I had written that while I expected OBJ to catch more deep balls and TDs, he probably wouldn't catch more passes due to the fact that one of the biggest advantages Baker Mayfield has is the fact that he spreads the ball around, and will not rely on any one receiver.
But
read it and weep. The linked article is extremely geeky, and I myself don't yet understand some of their micro-stats yet.
Unless you're a PFF subscriber, you won't get the nitty-gritty I read.
While Eli Manning earned a conventional 105+ QBR when targeting OBJ, PFF sorta snickers at that. They use "catchable" and "non-catchable" passes, and further separate deeper passes from shallower ones. They get into a lot deeper geekery that...I may never understand all of it, but can relay the gist of it to you:
For whatever reason, Eli Manning never made the most of OBJ; he "missed" him too often...I mean ranking in the bottom third or quarter of all the QB/WR combos since PFF started piling up stats, in every category.
And I realized: Eli had Sterling Shephard, Evan Engram, and this Barkley guy in 2018, and he didn't lean on OBJ any more than Mayfield will!
The difference here is that Baker Mayfield is more accurate than Eli Manning, and that in the 2019 offense, OBJ will run more deep routes.
Mayfield's deep accuracy is top-notch, and he's more effective deep due to his ability to scramble and extend plays (which Eli...not so much).
If Baker Mayfield targets OBJ the same number of times Eli did in 2018, Odell's overall production should be over 20% better than it was in 2018 because of Baker Mayfield (and maybe Todd Monken).
Stop 2 on my "Maybe I was wrong" tour comes thanks to my nemisis Jake Burns again.
I swear, it's like Jake reads my posts and "takes me to court" or something.
Anyway, this time it's about Joe Schobert (who I said needs to get traded before he can back up his Brinks truck and price himself off the team in 2020 which...I'm not retracting by the way--Jake was never a GM but I digress:)
Jake points out that Gregg Williams often lined Joe up 8+ yards off the line, making it hard for him to fill run-gaps before much larger offenders were there to smash him.
Jake implies that a number of his missed tackles were scheme-related. Per Jake, Schobert should line up closer to the line (and his run-gaps) in Steve Wilks's defense.
Schobert was elite in coverage in 2018. Jake expects that to decline somewhat as he lines up shallower, but points to the one thing Joe does better than anybody else: He strips the ball and causes fumbles.
Jake points out that he's already done it twice in Training Camp (to Landry and Njoku; note he was in coverage both times).
Jake is telling me that Joe Schobert is better than I thought he was. I stand corrected. But I can tell Jake that the 2020 Browns can't afford that 2020 Brinks truck once all the other GMs agree with Jake, so Dorsey should trade him now if he can get a third rounder or multiple picks.
I have to keep repeating this, because only a few people on this planet get it yet:
The Browns were stacked BEFORE John Dorsey got here, and he drafted a Quarterback first overall in his very first draft.
The "discredited" "Sashi Brown" picks and signings include Myles Garrett, Njoku, Schobert, Ogunjobi, DeValve, and Tretter (etc).
John Dorsey inheritted these guys, and every one of them (except for Rodney DeValvefield) projects to (beep! Beep!) be backing the biggest Brinks trucks in the NFL at their respective positions.
The clock is already ticking on Dorsey's awesome first offseason with Denzel Ward and Baker Mayfield (technically they have 4 more years as first round picks, but in the real world that doesn't work for superstars with leverage; see "Cousins, Kirk").
John Dorsey exploited the massive cap space
Damarius Randall, JC Tretter, and Joe Schobert are going to back up their Brinks trucks in 2020.
No sweat the Browns still got 30 mil and the cap will increase? Sorry to repeat this yet a 20th time, but salaries increase in lockstep with caps (is any of this sinking...nevermind)
These 3 players will (if I'm right about how well they'll play) gobble up that 30 mil and 7 or so mil more in one gulp DO YOU UNDERSTAND!?!
Try and stay with me here: If Dorsey pays all these guys he will have zero cap space in 2020.
No that's not "just fine", because Ogunjobi, Njoku, Garrett, and Callaway are soon to follow, (and I even skipped Rodney Higginsfield in 2020) with Avery too looming ahead of Mayfield and Ward!!!
Refer to the Head Coach Browns fans rode out of town on a rail along with Adolph Modell, Bill Belichick:
Belichick (the Patriots iteration) quickly became the defacto GM of the Pats, and might have been the person who drafted Tom Brady in the 6th round (maybe).
But Lord Insideous was most certainly the guy who traded Saint Drew Bledsoe to a Division rival for a bunch of high draft picks.
At this time, Rodney Bradyfield had been pretty good, but could he ever replace the "prototype" Saint Bledsoe?
Now we know: Lord Insideous is arguably the best Head Coach in NFL history. He gets extra credit for in fact drafting and signing (and releasing) players annually.
Everybody (except local permabashers) admits that Belichick is a genius, but even some sentient analysts don't get Bill's formula:
Good grief I need to explain this AGAIN!?!
Out of respect for my handful of regular readers, I will not.
Suffice it to say, you need to think with your brain.
...and that's all I have to say about that.
This just in: Local yokels are huge Seibert fans. Greg Joseph finally missed one (while Seibert KEPT missing) but now it's...they both suck, or something?
Joseph remains a ton better here on this planet. Some local writers would be better served writing bullcrap for politicians.
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