Monday, September 2, 2019

Sister Colon Can find Gillan in a Bar (wait for it), "Big Egos" Unreality Show Soap Opera Bullcrap, Analytics 101

Jamie Gillan was in a bar with his Dad when John Dorsey called to tell him he'd made the team.

Everybody went nuts, and he drank for free.

As much as this makes me smile, I can't wait to hear what Colon Cowherd thinks of it.  It's a "bad look".  Go study your playbook.  Jamie Gillan, corrupter of youth.

This Greg Robinson thing had me worried.  I assume that as this move was made, Dorsey made another offer to extend him beyond his one year.

It was Robinson and his agent who only wanted the one year contract after 2018, and it makes sense for a player who is confident he will earn himself a fat raise in 2019.

But that was before OBJ, Sheldon Richardson, Olivier Vernon, and Greedy Williams.  Greg might now want to remain a part of this team longer term.

As I've posted, Greg Robinson is not an elite Left Tackle (as PFF, Numberfire etc mercilessly point out).  He should be a little better in 2020, since he's only played Left Tackle in the pros briefly (and fell on his face as a rookie).

Some idiot will offer Robinson top 5 Left Tackle money, and Paul DePodesta John Dorsey will do everything they can to replace him rather than massively overpay him.

Yeah I know, a lot of you don't want to worry about next season's roster before this season has even started, but that's exactly why Paul DePodesta gets the big bucks:

Joe Schobert, JC Tretter, and Damarius Randall will be lining up their own Brinks trucks along with Robinson's next season.  If the Browns were to pay each of them what their respective markets will dictate, you can kiss the bulk of that salary cap surplus good bye.

Schobert will probably leave, as Mack Wilson shows great promise, but Randall and Tretter are thornier issues.

Dorsey simply has to target Left Tackles in the 2020 draft.  Every veteran Left Tackle who is any good is being paid a ton, and will not be available.

...but the Browns will be drafting in the bottom third of the first round, and the top several Left Tackles will be gone by the time they draft.

Sadly, Paul and John might be forced to massively overpay this average player (dammit) after all...and no doubt his agent knows it ("Stick 'em up!")

The chain reaction could lead to Randall or Tretter's departure. Austin Corbett might be a good center, and there are several players on this roster who aren't significantly worse than Randall...too deep in the weeds, huh?

But the point is, we want a dynasty, ok?  Not a flash in the pan all-or-nothing and then rebuild (again) thing.  Those of you who say "who cares this is only 2019!" or "we got plenty of money pay him" don't get that.

This is an extremely talented and young team, and as it stands, it will collapse in 2022 or sooner...look do you get this?

1: Count the current Pro Bowlers on this roster, and add in the future ones and those who deserve it but get screwed out of it:

Mayfield Chubb OBJ Landry Bitonio Tretter Garrett Richardson Vernon Schobert Randall Ward Williams? Njoku?

Every one of those guys will be demanding top money.  One of them is a Quarterback, and the other is an Edge-Rusher.  ...and here we have an average Left Tackle with a huge monkey wrench...

"Who cares?"  Everybody who didn't flunk math, Sherlock!

Yeah I get it you like the sausage but don't want to know how it's made.

Anyway Trevon Coley is waived now and the roster makes more sense.

There are 6 WRs with the last 2 being Hodge and Taylor.  Hodge is mostly a Special Teamer.  Right now Ratley is 4th, but Callaway will be back (if he's not traded) and change things.  One of the bottom 2 will probably hit the dusty trail.

Meanwhile, Damion Ratley has a chance to put some plays on tape, and he just might:

Damion Ratley is quite similar to Antonio Callaway, except a couple inches taller.  Explosiveness and speed, and eventually a more physical player.

Damion, this is your "moment", dude.  You have 4 games to pass Callaway up.

While Rashard Higgins has made himself downright indispensable (playing from the slot a lot by the way), there should be a lot of 3-wides, and Ratley is a legit deep threat, and should get some chances (as Callaway would have).

Like a lot of you, Callaway's violation in conjunction with his (actually deplorable) criminal history makes me nervous.

I'm the same guy who kept defending Josh Gordon and calling his suspensions "persecution".  I'll never get that egg off my face, but I learned from that.

I hope Ratley can emerge in 2019 like Callaway did in 2018.  Then John Dorsey can trade Callaway (and his sweet contract) for Draft ammo or concievably a Left Tackle.

Oops sorry there I go talking business again.  Sorry I can't help it.  Call me George RR Martin.  

Dynasty:  The Patriots are the ultimate prototype, but the Steelers are close.  The Saints and Cowboys are worth checking out too.

Every team wants to copy the Patriots.  How do they do it?

Sorry, haters, but Bill Belichick is a genius, and would have succeeded (maybe not to the same level) without Tom Brady.  (Remember Matt Cassell?  What has that guy done since winning 11 games with the Patriots?  Anybody home?)

And no, Brady didn't accept less money because his wife makes more money or because of endorsements ok?  And no it's not smoke and mirrors either.

Tom Brady took less money to allow his team to keep/sign better Offensive Linemen, guys like Gronk, and defensive players.

This aint rocket science, ok? Joe Flacco wins a Superbowl.  Backs up his Brinks truck.  The Ravens have to cut a bunch of players, and that's it.  Flacco gets hurt repeatedly and never sniffs a Conference Championship game again.

Brady takes less money, so Bill can get/keep talent around him.  He doesn't get hurt, and they keep winning, and win multiple Superbowls.

Russell Wilson just took the last nickel he could get.  Let's see how the Seahawks do now!

Aaron Rodgers?  Drew Brees?  Is any of this sinking in yet?

The Eagles just broke their bank for Carson Wentz.  They're still pretty loaded...for 2019...then...well, avert your eyes.  You don't want to see that.

There are early indications that Baker Mayfield might be as logical and intelligent as Tom Brady, and not gouge the Browns for all he can get.

He races to congratulate the guys who caught his passes or the running backs who made great plays, and he jumps on his defensive teammates the same way.

He GETS that this is a team sport.

I'm frankly disgusted that Tom Brady is the only exception to the "stick 'em up, empty the safe" rule, and that nobody else seems to comprehend the obvious link between Brady's salary and all those Superbowls.

You can't emulate the Patriots completely unless you have a Quarterback who thinks with his brain.

Is any of this sinking in? Is that extra 6 million or so worth a couple concussions and a broken leg because your team had to axe your center and Right Tackle, and a reliable receiver...and oh yeah some defensive guys which is why you're playing from behind GENIUS! Sheer Genius!

Maybe too much to hope for: Baker being as smart as Tom.  One thing for sure, though: Baker Mayfield is immune to peer pressure.  He's not a drone.  

What else do the Patriots do to sustain their success?

Well, they draft well, and "train up" lower picks.  They dig up guys like Julian Edelman (a Quarterback), Gronk (who had spinal/back issues), Garapollo (second round) Jacoby Brissett (lower), and a bunch of trench guys.

Belichick's drafts, over time, are solid but not exceptional pick for pick, but Bill stockpiles those picks.

He rarely trades up, and often trades down, and takes future picks a round higher.  I read an article a couple years ago that showed how Belichick had acquired a 5th round pick in one trade, and 3 years later used that draft pick in the middle of the second round.

This is what Paul DePodesta does.  Bill Belichick says he doesn't use analytics, but he does.  He just naturally thinks analytically, and was doing it intuitively before anybody else was (or had a name for it).

Lord Insideous's treatment of older players is evidence.  Guys who are 29 or older start backing up their Brinks trucks and are stopped by Security.

"I won't match that offer.  Here is my offer.  Take it or leave it."

...but of course, the Sith Lord trades these guys a year sooner whenever he can.

Then there's the fact that everybody wants to play for this perennial Superbowl contender, and almost always accept less money for the opportunity.

Quite the racket they got goin, no?

The Steelers are a little different, starting with Big Ben gouging for every last penny like everybody else except Brady.

But the Steelers draft better than the Sith Lord, and develop young players at least as well.

They managed to preserve possibly the best Offensive Line in the NFL, and shrug the losses of Ebineezer Bell and Antonio Brown off, and to significantly upgrade their 2019 defense as well.

Fortunately, Big Ben got big bucks, so...well?

Anyway, all these teams have elite Quarterbacks.  Baker Mayfield puts the 2019 Browns right there with them.  Mayfield is no "project".  He's elite now.  Why doesn't everybody get this obvious fact?

In re that, Big Ben and Brady are on their way out (moreso Ben, since he gets to face the Browns defense twice in 2019 and has been injured a lot more).

Lamar Jackson?  Ok Mayfield and Mahomes are quarterbacks, see? I'm not sure what Jackson is, but he's not like them in terms of decision-making or accuracy.

I'll head some dumbassitude off at the pass here in re Jackson too: He can hook-slide or run out of bounds as well as Russell Wilson or anybody else.  He's more likely to get maimed IN the pocket than outside it.

However, Lamar Jackson is more a "weapon" than a Quarterback.  In the crunch, a Mahomes, Mayfield, Rodgers, Big Ben, Brees or whoever will hit that tiny window on 3rd and a mile.  Jackson won't.

But I digress:  Daryl Ruiter has a "bucket list" for the 2019 Browns.  The sweeping the Steelers, winning the Division, winning 4 in a row, and winning a playoff game are all pretty obvious, but the one that matters now is beating the Titans in the season opener.

I haven't bothered to read what Titans TE Delanie Walker said about the hype surrounding the Browns, but don't need to.

Those of you who read that article can correct me if I'm wrong, but here's what Walker said:

We haven't played a game yet.  The Titans were pretty good last season. When the whistle blows, it's about who wants it more.  We'll see.  I like being the underdog.  (Insert multiple chiches here _____________________).

Daryl is right.  The 2019 Browns overmatch the 2019 Titans and should beat them, period.

No offense to the Titans, who were kicking ass last season until multiple injuries maimed them, but they're no match for the 2019 Browns, and it aint even close.

It shouldn't come down to Field Goals.  The full-spectrum Browns Offense, Defense, and Special Teams should all dominate.

No offense to any Titans fans who might stumble across this article: I know that your team doesn't suck.  But my team is stacked, ok? And that includes the quarterback. 

Listen Titans fans: I wanted the Browns to find a way to draft Marcus Mariotta myself, but am now glad they didn't.  I am now overjoyed to have Baker Mayfield instead.

Mariotta is massively talented, and you'd have to be mentally impaired to write him off (yet), but the Browns Defensive Line won't give Marcus, your running backs, or anybody else a chance.

And the hell with preseason (including game 3), here come Landry, OBJ, Njoku, Chubb, etc and this is going to be a problem for your defense.

I've run into both Browns fans and knowelegable fantasy guys who seem universally skeptical about the 2019 Browns.

I can't seem to "reach" them, no matter what I say.  Their minds are made up, and that's that.  ...and yes, they are allowed to vote.

OBJ=AB. "Big Personalities/Egos".  Freddie who? And of course the mandatory history lesson which predates Kitchens, Dorsey, Mayfield, omfg how retarded you people are!

I was about to become politically incorrect okbye













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