Monday, July 1, 2019

Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, the Browns, Cold-blooded Business

Jake Burns did another enlightning Film Room session on Nick Chubb's "jump-cuts".

These are pretty common, but some guys do it better than others.  Jake didn't describe it well enough, though:

As the runner approaches potential tacklers, he sort of "floats" for one step; he is neccessarily "upright".  The defender(s) can't tell which way he'll go, until he bends his legs to one side or the other and hunches down again.

It's not a stop-and-start, as he retains much of his momentum, only redirecting it; ideally at a shallow angle so that he can retain his speed.

Jake caught Chubb doing 2 jump-cuts in a row to kind of zing-zag through a severe traffic jam.

Jump cuts are instinctive and natural for most running backs, but like I said some are better at them than others.

The best ones get close enough to the defenders to threaten them frontally, but just far enough away to keep their cut-angle shallow and pass them at or near full speed (a big powerful guy--like Chubb--can ignore arm-tackles and cut it much closer).

Until I saw Jake's film analysis, I hadn't realized how often Nick used this particular move, or how good he was at it.  That guy is just born to carry a football.

I might as well stick with Nick Chubb here, even though this is redundant:

He's one of the reasons why Duke Johnson was so underused in 2018, even after Kitchens took over the offense.

Duke was in on third and longs, but there weren't as many of those with the offense clicking like it did.  And when he was in there, he often found himself in pass-protection (which he's become very good at...unfortunately for him).

Mayfield needed time more than an outlet receiver, and defenses sent more people at him inside.

...but I digress: Nick Chubb was a very reliable receiver already (well--out of the backfield.  Not like Duke, who can line up anywhere and run WR routes).

Freddie was running 2 and 3 Tight End offenses a lot, and some of the 2-backs included a fullback instead of Duke as well.

You just can't put a Nick Chubb on the bench in favor of a Duke Johnson.

Some people think Kareem Hunt is better than Nick Chubb.  I don't.  Nick is a year behind Hunt developmentally, and their respective rookie campaigns were comparable.

Hunt is so far a more dangerous receiver, but Nick will refine those skills too.

I'll say this again:  Paul Depodesta John Dorsey needs to ask Freddie Kitchens to use Hunt gradually and sparingly in 2019 (until the playoffs, anyway) so that he has a chance to sign Hunt to a not-too-rediculous contract extention...and then trade him.

What would Belichick do in this situation, with this roster?

Well, Damarius Randall looms largest short-term, and it looks like he's planning to "ball out" and back up his Brinks truck in 2019.

That's a non-starter for the Browns.  They can't afford the money he will command.  So put him on the block now.

They probably can, since they've loaded up on safeties capable of handling the deep middle in a Wilks defense.

Schobert too.  Yep.  Sorry!

Sorry to bumb you out, but this is how the Patriots and Eagles won Superbowls, and how every perennial contender manages to stay near the top.

The Steelers are one of those teams (sorry again).

They held the line with Ebineezer Bell, and were nearly as good without him.  They at least got something back for Antonio Brown, and dumped his salary too.

Ebineezer and Antonio are exceptional players who have 2 things in common:

Big Ben and the Steelers Offensive Line.

Niether of these players will be as successful with their new teams as they were with the Steelers.  

Meanwhile, those pundits who think the Steelers are diminished after this offseason are very wrong.

Devin Bush is a huge upgrade on Defense, Antonio Brown disappeared every time Big Ben was injured, and they signed Mark Barron too.  They'll be tougher in coverage (especially vs large people), faster in general, and...

Well just know that the Steelers will be a major PIA in 2019, with close to the Browns' overall talent.

So sorry.  But the Ravens ARE diminished...sorta.  Well they're even more loaded at RB and now have some good WRs, but you don't lose 3 starting linebackers and shrug that off.

I get the optimism around Lamar Jackson entering year 2, but don't think Harbaugh's master plan will work out as well as he hopes:

1: His defense will NOT be as dominating as it was in 2018, and he needed that to pull off his cave man Offense last season.  The 2019 Ravens are NOT built to come from behind, and will NOT score a lot of points, so...

2: Unlike Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson is a physical freak who will never be in Mayfield's zip code as a passer, and who has clear exploitable weaknesses and tendancies.

3: He's not a big guy.

4: Both the Steelers and Bengals are more talented than the 2019 Ravens.

Any Ravens fans here?  SORRY!

Dan Justik thinks the Browns should kick the tires on Safety Jalen Thompson in the supplemental draft.

...maybe.  If he's there in the 4th round.  I mean, since we're looking at possibly trading Damarius Randall....


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