: OBJ had missed literally half the games he was eligable to play in due to injuries.

2: Baker Mayfield is not the type of Quarterback who needs a "go-to" guy; he instinctively "distributes" the ball.

3: The combination of his salary and the high first round pick it would cost the Browns would set the program back, as the team would begin losing veteran free agents starting in 2020, and have no inexpensive young first round pick to replace them.

4: Odds were good that OBJ would be injured again in 2019.

But John Dorsey got his way.  And Paul DePodesta was right, and Jimmy Haslam remembers.

Then came the Olivier Vernon for Kevin Zeitler trade, and what DePodesta without a doubt had to say about that:

1: 90% of Vernon's passrush success came from the weak side, which is Garrett's, and Vernon was statistically less efficient from the strong side.

2:  Vernon, too, had missed half his games due to chronic ankle injuries.

DePodesta was right.  Haslam remembers.

Then came the actual trade, and there go Zeitler and Jabrill Peppers.

DePodesta no doubt repeated all of the above into Jimmy's other ear, and added:

1: The net cap-hit combined with the loss of Peppers (with time left on his rookie contract) and a high first round pick would do more harm than good long-term and short-term.

DePodesta was right.  Haslam remembers.

DePodesta may not have had much to say pro or con in re Austin Corbett (who was generally considered worthy of being drafted where he was).

But then Dorsey traded his own draft pick, disruptive passrushing linebacker Genard Avery, for a bag of donuts a few weeks before helmet-gate.

Avery is a freak.  He penetrates and blows up runs as well as passes.  He was the biggest, strongest, quickest, and fastest of all the linebackers on the roster; a James Harrision (except faster).

I guarantee you that DePodesta raised hell over that one, and said:

1: Vernon will miss time, and his run defense is critical.

Now that Dorsey has dumped Ogbah and Nassib (*"not real football players"*), this team will lack edge-depth.

2: This player is worth a LOT more than a bag of donuts !:+$!?#WTF!?!

Haslam remembers.  He can see how Nassib and Ogbah are doing.  He saw what happened to both the passrush and run defense.  He will monitor Avery.

DePodesta was right.  Haslam remembers.

Hubbard:  Dorsey wanted to pay him elite money.  DePodesta no doubt said "that's way too much money for a mediocre player without upside!"

DePodesta was right.  Haslam remembers.

Paul DePodesta has been right every time he's disagreed with John Dorsey, and Haslam remembers, ok?

How do I know this? READ MY BLOG! I told you all this stuff, and DePodesta makes me look like an amoeba.

Now, DePodesta is running the search for the next Head Coach.

This is very "clean" and efficient:  the candidates will understand that DePodesta won't be their boss, and the Front Office is open to people they may want to bring in.

No disrespect intended to an outstanding GM here, but if I'm an Alpha male "Type A" guy, I'd prefer to avoid staredowns and pissing contests in my interviews.

I haven't drilled down into why DePodesta wanted the 2 other assistant coaches more than Kitchens in 2019, but know that Stefanski and McDermott got more "Haslam heard, and remembers".

I don't expect DePodesta to screw around interviewing 13 or more guys here (and losing most of them to other teams or middle fingers).

Indeed, his main targets are almost certainly his earliest interviews.

He can't officially hire any coach from a playoff team until that team is eliminated.  Ditto college coaches.

But DePodesta won't screw around.  And he almost certainly has his list (and has checked it twice), and might already have an unofficial deal in place.

Pat Kirwan says that Front Offices exploit Head Coach searches to get input from every candidate:

"What would you do with this roster?  What is wrong here? How would you fix this?"

The candidates have no choice but to answer these questions honestly (even though they know they might not have a chance, but are being "milked"), see?

And then of course the interviewers get a better bead on the coaches they don't hire...

It stinks, really, but every team does it.  For the Browns, it's why Kitchens was fired immediately, and Dorsey soon after.  DePodesta wants to interrogate interview as many candidates as he can in the window he has.

The only high profile guy he's risking right now is Mike McCarthy.  But Paul wasn't hot for him in 2019 so...

Anyway I hope some of this sinks in:

Paul DePodesta "swept" John Dorsey, and that's why he is here and Dorsey aint.

Bill Polian can't handle it, but rational people will.


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