Monday, March 12, 2018

Real Analysis of Dorsey, Browns Trades

Damarius Randall, per Mike Mayock, was the best coverage (free) safety in his draft class.  Mayock stressed the strong trend in the NFL towards free safeties who could man-cover fast wide receivers.

Obviously, a couple seasons later, Mike was right.  Mike compared Randall to Jimmy Ward.

Scouting reports made a big deal of Randall's being "undersized" (he was 5'11", 197 lbs at his combine), and is no doubt over 200 lbs by this time--I mean pick-pick-pick gimme a break there is a difference between free and strong safeties!  Pick-pick-pick just listen to Mayock he was a defensive back.

Most defensive coaches will use anybody with strong man-coverage skills at cornerback first, because those guys don't grow on trees, and coverage is a lower priority for safeties.  That's why Randall played cornerback for Green Bay; he was just that good.

Gregg Williams is a little different.  As you have forgotten, he ideally wants a linebacker/strong safety hybrid player, and an "angel" (as in guardian angel) safety who (yes) plays the deep middle.

Peppers...the rookie, first year, inexperienced "angel" who, last season, lined up deep on a whopping 30+ % of the time, underperformed in that role last season, and everybody except Gregg Williams declared him a permanent bust there, just as they decided DeShone Kizer is terminally the worst quarterback in history---but I digress:

Damarius Randall (and Rodney Nacuafield, and McCourty) are all better candidates to play free safety here in 2018, and Randall may indeed be the favorite now.

If you look at the "weaknesses" part of the linked scouting report (not a bad one by the way), Randall's instincts as a safety weren't great, he had box (strong) safety aggression without box size, and (translation) could be suckered.  Prisco even said he could be forced to play cornerback, so...

But back to Gregg Williams:  Williams' "angel" is first and formost a coverage guy, and second, a guy who will come downhill quickly to blast people.

Ideally, Gregg wants Ed Reed, but (note to Browns fans) Hall of Famers don't grow on trees.

Still, Randall has refined his coverage skills up close and personal as an NFL cornerback, and learned a thing or two.

As to his instincts, that can't be taught--but Ed Reed will be the first to tell you, his "instincts" were 90% film-study.  That's literally true for every NFL free safety.  "Instincts" apply to running backs and linebackers, not to free safeties.

Oh, taking proper angles to make tackles or drive ballcarriers out of bounds in the heat of the moment okay that's instinct...but not overpursuing an in-cut (fake), taking a false step in response to a quarterback's "look-off" (then heading for the real receiver instead), and stuff like that is all preparation.

I can't guarantee that Damarius Randall will watch 20 hours of film per-opponent like Ed Reed did, but I can guarantee that if he does, he'll be a really good (coverage) "angel" for Gregg Williams.  (The tackling angles and stuff is a different story).

In a perfect world, Randall works out at free safety (and isn't "forced" to be a man corner again...which wouldn't suck but aint perfect) so that Peppers (and Rodney Kindredfield) can play strong, hybrid, and cover two safety.

As I write, Dorsey is trying to sign priority free agent cornerbacks, and of course will draft at least one (this draft is deep at cornerback).  That's partly to avoid using Randall there instead of at "angel".

The Tyrod-bashers are coming out of the woodwork, and I'm glad to see that Buffalo fans include almost as many clueless people as Browns fans do!

1: "If his primary receiver isn't there, he just runs":  Actually, Tyrod tends to hang in the pocket too long sometimes, like Big Ben.  This criticism is diametrically opposed to reality.

2: "He can't throw deep": Here are Tyrod's wide receivers in 2017, and that's about what he's had all along.  Arm-strength was never an issue for him, even in the scouting reports that said he would be a good running back.  If he has a Josh Gordon (or Terrelle Pryor) he'll uncork it.

Indeed, check this out, and compare it to what people are saying about him now!  They didn't think he could even play quarterback!  Dumb throws, reckless, inaccurate...

If you are objective, you've got to admire this guy.  That scouting report was not dumbassitude!  Taylor has evolved, massively.  I mean now, he's a "game manager"!!!

This could really work out!  Tyrod is probably jumping up and down "Josh Gordon?!?  I get to go deep!?!  Njoku too really?  FREE AT LAST!  FREE AT LAST!  THANK GOD ALMIGHTY (etc)"

...not that Tyrod is (neccessarily) the savior.  Dorsey has to still draft a quarterback at one or four (I think).  I can safely predict that Taylor will kick ass in this offense with these weapons, but not that he can come from behind and take over games at crunch time consistently (he is far from perfect, but I'll leave that to the haters for now).

I'm glad to read that Dorsey is trying to extend Duke Johnson, and I believe Duke is 100% sincere about wanting to retire as a Cleveland Brown.

But Jarvis Landry changes things.  Dorsey is trying to nail him down long-term as well, and if he does, it will undermine Duke's value to the team.

...of course, these two players and their agents are aware of this.  Skip the agents:

Duke just wants to stay here.  He knows he's lost the primary slot to Landry, and that Barkley does everything he does (except better).  He wants to retire here, but also knows that he is in demand.  Will he take less money to stick around, in a reduced role?

Landry turned down 14 mil/year.  As Thomas Moore pointed out, we can forget about 119 receptions here in Cleveland, with Josh Gordon, Njoku, a running back (or two) and Coleman (etc) eating into his targets...

On the other hand, here, he wouldn't have to be a surrogate running back, and could average over 10 yards per-catch.  Here, he might play less, stay healthier, last longer, and (yes) be part of a massive turnaround.

Would Landry accept what the Fish offered him to stick around with Taylor, a top five quarterback, Josh Gordon, Todd Haley, a strong running game and defense, and John Dorsey?

Well if not, then screw him, okay?  A fourth and seventh round deferred pick is cheap for what Landry can do for the Browns in 2018, and Dorsey gets a nice compensatory pick if he lets him walk.

Ditto Tyrod, by the way: Another compensatory pick (assuming he's not re-signed).  His 4th round runneth over.

Business is business. DePodesta gets this, and (based on my research so far) so does "football guy" John Dorsey.

Either or both of Duke Johnson or Jarvis Landry, once extended or re-signed long-term, are tradeable.  He'll front-load the guaranteed portions to 2018 to make the player "cheap" as of 2019...

Oh excuse me I was thinking Sashi Brown here...but DePodesta is still here, and I can't assume John Dorsey the football guy doesn't comprehend this...

Frankly, I personally almost hope that Landry stays greedy, because I love Duke, and prefer lethality to dependability.

Indeed, what if Duke Johnson had been in Landry's place in Miami these last four seasons?  Well, he might have only caught THREE hundred passes...for 11-plus yards per-catch (and more touchdowns).

I get it (I think): Dorsey had to prime the pump to get veteran free agents to take the Browns seriously.

...ok here's the deal:

1: Landry and his agent KNOW he's not the big fish in the little pond anymore, so his stats will not be impressive in 2018.  They KNOW that Landry's value will plummet in 2018 as Tyrod Taylor has Gordon/Njoku/Duke/and maybe Barkley (and yes DeValve, and Coleman (or his replacement) to throw to.

Dorsey will spell it out for them.  Here is what we offer.  If you don't take it, you're screwed.

2: Duke Johnson sees Landry undermining him in 2018, and sees a bellcow (maybe Barkley) on the horizon, and Matthew Dayes pressing him.

Right NOW, Duke would command a pretty sweet deal, but in 2019?  Todd Haley is taking over this offense.  Landry is already here.  I won't get deeper here, but this is more bad than good for Duke (let alone Barkley).

Same as Landry, his production (and market value) is about to take a dive.

It's possible that John Dorsey can re-sign both Duke and Landry for reasonable prices.

Front-load the guaranteed monies, and now they're trade-bait.

Most of you people would crap out as General Managers, because you are emotional, and "fall in love" and stuff.  I love Duke Johnson as much as you do (like Joe Thomas or Josh Cribbs), but it doesn't shut my brain down.

Matthew Dayes is new in town, but is damn near a Duke clone, and a lot cheaper, and locked up for two more seasons.

Lord Insideous (Bill Belichick) is "heartless" (in fact I believe he intended to trade Tom Brady and replace him with Garopollo, and was overridden by Robert Kraft).

I can't even blame Bill for taking chump-change for Jimmy G, and not bothering with Sashi Brown.  Bill was insane at the time.  I get it.  Boy, do I get it!!!

You people...it's like Bill and I are Mister Spock, and you are Doctor McCoy.  

Anyway, I hope Duke and Jarvis are more Spock than McCoy.

THIS JUST IN: Daryl Ruiter says the Browns need help in "just about every area".  I'm so sick of this irrational pod-person bullcrap.

Define "area":  Might that include the starting front seven, tight end, and offensive line?  Define "every".  Does that mean 40% of the team?  Savvi englais?  I reckon Daryl has "just about" nailed down...ok no, not even that.  "Just about" means "almost", or "approximately", and he blew that too.

Define "area".  Well, I've already mentioned the front seven, offensive line, and tight end.

Secondary?  Yeah that's an "area".  Wide receiver?  Ok that too.  I guess you could call quarterback and running back as "areas", but define "every".

Even conceding this, do Landry/Gordon/Coleman need much help?  Does Tyrod Taylor matter?

Stop it, pod people!  Words mean things.  Think before you mindlessly blabber bullcrap.

Prior to Dorsey's trades, and ass uming that none of the first and second year players will improve at all, Ruiter's opinion is obviously hyperbolic bullshit, and I'm sick of it.

We can debate free safety, ignore the trades...I can't keep pointing out the obvious.  If you can't think straight, I can't fix you.  

This is what happens when you delete critical thinking from the curriculum...dammit.

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