I find myself corrected again by PFF, who expect the change of Quarterbacks from Eli Manning to Baker Mayfield to significantly boost Odell Beckham Jr's numbers across the board.
I had written that while I expected OBJ to catch more deep balls and TDs, he probably wouldn't catch more passes due to the fact that one of the biggest advantages Baker Mayfield has is the fact that he spreads the ball around, and will not rely on any one receiver.
But
read it and weep. The linked article is extremely geeky, and I myself don't yet understand some of their micro-stats yet.
Unless you're a PFF subscriber, you won't get the nitty-gritty I read.
While Eli Manning earned a conventional 105+ QBR when targeting OBJ, PFF sorta snickers at that. They use "catchable" and "non-catchable" passes, and further separate deeper passes from shallower ones. They get into a lot deeper geekery that...I may never understand all of it, but can relay the gist of it to you:
For whatever reason, Eli Manning never made the most of OBJ; he "missed" him too often...I mean ranking in the bottom third or quarter of all the QB/WR combos since PFF started piling up stats, in every category.
And I realized: Eli had Sterling Shephard, Evan Engram, and this Barkley guy in 2018, and he didn't lean on OBJ any more than Mayfield will!
The difference here is that Baker Mayfield is more accurate than Eli Manning, and that in the 2019 offense, OBJ will run more deep routes.
Mayfield's deep accuracy is top-notch, and he's more effective deep due to his ability to scramble and extend plays (which Eli...not so much).
If Baker Mayfield targets OBJ the same number of times Eli did in 2018, Odell's overall production should be over 20% better than it was in 2018 because of Baker Mayfield (and maybe Todd Monken).
Stop 2 on my "Maybe I was wrong" tour comes thanks to my nemisis Jake Burns again.
I swear, it's like Jake reads my posts and "takes me to court" or something.
Anyway, this time it's about Joe Schobert (who I said needs to get traded before he can back up his Brinks truck and price himself off the team in 2020 which...I'm not retracting by the way--Jake was never a GM but I digress:)
Jake points out that Gregg Williams often lined Joe up 8+ yards off the line, making it hard for him to fill run-gaps before much larger offenders were there to smash him.
Jake implies that a number of his missed tackles were scheme-related. Per Jake, Schobert should line up closer to the line (and his run-gaps) in Steve Wilks's defense.
Schobert was elite in coverage in 2018. Jake expects that to decline somewhat as he lines up shallower, but points to the one thing Joe does better than anybody else: He strips the ball and causes fumbles.
Jake points out that he's already done it twice in Training Camp (to Landry and Njoku; note he was in coverage both times).
Jake is telling me that Joe Schobert is better than I thought he was. I stand corrected. But I can tell Jake that the 2020 Browns can't afford that 2020 Brinks truck once all the other GMs agree with Jake, so Dorsey should trade him now if he can get a third rounder or multiple picks.
I have to keep repeating this, because only a few people on this planet get it yet:
The Browns were stacked BEFORE John Dorsey got here, and he drafted a Quarterback first overall in his very first draft.
The "discredited" "Sashi Brown" picks and signings include Myles Garrett, Njoku, Schobert, Ogunjobi, DeValve, and Tretter (etc).
John Dorsey inheritted these guys, and every one of them (except for Rodney DeValvefield) projects to (beep! Beep!) be backing the biggest Brinks trucks in the NFL at their respective positions.
The clock is already ticking on Dorsey's awesome first offseason with Denzel Ward and Baker Mayfield (technically they have 4 more years as first round picks, but in the real world that doesn't work for superstars with leverage; see "Cousins, Kirk").
John Dorsey exploited the massive cap space Paul DePodesta Sashi Brown left to him admirably with Vernon, Richardson, Landry, Randall, Mitchell etc (bear with me I'm talking salaries and ignoring trades...jeez zzinngg...)
Damarius Randall, JC Tretter, and Joe Schobert are going to back up their Brinks trucks in 2020.
No sweat the Browns still got 30 mil and the cap will increase? Sorry to repeat this yet a 20th time, but salaries increase in lockstep with caps (is any of this sinking...nevermind)
These 3 players will (if I'm right about how well they'll play) gobble up that 30 mil and 7 or so mil more in one gulp DO YOU UNDERSTAND!?!
Try and stay with me here: If Dorsey pays all these guys he will have zero cap space in 2020.
No that's not "just fine", because Ogunjobi, Njoku, Garrett, and Callaway are soon to follow, (and I even skipped Rodney Higginsfield in 2020) with Avery too looming ahead of Mayfield and Ward!!!
Refer to the Head Coach Browns fans rode out of town on a rail along with Adolph Modell, Bill Belichick:
Belichick (the Patriots iteration) quickly became the defacto GM of the Pats, and might have been the person who drafted Tom Brady in the 6th round (maybe).
But Lord Insideous was most certainly the guy who traded Saint Drew Bledsoe to a Division rival for a bunch of high draft picks.
At this time, Rodney Bradyfield had been pretty good, but could he ever replace the "prototype" Saint Bledsoe?
Now we know: Lord Insideous is arguably the best Head Coach in NFL history. He gets extra credit for in fact drafting and signing (and releasing) players annually.
Everybody (except local permabashers) admits that Belichick is a genius, but even some sentient analysts don't get Bill's formula:
Good grief I need to explain this AGAIN!?!
Out of respect for my handful of regular readers, I will not.
Suffice it to say, you need to think with your brain.
...and that's all I have to say about that.
This just in: Local yokels are huge Seibert fans. Greg Joseph finally missed one (while Seibert KEPT missing) but now it's...they both suck, or something?
Joseph remains a ton better here on this planet. Some local writers would be better served writing bullcrap for politicians.
Day 5 of camp is being described as "sloppy", but that sounds biased to me. The wide receivers were dropping balls (Freddie you need to punish them with laps or sprints, no?)
But what about the Defense? It doesn't sound like they were sloppy! And I wish I could have seen those "drops", because it sounds like Myles Garrett was in the backfield more than Nick Chubb was.
Speaking of which, Greg Robinson got punked (by Garrett). That's bad, but not disasterously bad, because Garrett 3.0 would give Joe Thomas in his prime a hard time, and Greg Robinson is unlikely to face anybody as good as Garrett in 2019.
When you ask the question "should we worry about Greg Robinson?" now, based off one practice, you're late to the party:
I've been telling you that Williams and Hubbard looked better than they actually were in 2018 due to help from Tight Ends, Mayfield's quick release, pocket radar, and mobility, and a strong running game.
But while Greg Williams is probably not the long-term answer at Left Tackle, he should be an adequate "hold the fort" guy for the 2019 Browns, because there's only one Myles Garrett.
The Browns need an upgrade there, but are like the majority of the rest of the NFL, and just have to work around it (like Kitchens and Mayfield did in 2018).
Anyway, I wish I could see those drops, because it sounds like all the Quarterbacks were forced to throw early, which undermines accuracy and catches receivers unprepared...
Ok by that I mean that on a timing route, the receiver makes his break and looks for the ball, right? Well, when a Quarterback has to throw that pass early, he has to take some velocity off it and throw it higher, so that the receiver has a chance to catch it (before it bounces off his helmet or something) as he makes his move and looks for it.
Try to keep up: Well, hurried QBs not only have to slow it down and elevate the ball, but also throw it "off-platform"; further reducing their accuracy.
Baker Mayfield's receivers are spoiled rotten, and are probably surprised when they actually have to slow down or reach for a pass.
Nor are MonkenKitchens running the Offense they will run in real games. In fact, right now the Coaches seem to be testing individual players and deliberately not helping Robinson, for example (with Tight Ends or slides or playcalls).
If I am correct about this, it's great news. Putting players in jams, raising their "bars", and "overmatching" them are how you separate the wheat from the chaff, and also how you push players to broaden their skillsets and grow.
By the regular season, Robinson and (maybe) Hubbard should be all they can be, and so should the new Right Guard.
Meanwhile, Sione Takitaki has made a good impression with the second team defense. Like I predicted. Which relates to the Shobert trade I predicted (although Wilson is a big part of that too...and Whitehead...ok well if you could tell the difference between Wilks and Williams you might comprehend some of this...)
Why is anybody surprised that Nick Chubb caught a bunch of passes? Or that Willies has been kicking ass?
Oh I know why! They don't read this Blog!!!🖕
Jimmy and Dee Haslam came out in public and answered questions. Sigh here we go with the meddling again.
Of course I was being sarcastic. Jimmy Haslam might have fired guys after 1 or 2 years, but he never actually "meddled", including his comment to Ray Farmer in re Johnny Manswell: "Let's go get him".
Jimmy was obviously excited by Manswell's "Let's wreck this league" text, and was smiling when he said it.
A lot of you people don't get this, but Farmer could have looked into his boss's smiling face and said "not a good idea, boss", and Haslam would have listened to him.
Any GM knows he'll get fired if a Quarterback he drafted high craps out, and you just plain do NOT compromise on this, even with the Boss.
Imagine Haslam urging Dorsey to draft Darnold instead of Mayfield, or to trade for Antonio Brown.
He would never have done it, and listen to me: Haslam would respect his decision. Why TF do you think he HIRED the guy!?!
"Meddling owner" bullshit: Jimmy Haslam will fire you if your results disappoint him, but "Let's go get him"? Yep: Jimmy Haslam is the Donald Trump of NFL owners.
...err well he was. NFL teams either win or lose. It will be very hard to bash Haslam for 11-5 or 10-6...
They would have been 12-4 without his meddling? Somebody he fired would have done better? He bribed everybody to get rules favoring the Browns (read "collusion" haha)?
"Should the Browns be worried about their kickers?" Not more than most other teams. Draft pick Austin Seibert had a crappy day. Incumbent Rodney Josephfield didn't.
You people need to get a grip here, ok? You think that because John Dorsey drafted a kicker in the 5th round it was...errr...because Greg Joseph sucks?
It was a FIFTH ROUND PICK. Jeez how DUMB are you!?!
1: Throw out his crappy first game with the Browns, and Greg Joseph actually did a great job for the Browns in 2018, and is a veteran, and these are what we in the Intelligence Community call F A C T S.
2: I was more surprised than most of you when John Dorsey drafted Austin Seibert in the 5th round, because his stats are pedestrian.
Dorsey and co know better than me yes, but I never wrote Greg Joseph off. I always knew that (ultra-preciously valuable 5th round pick or not), the better kicker will win...and expected it to be Joseph.
Picks in the 5th round and below are special-teamers, longshots, and projects. They are expected to fail.
...Is any of this sinking in yet? John Dorsey won't be hitting himself in the head saying "stupid stupid stupid" if his 2018 free agent kicker beats out his 2019 5th round kicker.
I can't find who wrote this "Fresh Takes" analysis of Day 4, but he was insightful and informative, and I learned 2 things:
1: Per this anonymous writer, Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon are alternating sides based on "which is the strong side":
I interpret this to mean that one of them is on whichever side the Tight End lines up, and will further conclude that Garrett is the "strong side" guy.
If I'm correct in my re-analysis of this other guy's take, this is brilliant, since I would have done it myself (case closed)!
2: Austin Corbett looks okay at Right Guard for the moment (ie he didn't screw up) (with the first team).
You guys know I expect him to win this battle and never be below average even as a first year starter.
In fact, I expect Austin Corbett to be like Joel Bitonio was as a rookie LEFT Guard.
If Bitonio had been put at RIGHT guard as a rookie, he would probably have been labeled a "bust"...
...You know the lefty-righty thing? Zzinggg I tried okbye.
My favorite part of the news from Day 3 was Baker Mayfield giving his receivers both barrels for not reacting right to one of his scrambles.
This is part of what makes Tom Brady great. Brady doesn't need any Coaches to correct somebody on his offense--he does it himself.
I didn't just say "receiver" in that sentence, because Nick Chubb said that Baker gets on Offensive Linemen too.
It's great to see that Baker isn't just a "you'll do better next time" pom-pom guy, because sometimes you need a stick to offset the carrot.
It's pretty unique for a second year Quarterback to already be yelling at guys like Landry and OBJ like that, but Mayfield can do that off his 4 elite years in college and his outstanding rookie season.
But then, he's already worked with most of these guys in LA, so he's also developed a repoire with OBJ, and this group in general.
Leadership is a huge part of an NFL Quarterback's job. The whole Offense orbits around him, so he has to be more than just a player who hears stuff in his helmet and regurgitates it in the huddle.
There are all sorts of different ways to lead, because you have to be yourself first and foremost. Everybody knows a phoney when they see one.
So Peyton Manning and Brian Sipe were easy-going, Brady is an intense perfectionist, and...
Well Mayfield is just...well you see him jumping up and down watching his defense? Racing to congratulate guys? Hugging Callaway and telling him "I still got your back" after he dropped a pass? Now cussing out his receivers for screwing up too? Mostly carrot, but also some stick---and very cool, since all of it is genuine.
It was fun to hear that Freddie Kitchens tells his defense in practice where the ball is going. That might have something to do with why most of the day 3 run-plays got "stuffed".
Today was Kush day at Right Guard, but it sounds like Corbett is starting to really show up as an inside zone blocker.
No link to the article because the writer is describing "chips" off double-teams and stuff...wow...
Anyway everything Jake Burns said about Corbett's excellence in pulling applies to inside zone-blocking.
...I wrote a few posts on it. Last year I think...or in 2017. Just read all those and you'll find the one on zone-blocking eventually.
But for now, -snap-snap- the 2019 Browns are going to zone-block out the yinyang! Every RPO requires zone-blocking, Nick Chubb is a classic one-cut RB, and...
Why do I bother? Okbye.
As everybody will tell you, we can't read too much into the first 2 days of Training Camp.
In general, that's because they're not in pads or hitting, some of the guys on the field have never worked together, and the Offense always has an early advantage.
But this Camp is different:
1: Steve Wilks and his Defensive system are new. Freddie Kitchens brings some continuity to the Offense, but Todd Monken brings some changes too.
2: Kitchens and co have moved players up and down the depth chart; they seem to be experimenting. Austin Corbett was the first team RG thursday, and the second team center (Kalis at RG with the ones) friday.
Greedy Williams got a little taste of the first team today, and picked off a Mayfield TD pass aimed at this err...OBJ(?) guy?
My man Terrence Mitchell has been getting toasted. Since I haven't heard anything about Carey, he must be doing ok.
We can understand OBJ beating him, but undrafted street free agent microbe Damon Sheehy-Guiseppi cleaned his clock as well.
Just as he did in OTAs, Greedy Williams took a whole 24 hours to get up to speed and start deflecting and intercepting balls out the yinyang.
It's almost funny to hear Freddie say "nothing's going to be handed to" Williams. Coach-speak...gotta love it.
Baker Mayfield and his receivers generally beat up the secondary both days, but it wasn't one-sided, and the second and third units did a little worse.
These non-contact practices aren't as meaningless as shallow analysts tell you, because the receivers and coverage guys do make as much contact as they do in actual games.
Still, when the pads come on, we'll find out who will start at Right Guard, and sort out the Defensive Line and Linebacker depth chart--and who Wilks's LB/S hybrid will be.
Notably, Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon have lined up at different spots, which is great news!
Garrett himself said he doesn't much care where he lines up. He went on to say that he and Vernon would shift around and they would go with the "hot hand".
I like Myles Garrett (the person) more every time I hear from him. This is a deep guy with a good heart.
Sure, he wants 20 sacks (with 5 on Big Ben), but he's talking about playing the "hot hand" between himself and Vernon: Myles Garrett isn't selfish, or egotistical, like some ex-Steelers we know...
Anyway this is great, as several posts ago I took off from a Jake Burns Film Room (which pointed out that Vernon had been much less effective as a passrusher from the strong side than from the weak side), and said that Myles Garrett should have no problem on the strong side, and that the two should just find the best individual matchups, regardless of which side (blush-blush).
Myles Garrett is a rocked-up 6'4", 278 (or so). Terry Pluto didn't notice this much, but Gregg Williams lined him up at DT often in 2018, and he'll have no problems lining up on the strong side, where he overmatches Right Tackles and can brush Tight Ends off like dandruff.
And Vernon should do better on the strong side, with Garrett on the weak side and (you know) those other guys between them?
...but expect Myles Garrett on the strong side more than Vernon in 2019. That's just how it probably shakes out...with a Coach who will really max out the sum of his individual players (for a change/I hope).
Okbye
I get that Barry Shuck isn't as familiar with the Cleveland Browns as I am, so I can correct a few of his misconceptions:
Joe Schobert is on the block. Like almost everybody other than my humble self, Barry can't see beyond 2019, or consider system-changes, or basic arithmetic.
Barry can't see the 2019 Browns signing the newly released 30 year old Redsins starting MLB Mason Foster.
1: Classic Dorsey move: Scoop up a 30-year-old solid starter for one year dirt-cheap.
2: Classic DePodesta move: Trade an asset you can't afford to keep next year.
I will spare Barry 3-7, since my regulars see them all coming already (you're welcome, by the fucking way!).
The Green Bay Packers just cut 30 year old Pro Bowl DT Mike Daniels due to not just his 8-plus mil cap-hit, but also a big influx of younger/cheaper talent, and because he's SHORT.
I find it funny that the barely-over 6' tall Daniels doesn't fit Dorsey's ideal DT profile, but jeez...why am I the only person who gets that John Dorsey and Steve Wilks are different people, and that John Dorsey is not a Defensive Coordinator, and that even the Dorsey statement I cited was made before Wilks was hired?
Mason Foster and Mike Daniels are both prime targets for the 2019 Browns here on this planet.
Both/either are one-year "bandaids", for peanuts, and could get the 2019 Browns over the top.
Zzzinggg I tried. Okbye.
As usual -sigh- I have to link to yet another -sigh- Jake Burns Film Room article; this one on Denzel Ward's defending the fade route.
Jake is holding Ward to the highest of standards, as the rookie Denzel actually excelled at defending this route, and (as Jake himself stipulated) learned instantly from each mistake he made, and improved throughout his first season.
Another (blatently obvious) improvement Denzel needs to make is on his tackling technique, as this is how he (at least twice) rang his own bell trying to take down much bigger guys high.
Personally, I loved his aggression and guts, but he needs to learn that discretion is the better part of valor.
Ward no doubt already understands this intellectually, but in the urgency of the moment, the warrior takes over. Denzel got away with stuff in college he can't in the pros, and has to practice to overcome those wired-in bad habits.
Denzel Ward is, as Jake Burns recognizes, a very smart cookie, and that's why Greg Williams felt free to sorta call him a dumbass in public for leading with his face vs a guy that had 50 lbs on him.
...Oh some of you don't get that: It's ok for a Coach to pick on a smart guy for acting like a dumbass, because the smart guy knows the Coach is correct and just trying to motivate him.
This PC crap is so rediculous...
Anyway, Jake points out that a shut-down cornerback might be even more important than that Julio Jones or Micheal Thomas (or OBJ for that matter).
Jake is very conservative, and never even mentioned Greedy Williams by name as he addressed the "under construction" Browns' secondary.
Greedy has his own issues with tackling, but for different reasons (I'll keep my foot away from my mouth and let Jake break that down later), but is a natural-born M A N Corner who can do most of what Ward does already.
One could normally expect Greedy to make all the same mistakes the rookie Ward did, but I don't think so:
Greedy should earn first team reps opposite Ward early, and find himself challenged by Rashard Higgins, Njoku, OBJ etc as KitchensMonken move these guys all over the place, and Baker Mayfield hitting every micro-window.
Denzel Ward practiced against Tyrod Taylor and less experienced and talented players in general than Greedy will face.
Generally speaking, most of you people undervalue competition and balance between a given team's Offense and Defense.
Most Superbowl teams (both winners and losers) have at least decent Defenses and Special Teams to go with their Offenses.
This is one of the reasons we see the insufferable Patriots nearly annually.
The Chargers made a strong run, and the Chiefs were phenominal, but...there you go, right?
I'll tell you what: If the Browns meet the Chiefs in the 2019 playoffs, OBJ, Beckham, Njoku and company will be used to duking it out with Ward, Williams, Randall, etc., and the Chiefs Defense will feel like "butter" to them.
Meanwhile, Pat Mahomes and his great skill players won't look much different to Ward and company than Mayfield and his weapons.
The Saints have had a juggernaut offense for like a decade now, but (until recently) their defense sucked. The Chargers are similar. The Steelers have sputtered of late because their normally above average defense has failed them.
The 2019 Browns have a good chance to win in the playoffs because Greg Robinson practices against Myles Garrett (and Olivier Vernon), Denzel Ward practices against OBJ, and the Browns' safeties and linebackers practice against Jarvis Landry and Njoku.
While the rest of these unReality Show fans question Freddie Kitchens ability to manage all these "big personalities" and "inflated expectations", etc...
Well YOU get it.
I'm glad OBJ at least temporarily dumped his goldy locks, even though it's purely a PR thing.
Drew Rosenhaus meeting with John Dorsey does NOT mean that Duke won't be traded before the regular season, Virginia.
It most likely means that John Dorsey wants to let Rosenhaus to "market" Duke to 31 other teams for him, so that he (Dorsey) can officially "not be interested".
Two knuckleheads on NFL Radio agreed that Duke is worth a conditional 6th or 7th round pick. Well, one was and ex-player and the other a professional urinalist, and niether should be allowed within 20 miles of any NFL front office.
The knuckleheads also agreed that Duke is exclusively a 3rd down back who can catch passes but never run inside.
Ok these are dumbasses, ok? Duke Johnson (check with PFF) runs between the tackles just fine, thank you, is one of the better slot receivers in the NFL (could do it full time), and is ok as an outside wide receiver too "stictly a third down back" really?
I can't take this idiocy anymore okbye
The Browns are getting busy kicking the tires on some veteran free agents.
These Offensive Line brothers look like a Greg Robinson-like flyer on two players who never lived up to their hype, and good luck with that.
But the Browns Offensive Line already has veteran depth, ok? Quit writing dumb stuff. The Browns are hoping that one of these guys can surprise everybody and make the team.
Orleans Darkwa is a different story: That guy is for real! He has good size and great speed.
So far, he's not proven himself a great receiver. Until 2017, he rarely caught any passes, but in 2017 he caught 18 passes for a little over 100 yards.
The Browns may feel he has more potential in that area, but at this point (here's another correction) he looks like more of a Chubb backup than a Johnson or Hilliard type.
But (here we go again): Nick Chubb has great upside as a receiver himself, and is a "three down back". While it's good to get your bellcow off the field for some rest on third and long, it's not mandatory. Get it?
And then, there's Dontrell Hilliard, who, among other things, fits the "third down back" profile nearly as well as Duke Johnson does. Darkwa would not be signed to replace either of those guys good grief duh...
But this still has a lot to do with Duke Johnson (whoever his agent is).
I'm watching Ebineezer Bell's online rant. I remember when some local writers thought John Dorsey should trade for this guy (and then Antonio Brown, naturally).
I wonder how many of the same writers think OBJ is more trouble than he's worth. He's not even in those guys' zip codes!
Speaking of locker rooms, Mary Kay wrote a solid article on how Baker Mayfield changed the fortunes of 5 2018 teammates.
Breshard Perriman signed on as a veteran free agent after a Greg Robinsonian "bust" carreer, and is now getting paid 4 mil/year with another team.
Rashard Higgins was slipping and sliding his way off the team, but lucked out practicing with Mayfield on the second team through preseason.
Certainly, Higgins in his third season was better than he was in 2017, but (like with Perriman), Baker Mayfield had everything to do with Higgins' rebirth.
Also like the extremely raw rookie Antonio Callaway who, by the last quarter of 2018, was integral to the Browns' offense.
Then there was Greg Robinson.
Mayfield's decisiveness, mobility, touch and accuracy clearly served all these guys well, but Mary Kay's main point was how Mayfield vocally supported all these players, both publicly and privately.
The Robinson thing was striking: Baker never said anything about Des Harrison, who had started at Left Tackle up til then. But he instantly became Robinson's cheerleader.
Clearly, Baker Mayfield isn't just being PC with these guys, and he obviously didn't care for Harrison.
All 4 of these guys said that Mayfield's overt confidence in and support of them "made it easy to work", and made them want to run through walls for him.
This is leadership. Baker Mayfield's impact on the Cleveland Browns is as much psychological as physical. I've been trying to explain this since before Dorsey drafted the kid.
This is why OBJ can't disrupt the 2019 Browns, even if he was so inclined. Mayfield will have Freddie's back, and the whole team has Mayfield's back. Even his "brother" Jarvis Landry would "pull him aside" and tell him to shut tf up.
I still say that Baker screwed up bigtime with his comments in re Duke Johnson's trade request, but one thing that showed was that Baker Mayfield speaks his mind, and you don't want to get "in his way".
Baker gets that he is THE Quarterback, and this gives him great leverage. Dorsey or his coaches can ask him to "tone it down" or whatever, but the fact is that he's the most important player on the team, and the fan's golden boy.
It is Baker Mayfield's personality that sets him apart from other accurate, smart Quarterbacks; his leadership.
Baker Mayfield can't do everything his good friend and arch-rival Patrick Mahomes can do, but Mahomes doesn't have Mayfield's charisma.
A popular debate on ESPN is about whether the 2019 Browns or Chiefs will have a better W/L record.
Wow. Look how far we've come! (Steelers and Ravens fans need to understand that this isn't just "hype", either. Compare the rosters.)
Anyway the ESPN people have no dog in this fight (between the W/L records of the Chiefs and Browns), so I paid attention.
It's close, but exit polling has the Chiefs ahead based on Tyreek Hill's non-suspension.
But I disagree (and still would if I was a Chiefs fan).
With Hill available all season, I can see how some would give the Chiefs' offense the nod over the Browns, but they're still wrong, because the Browns have Nick Chubb, and the (Kareem Huntless) Chiefs don't have that guy.
Both defenses sucked in 2018, but the Browns have upgraded massively, while the Chiefs have not.
The Browns added 2 veteran Pro Bowlers to their Defensive Line, and arguably the best man corner in the 2019 draft, plus Wilson, Takitaki, and Redwine.
The Browns Special Teams units will also be significantly upgraded.
I just deleted a bunch of AFC West stuff (you're welcome).
Pat Mahomes is undiagnosable, and 2019 defenses won't "figure him out", but...ok you're welcome again I'm pre-deleting that too.
I can't predict that the '19 Browns will win more games than the Chiefs, because (in reality) the AFC North is better than the AFC West overall.
But I can't predict that the Chiefs will win more games either since...well, the Browns Defense and Special Teams will be so much better than they were in 2018 (as if that matters chuh!)
A better debate would be the 2019 Steelers vs the Browns, really.
The Chiefs are overhyped too ya no? They have that awesome fireworks and sparklers offense, and nobody seems to notice the 30+ points their defense coughs up...
Screw it okbye.
Welcome back to the Jake Burns Fan Club. This time I found a Film Room Jake did on Sheldon Richardson. He explains a Twist and a Wax-stunt, and shows Richardson executing each to perfection.
Fans don't really need to know this technical stuff. If you need to fill your head up with all these intricate details, you should get paid for it like Jake does. In a nutshell, a line stunt has 2 Defensive Linemen crisscrossing to screw up the Offensive Linemen.
But Jake's conclusions are more important to us:
These and other stunts will work exceptionally well with these four Defensive Linemen.
Garrett is exceptionally strong, and Olivier Vernon a master of leverage. They can attack and overmatch unprepared guards in a way the majority of Edge guys can't.
Jake mentions "zero shade" Larry Ogunjobi getting in on this act, as he is unusually quick for a Nose Tackle.
In a nutshell, the Browns starting front four can run every insideously diabolical dirty trick they or their coaches can dream up in their counterparts' wildest nightmares.
Stunts are safer than blitzes, and (until Jake corrects me yet again) can screw up zone-blocking, as the "uncovered" Offensive Linemen move sideways instead of vertically, and a stunter can broadside them (long story sorry nevermind).
Many stunts take a tad longer to develop, as one of the 2 participants needs to hesitate until his partner is out of his way, which is why they work much better with strong coverage (*man outside*).
It's much harder for Quarterbacks to recognize stunts than blitzes as they develop, and there is never a presnap read for him or the center...ergo no "hot read" bailout receiver. (No defender is coming out of coverage, ergo there are no weak spots to exploit).
A veteran Offensive Line unit (like the Steelers) will read and react to line-stunts well enough to slow them down at least as often as not, but it will be really tough for even them vs these 4 Defensive Linemen.
Line stunts also screw up slide protections and other preplanned double teams (sometimes).
Anyway, forget what others have said about Steve Wilks being blitze-happy. The 2019 Browns will probably blitze less than most other teams, and still be in the top 5 in pressures, sacks, and TFL.
...Assuming he's not mentally challenged and runs zone on the perimiter with Ward, Williams, and Mitchell DOES ANYBODY ELSE U N D E R S T A N D this blatently obvious thing!?!
Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre must read this Blog, as Dan Justik says they agree with me that Baker Mayfield plays like them (but then, what do they know?)
Actually I never compared Mayfield to Favre myself, but Brett is right about that "sixth sense" the 3 share, as Baker finds ways to turn broken plays into gold too.
I still say that Baker is more like Rodgers (and Warner) than Favre, as he tends to get rid of the ball quickly, and is a little more accurate than Saint Brett.
I remember Drew Brees saying that Baker Mayfield was like him, except for Baker's stronger arm. Drew was on the money, too.
One of J R De Groot' 3 Bold Predictions for the 2019 Browns was that Baker Mayfield would lead the NFL in passing yards.
If JR had predicted top 5 instead, I'd be on that train, but 1st place seems optimistic to me:
1: The 2019 Browns should establish early leads, or at least "keep it close" in the majority of their games this season.
Any fantasy player will tell you: look for the guys who will be coming from behind a lot.
2: Physical teams run the ball, and Freddie Kitchens and the other Coaches are preaching physicality. They're not lying.
If you have a Nick Chubb (and/or Kareem Hunt), you lay the wood to opposing defenses to wear them down, keep them off your Quarterback, preserve your own Defense, and (yes) to intimidate them.
Baker Mayfield should beat the Franchise yardage record, but leading the NFL? Just possible.
JR also predicts that Myles Garrett will beat the Browns Fanchise sack record (13.5-Reggie Camp). Oh hayull yes! 13.5 is nothing for this guy in 2019.
But Defensive Player of the Year? Well, that is bold, but I can't pick on JR for sticking his neck out on this one.
Myles Garrett will now be allowed to use all the moves he used in college, along with whatever he learned in 2 NFL seasons, instead of...you know...the TWO that Gregg Williams restricted him to?
And he now has an outstanding supporting cast. 20 or more sacks isn't at all unrealistic.
...but of course, Garrett is a Cleveland Brown. Remember Baker Mayfield losing offensive Rookie of the Year to Saquon Barkley?
But Myles might get 24 sacks and some interceptions and stuff and just be too damn obvious to screw, so JR might have something here.
A first round bye? Well, it's supposed to be a BOLD prediction, right?
JR is at a disadvantage here, as he has to stick his neck out for guys like me to sever a little at a time.
But if I was making bold predictions, this and the Myles Garrett ones would have been 2 of them.
The insufferable Patriots are favorites to get one playoff bye, but the other AFC Divisions are fuzzier.
The Texans and Colts, and the Chargers and Chiefs share Divisions. Rivals like the Broncos and JagU A Rs are potential monkey-wrenches.
JR is predicting that the Browns will dominate the AFC North in order to accomplish this first round bye, and that's really the boldest part of his gutsy 2-part prediction (I salute you, JR!).
Realisticly, I'm not held to the BOLD standard, so I get to nibble at JR's proverbial ankles some more:
Dominating the AFC North is a tall order. (Redundancy alert) the 2019 Steelers are being underrated, and their defense should be upgraded.
The Ravens have weak spots and holes, but have just added a BUNCH of Offensive skill-players, and Lamar Jackson is Micheal Vick on steroids.
Harbaugh will use that. The 2019 Ravens' offense will be one of the most physical and unpredictable in the NFL.
Even the Bengals still have a bunch of talent, and Marvin Lewis finally retired............
On the BOLD standard, however, you kinda have to bet on possibly the most talented team in the Conference, with one of the 3-4 best Quarterbacks, no?
Big Ben is an oft-injured old geezer, as Steelers fans mostly concede. He is more likely than not to get hurt and lose time in 2019, and...
Well Mason Rudolph and Josh Dobbs don't suck nearly as much as Memorex Morons have decided they do off their first and second respective preseasons, but they're still no Big Ben.
The Steelers only weak spots are their so-so passrush and secondary. While non-MMs like me see young players improving, the balance of that power has still shifted in the Browns favor with the addition of OBJ, the predictable evolution of Callaway, Njoku, and (oh yeah) Mayfield, and Rodney Higginsfield.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns have upgraded their defense much more than the Steelers have.
If you just said "Yeah but it's the Browns" you're an idiot, from whichever side of the fence you're slinging that steaming pile of superstition.
Nobody gets this: Baker Mayfield is a match for Big Ben NOW as a player, but is ahead of him as a leader of men as well.
Since before the "new" Browns, this team never had that franchise QB and these weapons and this defensive talent...
But I digress: With Baker Mayfield running the offense, the Browns sweeping the AFC North wouldn't surprise me too much.
Critics of the 2019 Browns hype-wagon keep picking on Freddie Kitchens, who has "never been a Head Coach at any level".
These people seem to think...well that Freddie can't handle the PR load and the micromanagement of the entire team and...or...something?
Steve Wilks was an elite DC and a Head Coach, Seifert a top-notch Special Teams Coach, and the REST of Freddie's assistants just got upgraded.
Do you think Mike Tomlin is a genius? Do you think the Bill Belichick Uncle Artie fired when the Browns became the Ravens was a loser?
Freddie Kitchens kicked ass. Baker Mayfield loves him (mostly because Freddie set him free and let him be him).
What is it with you people!?! Who tf ever told you that great Head Coaches were all control-freaks?
Stipulating that Belichick might be the best Head Coach of all time, Freddie Kitchens read that history:
Bill Belichick was a micromanager (and drove all his assistants insane) as the Browns Head Coach. He slept perhaps 5 hours/night and spent every other waking moment micromanaging every position group, and re-doing every game-plan 2 or 3 times a week.
What Bill Belichick has accomplished since then is amazing, and it's NOT all Tom Brady (in fact I think he wanted to trade Brady and replace him with Garappolo, but Kraft nixed it (pay attention Jimmy Haslam!!!)
Oops zingg sorry!
...Ok but Freddie Kitchens obviously has a different personality than Belichick 1.0 (or 1.1). Freddie is also an offensive guy zzingggg unlike Freddie, who zinnggg is clueless about defenses since he is not a Defensive Coordinator like Steve Wilks or whovever.
I believe that Freddie Kitchens will do fine vs Tomlin, Harbaugh, etc., because he almost can't help it.
If you expect Freddie Kitchens or Baker Mayfield to choke, or something, due to ancient history, and despite talent...well are you cultists or something?
No 🖕 offense, but Steelers/Ravens/Bengals fans, if Baker Mayfield and the 2019 Browns don't terrify you, you need a brain transplant.
