Sunday, July 21, 2019

Bold 2019 Browns Predictions, and Why they aint that Bold.

Welcome back to the Jake Burns Fan Club.  This time I found a Film Room Jake did on Sheldon Richardson.  He explains a Twist and a Wax-stunt, and shows Richardson executing each to perfection.

Fans don't really need to know this technical stuff.  If you need to fill your head up with all these intricate details, you should get paid for it like Jake does.  In a nutshell, a line stunt has 2 Defensive Linemen crisscrossing to screw up the Offensive Linemen.

But Jake's conclusions are more important to us:

These and other stunts will work exceptionally well with these four Defensive Linemen.

Garrett is exceptionally strong, and Olivier Vernon a master of leverage.  They can attack and overmatch unprepared guards in a way the majority of Edge guys can't.

Jake mentions "zero shade" Larry Ogunjobi getting in on this act, as he is unusually quick for a Nose Tackle.

In a nutshell, the Browns starting front four can run every insideously diabolical dirty trick they or their coaches can dream up in their counterparts' wildest nightmares.

Stunts are safer than blitzes, and (until Jake corrects me yet again) can screw up zone-blocking, as the "uncovered" Offensive Linemen move sideways instead of vertically, and a stunter can broadside them (long story sorry nevermind).

Many stunts take a tad longer to develop, as one of the 2 participants needs to hesitate until his partner is out of his way, which is why they work much better with strong coverage (*man outside*).

It's much harder for Quarterbacks to recognize stunts than blitzes as they develop, and there is never a presnap read for him or the center...ergo no "hot read" bailout receiver.  (No defender is coming out of coverage, ergo there are no weak spots to exploit).

A veteran Offensive Line unit (like the Steelers) will read and react to line-stunts well enough to slow them down at least as often as not, but it will be really tough for even them vs these 4 Defensive Linemen.

Line stunts also screw up slide protections and other preplanned double teams (sometimes).

Anyway, forget what others have said about Steve Wilks being blitze-happy.  The 2019 Browns will probably blitze less than most other teams, and still be in the top 5 in pressures, sacks, and TFL.

...Assuming he's not mentally challenged and runs zone on the perimiter with Ward, Williams, and Mitchell DOES ANYBODY ELSE U N D E R S T A N D this blatently obvious thing!?!

Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre must read this Blog, as Dan Justik says they agree with me that Baker Mayfield plays like them (but then, what do they know?)

Actually I never compared Mayfield to Favre myself, but Brett is right about that "sixth sense" the 3 share, as Baker finds ways to turn broken plays into gold too.

I still say that Baker is more like Rodgers (and Warner) than Favre, as he tends to get rid of the ball quickly, and is a little more accurate than Saint Brett.

I remember Drew Brees saying that Baker Mayfield was like him, except for Baker's stronger arm.  Drew was on the money, too.

One of J R De Groot' 3 Bold Predictions for the 2019 Browns was that Baker Mayfield would lead the NFL in passing yards.

If JR had predicted top 5 instead, I'd be on that train, but 1st place seems optimistic to me:

1: The 2019 Browns should establish early leads, or at least "keep it close" in the majority of their games this season.  
Any fantasy player will tell you: look for the guys who will be coming from behind a lot.

2: Physical teams run the ball, and Freddie Kitchens and the other Coaches are preaching physicality.  They're not lying.

If you have a Nick Chubb (and/or Kareem Hunt), you lay the wood to opposing defenses to wear them down, keep them off your Quarterback, preserve your own Defense, and (yes) to intimidate them.

Baker Mayfield should beat the Franchise yardage record, but leading the NFL?  Just possible.

JR also predicts that Myles Garrett will beat the Browns Fanchise sack record (13.5-Reggie Camp).  Oh hayull yes!  13.5 is nothing for this guy in 2019.

But Defensive Player of the Year?  Well, that is bold, but I can't pick on JR for sticking his neck out on this one.

Myles Garrett will now be allowed to use all the moves he used in college, along with whatever he learned in 2 NFL seasons, instead of...you know...the TWO that Gregg Williams restricted him to?

And he now has an outstanding supporting cast.  20 or more sacks isn't at all unrealistic.

...but of course, Garrett is a Cleveland Brown.  Remember Baker Mayfield losing offensive Rookie of the Year to Saquon Barkley?

But Myles might get 24 sacks and some interceptions and stuff and just be too damn obvious to screw, so JR might have something here.

A first round bye?  Well, it's supposed to be a BOLD prediction, right?

JR is at a disadvantage here, as he has to stick his neck out for guys like me to sever a little at a time.

But if I was making bold predictions, this and the Myles Garrett ones would have been 2 of them.

The insufferable Patriots are favorites to get one playoff bye, but the other AFC Divisions are fuzzier.

The Texans and Colts, and the Chargers and Chiefs share Divisions.  Rivals like the Broncos and JagU A Rs are potential monkey-wrenches.

JR is predicting that the Browns will dominate the AFC North in order to accomplish this first round bye, and that's really the boldest part of his gutsy 2-part prediction (I salute you, JR!).

Realisticly, I'm not held to the BOLD standard, so I get to nibble at JR's proverbial ankles some more:

Dominating the AFC North is a tall order.  (Redundancy alert) the 2019 Steelers are being underrated, and their defense should be upgraded.

The Ravens have weak spots and holes, but have just added a BUNCH of Offensive skill-players, and Lamar Jackson is Micheal Vick on steroids.

Harbaugh will use that.  The 2019 Ravens' offense will be one of the most physical and unpredictable in the NFL.  

Even the Bengals still have a bunch of talent, and Marvin Lewis finally retired............

On the BOLD standard, however, you kinda have to bet on possibly the most talented team in the Conference, with one of the 3-4 best Quarterbacks, no?

Big Ben is an oft-injured old geezer, as Steelers fans mostly concede.  He is more likely than not to get hurt and lose time in 2019, and...

Well Mason Rudolph and Josh Dobbs don't suck nearly as much as Memorex Morons have decided they do off their first and second respective preseasons, but they're still no Big Ben.

The Steelers only weak spots are their so-so passrush and secondary.  While non-MMs like me see young players improving, the balance of that power has still shifted in the Browns favor with the addition of OBJ, the predictable evolution of Callaway, Njoku, and (oh yeah) Mayfield, and Rodney Higginsfield.

On the other side of the ball, the Browns have upgraded their defense much more than the Steelers have.

If you just said "Yeah but it's the Browns" you're an idiot, from whichever side of the fence you're slinging that steaming pile of superstition.

Nobody gets this:  Baker Mayfield is a match for Big Ben NOW as a player, but is ahead of him as a leader of men as well.

Since before the "new" Browns, this team never had that franchise QB and these weapons and this defensive talent...

But I digress: With Baker Mayfield running the offense, the Browns sweeping the AFC North wouldn't surprise me too much.

Critics of the 2019 Browns hype-wagon keep picking on Freddie Kitchens, who has "never been a Head Coach at any level".

These people seem to think...well that Freddie can't handle the PR load and the micromanagement of the entire team and...or...something?

Steve Wilks was an elite DC and a Head Coach, Seifert a top-notch Special Teams Coach, and the REST of Freddie's assistants just got upgraded.

Do you think Mike Tomlin is a genius?  Do you think the Bill Belichick Uncle Artie fired when the Browns became the Ravens was a loser?

Freddie Kitchens kicked ass.  Baker Mayfield loves him (mostly because Freddie set him free and let him be him).

What is it with you people!?!  Who tf ever told you that great Head Coaches were all control-freaks?   

Stipulating that Belichick might be the best Head Coach of all time, Freddie Kitchens read that history:

Bill Belichick was a micromanager (and drove all his assistants insane)  as the Browns Head Coach.  He slept perhaps 5 hours/night and spent every other waking moment micromanaging every position group, and re-doing every game-plan 2 or 3 times a week.

What Bill Belichick has accomplished since then is amazing, and it's NOT all Tom Brady (in fact I think he wanted to trade Brady and replace him with Garappolo, but Kraft nixed it (pay attention Jimmy Haslam!!!)

Oops zingg sorry! 

 ...Ok but Freddie Kitchens obviously has a different personality than Belichick 1.0 (or 1.1).  Freddie is also an offensive guy zzingggg unlike Freddie, who zinnggg is clueless about defenses since he is not a Defensive Coordinator like Steve Wilks or whovever.

I believe that Freddie Kitchens will do fine vs Tomlin, Harbaugh, etc., because he almost can't help it.

If you expect Freddie Kitchens or Baker Mayfield to choke, or something, due to ancient history, and despite talent...well are you cultists or something?

No 🖕 offense, but Steelers/Ravens/Bengals fans, if Baker Mayfield and the 2019 Browns don't terrify you, you need a brain transplant.











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