Browns Business, Reality, Rodney Kitchensfield, Chubb Bonus Points

Players in the last year of their contracts present Paul DePpdesta John Dorsey with some challenges as (remember) you can't fill up every Brinks truck.

The "expiring" starters include Offensive Linemen Greg Robinson and JC Tretter, then defenders Joe Schobert and Damarius Randall.

The probable reason that Randall and the team aren't talking is either that the Browns and Randall are too far apart--or Randall has refused to talk, and intends to test the market first.

I won't repeat what I said about the Browns seeing what kind of value they can get for Schobert and Randall (as well as Duke), as a linebacker paid in the top 6 and a Free Safety maybe paid more than any other is not in the budget for 2020.

Greg Robinson will, if he's merely average, command a salary all out of proportion to his real value, and is as good as gone.

Tretter looks like a priority.  He came to the Browns as a pretty good center, but now he's one of the best in football, with plenty of tread left on his tires.

He should command top 4 center money, but that's not a bank-breaker, and if Robinson leaves, those savings would largely offset it.

Having lost first Joe Thomas and then Kevin Zeitler, DePodesta Dorsey can't keep letting these guys go, and Center is a critical position.

Higgins and Hunt are by far the most interesting "other" players (although Special Teams ace Murray should be affordable).

Higgins has 3 WRs ahead of him, and Freddie likes to use extra Tight Ends and Running Backs, so he's not going to "prove" too much in 2019.  He should be a highly affordable replacement for Jarvis Landry, who will probably be released after 2019.

Redundancy Alert:  Hunt will probably do enough to break the bank (leave) in 2020, but look for DePodesta Dorsey to try to re-sign him longer term, even for a ton of money.

There are a lot of moving parts here:

First, don't kid yourself: Hunt and his people would understand that he would probably be traded less than 2 years after signing his new contract.

Second, with Nick Chubb on the same team, he would at best be part of a committee, and not the bellcow.

On the one hand, this suppresses his stats.  On the other hand, he can win more, and preserve his body.  Most young guys want to be top dawg and get what they can asap.

Worst case: Kareem Hunt makes a difference in 2019.  Maybe they win one more regular season game, and/or one more playoff game...Chubb stays fresher, Freddie can run a super-2-back...

Then Hunt hits the dusty trail.

Nevermind the other guys listed, and I need to mention this: Orson Charles is being overhyped by local reporters.  He's a very good pass-protector, but sucks at everything else.  Ranting over his run-blocking prowess is downright idiotic; PFF grades him at 44.something!

Seth DeValve ranks ahead of Charles overall and in every other category except pass-protection (Saint Charles has him by three points there).

See why you can't trust anybody else? These goobers have Seth DeValve "on the bubble" due to Orson Charles' great lead-blocking!!!

Wow.  

Speaking of PFF, Dan Justik tells us that Nick Chubb was 2nd in the NFL against stacked boxes in 2018.

In fairness, Jordon Howard led the NFL with an 83 rating.  Chubb was next with 78.9, but Saquon Barkley tied him, and 5 others were very close, so we need to keep this in context.

But as Dan points out, it's hard to imagine Nick Chubb facing too many stacked boxes in 2019 anyway, with OBJ, Njoku, Callaway etc at Baker Mayfield's fingertips.

Naturally, it's not that simple, however:

While Todd Monken (and Baker Mayfield) are Air-Raid guys, Freddie Kitchens has NOT handed Monken the keys, and should still run his "big" fronts which will sometimes force stacked boxes.

...you see opposing Defenses will want to run at least nickel defenses no matter what, when they see 3 tight ends, one of which is a primary in-line blocker, and only 1 true WR, with 1 (big powerful) Running Back, they have to go "big" and load the box.

Freddie does this on purpose, because modern Defensive rosters are built to stop 3-wides with hybrid pass-catching Tight Ends (all the "rage" ya no?)

In 2018, Freddie "muscled up" a lot to get those little fast guys off the field, and...well you saw what happened:

Mayfield had more time.  Zone-blocking worked (with Chubb threading needles like a human pinball, and big fast athletes (like DeValve) blocking way downfield.

...sorry anyway Freddie forced (obsolete) 3-4 and 4-3 Defenses onto the field, and got that 5th Defensive Back off.

Freddie Kitchens exploited the elephant-in-the-room fact that in 2019 the nickel is everybody's real base defense.

Modern defenses are prioritizing linebackers who can cover over run-stuffers, passrushing DTs over run-stuffers, and looking for Strong Safeties who can play linebacker.

I will probably get more detailed later about this, but will tell you now that Freddie Kitchens is massively more insideously diabolical than you think he is.

Laugh at me now but I laughed at you first but believe me later and remember you heard it here first:

Freddie Kitchens, accent and all, is a genius.  I'm tempted to compare him to Lord Insideous, in fact.

I also expect Kitchens and MAYFIELD duh to manage the "egos" here---what a joke give me a break...okbye