Saturday, March 3, 2018

Combine QBs, Draft Strategery, and the Browns

Sources: Charlie Weiss, Pat Kirwan, Jim Miller, Gregg Cosell, Ryan Leaf and some other guys on NFL and Fantasy Radio.

Josh Allen: Jim Miller has to lead this off: Jim noted that all of Allen's inaccurate throws are to the left side of the field.  Jim says it's because Allen is spoiled by his arm, and doesn't open his hips to throw to that side.

By this, Jim just means that Allen doesn't bother repositioning himself to throw in that direction.  Throwing to his left from the pocket, Josh Allen's mechanics suck, but Jim says this is an easy and instant fix.  Charlie Weiss saw the same thing.

Gregg Cosell (who's right with Miller and Mayock on quarterbacks) didn't mention this, but did say that Allen's inaccuracy comes from his foot placement, and points out that lower body issues like that can be fixed.

Phil Savage and Jim Miller both said that Josh Allen was "head and shoulders" the best performer in the throwing drills.  Kirwan compares him to Big Ben.

However, Kirwan and Miller (real-time) were again impressed by Baker Mayfield, the "human jugs machine".

Kirwan calls him that because his mechanics are perfect and natural, so his arm isn't stressed at all, and because every pass to every receiver was perfectly timed and placed.

Everybody, without exception, called Mayfield by far the most accurate quarterback here.  Nobody had anything negative to say about his "it" factor or actual performance in games.  Weiss spoke at length about how his teammates (including defensive players) looked to him for inspiration.

Cosell said he looked at over 130 plays, and discovered that in all but five, Mayfield was "in-system" (ie executed the called play, and wasn't improvising).

The one negative Cosell pointed to was that Mayfield didn't handle blitzes well, and he has to fix that before he starts in the NFL, because opposing defenses will be attacking him until he proves he can burn them consistently.

Everybody agreed that Josh Rosen looked great, and was mechanicly perfect.  Aside from his assenine political bullcrap and stories about his teammates not liking him, and his concussions and lean frame, he's a winner.

In fairness, Rosen may have changed somewhat, but well...look at Kaperdick nay, Alec Baldwin.  Mayfield won't get smashed and run from cops again, but Rosen...well that's a mental disorder.

Sam Darnold didn't throw, but it's possible that he's working on his mechanics (they needed work: Cosell said his feet and upper body don't work together).

Lamar Jackson is and will be a quarterback.  Miller and Weiss were surprised by his accuracy in drills, and pointed out that he ran a pro offense in college.

Weiss, in response to (Buzzkill Bill Polian's) suggestion that he convert to wide receiver, said "He won a Heisman in 2016! He was statisticly better last year than he was then!"

Weiss is the guy who tried to recruit Terrelle Pryor out of highschool as a wide receiver (and got yelled out of there by Pryor and his coach).

Mike White looked good too.  Luke Falk had a bad day.

The consensus is that Mayfield was almost perfect but Allen looked best by a mile.  Color me befuddled.

Mike Mayock agreed that Allen was the big winner today, and he and Daniel Jeremiah note that his footwork is improving under Jordan Palmer's tutelage.  Count David Carr as a Branch Allenian too.

I have to admit, all these legitimate experts saying this stuff has forced me to take Josh Allen more seriously.  Actually, I would be a butthead if it did not.

Guys with sub-60% completion percentages succeed in the NFL only 20% of the time.  Matthew Stafford is the most notable exception.

However, these guys brought up a bunch of stuff worth considering:

First, the "easily fixed" footwork issue, along with the fact that all his passes to the right side of the field are on the money.

Second, Matthew Stafford himself.  He was "inaccurate" in college, but had an exceptional arm.  

Third, Carson Wentz.  Charlie Weiss (or somebody) pointed to Wentz's inaccuracy on deep passes.  He said that it persisted through 2016, but "you can't fix that in season".

This is partly why, after a great start, Wentz faded as his rookie season progressed, and defenses started squeezing his short and intermediate routes.

After an offseason to tighten up his mechanics, Wentz was awesome in 2017.

With Wentz, this was actually partly his throwing motion (not just his feet).  Gregg Cosell tells us that changing how a quarterback's arm works is nearly impossible, but Wentz did it.

With Josh Allen, according to everybody, his upper body is already perfect, and all he needs to do is place his feet better on throws to his left.

I still think Baker Mayfield is the best of these quarterbacks, but all these experts have dragged me, kicking and screaming, into not calling Josh Allen another DeShone Kizer anymore.

If you admit that Mayfield is Rodgers or Brees, I'll admit that Allen is Big Ben.

I also admit that Josh Rosen is exceptional too.  But it's hard to change your personality, or even to keep your mouth shut for long if you suffer his condition(ing).

That aside, all the experts cited a lack of mobility, his concussions, and his "fragile" frame as red flags too (whew!😉)

I'm kinda off the Darnold wagon at the moment, but probably not for good.

I'm now considering thinking about ranking Mayfield and Allen close enough that either would work at F O U R T H overall...

I'm getting ahead of myself again here (especially since the math doesn't preclude them going second and third respectively...time to check out Darnold again I guess...)

Well, Barkley is just historic, ok?  He benched more than Joe Thomas.  He jumped higher than Julio Jones.  He ran faster than DeShaun Jackson...at 233 lbs🤤.

With the Colts and Giants at 2 and 3, it's a LOT more likely that Allen or Mayfield make it to four than this unprecedented lab experiment.

One theory a former GM on NFL Radio suggested was that Dorsey put his first overall pick on the block to gather intellingence.  It goes like this:

Anybody who calls him with an offer is telling him that they want to trade up.  We can assume that it's for a specific quarterback, but Dorsey can check out their roster to make sure, and he and the coaches can dig deeper into their offensive systems and draft histories to peg the quarterback they are targeting.

Assuming he doesn't take the deals, he now knows what would happen if he takes Barkley first overall.  The Colts would have a similar offer, as would the Giants (most of these deals are pre-made on a contingengency basis).

Without trading down, John Dorsey could now, based on the offers he got and the teams he got them from, know almost for sure if one of his two quarterbacks would be there at four.

This gets complicated.  If the Browns picked Barkley first overall, that leaves all the quarterbacks still on the board.  The Colts are now more likely to trade down, since they might have been targeting Barkley themselves.  This means a quarterback going second overall.

The Giants appear to be in "win now" mode, and are close to doing it.  Injuries annihilated their receivers last season, and they'll all be back in 2018.  Eli Manning is going to last awhile.

They are unlikely to use their third overall pick on a quarterback in this draft (they can draft one lower). I think they want to trade down here, but if the Colts already have, there is only one quarterback off the board, which changes everything.

It's still complicated, because the Elway needs a quarterback, but even I can't go deeper until we see where Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum, Tyrod Taylor, and the great AJ McCarron go.

Anyway, Paul DePodesta and I think the Browns can nail down a MAJOR "difference-maker" offensive weapon AND a future franchise quarterback at one and four in this draft.

Adam Caplan said that if the Browns got Barkley, they should trade Duke Johnson, since Barkley does everything Duke does.  

I love Duke, but Caplan right for a change. Sashi Brown pick Matthew Dayes does what Duke does, and Duke's contract expires after this season.  Duke has real value on the market, up to a 2019 second round pick, or a 2018 veteran cornerback or edge-rusher veteran...maybe a wide receiver?

Of course, Caplan also called the Browns receivers "a disaster", so he's still a dumbass on balance.  I'm just trying to be fair and give him credit for this one coherent thought.

...but...Josh Gordon...I mean, even if you write Coleman and Njoku off...how can anybody with a brain say this stuff!?!

Well I'm about to start over on quarterbacks again nevermind okbye



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