Sunday, July 7, 2019

Terrible Cleveland Browns Mal-analysis: Correction City WOW

I have to break my rule and include a link to this terrible article by Josh Edwards.

Josh is usually pretty good, but here and there he writes a real clunker.  I'll simply itemize the corrections here.  I guess you shouldn't bother with the link and skip the huge swings and misses:

1: The "initial report" that the Browns were looking to trade Duke came from either me or somebody like me as a guess/hypothesis, and not from the team.

I became a "source close to the team" blahblah for their convenience.

2: The dead cap hit is irrelevant.  Why does nobody get this?  The money comes off the 2019 cap, and that's it!  As long as you can afford the one-time hit, 2020 is a reset.

3: If you comprehend this, and understand that Duke's trade value will decline over time, you see that an early trade is more likely.

4: This didn't start with the Kareem Hunt signing.  It started as of Game 1 in 2018.  

We can understand why Duke was limited to third and longs after Nick Chubb took over, but the same was true behind Carlos Hyde.

After a terrific 2017 and a nice raise and extention, Duke fell off the map!  I expected him to be frustrated and dissatisfied.

Again, Freddie can repeat that "we have a plan for Duke" all he wants, but Duke knows that this means he's the third and long running back, and he'll mostly pass-protect even then.

Even before 2018, Jarvis Landry was brought in, and Callaway was drafted--that was pretty much that for Duke lining up in the slot or wide.

5: Dontrell Hilliard is "unproven", but he's a R U N N I N G. B A C K.  Most college running backs need a lot of work on pass-protection, and to varying degrees on receiving skills, but the running part is either there or is not.

This is why so many of them become insta-stars as rookies.  Josh clearly doesn't get this: The Browns already know exactly who Hilliard is, and what he can do.

I do have to repeat here that Baker Mayfield was a butthead for picking on Duke at all.  

I'm sick of all this "sensitivity training" bullcrap, but would make an exception in Baker's case.  Can't Mister first overall pick walk a few feet in Duke's shoes?

Duke is watching his carreer go down the drain, and is trying to salvage what's left of it.  How can anyone blame him?

Joe Gilbert is close to Jake Burns as one of my favorite "go-to" X/O//Film Room/Analytics analysts, but I had a few minor issues with his ranking of the Browns' position groups for 2019:

First, he only has 3 tiers: Top, Middle, and Lowest.  If you put that in the context of the 32 NFL teams, each tier represents almost 11 teams.  That's way too general!

Joe has the Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and edge defenders in the top tier, then ranks the cornerbacks in the middle tier.

I can't fathom this, even if Joe means near the top of that 11-team middle tier of his.

I couldn't see his rationale in what he wrote, either, as Joe gave Denzel his props and went on to say that he and Greedy Williams could be "one of" the best Corner tandems in the NFL.

But then, Joe refers to Terrence Mitchell and TJ Carrie as "really good backups".

No, Joe, Terrence Mitchell was a really good STARTER.  I'm sure that Joe would have to rank Terrence among the top 21 starting cornerbacks in 2018; ergo top tier.

Joe mentions that Carrie is the nickel, but that's all.  How good is he, Joe?  Well, I'm guessing he's above average...do a film room on him, ok?

Gilbert even includes Whitehead and Murray as situational corners.

This is obviously a top 11 group of cornerbacks, Joe.  What were you thinking?

You're welcome.

Next in Joe's middle tier is the interior Offensive Line.  Well, Bitonio and Tretter are elite, but I guess with the question marks at Right Guard it's hard to guesstimate.

...Still...Tretter/Bitinio/X not in the top 11?  Wouldn't the Right Guard have to suck really bad?  Kalis, Kush, and Witzman are at least mediocre, so...well, Joe?

Safeties in the middle 11 too...tough one here.  Randall is the only proven stud, but he is obviously in the top 11 himself...Burnett as a Strong Safety with Green Bay was kinda average...nah here we go again Joe: Burnett+Randall=top 11 why are you doing this?  Math wasn't your best subject, was it?

Linebackers?  I guess so.  Too many variables here.  Shobert made the Pro Bowl but led in missed tackles, Kirksey is one of PFF's worst, ditto Taylor, Wilson and Takitaki are new, and Genard Avery is with the edge guys for the moment.

Joe was brutal with the Tight Ends.  He's the first guy I've heard say that Demetrius Harris had "very" questionable hands, describe what DeValve has done as "small hints of his talent, but little or no consistency so far".

Ok first Njoku IS easily a top 11 Tight End.  DeValve IS consistent when he's on the field.  Orson Charles SUCKED as a run-blocker per PFF...

Jeez Joe lists Harris as Njoku's top backup!

Well no, Joe, Demetrius Harris won't line up outside and run WR routes.  That's DeValve.  While Dorsey has challenged Njoku to become a better in-line blocker, and given the addition of OBJ and emergence of Callaway, he'll need to, but:

Freddie Kitchens won't be deleting his multi-Tight End groups just because Todd Monken is here now, and DeValve is unmistakeably Njoku's backup...

I thought Joe was a film-room guy like Jake Burns!  Well, anybody can have a bad day.

Joe ranks Special Teams in the middle 11, and once again, I think he's lowballing:

Jake isn't sold on Joseph, and nervous about Seibert as well.  Fair enough, but he discounts the fact that Preifer will have access to the whole roster, and several free agents and rookies with outstanding Special Teams ability were brought in; there should be at least a 5-man dedicated full-time "core" playing on every unit.

I really like this "Scottish Hammer" Hulk punter and don't see why Joseph should go off the rails after how he performed ever since his first disasterous game in 2018...

That's not top 11?  ELEVEN TEAMS will have better Special Teams than the Browns, Joe, really?

OMFG Joe ranks the Defensive Tackles in the lowest tier!!! He really loves Ogunjobi and Richardson, but thinks everybody behind them sucks.

Here I think Joe is giving the backups the DeValve treatment.  He mentions the probability that some of the Defensive Ends can play inside situationally, but only dismissively.

Well, I want to see Chad Thomas 2.0 here first.  Seems like Joe has pre-deleted him, but Chad came out as a DT/DE hybrid at 6'5", 281 lbs.

Given the writing on the Browns "edge" wall for Chad, he should be returning bigger and stronger this season; he was never going to start for this team, so he has to be a utility guy.

As a DT, he's a penetrator, and he has length and range.

Joe is even selling the other backup DTs short here...but even if he's right in jiggling the handle on the lot of them, with Ogunjobi and Richardson, how does he rank the Browns' DTs in the bottom 11!?!

Joe ranks Offensive Tackle in the bottom 11.  I agree.

I've been telling you all along that the extra Tight Ends, Mayfield, and Kitchens made Robinson and Hubbard look better than they were.

Joe is right that this is THE position most in need of an upgrade on this team.

Anyway, I would simply grade each position group on the 2019 Browns in roughly 6 "tiers", from top 5 to bottom 5 vs other NFL teams.

QB: Top 10.  Baker Mayfield is already arguably top 5, but depth is questionable.

RB: Top 5.

WR: Top 5.

TE: Top 10: Njoku is obviously in the top 6-9 now, Demetrius Harris is a top-flight blocker, and DeValve...well I can't fathom his dissage...seriously wow...

Interior Offensive Line: Top 10 easily.  Tretter and Bitionio are top 5ers.  Those 2 and a guy named Joe default into the top 10 DUH.

Offensive Tackle: 4th tier (20-25).  I think I might have Joeitis here, because I think Robinson and Hubbard are about average, but I gotta honor the Analytics sites.  Anyway there's your bone, permabashers.

DT: Top 10.  The starters speak for themselves, but I also think the backups are functional in specific situational roles, and Wilks will be more inclined to field 3 (or fewer) down linemen in some situations than Gregg Williams was *note Gregg is gone, people*

Edge: Top 5.  Avery behind Vernon and Garrett, with Takitaki behind them I mean duh.

Linebackers: Top 15: I want to go higher, but expect Schobert to get traded, Takitaki still needs to prove it, as does Wilson, and Christian Kirksey is massively overrated.

Then there's the Wilks factor: Mack Wilson covers like a safety, and Wilks might use him in his hybrid role...lots of variables here, but I see Takitaki as a legit linebacker and a really good one.

Cornerbacks: Top 5.  OBVIOUSLY.

Safeties (assuming Damarius Randall isn't traded) top 10.  That's obvious too.

Special Teams: Top 10: DUH.

Yeah, that Offensive Tackle position has to be a priority.  Maybe DePodesta Dorsey can get one for Schobert or Randall or Duke.

Obviously, a smart coach and quick/mobile Quarterback can "mask" deficiencies (see many earlier posts), but when a Quarterback can't stand 7 yards deep on third and a mile, advantage: Defense.

In conclusion, I think Josh Edwards had a bad day, and will write fewer and fewer idiotic articles as he goes along.

But I'm compelled to demote Joe Gilbert as a source, and can't use him "as-is" anymore.

When you yourself can discredit a source without cross-checking or further research, that's bad.

Nick Dudukovich restored my faith in intelligent life in Cleveland with his 3 Browns "unappreciated players".

Joe Schobert was Nick's first, and I can't disagree (even though I think Dorsey should trade him).

But Tretter and Rodney Mitchellfield?  CHECK!!!

Nick don't need no steenking Film Room to know what he's talking about!

Okbye

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