The Browns are now in first place in the AFC North. Not "technically" or whatever, as they own the tie-breaker.
Baker Mayfield completed only 20 of 30 pass attempts for a paltry 342 yards and one TD. Nick Chubb bailed Baker out with 3 rushing TDs (8.3 yards per carry).
Yeah I am stunned too! After all, the 2019 Ravens defense was going to be as good as the 2018 version right? Nick Chubb was going to get stuffed right? You know, because the 2019 Ravens D stuffed...errumm...
Ok (see a bunch of my previous posts) the 2019 Ravens were never a match for the 2019 Browns talent-wise. Lamar Jackson is much better than I thought he would be, but I still like Mayfield better.
Where the experts screwed up (aside from writing Mayfield off) was writing the Browns' defense, Nick Chubb, Offensive Line, Defense, Special Teams, and (what the hell) everything else off.
Don't get me wrong here: I saw a lot of dumbassitude in the sets and playcalling here, including another shotgun/3-wide sequence from inside the 10...heaven forfend that Nick Chubb should touch the ball here...!?!
It's great that the Browns beat the Ravens, but it would have been better if Nick Chubb had been allowed to hammer his way to a touchdown instead of Mayfield trying to fit passes into micro-windows...
You people don't get this: Inside the 20 yard line there are no deep routes. Your "burners" are useless, because they can't run beyond the end zone.
Is any of this sinking in? In the red zone, the Defense has a huge advantage in coverage.
RUNNING the ball (or pitching out or dinking to Nick Chubb) in the red zone is A GOOD IDEA DUH.
Fortunately, Freddie made the right call once in this game. The Ravens never saw Chubb coming--despite the fact that it was obvious.
Get it? The Browns PASS in the Red Zone 100% of the time (until now).
I see signs of hope here. I think Freddie is taking his offense back from the "committee" (aka his suicide squad).
There were crosses and slants and Mayfield got rid of it quickly (including to running backs).
Freddie didn't go back to his roots here, but did get closer to them. More under center and pistol, more play-action, more 21 or 12 sets, and more crosses and slants.
Not ONE of the big plays was off a long bomb.
I am confident that Freddie Kitchens will not screw this up. I think. I hope.
On to the 49ers. We are doomed again (not sure why yet).
Okbye.
Sunday, September 29, 2019
Saturday, September 28, 2019
2019 Browns: Democracy in Action: Consensus on No Leadership and Mediocrity.
Former Offensive Lineman Geoff Schwartze weighed in on Baker Mayfield and his Offensive Line, and it wasn't kind to the Quarterback.
Like other real expert analysts, Goeff introduced exhibits A through Z in the form of film-clips, but this time with more depth:
Geoff compares Mayfield to Mariota, as both Quarterbacks have been guilty of holding the ball too long. In Baker's case, he's also fleeing a good pocket, and at times dropping too deep.
Schwartz says that if that Quarterback gets a yard deeper than where he is supposed to be, he's sticking it to his tackles, who are protecting the spot where he is supposed to stop his retreat.
The tackle is slowing and preparing to anchor, to prevent a bull-rush or inside move. The Quarterback dropping too deep allows the edge-rusher to get around him.
Schwartz isn't bashing Mayfield. He stipulates that the Browns' Offensive Line is not an elite unit, and lists scheme and personnel (coaching) as possible culprits.
Indeed, Doug Farrar has a lot to add to what Mitchell's brother said, and (sigh) yet again proves my humble self a humble genius -blush-blush-:
Last season, Freddie ran "big" personnel (21 or 12 sets) over one third of the time. This season, he is running it less than 10% of the time (it's 3-wide all the time).
The extra Tight End or Running Back in the 21 or 12 sets is a blocker, as well as a receiver.
Freddie didn't get overly cute with these guys, either. At least one, and often both, Tight Ends were right off the tackles, and at least one running back was in the actual backfield, ready to run or protect.
(*This is partly why Duke Johnson wanted out: He was protecting Mayfield more than he was running or going out for passes*).
This was kind of the opposite of a "spread" offense. The Browns successfully ran the ball out of it, but also it concentrated the defense inside and opened up the sidelines;
Yes, the 2 Wide Receivers had cornerbacks on them, but they were rarely double-covered, and if the corner didn't nail them immediately, it was off to the races.
The receivers ran shorter routes, across the middle or to the sidelines. Baker was under center or in the Pistol a lot, and Freddie's 2018 Browns ran a lot of play-action.
Mayfield got rid of the ball quickly (and on the money) most of the time.
So what, Doug wonders, tf happened!?!
Baker is partly holding the ball too long because the routes are now vertical, and take longer to develop, especially against zone coverages custom-made to take the deep stuff away.
The West Coast Offense was designed to beat these coverages (and edge-rushers), and press/man corners were designed to beat the West Coast.
Maybe Todd Monken isn't listening to Steve Wilks, but Freddie should be. I'm pretty sure he's shouting "do what you did last season!!!"
Last season, Freddie ran a fast-paced offense, often with pre-snap motions. As Doug Farrar points out, defenses had issues substituting, matching up, and diagnosing before the ball was snapped.
Now, each down is a laborious, sluggish, agonizingly slow Broadway production, giving the defense plenty of time to get a nice bead on what the Browns are about to do wtf!?!
Steve Patsko plays Captain Obvious here as he suggests that more play-action would help Baker Mayfield and the offense a lot...
...and yes, that's another thing that's been all but deleted from the 2018 Offense.
I remember a Browns assistant talking about how Freddie Kitchens intended to run a "collaborative" offense with input from everybody (presumably starting with new OC Todd Monken).
This sounded good to me at the time...but then, I was assuming that Freddie would retain ultimate control.
I repeat that I think Freddie Kitchens is smarter than everybody else, but doesn't believe it. How can he say that the schemes and alignments aren't a problem? The only one he's fooling is himself!
Humility is good, Freddie. But this is rediculous. In 2018 YOU YOU YOU turned this offense around, and it's the changes that are destroying it (and a great Quarterback) right under your nose!!! OMFG!!!!
You're committing suicide, Freddie. GROW A PAIR and take your fkng offense back!
Why are the Browns doomed vs the juggernaut Ravens in the minds of nearly everybody?
The Browns confronted 2 top 10 defenses while the Ravens faced 2 of the worst in the NFL.
Lamar and company sputtered and lost to the Chiefs, while Mayfield and the Browns lost to the Superbowl Rams.
There's no denying that Lamar Jackson is much better as a pure QB in year 2, or that that running game is awesome, but waitaminnit:
The Ravens defense is NOT as good as it was last season, and it's early stats are inflated by two tomato cans.
While both secondaries are decimated by injuries, the Browns are the team with OBJ, as well as better secondary depth---coached by Steve Wilks (a "zone" guy).
Have they faced anybody like Nick Chubb yet? Or OBJ? Aside from KC, has this "dominating" Ravens defense faced an Offensive Line like the Browns?
And aside from Mahomes, a Quarterback like Mayfield? A defensive line like this?
But noooo! The Ravens are vastly superior to the lowly Browns, and will no doubt dominate them, like they did last...pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
I can't predict a Browns win in Baltimore, but it's idiotic to predict a Ravens win by 6 points.
In seclusion, my updated Browns W/L prediction is 14-2. I will update this when new data shows up.
As for Browns vs Ravens, Kitchens' Browns will win. The "consensus" Browns will lose.
(Late note: Fantasy Expert thinks Monken calling plays would fix everything. Wow.)
There it is.
Okbye.
Like other real expert analysts, Goeff introduced exhibits A through Z in the form of film-clips, but this time with more depth:
Geoff compares Mayfield to Mariota, as both Quarterbacks have been guilty of holding the ball too long. In Baker's case, he's also fleeing a good pocket, and at times dropping too deep.
Schwartz says that if that Quarterback gets a yard deeper than where he is supposed to be, he's sticking it to his tackles, who are protecting the spot where he is supposed to stop his retreat.
The tackle is slowing and preparing to anchor, to prevent a bull-rush or inside move. The Quarterback dropping too deep allows the edge-rusher to get around him.
Schwartz isn't bashing Mayfield. He stipulates that the Browns' Offensive Line is not an elite unit, and lists scheme and personnel (coaching) as possible culprits.
Indeed, Doug Farrar has a lot to add to what Mitchell's brother said, and (sigh) yet again proves my humble self a humble genius -blush-blush-:
Last season, Freddie ran "big" personnel (21 or 12 sets) over one third of the time. This season, he is running it less than 10% of the time (it's 3-wide all the time).
The extra Tight End or Running Back in the 21 or 12 sets is a blocker, as well as a receiver.
Freddie didn't get overly cute with these guys, either. At least one, and often both, Tight Ends were right off the tackles, and at least one running back was in the actual backfield, ready to run or protect.
(*This is partly why Duke Johnson wanted out: He was protecting Mayfield more than he was running or going out for passes*).
This was kind of the opposite of a "spread" offense. The Browns successfully ran the ball out of it, but also it concentrated the defense inside and opened up the sidelines;
Yes, the 2 Wide Receivers had cornerbacks on them, but they were rarely double-covered, and if the corner didn't nail them immediately, it was off to the races.
The receivers ran shorter routes, across the middle or to the sidelines. Baker was under center or in the Pistol a lot, and Freddie's 2018 Browns ran a lot of play-action.
Mayfield got rid of the ball quickly (and on the money) most of the time.
So what, Doug wonders, tf happened!?!
Baker is partly holding the ball too long because the routes are now vertical, and take longer to develop, especially against zone coverages custom-made to take the deep stuff away.
The West Coast Offense was designed to beat these coverages (and edge-rushers), and press/man corners were designed to beat the West Coast.
Maybe Todd Monken isn't listening to Steve Wilks, but Freddie should be. I'm pretty sure he's shouting "do what you did last season!!!"
Last season, Freddie ran a fast-paced offense, often with pre-snap motions. As Doug Farrar points out, defenses had issues substituting, matching up, and diagnosing before the ball was snapped.
Now, each down is a laborious, sluggish, agonizingly slow Broadway production, giving the defense plenty of time to get a nice bead on what the Browns are about to do wtf!?!
Steve Patsko plays Captain Obvious here as he suggests that more play-action would help Baker Mayfield and the offense a lot...
...and yes, that's another thing that's been all but deleted from the 2018 Offense.
I remember a Browns assistant talking about how Freddie Kitchens intended to run a "collaborative" offense with input from everybody (presumably starting with new OC Todd Monken).
This sounded good to me at the time...but then, I was assuming that Freddie would retain ultimate control.
I repeat that I think Freddie Kitchens is smarter than everybody else, but doesn't believe it. How can he say that the schemes and alignments aren't a problem? The only one he's fooling is himself!
Humility is good, Freddie. But this is rediculous. In 2018 YOU YOU YOU turned this offense around, and it's the changes that are destroying it (and a great Quarterback) right under your nose!!! OMFG!!!!
You're committing suicide, Freddie. GROW A PAIR and take your fkng offense back!
Why are the Browns doomed vs the juggernaut Ravens in the minds of nearly everybody?
The Browns confronted 2 top 10 defenses while the Ravens faced 2 of the worst in the NFL.
Lamar and company sputtered and lost to the Chiefs, while Mayfield and the Browns lost to the Superbowl Rams.
There's no denying that Lamar Jackson is much better as a pure QB in year 2, or that that running game is awesome, but waitaminnit:
The Ravens defense is NOT as good as it was last season, and it's early stats are inflated by two tomato cans.
While both secondaries are decimated by injuries, the Browns are the team with OBJ, as well as better secondary depth---coached by Steve Wilks (a "zone" guy).
Have they faced anybody like Nick Chubb yet? Or OBJ? Aside from KC, has this "dominating" Ravens defense faced an Offensive Line like the Browns?
And aside from Mahomes, a Quarterback like Mayfield? A defensive line like this?
But noooo! The Ravens are vastly superior to the lowly Browns, and will no doubt dominate them, like they did last...pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
I can't predict a Browns win in Baltimore, but it's idiotic to predict a Ravens win by 6 points.
In seclusion, my updated Browns W/L prediction is 14-2. I will update this when new data shows up.
As for Browns vs Ravens, Kitchens' Browns will win. The "consensus" Browns will lose.
(Late note: Fantasy Expert thinks Monken calling plays would fix everything. Wow.)
There it is.
Okbye.
Wednesday, September 25, 2019
Baker Mayfield Needs Work, and So Does Freddie Kitchens Immediately (if not sooner)
I'm not familiar with Steven Ruiz, but he worked Baker Mayfield over pretty good.
This might be part of the criticizm that Freddie Kitchens calls "assenine", but well...good for Freddie for having his boy's back, but shame on him for thinking we're all a bunch of idiots:
Steven came to court with exhibits A through Z, and he knows what he's talking about (like Jake Burns).
I won't even go into the details (too deep), but the Cliffnotes version is that the 2019 defenses are showing one coverage presnap, then changing it post-snap, and Baker is having trouble diagnosing it.
(Gotta toss in here that Bernie Kosar said they're using more zone/less man coverage; that's tougher to read quickly too).
Yeah I know that this contradicts the majority of what I said about Baker's processing speed and football intelligence, but I don't care, see?
Mr Ruiz has presented new and persuasive evidence, and if I refuse to accept it, I'm as bad as most other alleged analysts. If you can't admit that you were wrong, you areColon Cowherd a dumbass.
Anyhow, Steve suggests some adjustments Freddie can make to help Baker out, and also says that he expects Mayfield to figure this out pretty soon.
I (blush-blush) told you guys about the QB "arms race", as young Quarterbacks typically do well at first, then hit a wall as Defenses adapt to them, then figure that out and do better again, until opposing defenses ambush them again, and so it goes.
Patrick Mahomes is the only exception to this rule in the modern era. I know that DeShaun Watson really didn't have any big setbacks (aside from his injury), but he's had his own ups and downs; he's not like Mahomes.
I need to point out that Mahomes has a better Offensive Line than Mayfield, and has a one year NFL head start on him in the same offensive system with the same Head Coach (this Andy Reid guy or something), but still wow. Just wow.
Tyreek who? Kareem who? Mahomes is just all that. Too bad the Browns never fixed those communications glitches and never got my "just draft Mahomes" texts and emails...
(Full disclosure I said the same about Watson)...
(Fuller disclosure I think da Bearss were idiots to trade up and draft Trubisky that high and STILL think trading down from Wentz was smart at that time...how they used all those draft picks is a separate issue) but I digress:
Steven Ruiz dinged my man Baker pretty hard here, but truth is truth.
Baker Mayfield remains as talented and intelligent as any QB in the NFL, but he's not as advanced as guys like me said he was yet. YET.
And again, with respect to Bernie and Steve, the Freddie Kitchens 2018 offense is ready and waiting. As Phil Simms points out, the 2019 Browns have abandoned it.
Steve is on the money in re the hurry-up. Mayfield kicks ass in the hurry-up. I know you can't run that all game long (or you wear your own defense out), but the 2019 Browns are downright Martonian, and never hurry up except in obvious and urgent situations.
...what the hell happened to Freddie Kitchens? See my earlier posts: I bet I nailed it. He's too damn HUMBLE!
But you gotta love the Quarterback and Head Coach defending eachother, and none of the other "big egos" are staging a mutinee (as predicted) yet.
If I'm Jarvis Landry, I want to go back to my "go-to"/bail-out/chain-moving role.
Steve Ruiz cited Landry's putrid 2019 conversion rate on targets, and it's because he's going vertical and trying to catch over his shoulder a lot.
When he came to the Browns from the Dolphins, Jarvis thought he could do that. Indeed, he did, sorta.
But he's not a vertical receiver. He's a catch-and-run receiver DUHHH. DDDDUUUUHHHH stop wasting him on vertical routes slants and digs duh aw why tf okbye dammit let Landry bail out Mayfield can't you tell the difference between him and OBJ or Ratley #!$@×?£#;!?!!!? dammit okbye
This might be part of the criticizm that Freddie Kitchens calls "assenine", but well...good for Freddie for having his boy's back, but shame on him for thinking we're all a bunch of idiots:
Steven came to court with exhibits A through Z, and he knows what he's talking about (like Jake Burns).
I won't even go into the details (too deep), but the Cliffnotes version is that the 2019 defenses are showing one coverage presnap, then changing it post-snap, and Baker is having trouble diagnosing it.
(Gotta toss in here that Bernie Kosar said they're using more zone/less man coverage; that's tougher to read quickly too).
Yeah I know that this contradicts the majority of what I said about Baker's processing speed and football intelligence, but I don't care, see?
Mr Ruiz has presented new and persuasive evidence, and if I refuse to accept it, I'm as bad as most other alleged analysts. If you can't admit that you were wrong, you are
Anyhow, Steve suggests some adjustments Freddie can make to help Baker out, and also says that he expects Mayfield to figure this out pretty soon.
I (blush-blush) told you guys about the QB "arms race", as young Quarterbacks typically do well at first, then hit a wall as Defenses adapt to them, then figure that out and do better again, until opposing defenses ambush them again, and so it goes.
Patrick Mahomes is the only exception to this rule in the modern era. I know that DeShaun Watson really didn't have any big setbacks (aside from his injury), but he's had his own ups and downs; he's not like Mahomes.
I need to point out that Mahomes has a better Offensive Line than Mayfield, and has a one year NFL head start on him in the same offensive system with the same Head Coach (this Andy Reid guy or something), but still wow. Just wow.
Tyreek who? Kareem who? Mahomes is just all that. Too bad the Browns never fixed those communications glitches and never got my "just draft Mahomes" texts and emails...
(Full disclosure I said the same about Watson)...
(Fuller disclosure I think da Bearss were idiots to trade up and draft Trubisky that high and STILL think trading down from Wentz was smart at that time...how they used all those draft picks is a separate issue) but I digress:
Steven Ruiz dinged my man Baker pretty hard here, but truth is truth.
Baker Mayfield remains as talented and intelligent as any QB in the NFL, but he's not as advanced as guys like me said he was yet. YET.
And again, with respect to Bernie and Steve, the Freddie Kitchens 2018 offense is ready and waiting. As Phil Simms points out, the 2019 Browns have abandoned it.
Steve is on the money in re the hurry-up. Mayfield kicks ass in the hurry-up. I know you can't run that all game long (or you wear your own defense out), but the 2019 Browns are downright Martonian, and never hurry up except in obvious and urgent situations.
...what the hell happened to Freddie Kitchens? See my earlier posts: I bet I nailed it. He's too damn HUMBLE!
But you gotta love the Quarterback and Head Coach defending eachother, and none of the other "big egos" are staging a mutinee (as predicted) yet.
If I'm Jarvis Landry, I want to go back to my "go-to"/bail-out/chain-moving role.
Steve Ruiz cited Landry's putrid 2019 conversion rate on targets, and it's because he's going vertical and trying to catch over his shoulder a lot.
When he came to the Browns from the Dolphins, Jarvis thought he could do that. Indeed, he did, sorta.
But he's not a vertical receiver. He's a catch-and-run receiver DUHHH. DDDDUUUUHHHH stop wasting him on vertical routes slants and digs duh aw why tf okbye dammit let Landry bail out Mayfield can't you tell the difference between him and OBJ or Ratley #!$@×?£#;!?!!!? dammit okbye
Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Kitchens 2018 Offense Worked. It Wasn't Broke. Why TF Did You "Fix" it? DUH
Geniuses think alike, as Gary Davenport demonstrates.
Gary says that Freddie Kitchens and Baker Mayfield are holding the Browns back.
I'll minimize the reduncificationalizing, but he is right.
Gary did mention how bad the Offensive Line has been in pass protection (*once again, PFF ranks it much higher in pass pro than Pro Football Outsiders--27th---but it looks to me like PFO is closer to the mark*).
But that's the thing! As Gary reminds you I've restated several times, you have to compensate for that poor protection, and Freddie...
...did it last season, and isn't doing it this season!?!?? We don't get it.
Do you get this? Remember when Freddie took over for Mywayorthehighway Haley last season? What did he do?
1: "Elephant"/max protect formations, be they 12, 21, or even 13 or 31 groupings (first number is RBs, second is TEs).
2: Short slants and crosses to get the ball out of Baker's hands.
3: Rollouts.
4: Runs, play-action off runs, RPOs.
Remember the wishbone, and Freddie's inverted version of same?
I repeat: Monken Monken Monken. (Question is: WTF happened to all that stuff?) (Sorry I am redundanationalizing my last couple posts, but nobody seems to get it yet).
This is something Freddie can fix in one week, because all that stuff is in the playbook and everybody except OBJ has run it).
I guess I have to repeat this too: Freddie is probably overdoing the "delegating" thing, and isn't naturally egotistical enough to "interfere" with the more experienced Todd Monken...even when...jeez, right?
Sadly, Gary is right about Mayfield, too. Jim Miller and other QBs have discussed this: A QB has an internal "clock", and if he is getting slammed (consistently) 2.5 seconds after the snap, alarm bells are going off in his head right then.
He will reflexively leave the pocket and/or throw prematurely.
While Baker and Freddie fight over who should take the blame (good for Baker btw) for this, it really is more on Freddie than Baker.
It's fine to send OBJ or Ratley vertical for 15+ yards before they break, but not the other guys.
I know Jarvis Landry wants to get downfield more, but it's time to use him as a security blanket again, and let Rashard Higgins slant and cross too, and have Chubb peel out into the flats more too.
Baker Mayfield can do everything Brian Sipe did, and it could all work just as well in 2019.
Now then: I'm not sure how exactly the Browns close loss to the Rams was so much worse than the Ravens close loss to the Chiefs, or why so many people think the Browns are doomed.
Lamar Jackson looked like the 2018 version vs the Chiefs, and the Chiefs defense isn't as good as the Browns' (who should have Ward and Randall back).
The Ravens defense is NOT as good as it was in 2018. The Ravens played a couple tomato cans the first 2 weeks, then got beat by the Chiefs, as the Browns got beat by the Superbowl Rams, and that adds up to the Ravens massacreing the Browns?
That's bad analysis. I can see the Ravens being favored (very good defense, unstoppable running game, Jackson the weapon etc), but where does this mismatch crap come from?
If Freddie Kitchens takes his offense back (and gets his head out), the Browns will beat the Ravens. If Freddie does not, they still have a chance.
Talk about hyperbole...
Come on, Freddie...
Gary says that Freddie Kitchens and Baker Mayfield are holding the Browns back.
I'll minimize the reduncificationalizing, but he is right.
Gary did mention how bad the Offensive Line has been in pass protection (*once again, PFF ranks it much higher in pass pro than Pro Football Outsiders--27th---but it looks to me like PFO is closer to the mark*).
But that's the thing! As Gary reminds you I've restated several times, you have to compensate for that poor protection, and Freddie...
...did it last season, and isn't doing it this season!?!?? We don't get it.
Do you get this? Remember when Freddie took over for Mywayorthehighway Haley last season? What did he do?
1: "Elephant"/max protect formations, be they 12, 21, or even 13 or 31 groupings (first number is RBs, second is TEs).
2: Short slants and crosses to get the ball out of Baker's hands.
3: Rollouts.
4: Runs, play-action off runs, RPOs.
Remember the wishbone, and Freddie's inverted version of same?
I repeat: Monken Monken Monken. (Question is: WTF happened to all that stuff?) (Sorry I am redundanationalizing my last couple posts, but nobody seems to get it yet).
This is something Freddie can fix in one week, because all that stuff is in the playbook and everybody except OBJ has run it).
I guess I have to repeat this too: Freddie is probably overdoing the "delegating" thing, and isn't naturally egotistical enough to "interfere" with the more experienced Todd Monken...even when...jeez, right?
Sadly, Gary is right about Mayfield, too. Jim Miller and other QBs have discussed this: A QB has an internal "clock", and if he is getting slammed (consistently) 2.5 seconds after the snap, alarm bells are going off in his head right then.
He will reflexively leave the pocket and/or throw prematurely.
While Baker and Freddie fight over who should take the blame (good for Baker btw) for this, it really is more on Freddie than Baker.
It's fine to send OBJ or Ratley vertical for 15+ yards before they break, but not the other guys.
I know Jarvis Landry wants to get downfield more, but it's time to use him as a security blanket again, and let Rashard Higgins slant and cross too, and have Chubb peel out into the flats more too.
Baker Mayfield can do everything Brian Sipe did, and it could all work just as well in 2019.
Now then: I'm not sure how exactly the Browns close loss to the Rams was so much worse than the Ravens close loss to the Chiefs, or why so many people think the Browns are doomed.
Lamar Jackson looked like the 2018 version vs the Chiefs, and the Chiefs defense isn't as good as the Browns' (who should have Ward and Randall back).
The Ravens defense is NOT as good as it was in 2018. The Ravens played a couple tomato cans the first 2 weeks, then got beat by the Chiefs, as the Browns got beat by the Superbowl Rams, and that adds up to the Ravens massacreing the Browns?
That's bad analysis. I can see the Ravens being favored (very good defense, unstoppable running game, Jackson the weapon etc), but where does this mismatch crap come from?
If Freddie Kitchens takes his offense back (and gets his head out), the Browns will beat the Ravens. If Freddie does not, they still have a chance.
Talk about hyperbole...
Come on, Freddie...
Monday, September 23, 2019
What's Wrong with the Cleveland Browns offense. I think. And How to Fix it.
The experts can't quite agree on what's wrong with the Browns' offense, but Rex Ryan calling Baker Mayfield "overrated as hell" was just plain stupid.
The guy who kinda shocked me was Ryan Clark, who brought up the Monken effect. Ryan suggested that Monken kinda messed up Jameis Winston, who is doing better this season.
Generally, Freddie Kitchens is (rightfully) under fire for some of his play-calling (draws on 4th and 9, 4 pass plays from 4 yards from the end zone etc), and so is Baker Mayfield.
But why would Mayfield, a 4-year college starter at the highest level, "regress" in year 2? With the addition of OBJ, how is that even possible?
You guys are so lucky you have me!
1: Baker's approach may be different, but it's not neccessarily "regression". He is irrefutably holding the ball way too long, but what makes you assume that this is all his fault?
The instant Freddie took over the offense in 2018, he made it "Baker-freindly", and Mayfield went from so-so to elite (and stayed there).
With Freddie as the Head Coach, and Beckham now on board, why would he regress?
If you think it's because Kevin Zeitler is no longer here, you don't grok football.
It's almost certainly the Monken effect. I need Jake Burns to really break this down for me, but my imression right now is that Freddie let Monken take over the offense unsupervised...
Big mistake. See my previous posts:
Freddie needs to take his offense back and let Baker be Baker. Run the 2018 offense and give Mayfield a smorgasborg of targets.
2: Pundits are going overboard here because the 2019 Browns failed to beat the Superbowl Rams in game 3 of 2019.
I mean I get that the Browns have been hyped, but how does losing a competitive game to a Superbowl team spell disaster?
The Rams are a mostly intact Superbowl team, and the Browns probably would have beaten them sans some idiotic playcalls.
I agree with Steve Smith that Freddie Kitchens will probably get smarter, and with Max Kellerman that Baker Mayfield will be an elite QB AGAIN by late this season.
Next up: the Ratbirds. Freddie take your offense back. Baker get in Freddie's face. NOW. Put your big boy pants on gdammit!
The 2019 Browns should beat the 2019 Ravens. They're more talented; better. A Kitchens offense will do the trick.
Freddie? FREDDIE? HEY! WAKE TF UP!!! You're about ready to blow this! Let Baker be Baker again.
Well I tried okbye.
The guy who kinda shocked me was Ryan Clark, who brought up the Monken effect. Ryan suggested that Monken kinda messed up Jameis Winston, who is doing better this season.
Generally, Freddie Kitchens is (rightfully) under fire for some of his play-calling (draws on 4th and 9, 4 pass plays from 4 yards from the end zone etc), and so is Baker Mayfield.
But why would Mayfield, a 4-year college starter at the highest level, "regress" in year 2? With the addition of OBJ, how is that even possible?
You guys are so lucky you have me!
1: Baker's approach may be different, but it's not neccessarily "regression". He is irrefutably holding the ball way too long, but what makes you assume that this is all his fault?
The instant Freddie took over the offense in 2018, he made it "Baker-freindly", and Mayfield went from so-so to elite (and stayed there).
With Freddie as the Head Coach, and Beckham now on board, why would he regress?
If you think it's because Kevin Zeitler is no longer here, you don't grok football.
It's almost certainly the Monken effect. I need Jake Burns to really break this down for me, but my imression right now is that Freddie let Monken take over the offense unsupervised...
Big mistake. See my previous posts:
Freddie needs to take his offense back and let Baker be Baker. Run the 2018 offense and give Mayfield a smorgasborg of targets.
2: Pundits are going overboard here because the 2019 Browns failed to beat the Superbowl Rams in game 3 of 2019.
I mean I get that the Browns have been hyped, but how does losing a competitive game to a Superbowl team spell disaster?
The Rams are a mostly intact Superbowl team, and the Browns probably would have beaten them sans some idiotic playcalls.
I agree with Steve Smith that Freddie Kitchens will probably get smarter, and with Max Kellerman that Baker Mayfield will be an elite QB AGAIN by late this season.
Next up: the Ratbirds. Freddie take your offense back. Baker get in Freddie's face. NOW. Put your big boy pants on gdammit!
The 2019 Browns should beat the 2019 Ravens. They're more talented; better. A Kitchens offense will do the trick.
Freddie? FREDDIE? HEY! WAKE TF UP!!! You're about ready to blow this! Let Baker be Baker again.
Well I tried okbye.
Sunday, September 22, 2019
Welcome to Cleveland, LA Lambs! You're doomed! DOOMED, I tell you!!!
I'm glad I took my time about admitting how fulla crap I was in re Lamar Jackson and the Ratbirds, because the KC Chiefs really gave them hell.
The Ravens ran all over the Chiefs (Ingram for 3 TDs). But the Chiefs defense managed to slow the Ravens offense down enough for the offense to establish a significant lead.
Lamar Jackson was back here on Earth all along; looking about the same as he did in 2018, and it got worse when he was trying to come back.
I was wrong to sell Jackson (the Quarterback) as short as I did, but not nearly as wrong as his first 2 games this season indicated.
The 2019 Chiefs defense is better than the 2018 iteration, but not that good.
The Ravens defense is also better than I had expected them to be. Holding the Chiefs to 33 points is nothing to be ashamed of...but still the tomato cans the Ravens faced in week 2 made them look better than they are.
The Ravens kinda passed their first big test, as they did manage to come back and make a game of it vs the KC Chiefs. So we have to take them seriously.
The Browns' acid test is coming up in the Superbowl Rams.
A bunch of local pundits are more optimistic than I am; predicting a Browns' victory.
...how wierd is this; I'm the "let's pump the brakes" guy!?! (I hear the "dee-dee-dee-dee" Twilight Zone theme here).
I hope you guys are right, but Damarius Randall and Denzel Ward are out, and this makes Cooper Kupp more of a problem.
Kupp is the main slot guy, and the most reliable receiver Goff has.
TJ Carrie should remain in the nickel role, but is no match for Cooper Kupp, and...just in general, the Free Safety (Murray? Whitehead?) will be challenged on every down, and...no Ward?
I love Greedy and Terrence on the outside, but Ward's absence hurts.
And OMG Gurly appears to be healthy again...well...ok Wilson will start and might be able to cover him (sorta) but you people don't seem to comprehend how accurate Jerod Goff is.
Myles Garrett is up against a top 5 Left Tackle too...
Mmmbut: I am optimistic that Freddie Kitchens will take his offense back, and return to the scheme that unleashed Baker Mayfield in 2018.
This "message undeliverable" glitch between me and Freddie or the Front Office persists, but fortunately scumbags read and regurgitate this Blog, so Freddie might have gotten my advice second hand in time for this game...although if he hasn't figured it out for himself, well...
Phil Simms says mix in shorter routes (quit going deep all the time) like Freddie did in 2018. Slants and crosses; hit the receivers in-stride or on the money and let THEM do the rest.
And run, and dump to Nick Chubb. Mayfield is GREAT at this stuff---why are you trying to make him a mad bomber!?!
JustPhil Simms my humble opinion...
To be clear, I believe that the 2019 Browns are as talented as the 2019 Rams and can beat them.
It's just that they are young and mistake-prone, and I'm not sure Freddie will have taken his offense back in time.
The Ravens ran all over the Chiefs (Ingram for 3 TDs). But the Chiefs defense managed to slow the Ravens offense down enough for the offense to establish a significant lead.
Lamar Jackson was back here on Earth all along; looking about the same as he did in 2018, and it got worse when he was trying to come back.
I was wrong to sell Jackson (the Quarterback) as short as I did, but not nearly as wrong as his first 2 games this season indicated.
The 2019 Chiefs defense is better than the 2018 iteration, but not that good.
The Ravens defense is also better than I had expected them to be. Holding the Chiefs to 33 points is nothing to be ashamed of...but still the tomato cans the Ravens faced in week 2 made them look better than they are.
The Ravens kinda passed their first big test, as they did manage to come back and make a game of it vs the KC Chiefs. So we have to take them seriously.
The Browns' acid test is coming up in the Superbowl Rams.
A bunch of local pundits are more optimistic than I am; predicting a Browns' victory.
...how wierd is this; I'm the "let's pump the brakes" guy!?! (I hear the "dee-dee-dee-dee" Twilight Zone theme here).
I hope you guys are right, but Damarius Randall and Denzel Ward are out, and this makes Cooper Kupp more of a problem.
Kupp is the main slot guy, and the most reliable receiver Goff has.
TJ Carrie should remain in the nickel role, but is no match for Cooper Kupp, and...just in general, the Free Safety (Murray? Whitehead?) will be challenged on every down, and...no Ward?
I love Greedy and Terrence on the outside, but Ward's absence hurts.
And OMG Gurly appears to be healthy again...well...ok Wilson will start and might be able to cover him (sorta) but you people don't seem to comprehend how accurate Jerod Goff is.
Myles Garrett is up against a top 5 Left Tackle too...
Mmmbut: I am optimistic that Freddie Kitchens will take his offense back, and return to the scheme that unleashed Baker Mayfield in 2018.
This "message undeliverable" glitch between me and Freddie or the Front Office persists, but fortunately scumbags read and regurgitate this Blog, so Freddie might have gotten my advice second hand in time for this game...although if he hasn't figured it out for himself, well...
Phil Simms says mix in shorter routes (quit going deep all the time) like Freddie did in 2018. Slants and crosses; hit the receivers in-stride or on the money and let THEM do the rest.
And run, and dump to Nick Chubb. Mayfield is GREAT at this stuff---why are you trying to make him a mad bomber!?!
Just
To be clear, I believe that the 2019 Browns are as talented as the 2019 Rams and can beat them.
It's just that they are young and mistake-prone, and I'm not sure Freddie will have taken his offense back in time.
Saturday, September 21, 2019
Offensive offensive Browns Schematics, Overthinking, the Monken Effect, Freddie's Ego
Got to address a few things I haven't had time to cover before:
1: Color man Tony Boselli (probable HOF Left Tackle) couldn't believe that Freddie Kitchens kept ALL his starters on the field, long after the Jets had no chance to come back.
You saw Nick Chubb go to the tent with a possible concussion, right? So did Tony. That's when he asked why tf he was still in the game at all.
Then Nick comes out of the tent (whew!) and goes right back into the game! Tony about lost his mind.
Me too.
Unlike Tony, I can see how Baker Mayfield and OBJ might need more reps, as Baker has been missing and hesitating too much. But not a running back---that's idiotic. Freddie? I am right and you are wrong.
The chemistry/reps theory is shaky too. Is this more important than keeping your best skill players healthy and rested on a short week with the Rams looming?
By the way I really like Boselli as an announcer. He's no diplomat.
Possibly Freddie is? Maybe he felt like pulling his stars would be insulting to the Jets?
And Freddie? Wouldn't it be a good idea to get your backups some reps in a real game? Duh?
2: More Freddie-bashing: Phil Simms wonders why Baker Mayfield is in the shotgun all the time.
Phil says that in 2018 (post-Haley) Baker was under center a lot, and the Browns used play action more.
Simms also asked why tf Mayfield is standing there yammering and pointing all the time, using up the whole play-clock.
Phil thinks that Monken and Freddie have overcomplicated everything. I paraphrase, but Simms said "Sometimes you just need to line up and run the damn play".
Phil didn't go into any more depth on this, but luckily you have me:
This is the "Monken effect". This accounts for all the offensive changes that Phil Simms finds offensive.
Freddie Kitchens needs to stop being all civilized and gentlemanly and stuff and take his offense back right tf now.
I thank another blunt force analyst for telling me what's wrong here.
Todd Monken is an excellent OC, but Kitchens is either just plain better, or else has a better handle on how to max out the players he has.
Freddie, this is your offense, and you need to go back to what you did in 2018 and cut the fancy frilly crap (in Phil Simms' opinion).
As an intelligent analyst, I am getting the general impression that Freddie Kitchens might be too open to other opinions, and willing to delegate.
I'm kind of an expert on this. The most effective bosses are willing to delegate, and open to input from their underlings. They are not egocentric.
But that can get out of hand. If Phil Simms is correct, Freddie has allowed Monken to degrade his offense; ceded too much control to a guy he respects the hell out of and who, in reality, had a better resume than he himself did.
Freddie Kitchens is more aware than anybody else about his lack of experience, you see? He rose to the challenge big-time in 2018 as an Offensive Coordinator, and probably surprised even himself.
Then he finds himself a Head Coach. Wow.
Freddie is NOT a control-freak or egomaniac, and might well be in something like a state of shock here, see?
So when Dorsey hired Todd Monken, who engineered one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL in Tampa Bay, Freddie was relieved, you see?
"Cool! I got Monken and Wilks! I can do press conferences and all that other bs and still call plays on game day and let these guys handle the schemes and stuff. Dorsey has got me covered, and I can learn from these guys and grow into this job."
-snap-snap- still with me here? Freddie Kitchens should be discovering that he is a better OC than Todd Monken.
Freddie needs to buy into himself right tf now and reclaim control of his offense, or he'll get himself fired.
And he is better than Monken! FREDDIE TAKE YOUR OFFENSE BACK!!!
Njoku broke his wrist, and, for whatever reason, Seth DeValve is gone, so that's it for the TE/WR hybrids on this roster.
This is possibly another aspect of the "Monken Effect":
In fairness, Todd Monken made the most of a Tampa Bay offense that he was stuck with, so no sentient analyst should label him based on what he did there, however:
He ran 3 and 4-wides a lot, and his Tight Ends were mainly blockers (when they were on the field at all).
Again: I'm not bashing Todd Monken.
Anyhoo, sans Rodney DeValvefield, Njoku's absence fundamentally transforms the Browns' whole offense.
...sorta, since the 2019 offense was Monkonian in the first place; 3-wide, one back...I could get real boring here but am sparing you...
In order to beat the Rams in Cleveland on sunday night, inPhil Simms my humble opinion the Browns need to do this:
1: Run (duh) amap. But also: I think that EVERY big run by a Browns RB has come off zone-blocking HINT H I N T and G-power (etc) has produced stuffs, ok?
2: (Thanks Phil Simms) Mayfield under center more (sets up play-action) should work better, even with that freak Arnold coming up the gut...inmy Phil's humble opinion.
3: INDEED Baker "trusting" the system and his receivers and throwing the ball to a spot on-time (instead of maybe holding out for OBJ to shake loose deep)
3a: Mayfield ignoring names and just throwing to whoever is the most open the deepest (even if he isn't OBJ, see?)
4: With all due respect to Todd Monken, Freddie Kitchens needs to run this offense from bottom to top. Vs a Superbowl defense, Freddie needs to recognize that he is better than Monken, and do what he did in 2018.
5: In general, dink and dunk more. Remember Lindy Infante? Ok most of you don't, but in general, this means can't-miss 5-8 (actual) yard passes to running backs...
Lindy called these "long handoffs": Defenses can't assign people to cover running backs. All they can do is blitze, to try to keep that RB in to block...
But the Browns screwed that up with Greg Pruitt, Earnest Byner, and others.
Nick Chubb (much like Kareem Hunt) can do that. And Baker Mayfield (much like Brian Sipe/Bernie Kosar) can deliver (if he can overcome his bloodthirsty manic greed).
Don't get me wrong in re Baker Mayfield: He's not mentally impaired, and will adapt quickly.
...now then: Mack Wilson over Kirksey is probably an upgrade.
No offense to Dan Justik, but nobody on the current roster will "replace" David Njoku.
The offensive scheme will be tweaked, since obviously no Tight End on the roster can do what Njoku can as a receiver...obviously...duh...now that we got rid of that DeValve bumb, anyway...
It now looks like Rashard Higgins will be back, so Baker is eyeball deep in receivers...
I'm sick of this. Njoku wasn't integral in the first place. Mayfield doesn'f need big targets....nevermind okbye
1: Color man Tony Boselli (probable HOF Left Tackle) couldn't believe that Freddie Kitchens kept ALL his starters on the field, long after the Jets had no chance to come back.
You saw Nick Chubb go to the tent with a possible concussion, right? So did Tony. That's when he asked why tf he was still in the game at all.
Then Nick comes out of the tent (whew!) and goes right back into the game! Tony about lost his mind.
Me too.
Unlike Tony, I can see how Baker Mayfield and OBJ might need more reps, as Baker has been missing and hesitating too much. But not a running back---that's idiotic. Freddie? I am right and you are wrong.
The chemistry/reps theory is shaky too. Is this more important than keeping your best skill players healthy and rested on a short week with the Rams looming?
By the way I really like Boselli as an announcer. He's no diplomat.
Possibly Freddie is? Maybe he felt like pulling his stars would be insulting to the Jets?
And Freddie? Wouldn't it be a good idea to get your backups some reps in a real game? Duh?
2: More Freddie-bashing: Phil Simms wonders why Baker Mayfield is in the shotgun all the time.
Phil says that in 2018 (post-Haley) Baker was under center a lot, and the Browns used play action more.
Simms also asked why tf Mayfield is standing there yammering and pointing all the time, using up the whole play-clock.
Phil thinks that Monken and Freddie have overcomplicated everything. I paraphrase, but Simms said "Sometimes you just need to line up and run the damn play".
Phil didn't go into any more depth on this, but luckily you have me:
This is the "Monken effect". This accounts for all the offensive changes that Phil Simms finds offensive.
Freddie Kitchens needs to stop being all civilized and gentlemanly and stuff and take his offense back right tf now.
I thank another blunt force analyst for telling me what's wrong here.
Todd Monken is an excellent OC, but Kitchens is either just plain better, or else has a better handle on how to max out the players he has.
Freddie, this is your offense, and you need to go back to what you did in 2018 and cut the fancy frilly crap (in Phil Simms' opinion).
As an intelligent analyst, I am getting the general impression that Freddie Kitchens might be too open to other opinions, and willing to delegate.
I'm kind of an expert on this. The most effective bosses are willing to delegate, and open to input from their underlings. They are not egocentric.
But that can get out of hand. If Phil Simms is correct, Freddie has allowed Monken to degrade his offense; ceded too much control to a guy he respects the hell out of and who, in reality, had a better resume than he himself did.
Freddie Kitchens is more aware than anybody else about his lack of experience, you see? He rose to the challenge big-time in 2018 as an Offensive Coordinator, and probably surprised even himself.
Then he finds himself a Head Coach. Wow.
Freddie is NOT a control-freak or egomaniac, and might well be in something like a state of shock here, see?
So when Dorsey hired Todd Monken, who engineered one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL in Tampa Bay, Freddie was relieved, you see?
"Cool! I got Monken and Wilks! I can do press conferences and all that other bs and still call plays on game day and let these guys handle the schemes and stuff. Dorsey has got me covered, and I can learn from these guys and grow into this job."
-snap-snap- still with me here? Freddie Kitchens should be discovering that he is a better OC than Todd Monken.
Freddie needs to buy into himself right tf now and reclaim control of his offense, or he'll get himself fired.
And he is better than Monken! FREDDIE TAKE YOUR OFFENSE BACK!!!
Njoku broke his wrist, and, for whatever reason, Seth DeValve is gone, so that's it for the TE/WR hybrids on this roster.
This is possibly another aspect of the "Monken Effect":
In fairness, Todd Monken made the most of a Tampa Bay offense that he was stuck with, so no sentient analyst should label him based on what he did there, however:
He ran 3 and 4-wides a lot, and his Tight Ends were mainly blockers (when they were on the field at all).
Again: I'm not bashing Todd Monken.
Anyhoo, sans Rodney DeValvefield, Njoku's absence fundamentally transforms the Browns' whole offense.
...sorta, since the 2019 offense was Monkonian in the first place; 3-wide, one back...I could get real boring here but am sparing you...
In order to beat the Rams in Cleveland on sunday night, in
1: Run (duh) amap. But also: I think that EVERY big run by a Browns RB has come off zone-blocking HINT H I N T and G-power (etc) has produced stuffs, ok?
2: (Thanks Phil Simms) Mayfield under center more (sets up play-action) should work better, even with that freak Arnold coming up the gut...in
3: INDEED Baker "trusting" the system and his receivers and throwing the ball to a spot on-time (instead of maybe holding out for OBJ to shake loose deep)
3a: Mayfield ignoring names and just throwing to whoever is the most open the deepest (even if he isn't OBJ, see?)
4: With all due respect to Todd Monken, Freddie Kitchens needs to run this offense from bottom to top. Vs a Superbowl defense, Freddie needs to recognize that he is better than Monken, and do what he did in 2018.
5: In general, dink and dunk more. Remember Lindy Infante? Ok most of you don't, but in general, this means can't-miss 5-8 (actual) yard passes to running backs...
Lindy called these "long handoffs": Defenses can't assign people to cover running backs. All they can do is blitze, to try to keep that RB in to block...
But the Browns screwed that up with Greg Pruitt, Earnest Byner, and others.
Nick Chubb (much like Kareem Hunt) can do that. And Baker Mayfield (much like Brian Sipe/Bernie Kosar) can deliver (if he can overcome his bloodthirsty manic greed).
Don't get me wrong in re Baker Mayfield: He's not mentally impaired, and will adapt quickly.
...now then: Mack Wilson over Kirksey is probably an upgrade.
No offense to Dan Justik, but nobody on the current roster will "replace" David Njoku.
The offensive scheme will be tweaked, since obviously no Tight End on the roster can do what Njoku can as a receiver...obviously...duh...now that we got rid of that DeValve bumb, anyway...
It now looks like Rashard Higgins will be back, so Baker is eyeball deep in receivers...
I'm sick of this. Njoku wasn't integral in the first place. Mayfield doesn'f need big targets....nevermind okbye
Thursday, September 19, 2019
Baker Mayfield's Issues, Browns vs Rams, Overcoming Mediocrity, and Stuff
1: What about Baker?:
Mayfield has been holding the ball too long, and has sometimes been inaccurate.
He himself says that he needs to trust the system and his teammates. This of course refers to the timing aspect of this offense; Baker has to throw before receivers make their moves, or look back towards him.
But the thing is, he was doing pretty well with that in 2018, and throughout his college carreer, he threw "with anticipation".
One smart analyst thinks that OBJ has made Mayfield greedy, and that he holds the ball waiting for OBJ to get loose deep. I don't know.
But Bernie Kosar says that both opposing teams this season ran mostly zone coverage, and that it takes longer for things to open up vs zone.
That surprised me, and I still don't get it, but it was Bernie, right?
Bernie was pretty adament, and said that against zone, "you have to protect longer" and stuff.
I think I'm beginning to understand: A receiver can't "blow by" a zone vertically. The only thing that's open quickly is a dart underneath, which is probably nailed immediately by a defender who never took a backward step.
Vs man coverage (oh now I get it) the reads are clear (at least on the outside). The QB gets to see which way the Free Safety moves to determine...ahem well for a sharpshooter like Mayfield, he can beat tight coverage vs a DB who is running with his target.
Vs zone, the reads are much fuzzier, and the crossing routes are stifled by human road-blocks; they have to stop cold ("sit down") to catch passes, because if they don't, they end up in a hospital.
...well there is more to this, but I seem to have similar technical glitches communicating with Bernie as I do with the Browns for some reason, so I'll get back to you on that.
...anyway, Bernie says Baker will be fine.
Nick Snook says that the Browns actually played well vs the Jets. That's a good sign, since it includes RG Eric Kush. Nick cites some PFF stats which are encouraging.
Baker held the ball too long; it wasn't about the Offensive Line.
Naturally, when the Rams come to town, everything will be different.
As Bernie Kosar said, this will be the real test. Bernie made no predictions (duh), but did say that he expected Baker Mayfield...
Bernie is a politician, and I can't nail him down.
I believe that if BK were on Truth Serum, he would have said something like this:
Baker Mayfield will remain aggressive and do better this week than he did last week, despite confronting a better defense with Aaron Donald and a scary passrush.
No Njoku etc but Bernie expects Baker to not suck or choke.
Bernie didn't stick his extremely short neck out beyond that, but I will:
The Browns should be able to run the ball on the Rams, sorta. Mayfield (with Higgins back and a mental reset involving Landry) should get rid of the ball (accurately) quickly under the lights.
(*it could be disasterous, if his receivers blow their routes/make the wrong moves, but that's the weakness of timing offenses. At least he should have Higgins back, and appreciate Landry more*).
The Browns' defense is rounding into form, and---damn last call I'll be back okbye
Mayfield has been holding the ball too long, and has sometimes been inaccurate.
He himself says that he needs to trust the system and his teammates. This of course refers to the timing aspect of this offense; Baker has to throw before receivers make their moves, or look back towards him.
But the thing is, he was doing pretty well with that in 2018, and throughout his college carreer, he threw "with anticipation".
One smart analyst thinks that OBJ has made Mayfield greedy, and that he holds the ball waiting for OBJ to get loose deep. I don't know.
But Bernie Kosar says that both opposing teams this season ran mostly zone coverage, and that it takes longer for things to open up vs zone.
That surprised me, and I still don't get it, but it was Bernie, right?
Bernie was pretty adament, and said that against zone, "you have to protect longer" and stuff.
I think I'm beginning to understand: A receiver can't "blow by" a zone vertically. The only thing that's open quickly is a dart underneath, which is probably nailed immediately by a defender who never took a backward step.
Vs man coverage (oh now I get it) the reads are clear (at least on the outside). The QB gets to see which way the Free Safety moves to determine...ahem well for a sharpshooter like Mayfield, he can beat tight coverage vs a DB who is running with his target.
Vs zone, the reads are much fuzzier, and the crossing routes are stifled by human road-blocks; they have to stop cold ("sit down") to catch passes, because if they don't, they end up in a hospital.
...well there is more to this, but I seem to have similar technical glitches communicating with Bernie as I do with the Browns for some reason, so I'll get back to you on that.
...anyway, Bernie says Baker will be fine.
Nick Snook says that the Browns actually played well vs the Jets. That's a good sign, since it includes RG Eric Kush. Nick cites some PFF stats which are encouraging.
Baker held the ball too long; it wasn't about the Offensive Line.
Naturally, when the Rams come to town, everything will be different.
As Bernie Kosar said, this will be the real test. Bernie made no predictions (duh), but did say that he expected Baker Mayfield...
Bernie is a politician, and I can't nail him down.
I believe that if BK were on Truth Serum, he would have said something like this:
Baker Mayfield will remain aggressive and do better this week than he did last week, despite confronting a better defense with Aaron Donald and a scary passrush.
No Njoku etc but Bernie expects Baker to not suck or choke.
Bernie didn't stick his extremely short neck out beyond that, but I will:
The Browns should be able to run the ball on the Rams, sorta. Mayfield (with Higgins back and a mental reset involving Landry) should get rid of the ball (accurately) quickly under the lights.
(*it could be disasterous, if his receivers blow their routes/make the wrong moves, but that's the weakness of timing offenses. At least he should have Higgins back, and appreciate Landry more*).
The Browns' defense is rounding into form, and---damn last call I'll be back okbye
Saturday, September 14, 2019
Trade for Minkah Fitzpatrick? Browns vs Jets Predictions. Good Analysis
It never fails: Every time a player on another team asks to be traded, some fans in Cleveland want to trade for him.
So it is with disgruntled Dolphin Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick was a first round draft pick, and will have 2 years (plus a club option third) on his rookie contract after 2019.
Current top slot corner TJ Carrie is scheduled to make over 4 million more bucks in 2020.
Fitzpatrick was drafted in the first round because he could play anywhere in the secondary, including Free Safety.
Like a bunch of other Dolphins players, Minkah sees a rebuild in progress. The Coaches and players will never deliberately "tank" a season, but the Fins' Front Office has dumped a lot of veteran talent, even moreso thanPaul Depodesta Sashi Brown did a couple years ago.
But Minkah's assertion is that he doesn't like how he is being used in the Defense.
He kinda has a point, as he's mainly the slot corner, and not a safety or perimeter corner.
Those who think Minkah Fitzpatrick was a bust are wrong, but so are those who think he's played up to his 11th overall draft status.
One position the Dolphins were crowded at was Safety, so he wasn't expected to start there as a rookie anyway. He was drafted to play wherever the Coaches could find room for him.
That turned out to be over the slot.
As a rookie in 2018, Fitzpatrick graded out at a little over 61 (average) as a cornerback per PFF.
His best days are in front of him, and given his salary, his youth, and that cap-freindly salary, we can count on John Dorsey kicking those tires.
The hangup is, of course, what the Dophins would demand for this player.
They'll "expect" a first round pick, which of course is a bluff.
The Fins are rebuilding, and Minkah Fitzpatrick is actually one of the young players they want to keep.
The fact that they granted Minkah's agent permission to seek a trade was mostly a PR move. If they do trade this guy, he won't come cheap.
They have a good chance at getting a second rounder from somebody, or a third and maybe a 4th if they accept it.
If I were the Dolphins, I'm holding onto this ascending young player; he is part of the rebuild, and is already here. If I'm them, the least I'd accept from the Browns (who should draft in the bottom third of each round) would be a 2nd and 3rd round pick (or the equivelants).
John Dorsey and Paul DePodesta still have to consider it. TJ Carrie is one reason, and Damarius Randall (whose contract expires after 2019) is another. A third is that Minkah could be an upgrade over Morgan Burnett.
Would it be worth a 2nd and 3rd round pick to bring Minkah in here?
Well, Dorsey has a year of pro tape on the kid, and should be able to make a massively more informed decision about what he can do and will become.
What could Dorsey get with those 2 picks?
Even the best talent evaluators miss, especially after the first round. Austin Corbett, anyone?
But then, Nick Chubb was a big "hit". DE Chad Thomas (3rd) hasn't accomplished anything. But then you can see how Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill worked out.
Fitzpatrick is the safe bet, and fills an imminant (if not immediate) need.
But those 2 draft picks...nevermind. If I'm the Fins, they wouldn't be enough.
Minkah Fitzpatrick can cause distractions and mess up the locker room, but has no other leverage. I would tell him "We spent a first round pick on you, and you are in our long term plans. Be patient, kid. Your time will come."
In short, this trade is unlikely.
Matt Josephs does a terrific job analyzing the Browns vs Jets Monday Night Football matchup.
This guy is refreshingly objective, as well as insightful and thorough. He may have been trained to think with his brain! He sure didn't learn that in urinalism school but I digress:
In my own humble opinion, the loss of CJ Mosely is more significant than the loss of Sam Darnold. Matt overthinks the Quarterback stuff:
Sam Darnold is still "raw", and at this point in time, NOT better than Trevor Siemian. (Talk about hype!)
CJ was the Baltimore Ratbird who sealed the Ravens win in game 16 with a leaping interception, and is one of the best all-around linebackers in the NFL.
CJ would have been on Njoku or Chubb in coverage a lot, along with running and hitting, and occasionally blitzing.
But Matt is right about the intangibles, kicking games, and everything else, including the final score (Browns 27 Jets 13).
Well...really more like Brownss 55, Jetss minuss 13, but I won't quibble.
Now...Ebineezer Bell was servicable in game 1 with the Jets, but Matt (along with everybody else except me) falls for that hype.
I (sigh) repeat: The Steelers had a great Quarterback, and possibly THE BEST Offensive Line in football, along with one of the best OLine coaches in history.
The Jets? Not so much (knock-knock anybody home!?!)
Ebineezer ooo, scary! All his prior stats vs the Browns are meaningless. He is a very talented back who can line up at WR and stuff, but look at what his Steelers' replacements did in his absence!
Oo scary! He hangs back and waits for his blocks to develop! Well...Steelers...Jets? Yeah I can't wait to see Ebineezer hanging back there like that with these players in the trenches.
Siemian will "find" Bell as a receiver, and he'll do more damage there than he would have with Darnold, but you people? Ebineezer Bell aint all that. Nick Chubb will prove the better player over time. Mark my words.
Bell and Antonio Brown are both selfish, greedy mercenaries and despicable people, but at least Brown was smart enough to land with Tom Brady and the Patriots.
Bell? Asshole and stupid! Stay tuned!
More on this: Like OBJ, Antonio Brown will have to deal with not being THEEE man, and making less money than he would have made, and probably being kicked to the curb in 2020 when he refuses to renegotiate, but at least he might get a ring.
But I digress: Ebineezer Bell is overrated. He has not faced THIS defense, without the Steelers' Offensive Line to hide behind.
Think with your BRAIN.
Bold predictions:
Mayfield will run for 1 TD.
Chubb will gain over 120 total yards and 1 TD.
Njoku will catch at least 1 TD pass.
Seimian will get sacked at least 5 times, and throw at least 2 interceptions.
Rodney Chubbfield will outperform Ebineezer Bell.
The Browns offense will gain over 400 yards and 3 TDs.
So it is with disgruntled Dolphin Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick was a first round draft pick, and will have 2 years (plus a club option third) on his rookie contract after 2019.
Current top slot corner TJ Carrie is scheduled to make over 4 million more bucks in 2020.
Fitzpatrick was drafted in the first round because he could play anywhere in the secondary, including Free Safety.
Like a bunch of other Dolphins players, Minkah sees a rebuild in progress. The Coaches and players will never deliberately "tank" a season, but the Fins' Front Office has dumped a lot of veteran talent, even moreso than
But Minkah's assertion is that he doesn't like how he is being used in the Defense.
He kinda has a point, as he's mainly the slot corner, and not a safety or perimeter corner.
Those who think Minkah Fitzpatrick was a bust are wrong, but so are those who think he's played up to his 11th overall draft status.
One position the Dolphins were crowded at was Safety, so he wasn't expected to start there as a rookie anyway. He was drafted to play wherever the Coaches could find room for him.
That turned out to be over the slot.
As a rookie in 2018, Fitzpatrick graded out at a little over 61 (average) as a cornerback per PFF.
His best days are in front of him, and given his salary, his youth, and that cap-freindly salary, we can count on John Dorsey kicking those tires.
The hangup is, of course, what the Dophins would demand for this player.
They'll "expect" a first round pick, which of course is a bluff.
The Fins are rebuilding, and Minkah Fitzpatrick is actually one of the young players they want to keep.
The fact that they granted Minkah's agent permission to seek a trade was mostly a PR move. If they do trade this guy, he won't come cheap.
They have a good chance at getting a second rounder from somebody, or a third and maybe a 4th if they accept it.
If I were the Dolphins, I'm holding onto this ascending young player; he is part of the rebuild, and is already here. If I'm them, the least I'd accept from the Browns (who should draft in the bottom third of each round) would be a 2nd and 3rd round pick (or the equivelants).
John Dorsey and Paul DePodesta still have to consider it. TJ Carrie is one reason, and Damarius Randall (whose contract expires after 2019) is another. A third is that Minkah could be an upgrade over Morgan Burnett.
Would it be worth a 2nd and 3rd round pick to bring Minkah in here?
Well, Dorsey has a year of pro tape on the kid, and should be able to make a massively more informed decision about what he can do and will become.
What could Dorsey get with those 2 picks?
Even the best talent evaluators miss, especially after the first round. Austin Corbett, anyone?
But then, Nick Chubb was a big "hit". DE Chad Thomas (3rd) hasn't accomplished anything. But then you can see how Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill worked out.
Fitzpatrick is the safe bet, and fills an imminant (if not immediate) need.
But those 2 draft picks...nevermind. If I'm the Fins, they wouldn't be enough.
Minkah Fitzpatrick can cause distractions and mess up the locker room, but has no other leverage. I would tell him "We spent a first round pick on you, and you are in our long term plans. Be patient, kid. Your time will come."
In short, this trade is unlikely.
Matt Josephs does a terrific job analyzing the Browns vs Jets Monday Night Football matchup.
This guy is refreshingly objective, as well as insightful and thorough. He may have been trained to think with his brain! He sure didn't learn that in urinalism school but I digress:
In my own humble opinion, the loss of CJ Mosely is more significant than the loss of Sam Darnold. Matt overthinks the Quarterback stuff:
Sam Darnold is still "raw", and at this point in time, NOT better than Trevor Siemian. (Talk about hype!)
CJ was the Baltimore Ratbird who sealed the Ravens win in game 16 with a leaping interception, and is one of the best all-around linebackers in the NFL.
CJ would have been on Njoku or Chubb in coverage a lot, along with running and hitting, and occasionally blitzing.
But Matt is right about the intangibles, kicking games, and everything else, including the final score (Browns 27 Jets 13).
Well...really more like Brownss 55, Jetss minuss 13, but I won't quibble.
Now...Ebineezer Bell was servicable in game 1 with the Jets, but Matt (along with everybody else except me) falls for that hype.
I (sigh) repeat: The Steelers had a great Quarterback, and possibly THE BEST Offensive Line in football, along with one of the best OLine coaches in history.
The Jets? Not so much (knock-knock anybody home!?!)
Ebineezer ooo, scary! All his prior stats vs the Browns are meaningless. He is a very talented back who can line up at WR and stuff, but look at what his Steelers' replacements did in his absence!
Oo scary! He hangs back and waits for his blocks to develop! Well...Steelers...Jets? Yeah I can't wait to see Ebineezer hanging back there like that with these players in the trenches.
Siemian will "find" Bell as a receiver, and he'll do more damage there than he would have with Darnold, but you people? Ebineezer Bell aint all that. Nick Chubb will prove the better player over time. Mark my words.
Bell and Antonio Brown are both selfish, greedy mercenaries and despicable people, but at least Brown was smart enough to land with Tom Brady and the Patriots.
Bell? Asshole and stupid! Stay tuned!
More on this: Like OBJ, Antonio Brown will have to deal with not being THEEE man, and making less money than he would have made, and probably being kicked to the curb in 2020 when he refuses to renegotiate, but at least he might get a ring.
But I digress: Ebineezer Bell is overrated. He has not faced THIS defense, without the Steelers' Offensive Line to hide behind.
Think with your BRAIN.
Bold predictions:
Mayfield will run for 1 TD.
Chubb will gain over 120 total yards and 1 TD.
Njoku will catch at least 1 TD pass.
Seimian will get sacked at least 5 times, and throw at least 2 interceptions.
Rodney Chubbfield will outperform Ebineezer Bell.
The Browns offense will gain over 400 yards and 3 TDs.
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