Pat Kirwan, who laughs at "moneyball", likes to add up bench press reps, standing high jump scores, and broad jump scores to estimate a player's explosiveness (call this "quick twitchiness").
Pat's hypocrisy aside, it's an excellent analytical tool.
Today, Laquon Barkley benched 29 times and jumped 41 inches (he hasn't done his broad jump yet).
Pat adds these up, so he's got 29 plus 41 so far for an "explosive" score of 70. 70 is high. Pat fully expects LaQuon to broad jump 11 feet for a score of over 80. That's amazing.
Of course, several other running backs scored high. It's kind of a foregone conclusion that Barkley will come out on top of Pat Kirwan's explosive test (and no kidding it really does work--I just wish somebody would point out to him that it's "analytics").
But not by a whole lot. This running back class might be even deeper than the quarterback class.
However, Barkley also ran a 4.41 40, at 233 rocked-up pounds.
Just got an update: Every other running back stumbled somewhere. Guice ran a 4.49 but benched only 15. Nick Chubb was a close second to Barkley in the Kirwan test, but he and Scarborough ran mid to high 4.5 40s.
Speaking of Scarborough, it bugs me he don't talk english. I mean, he go to college and everything, and he still talk like this.
Conversely, Barkley is really smart and actually charismatic. (I liked all the other running backs too. They all spoke english and seemed smart. I especially liked Sony and Darrius.
The Kirwan scoring so far looks like Barkley, Nick Chubb, Scarborough, and Sony Michel. A note here: Guice ran a 4.49 and did well in the jumps. I don't think his 15 reps on the bench (15) should hurt him as much as it does, since the lower body means a lot more for running backs. I still like the guy a lot.
Among the offensive tackles, Kolton Miller was the overall winner by a significant margin (we're not on the Kirwan formula anymore here; it's not for big uglies).
Although it doesn't look like my man Brian O'Niel benched at all, he did run a tight end-like 4.8 40 and "won" the 3-cone drill too.
Everybody already knows Colton Miller, who is probably the best left tackle prospect here. But I have to look at this in context through my Browns goggles, and the math says the Browns won't be able to draft him.
Brian O'Neil entered college as a wide receiver, then played tight end, then became a tackle as he grew to 6'6". He's 290 lbs right now.
He was at the Senior Bowl, and was so-so. He gets pushed around by power guys, and in turn doesn't push people around either.
However, as a left tackle (most recently) in college, he did a good overall job at left tackle until he got hurt.
Per Walter Football (I had to link it because it was an unusually fair and thorough scouting report by that particular author), scouts (pre-combine) were all over the map on this guy, projecting him from the first to the 4th round and lower.
We can hope Joe Thomas hangs around for awhile longer, but Dorsey has to cover left tackle in this draft. O'Niel looks great to me.
This is a terrific athlete, just growing into his frame. He's obviously not prone to excessive lardage, so the weight he gains will be mostly muscle.
His growth has been stunted by position-changes, and he is obviously raw and weak right now. In case you didn't hear "right now", re-read that.
Brian O'Niel should weigh over 310 lbs by 2019, and if Big Joe sticks around, this guy can learn from a master.
Joe Thomas himself, coming out of Wisconsin, wasn't a great drive blocker. He was a a superior athlete. He managed physical passrushers with difficulty, speed rushers with ease, walled off big guys and tracked down and smashed little guys on runs.
O'Niel is not like Big Joe was when he was drafted yet, but in 2019, he should be.
While I seem to be the only person on Earth who hasn't already buried Roderick Johnson, O'Niel could be a smart insurance pick, even high in the second round.
As Tony Grossi opined on NFL Radio, the Browns are aleady jam-packed with punks. Tony was talking about how trading down wouldn't make sense (along with the obligitory "you have to draft a quarterback first no matter what" stuff).
This is way too simplistic. An O'Niel would be a practice squad guy in 2018, or possibly the designated third blocking tight end and key special teamer. He wouldn't compete for a backup (let alone starting) role until 2019.
As I've already pointed out, draft picks are easily deferred into the future (ask Belichick). They're also negotiable. You can use them to trade for veteran players.
And Tony, Mary Kay, et al are "no matter what" thinkers (aka absolutists): See my last post.
What John Dorsey has been saying might be his own idea, but it never the less has Paul DePodesta's fingerprints all over it:
1: As a team starts winning, it's draft status declines, along with it's cap space. Accruing future draft picks though trades is an obvious solution to clear thinkers, in order to sustain success.
2: Collecting blue-chip stud core players (and projects like O'Niel) in the final year of a rebuild is common sense.
2a: The objective is Superbowl wins and sustained contention. It is not a Superbowl appearance, cap hell/decline, and another rebuild.
2b: Drafted players are much, much cheaper than veteran free agents (who "bust" almost as often as rookies).
The new regime will let several of Sashi Brown's players go. Not nearly as many as ignorant people think since, in reality, Brown did a great job, and John Dorsey isn't mentally impaired...but several lower-profile guys.
3: Turnover and attrition are inevitable for every successful team. All perennial contenders rely on the draft, and not free agents, to sustain themselves.
Ask Ozzie Newsome. Joe Flacco's contract crippled him, and he had to cut some of his best players loose. He slapped a bandage on it with veteran free agents, and it didn't work.
He drafted low, and missed. Now he's dumping the free veteran he signed so he can nab better ones, and is drafting low again.
Who will replace Joe Flacco?
I'm not bashing the Wiz here. I'm just saying, he's in worse trouble than the Browns are, and if you set aside the hyperbole, he's probably going to finish behind the Browns in 2018, and that will only get worse going forward.
4: If Dorsey were to trade down here, he can still draft a brand new cheap quarterback, a Chubb/Barkley/Fitzpatrick, a fourth high 2018 second round pick, and first/second round picks in 2019/2020.
5: The Browns need a future left tackle, a bellcow running back, three defensive backs, a couple wide receivers, a third edge-rusher, and...well that's it except the quarterback.
You can't find a left tackle in free agency, ever. This year, you can probably nail down a corner and a safety....
That's all for now quarterbacks next
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