Josh Allen ooh! Ahh! His footwork looked a lot better at his pro day and he's got a bazooka. Yes he's a central casting quarterback I get all that.
But Baker Mayfield is still better, and Darnold and Rosen will remain more accurate too.
I get the other side of it: Allen can threaten more of the field than the other guys. That is, he can reliably hit back shoulders 5-6 yards deeper, and out-cuts on the sidelines 2-3 yards deeper: Allen pushes the envelope, and can spread defenses out a little more than other guys.
GMs and coaches figure they can tweak things a little to spread defenses out more with a guy like Allen, to open up the middle and the run, etc.
But I still say accuracy, and the ability to deliver when the bullets are flying, are more important than this.
I'm not saying that Allen is a dingbat or anything; only that I just don't know. And while quarterbacks can fix their foot placement (like Tom Brady did), it's much harder to master "bucket" throws, or to significantly improve ball-placement at over ten yards, etc.
Much as I dislike Rosen the person, he and Mayfield are much safer prospects than Allen and Darnold, because their floors are much higher, and they don't need any "fixing".
Their hard-wiring is already installed. Allen and Darnold are still getting soldered and spliced, with half their guts on the work-bench, and you have to cross your fingers when you plug them in again.
What does everybody say about a top five quarterback? "You'd better not miss".
Rosen's floor is lowered due to injury/concussions/limited mobility. Mayfield's floor is the highest. Mayfield's cieling is also as high as any of these guys, if you believe that perfect touch and accuracy are more important than throwing 80 yards instead of just 70.
That's an analytical thing, though. It's why Derrick Anderson had one great season and then reverted to permabackup. Derrick had a howitzer arm too! Ooh! Ahh!
Drew Brees was the most accurate quarterback in the NFL in 2017. Who had the strongest arm? I dunno...I guess Big Ben was one, but I don't think any of the other strongest arms made the playoffs, unless Matt Ryan was one.
Brady isn't a big-arm guy, really. Keenum sure as hell wasn't.
...Accuracy and touch are more important than arm-strength, PERIOD...but anyway Mayfield's arm is second only to Allen's in this class (stick a fork in yourself you're done).
Speaking of analytics, Cynthia Frelund wrote a great article on how John Dorsey is using analytics.
This article is a little closer to a Master's Thesis than it is to a sports article (I had to go back and re-read parts of it myself), but she really nails it...mostly.
Her most important point was that analytics is a tool. It was never intended to replace "football guys". The football guys still have to analyze quarterback mechanics, personalities, work ethic, character, dedication, guts etc.
Cindy uses one of my favorite words: "Context".
You can watch all the films you want, but unless you're compiling complex stats at the same time, your human brain will NOT form an objective picture of who you're looking at. You will form "ooh-ahh" fantasies in your mind, and start shrugging off the negative stuff. This is how we are wired by nature, ok? First impressions, right?
Context:
Look at every interception thrown by a guy, and see if there's a pattern:
Deep middle? Deep outside? Pressure? Scrambling? In do-or-die last ditch situations? Deflections? Bad routes? I could go on (and on and on) but you get it, right?
Our brains aren't built to figure this stuff out, especially since our thoughts are influenced by emotions and hormones.
Bill Belichick has always used analytics intuitively. For decades, defensive and offensive coordinators have had "quality control" coaches studying films on upcoming opponents, looking for patterns/weaknesses:
"This guy can't hit the broad side of a barn scrambling to his left". "They haven't figured out how to handle this specific stunt yet". "He doesn't trust anybody deep; he hesitates" that's analytics gdammit!!!
Quality control coach is an entry-level position, partly because aspiring coaches learn to be analytical in this way!!!
Great article. And yes, Dorsey is sneaking into the basement late at night to consult DePodesta.
With all due respect to Brian Billick, I don't get why he doesn't get how Hue Jackson could declare Tyrod Taylor the startng quarterback and the quarterback they draft a benchwarmer.
"If you draft a guy first overall, he's got to come in and make an impact right away."
Ok that must be how "football guys" think. Us analytical guys are willing to stash a first overall pick on the shelf for a season if it's smarter in the long term. Billick was a coach, and not a scout, though, so he spent his carreer thinking short-term/immediate impact in order not to get fired.
Billick is really smart. He won a Superbowl with Trent Dilfer. But he's not objective.
Obviously, Tyrod Taylor is a seasoned veteran, and had a much weaker supporting cast (especially at wide receiver) than he will have here. Obviously, the Browns had 16 mil to spare, and a third round pick, to resolve the starting quarterback issue for 2018.
Obviously, Taylor was massively SAFER than the legendary AJ McCarron, even though he cost 10 mil more and a top third round pick CONTEXT CONTEXT CONTEXT.
Tyrod Taylor is durable, protects the ball, and is a dual threat. Contrary to popular hallucination, he has the arm to run any offense. He played in Buffalo, so he can play in Cleveland.
As you guys know, I liked Case Keenum a lot, but Taylor was a close second.
C O N T E X T: Dorsey had FIVE draft picks (including first and fourth overall) above the one he paid to Buffalo for Taylor. Taylor's 2018 salary is kinda CHEAP for what he can do with this talent in 2018 vs his Bills teams.
His contract expires after this season. Big deal. His job is to win in 2018. If he goes nuts, Dorsey can seek an extention (context):
Tyrod Taylor (like Keenum but unlike the great McCarron) insures (barring injury) that the quarterback Dorsey drafts can remain on the bench for one season. This, in turn, means that Allen and Darnold (the projects) are in play with the more Pro-ready Rosen and Mayfield.
Dorsey just added cornerback EJ Gaines at cornerback. That's an analytics move as well. He's hammered a strong veteran free agent cornerback market, and turned a kinda doomed asset (DeShone Kizer) into a top-notch corner or maybe free safety to upgrade a distressed secondary (inexpensively, and geezers need not apply).
Gaines seems to be better in zone than in man coverage, but Gregg Williams uses both, and moves people around a lot. Gaines' injury history has also clouded his prognosis as a man-corner (more analytical research required). Seems to me my man Thomas Moore recommended Gaines highly a couple weeks ago, and Tom knows his stuff.
Thomas Moore is big on analytics, though, so obviously he can't be right as often as he is, ya know, cuz, like, moneyball like you know...
But I digress: Dorsey has upgraded the Browns secondary significantly (even letting McCourty go for peanuts), and doesn't need to worry about that in this draft.
Terrelle Pryor, after his magical mystery tour, signed with the Jets. Well, McCown is the starter so far, and a third overall quarterback will take over at some point. He has a shot at being the X there (not a chance here) so, money aside, I can't bash him.
Dorsey might not have been as impressed by Pryor as us yokels were, and we need to be objective. For all we know, Dorsey never seriously pursued him.
For all we know, Dorsey might think Corey Coleman isn't washed up yet!!! Todd Haley might think using Njoku and DeValve simultaneously isn't unthinkable!
Oh I forgot: "Hue Jackson's system" (nevermind what HE said about handing the offensive keys over to Haley). And Dorsey is identical to Sashi Brown and Ray Farmer too right?
Sorry I forgot. Same ollddd Brownzzzzz oyeeee
No comments:
Post a Comment