Saturday, March 17, 2018

Revised Browns Draft Guesstimations

I didn't understand the McCourty-dump.  Thomas Moore (scroll down from Gurzi's Five Free Agents article) has some theories.

My own were a little different; that is that Jason is pushing 32 and, while very much a part of the present, is not part of the future here.  I also suspected that Dorsey, and ex-player, was trying to do McCourty a favor (letting him sign elsewhere for more money, and perhaps more time, coming off his fine season).

But Tom is right: He was dirt-cheap, was the best cornerback on the team in 2017, and is a veteran leader.  If Dorsey is serious about challenging the Steelers in 2018, you'd think McCourty would come in handy.

Thomas cites some (positive) things McCourty said about the talent on the roster after the season ended.  These comments could have been interpreted as a criticism of Hue Jackson, and a pre-emptive contradiction to Dorsey's hyper-ignorant comment about the current roster lacking "real players".

McCourty, a real player, might have asked Dorsey what he was talking about.

I don't know.  The fact is, Dorsey has signed three veteran cornerbacks (pencil one in at free safety if you want, but he's a proven man corner).  Howard Wilson, drafted last season, will return from injury, and at least one will be drafted in a very deep cornerback draft.  That's a bunch of players, even excluding Damarious Randall (probable safety), and Boddy-Calhoun (nickel).

The Jets big move up to the Colts third overall draft slot changes everything.

The Colts might well have drafted Saquon Barkley, but the Jets are unmistakeably after a quarterback.

The Giants and Browns will no doubt get a bunch of phone calls about all their top picks now.  Buffalo is one of those teams.  Hue Palmer might not get this, but AJ McCarron isn't considered a franchise guy.

The Patriots have dominated that Division since we came out of the trees.  Check out the respective quarterbacks.  Buffalo is close enough to make a move, and has plenty of ammo (starting with 12 and 22, and including the top third round pick the Browns gave them for Tyrod).

They'll call Elway too, because signing Case Keenum doesn't mean he won't nab a quarterback, and that move would be cheaper.

In fact, it's been suggested that Elway might call the Giants and try to move up to two himself, but that's unlikely.  The Broncos are very talented, and will contend in 2018.  They'll want an immediate impact guy, or a bunch of new players ready to start.  And count on John Elway to like Case Keenum a lot more than everybody else does (you just have to trust me on this one).

The Bills are actually the only team with a shot to make a big move.  If Elway makes a deal, however, the Bills have to accept that up to three quarterbacks will be off the board by then.  And which three?

Aside from heading Elway off at the pass in case he's waiting for his quarterback(s) to fall to him, number four wouldn't change that.

Only number one or number two would work for them.

John Dorsey might sell first overall for the tastiest parts of two draft classes, but otherwise forget it.  This leaves the Giants at second overall.

The Giants need passrushers, defensive...nevermind they need stuff.  They do think that Eli will last a couple more seasons, but definitely have to look at a quarterback here as his eventual replacement.

However, they're kind of "in between".  With Beckham and Marshall back, and that super-tight end entering his second season, that offense can rack up a lot of points.  With a few key additions (mostly on defense), they are contenders in 2018.

In an exceptionally deep draft class, quarterbacks with real upside will be available in the second, let alone mid/lower first round.  With Eli, that guy can marinate on the bench for two years.

It's a marriage made in heaven!  

Tough, though.  It's ten slots.  That's 12 and 22, their 2019 first round pick, the top third round pick, and more just for starters.

Buffalo might opt to take a quarterback at twelve...OR...

Well, fourth overall is only eight slots to move up.

Assuming (big assumption btw) Dorsey drafts his new quarterback first overall, that means two or three gone by fourth, with Elway looming.

Some of you are shouting "nooooo!" here, dreaming of Barkley, Fitzpatrick, or Chubb.  I respect that.  I'm not even advocating a trade-down here...much.

Setting aside 22nd overall, the Bills 2019 first round pick, etc (etc etc), your issue is missing out on another Julio Jones. I gotta repeat this: Mohammud Sanu sets the table for Jones.  The other 21 players all matter too!

Also, in this draft, there may well be other trades for second-tier quarterbacks between four and twelve.

We can safely assume that Barkley/Chubb/Fitzpatrick are gone by twelve, but let's check out who might still be there: Using Bucky Brooks's mock draft here:

Bucky has FS Derwin James (second only to Minkah) at nine, OLB Raquon Smith (the best) at ten, Josh Allen at eleven (chuh! I must have dug up Bucky's first draft!  No that was twelve.  DT Danny Vita was eleven), CB Mike Hughes at thirteen, DE Marcus Davenport at fourteen, and (I'll stop it here) WR Calvin Ridley at fifteen.

The majority of these players will be there at twelve.  Of particular interest to the Browns are Davenport, Ridley, and Hughes.

While Davenport would rotate in as an edge-rusher (Ogbah is really good dammit), Ridley runs the whole route-tree and would compete to start immediately opposite Gordon (and make Coleman tradeable, if that's on the agenda).  Hughes is a stud corner who could start immediately.

These are really good players who would make immediate impacts, and are "game-changers".  They're not quite as good as the guys at the top (well actually Ridley and Hughes are considered the best at their positions), but they'll do!

I gotta bring number 22 back here.  Phil Savage says there are 22 "first round talents" in this draft.  Some of the quarterbacks who will be overdrafted will skew this, causing several of Phil's top non-quarterbacks to slide.

This is where Dorsey could land Derrius Guice, the consensus second-best running back in this draft.  Although he weighs in at 212 lbs, he's compared to Marshawn Lynch.  He personally describes himself as a "pinball", because he richochetes off defenders, breaking tackles.

He is a proficient receiver already, and has upside in this area.

Barkley is bigger, faster, more advanced as a blocker and receiver, but Guice similar to, but better than, Carlos Hyde, and would START over Hyde almost immediately.

All three first round picks would be effectively signed for five (instead of four) years on their cheap rookie contracts.

Just spitballin' here, but which is better: Saquon Barkley, or Calvin Ridley and Guice... and a mid first round pick in 2019 and a bunch of other draft picks (more in 2019 and 2020 than 2018, since (on this planet) this roster is already very talented.)

I know.  Barkley is a freak.  Still a tough call.  But I'm analytical, so...

No comments: