Back on the Sam Darnold Train

Thanks to USC Head Coach Clay Helton and analyst Daniel Jeremiah, I'm (sigh) back on the Sam Darnold train.  (Every time I try to get out, they pull me back in!)

I know I know, pick one and stick to him, right?  You know that's stupid, don't you?  If you don't adapt to new information, you are an idiot (no offense).  I might change my mind 13-14 more times before the draft.  So what let's see if my final choice was right later!  That's all that matters, right?  It's more important than digging in and defending my original statement no matter what!

To clarify, I still love Baker Mayfield--that will not change (unless he does something stupid again).

I was discouraged by what Ohio State did to Darnold in the playoffs.  Darnold looked just terrible, especially scrambling around in the middle of four passrushers waving the ball around in one hand...I mean that was just plain stupid.

Baker Mayfield never had a game like that.  Never.

Sure, Clay Helton will have better luck recruiting if Darnold is drafted ahead of Rosen, and of course loves the kid, but intelligence analysis is not for amateurs, okay?  Don't try this at home.

Helton also needs to be credible, and if Darnold falls on his face after all his gushing, potential recruits and their parents won't trust him.

And what really matters is what he said:

In 2017, USC lost three offensive linemen to injury, and in general had less talent around Darnold than they did in 2016, when his TD-pick ratio was 4:1.

Jeremiah (a "good source" with no dog in this hunt), regards Darnold as just as good as Wentz, and as good as any quarterback coming out in the last three drafts.

Helton sorta says "Air-what?"; He says Darnold ran a pro system with line-checks and multiple reads.  He promises that teams will be impressed with him on the white board, and his processing speed.

Yes, there's some hyperbole going on here.  I could see what Gregg Cosell was talking about mechanicly; he's got issues there.  

Helton says the best thing about Darnold is his ability to throw accurately, and from various angles, while on the run, and without his feet set.  This makes me want to double-check what Gregg Cosell said.

Does Gregg work from the result of the throw backward (ie a bad throw vs a good throw), or does he just study mechanics, period?

Because even in 2017, Carson Wentz's "legs and upper body weren't on the same page" as he threw on the run, but those were some of his biggest plays.

And I have to say again, Jeremiah's Wentz comparison is an easy one for even a non-expert (shhh!) like me to see, because he looks and moves like Carson Wentz (it's uncanny).

Darnold has a lot less experience at quarterback than Wentz did (he was a linebacker).  But Wentz played in a much smaller pond, with superior relative talent surrounding him.

I do like Darnold personally.  He's not all fiery and forceful like Mayfield, but Helton insists he's a terrific leader nonetheless.

Frankly, Darnold reminds me of me (long story/ah, shaddap🖕)

While Baker Mayfield, despite his Air-Raid offense, looks more advanced, and I seriously doubt that Darnold will ever be that accurate (Mayfield is amazing, really), he is a lot bigger and stronger, and...

Well, Gregg Cosell is really good at analyzing quarterbacks, and 2-3 posts ago I told you that out of over 130 pass plays Gregg looked at on Mayfield, he was only "out-of-system" (ie improvising on a broken play) five times.

I actually now suspect that Darnold is the better "creator", or broken-play salvager, of the two!

This is good news.  Right now, the Brain Crust in Berea is probably debating about four quarterbacks, with Darnold and Mayfield probably in the lead.

Rosen has two concussions, isn't very athletic, and has locker room question marks.  Allen has generational talent, but the accuracy issues (however, I remind you of that previous post again: Jim Miller and Charlie Weiss said his bad throws are always to his left, and it's because he's lazy about his foot-placement, so I'm not counting him out, since per both these guys, that's easily fixed and in fact it looked like it had been at the combine.  And he's a great kid too by the way).

Is it possible that John Dorsey really meant it when he insisted "best available player" 3 times to Brady Quinn on NFL Radio?

The guys on NFL Radio are now saying stuff like "well if he takes a quarterback, he can just say 'yeah, he was the best available player'" and doing all sorts of other mental contortions, but I think Dorsey will draft Saquon Barkley first overall, because he is...well...the best available player.

Regardless of position.  Regardless of need.  Best available player, period.  That's what it means (translating english into english again here).

The Giants and Colts probably each wanted Barkley, and (in this scenario), here's my read:

It's 99.9% probable that one of them will trade down, and 77% probable that they both do, and that two quarterbacks come off the board at 2 and 3.

If John Dorsey really has one (or two) favorite quarterbacks, HE can trade up to make sure he gets him.

John Elway won't go nuts here (trust me).

Dorsey only has to move up one or two slots here, and his lowest second round pick is the starting point.  It could end up costing him his second-lowest, or top third round pick as well (or else the top second round pick, period), and maybe he can package Kizer in to save something)...

But listen to me here for once:

It really IS possible that John Dorsey deems three quarterbacks acceptable here!

Sure, it's the most important position, and a "miss" is a career-ender, and 50% of even top five quarterbacks crap out hmmm...

What if Dorsey just throws darts, or rolls dice? He has a 50% chance, right? 

What did the great talent scout Hue Fisher say about franchise quarterbacks?  He said the prime ingredients are a good offensive line, running game, receivers, and defense.

As much as I pick on him, Hue is substantially correct.  He's a tad overboard on that theory, and he persuaded Jimmy Haslam to force Sashi Brown to offer a second and third round pick for AJ McCarron late last season, so Dorsey and company really need to moderate the poor guy...but I digress:

Let's listen to Buzzkill Bill Polian here (ok well we need to delete his dismissal of Josh Gordan as a "potentially good number two" here, and his ignorance of Njoku's existance, and his adjudging Duke Johnson as a "nice complementary piece", since obviously that is all sheer idiocy):

Buzzkill says it doesn't matter which quarterback starts for the Browns, since their offense is devoid of playmakers.

Polian actually favors the Browns drafting Barkley first overall.

Hue and Bill are both right here: a strong running game and playmakers take a lot of heat off quarterbacks, and Barkley is otherworldly.  

Based on Dorsey's vehement and unambiguous statements, I have to think that Barkley is the apple of his eye at number one.

Look, I really like Guice, and Sony, and some other guys here, but Barkley is ready to go right now, and none of the other guys can hit home runs like he can on any given touch.

Dak Prescott was an underrated quarterback (so stipulated), but look what happened to him when Zeke went down...even with Joe Morris!  And certainly, Dak's instant stardom as a rookie had a thing or two to do with fellow rookie Zeke Elliot, no?

Check out Jared Goff in year two: absent Jeff Jackson, Todd Gurley was his top receiver as well as runner: How much of that was Goff's improvement, and how much was it a smarter use of Gurley? (Acually it's a combination of both, but Gurley mattered, see?)

Carson Palmer loses David Johnson e voila!

Hue Fisher handed the keys over to Todd Haley here, and being an infernal optimist, I assume he will be more adaptable to his roster than Hue Palmer was.

Let's compare Laquon Barkley to Ebineezer Bell:

Barkley is bigger, quicker, and faster.  Haley used zone-blocking to help Bell out (as Hue Fisher should have with the erstwhile Isaiah Crowell...dammit).

But Barkley is like Bell: He's an instinctive runner.  He can hit a pre-designated pair of holes vertically, but (citing his scouting "negatives" here), he swerves outside "too often", but "got away with it"...

That's too deep, but you do know that Todd Haley wants this guy bad, right? You get the Bell on steroids part of this, right?

Well, even if it's Josh Allen (parked on the bench behind a veteran QB and Kizer), even Buzzkill Bill can't say that the "difference-maker" he's described is another (oh, I don't know...Josh Gordan?) on the Browns offense.  

Now forget Jarvis Landry for all that money.  Allen Robinson is target number one (assuming he passes a medical exam).

Robinson isn't much different from Rodney Gordanfield.  He's a home-run hitting big-play outside receiver with a big catch-radius (you know--to help your quarterback out?)

The Browns can beat any (sane) offer for this guy, but if Hue has his way and AJ McCarron is the bridge guy, Robinson will probably take less money to sign somewhere else.

If anybody except McCarron is the bridge guy, he'll take the Browns seriously...as long as they're the top bidder...with guaranteed money front-loaded and stuff.

Robinson is the total package. He can go deep, or take shallow crossers etc deep, like Gordon.  He knows that with Gordon opposite him, he'll get lots of one-on-one coverage, and couldn't be pidgeonholed...

But he needs to see a reasonably aggressive veteran quarterback with an arm, so that he can run under a long bomb occasionally.

Dorsey's best bet is to nail his quarterback down immediately if not sooner, so that Robinson and other potential signees know what to expect.

If he could nail down Keenum/McCown up front, it would make Robinson more likely.  If he got Robinson in turn, other top free agents would take the Browns a lot more seriously, especially given Barkley and a top quarterback on-deck.

Believe it or not, a deep-threat outside receiver kinda likes the combination of an aggressive quarterback and a team playing from behind a lot---

But that's deep and I'm tired okbye.