Monday, July 8, 2019

Good Browns Analysis, Reality Checks, Just the Facts, Man

PFF answered a few Fantasy questions about some Browns' skill players' prospects/value in 2019, and did a pretty good job, but I can add some stuff:

David Njoku as the biggest/tallest receiver should get a lot of red zone targets, especially on short fields.  Unlike Mayfield, he'll probably be fairly priced for 55 catches, 750 yards, and over 12 TDs.

Taking a flyer in Duke Johnson might be good.  If he isn't traded early, you're dead, but if he is, he could have unprecedented success with an offense that needs him.

And again, the Browns Defense/Special Teams should be in the bargain bin, as everybody keeps harping on their 2019 stats.

They should keep getting turnovers, and get a LOT more TFLs and sacks too, along with of course coughing up fewer points.

Chubb might actually work out, if the Kareem Hunt and Offense stuff depresses his price enough.  He WILL be the lead dawg for 8 games, and (you'll see) catch more passes too.

Certainly, Hunt looms large, and it's hard to tell how deep he'll chew into Chubb's points, but this is a question of how high he'll be priced.

Callaway could also be a sneaky cheapskate grab.  He's one of 2 deep threats, and should play on the majority of downs.  Defenses simply can't gang up on him with OBJ and Njoku on the field.

OBJ himself might be overpriced too, as Mayfield is the Quarterback, Freddie plans to run a lot, and there's this "All you can eat" buffet of weapons in Baker's holster.  He should be in the top 5-7 in fantasy points again, but will he cost more than Smith-Schuster?  Offered that choice for the same price, I take the latter instead.

I don't play season-long myself, but weekly instead, so I'm not keeping track of the annual draft projections.

I will tell you this: If the gurus have more than 5 Quarterbacks projected ahead of him, Baker Mayfield not overvalued, because he's a touchdown machine both inside and outside the Red Zone, and could get close to his pal and arch-rival Pat Mahomes with this all-star cast he's blessed with, and rack up over 300 yards more often than not (by accident half the time).

Nah, he won't run for a lot of yardage...is that a big deal?  Do some leagues award Quarterbacks more for ground yards than passing yards or something?

One Fantasy Guru insists you don't have to draft a Quarterback high.  I never heard his explanation for that, but it doesn't sound right.  The Quarterback monopolizes half the touchdowns and the lions share of yardage.

Nor are they a dime-a-dozen, even in 2019.  Does this guy mean you can do without a Brady or Big Ben or Rodgers or Newton or Mahomes or something?

By the way, those and Lamar Jackson are the only guys I'd consider in Mayfield's Fantasy zip code. (Jackson might just pass for 200 yards and a TD but then run for another 100 and 1-2 more---should be terrific...in fantasy).

Per Gurzi, Bleacher Report's Brad Cagnon listed Baker Mayfield first on his list of one-per-team players primed to "explode" in 2019.

Brad is excellent, but Captain Obvious could have mailed that one in.

Jake Burns does an enlightening analysis of the 4 AFC North Wide Receiver corps',  and ranks the Browns' group first (yawn).

As I did (blush-blush) Jake ranked the Bengals Wideouts 2nd and the Steelers 3rd.

Jake guesstimates that JuJu Smith-Schuster will have a monster 100+- catch season for over 1300 yards, but the Bengals have impressive depth behind Gramps AJ Green, and Dalton uses all of it.

Ryan Murphy made a great first impression on me with his article aimed at "will the Browns lack of Defensive Tackle depth" hurt their playoff chances in 2019?

Ryan cited Myles Garrett's versatility/ability to play inside, and Avery's ability to relieve him or Vernon, and listed all the DT backups together with their overall PFF grades.

Devaroe Lawrence (Undrafted in 2017: Saints) graded highest among a weak group with a score of 60.  This doesn't surprise me, because I told you when the Browns signed him, Lawrence is no chump, and is only entering his third NFL season after playing (well) significant snaps as a rookie for the Saints.

Ryan concludes that while DT depth is less than ideal, it shouldn't be a big problem for the 2019 Browns unless Richardon or Ogunjobi miss significant time.

But (redundancy alert) Ryan missed a few things:

1: 2 Defensive Tackles are not mandatory, either on running or passing downs.

The assumption here is that the because Ogunjobi 3.0 and Richardson look like such an awesome combo, they have to play every down....

...zzinnggg we're talking about the depth behind them because we know we need to get them off the field so they don't wear down, right?

Well, if you lack depth at Defensive Tackle, but have Edge-depth in Avery and Takitaki...why wouldn't you consider a type of 3-4 situationally zzinggg!?

Get out of your box, please.

2: Like Garrett, Rodney Thomasfield can play DT as well as DE.

In reality, Chad Thomas's best "fit" in the NFL was/is as a 3-4 Defensive End IS ANY OF THIS SINKING IN YET?

I'm not bashing Ryan Murphy here.  This was a great article, and I'm nit-picking; constructively criticizing.  Someday, eventually, Ryan might become almost as smart as my humble self!

'Nuff said.

Just when I predict that Jarvis Landry will not be a Cleveland Brown in 2020, here comes Jake Burns showing us Landry's great blocking, and what a difference it made in 2018.

Damn now Landry reminds me of Earnest Byner (who should be in the Hall of Fame).

This doesn't change the economic realities confronting Paul DePodesta, or the near inevitability of his release after 2019, but it makes it a lot more painful.

...but maybe Dorsey can trade Landry instead.  Right NOW, Landry is overpriced, but if he does well in 2019, inflation might render his current salary reasonable.

What Jake points out in this film room doesn't even register with the general fantasy-mad public, but certainly matters to Offensive Coordinators.

Dorsey probably couldn't get a lot in a Landry trade, because all the other GMs know all about all those Brinks' trucks about to back into his loading dock.

...are you having a kniption-fit here; unable to deal with the reality?  Well get over it.

Anyhoo, maybe instead of just releasing Jarvis Landry, Dorsey can get up to a 2021 2nd round pick for him.

That's really optimistic, but a 2021 3rd rounder is less so...

I'm sorry I drifted away from the visceral emotions and immediate gratification stuff; I'll NEVER have any casual fans here...

Anyway for 2019 I'm glad Jarvis Landry is here.

And what amazing player he is!  Athletically, he's not in OBJ's zip-code, but somehow, some way, he went toe-to-toe with him in Highschool, and then approximated his numbers as OBJ's teammate at LSU.

I have to refer again to Earnest Byner for comparison:  Earnest was not big, and was pretty slow too, but (pay attention kids: I SAW this):  Byner was mind-over-matter.

He LEVELLED guys outweighing him by 30-40 lbs lead-blocking for Kevin Mack.  He personally broke the tackles of the same people.  He was simply indomitable (and selfless).

He got caught from BEHIND often, but if you were in his WAY, he hit you harder than you hit him.

Per Jake Burns, Landry is like Byner.  I bet he could be a Duke Johnson (or Earnest Byner)-like running back (I mentioned this when rumors of the Landry trade came out:  I said "Duke Johnson can do everything Landry does out of the slot.  Why cough up a draft pick and gobs of money to kick Duke off the line?")

Nobody remembers that, of course...dammit.

Don't get me wrong: This is partly political, and Dorsey needed to "prime the pump" in free agency with some high-profile players---I GET it.

Still, I would personally not have made the Landry trade...no screw that: Hue Jackson was my Head Coach...ok yeah...I might have done what Dorsey did too if jammed in that corner...

Well all that is history, and now Freddie Kitchens is the Head Coach, and Hue, Haley, and Williams are irrelevant.

Speaking of irrelevant, the Browns certainly traded away a future star in Jabrill Peppers.  

...so?  I blame today's unconstitutionally nationalized educational curriculum for questions like this:

Between Dave Gettleman and John Dorsey, you all think somebody had to win and somebody else had to lose (and you know be "exploited" or whatever?)

While some people DO take advantage of (not to mention defraud or steal from) others, the Browns-Giants deal typifies free enterprise:

At the time the deal happened, Giants fans were calling for Gettleman's head.

I said...well what I say now:

Both parties benefitted:  Jabrill Peppers was a first-round pick, with up to 3 years left on his cheap rookie deal, with great upside, who had already proven himself as a top-notch SS and more.

Gettleman dumped OBJ's salary and headaches, and OBJ and Vernon had both been injured too often...but ZEITLER was at least a top 3 guard in the NFL...

Anyway your Marxist professors brainwashed you.  The Browns/Giants trade can help you understand that "capitalism" isn't about exploitation or oppression or theft.  Both parties gave and got something, and each ultimately benefitted.

All the players involved will benefit from this exchange as well.  Dig as deep as you want for "losers".  You won't find any.

Jabrill Peppers will probably kick major ass.  OBJ and Vernon should too.  Gettleman dumped a bunch of salary, upgraded his secondary and Offensive Line...who got screwed in this deal?

Good luck to Jabrill Peppers and Zeitler too! And Dave Gettleman, for that matter (who I don't envy).

Okbye






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