Andrew Gribble is a good writer, but sometimes needs some minor corrections. In his recent "Browns Mail Bag", here are his errors:
1: This is kind of ticky-tack of me, but I wouldn't have told the unwashed masses that the Front Office is not satisfied with any position group, because a whole bunch of them will take that to mean that they think everybody sucks.
Remember who you're talking to, Andy! He is right, of course, as most NFL teams are never satisfied.
On Andy's behalf, let me say that interior offensive line, defensive tackle, linebacker, cornerback, safetybacker, and tight end are in pretty good shape. Yes, if Dorsey could add a superstar player and make them even better, he would, so there is that.
Taking this a little further, I can cite closet analytics guy Pat Kirwan to say this: You can't strictly draft best available players. If you ignore a need, and draft a player who you don't need (assuming you have these two players ranked pretty close to eachother), you are wasting picks. You end up kicking quality starters to the curb, and the upgrade is usually marginal.
2: Nobody in this draft class can start at left tackle as a rookie. The athletes with left tackle tools are unfefined and inexperienced (all projects). Some guys could start at right tackle in 2018 (in certain offenses), but none at left (especially here).
...well that's all I got. As usual, Andy did a good job.
One emailer mentioned Josh Cribbs' presence here as an intern (which is really cool; Josh wasn't very fast, or even that quick, but accomplished what he accomplished because he was smart (and super-tough).
The emailer brought up wide receiver Christian Kirk as a possible second round addition (Kirk is a terrific returner, as well as one of the best wide receivers in this class).
Kirk is generally regarded as a slot prospect, because he's 5'10" and relies on quickness more than speed.
With Duke and Jarvis Landry (not to mention the tight ends don't make me explain that please), the Browns don't need another slot guy, and you don't burn second round picks on returners.
There will be several skyscraper possession receivers (think Evans or Kelvin Benjamin) available here, and (I'm guessing) that these are the wide receivers Dorsey will target.
Not just Peppers, but Duke Johnson (and others) are returners. The Browns have lots of returners.
Let me circle back to what's wrong with most fans (and pundit's) "need" estimates:
Gregg Williams is unique, and so are his defenses. When people talk about "linebacker depth", they ignore Peppers and Kindred, who do a lot of linebacker stuff here. They also ignore the fact that nickel defenses are now the de facto "base" defenses in the modern NFL.
Jamie Collins is also unique, and Williams won't use him the same way he uses Christian Kirksey.
Oh goody! Randy Gurzi has done another seven round Browns mock draft!
It starts with Sam Darnold at first overall, but Gurzi says he would personally take the best quarterback in this draft himself, but just expects the Browns to overvalue size.
At fourth overall, since the Jets big trade-up, Randy kind of expects Barkley and Chubb to both be here, and he believes that the Browns would opt for Saquon Barkley here.
Like me, he says there is no "wrong" pick here. He notes the existance of Rodney Ogbahfield, however, and thinks the generational running back will be the pick.
Atop the second round, Randy surprised me with offensive tackle Chukwuma Okofor ("Nooooo!!!"): -Doug Dieken-
This guy is a massive 6'6", 330-plus pounds. He played four seasons: First at right tackle, and the last two at left tackle. Before that, he was a soccer player (and he has good feet).
He sometimes plays too tall, and gets bull-rushed, and he's been dinged for not being "nasty" enough ("lacks aggression"), but the reports I've seen differ.
Okofor could be one guy who could possibly start at left tackle as a rookie! I have to take back my correction of Andrew Gribble here (thanks loads, Randolph!)
He'd have a shot at it, but if he gets beat out there (by Coleman or Rodney Johnsonfield), he could elbow his way in at right tackle as a rookie. Okofor does have the physical talent to play left tackle in the NFL (sooner or later).
At 35th overall, Randy has the Browns drafting cornerback Isaiah Oliver. Randy stipulates that the John Dorsey has already stocked up on quality cornerbacks, but doesn't think he's done yet...Jamar Taylor started last season so...
Oliver is possibly the best cornerback in this draft. If Dorsey could snatch him this low, he almost has to do so. This would pretty much ice the cornerback cake. Including Howard Wilson, deleting Taylor, and pencilling in Damarius Randall at free safety, that's five boundary corners!
Next (last pick in the second round), Randy has the Browns drafting outside linebacker Darius Leonard.
I can't deny the kid's talent in every phase of the game. He's under 230 lbs right now, and frankly is redundant with Peppers and Kindred...
Dorsey might do this on a "best available player" basis, but as we see, he hasn't drafted a wide receiver yet, and I have to think he'd grab his skyscraper red zone possession guy here instead.
But of course, Leonard is also a really good blitzer, and they haven't added an edge-rusher yet either, so Randy might be right...especially since Barkley is a terrific receiver...dammit Randy...
He guesses a safety, edge-rusher, inside linebacker, and defensive tackle in rounds 4-7, but I won't investigate those much. I assume he was in strictly best available mode for these.
I have to point out here that Randy has the Browns drafting no outside wide receivers at all in this draft, and I don't buy it. Changing that linebacker into a big possession receiver at the bottom of the second round, this would be a great draft (except for not getting the best quarterback, of course).
Saquon Barkley would instantly make a similar impact to Bradley Chubb's. Screw the "running back" designation--he's a football player and a difference-maker!!!
Redundantationalizing again (sorry), he's a supercharged Duke Johnson. He's taller (catch radius), bigger (by 20 lbs), and faster. Barkley's combine numbers and stature rate him at or near the top of this class of wide receivers!!!
Barkley could line up outside, and go deep! He can blow the doors off a good man cornerback, and burn defenses as well as a lot of upper echelon wide receivers can on vertical routes!
Again, ignore the "running back" box and label: His proper designation is "lethal weapon".
Now, imagine Njoku, Gordon, Landry, and Barkley on the same field at the same time...is any of this sinking in yet?
Tyrod Taylor done died and went to heaven!!! That's his "dream-team"!!!
And try to comprehend this: That's four players I just listed. There are five offensive linemen (that makes nine). The quarterback makes ten. There is only one slot left to fill DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
Reduntating yet again, Tyrod Taylor has never had this array of weapons: LeShaun McCoy isn't much ahead of Duke Johnson. His tight ends and wide receivers weren't even close to what he will have here. His offensive line will be better.
We can safely anticipate a "more aggressive" Tyrod Taylor here (even if Dorsey drafts Chubb instead of Barkley DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D) ok I give up okbye
Saturday, March 31, 2018
Friday, March 30, 2018
Hue Palmer, Quarterbacks, Strategery, and John Dorsey
Bill Livingston has finally figured out what I did when the Browns hired Todd Haley: Hue won't be able to mess anything up in 2018. Jimmy Haslam didn't fire him, but has left him with little real power.
I kind of understood this at the time. For Haslam, to fire even a 1-31 Head Coach after two seasons would be have been a PR nightmare.
This way, at least, he retains Gregg Williams and several assistants, so there is some continuity, which has a lot to do with Free Agents' decisions to sign or re-sign with a team.
Make no mistake: It wasn't Sashi Brown's players. It was Hue Jackson, and how he used them. Kevin Hogan (yes Kevin Hogan) should have started game one. Isaiah Crowell should have had some zone-blocking in front of him. The offense should have kept running early in games (Hue never ran a balanced offense, even when the run was succeeding).
Two of his best receivers were tight ends Njoku and DeValve, but both were rarely on the field at the same time. Hue DID pick Kessler (Mary Kay is delusional "Taking one for the team" for cryin out loud), and Kizer:
Well, that was no DePodesta/analytics move! His college stats sucked! His inaccuracy was on display at Notre Dame! HUE wanted him, and was going to start him in game one come hell or high water.
Yeah, this was a "football guy" going with his "gut". And oh. My. God a second and third round pick for AJ McCarron--near the end of the season? HUE!!!
Mike Lucas seems to have spied in on one of Hue's therapy sessions. It's quite revealing.
And you people: "Well he didn't have any players" ZIETLER TRETTER NJOKU SHON COLEMAN GARRETT SHOBERT KINDRED PEPPERS MCCOURTY COLLINS OGUNJOBI COLEY BRANTLEY BODDY-CALHOUN ARE YOU FKNG BLIND OR JUST BRAINWASHED?
Oh yeah, Hue. Dorsey is "cleaning house" and getting rid of all those non-football players--when do you think he'll get around to getting rid of those non-football players huh?
(I didn't mention Kirksey, Duke, Bitonio, or Big Joe because Brown didn't bring them in).
As I had hoped, John Dorsey passed up AJ McCarron (whew!) and made sure to sign (in Tyrod Taylor) a proven winning veteran to make sure nobody can throw the draft pick into the fire prematurely.
He'll listen politely to Hue Jackson's input on who to draft at quarterback, but Hue has no credibility left.
Todd Haley, son of a Director of Scouting, former scout, and now in full control of this offense, will have a much stronger say in this, and if Hue is lucky, he will agree with Haley.
Pat McNanoman just keeps missing: Pat points out that drafting twice in the top five does not neccessarily lead to success (Bud Shaw's reply: NOT drafting twice in the top five yields similar results...dude is hysterical).
Here's what Pat missed: The most recent collective bargaining agreement and the rookie salary structure. All the teams Pat listed got run over by two Brinks trucks, and were forced to dump a bunch of players so they could afford the two top first round picks!
Prior to the rookie cap, nobody really wanted two high first round picks! They routinely held out, missing camp time, and gouged every last penny they could out of their new team.
So Pat's article is irrelevant. Assuming Dorsey doesn't trade down, the two top five picks (even the quarterback) won't put a major dent in Dorsey's budget. He can still extend the players he wants to keep, and even add some more--and thanks to Sashi and Paul, roll a bunch over into 2019.
Remember the word "context"? Somebody tell Pat McNanoman to look it up!
Speaking of Bud Shaw, he had a comment or two on Ryan Leaf (Darnold should try to avoid being drafted by the Browns) as well. I wish I could be as funny as Bud.
I have to talk about the best quarterback in this draft class again (sorry):
Hue's story about how he walked into Oklahoma's building with Baker Mayfield, and he says "hee-hee" (I assume it's Micheal Jackson's version), and everybody else, including the trainers and coaches, "hee-hee" back at him is impressive.
Everybody was happy to see him, you see? And instantly grinning, and screwing around, having fun, you see?
"Hee-hee" is probably an inside semi-joke they all have, but if you fill in the blanks, everybody is looking back at Mayfield with big smiles on their faces, you see?
That's a born leader. Everybody just loves this guy. He's planted flags, grabbed his crotch, and exhibited other classless, immature behaviors (including the rediculous fleeing from police arrest; Ross Tucker thinks the cop that caught him should play in the NFL btw), but I was his age once too, and I was worse (just never got caught).
Sure, he needs to cut that stuff out.
But all of the on-field stuff was aimed at the opposing team (and their fans), and (unfortunately) is partly why they love him.
With his coaches and teammates, he's all positive. No grabbing facemasks or yelling at people. No arguments on the sidelines.
I can't prove this, but I now have enough info to project a little:
When the chips are down, and everybody in the huddle is all grim and angry, I'm pretty sure Mayfield cracks a joke, and they laugh and relax.
Picture this: The team is losing. Mayfield looks at all the grim, tense, determined faces (with a similar expression). Then says "Hee-hee!" with a big smile. No speeches. Just that. And they all grin back and laugh. The tension is broken. They see that their field general isn't troubled, and they know they're going to win.
That's a leader of men, you see?
Now, theory of x, theory of y, there are lots of ways to lead. Leaders can be made, as well as born.
Tom Brady is a taskmaster. He demands perfect routes from all his receivers (he's worse than the position coaches). He is extremely effective.
Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning are/were a little different. More easy-going (although they still correct their receivers frequently in practice).
Mayfield is (I believe) Brady's polar opposite. If you screw up in practice, he might slap your helmet and call you a dickhead, but with a smile on his face. He might ask you, "can you count to twelve without taking your shoes off? If not, we'll have to get somebody who can, because you can't take your shoes off on a play, you know?" (Just imagining, but you get the idea).
I don't think Mayfield is a genius or anything, or as funny as Bud Shaw or anything, but I am convinced that he naturally inspires those around him to excel personally, and is fun to be around.
That MATTERS A LOT. Maybe even more than 70% accuracy (and 65% on deep passes), and perfect mechanics, and extending plays running around, and throwing accurately on the run, and durability, and a quick release.
Hue Jackson's comments have to be taken with a grain of salt. The very fact that he made them means he wants people to think he likes Mayfield (it's called "disinformation").
...Hmm...insideously diabolical trickeration and deceit: Everybody KNOWS everybody lies, so Hue might have Dorsey's green light to just be honest! If Mayfield is the real target, everybody except maybe Lord Insideous will ignore everything Jackson says anyway, or even assume it means the Browns DON'T like Mayfield!
Again, Haslam and the full crew at the Allen and Darnold Pro Days only means they need all the information they can get on them. It certainly does NOT disqualify Rosen or Mayfield, who are both mechanically advanced, and show plenty of tape.
The media (including Mel Kiper) leap to conclusions based on false premises:
1: The full contingents at the Allen and Darnold Pro Days vs the apparent lack of interest in Rosen and Mayfield.
2: The notion that Hue Jackson will decide.
3: The preconception that only big/tall quarterbacks can succeed in the AFC North.
4: The assumption that Todd Haley wants another Big Ben (instead of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees)...simply because he inheritted Big Ben.
For that matter, ignoring what Hue Jackson said about arm talent, accuracy, and "face of franchise ability", and expecting him to dismiss every quarterback under 6'2" who HAS all the rest, when Cody Kessler was HUE's pick (he's shorter than Mayfield btw).
...okay I heard that! Bullcrap! HUE said "you'll have to trust me on this one" (took ownership/staked his reputation on) that pick, and Mary Kay Cabbott was utterly insane to suggest that he was "taking one for the team" (ie trying to cover Sashi's butt for this THIRD ROUND pick in advance). But her insane assertion was repeated, and came to be accepted as fact (Goerbels eat your heart out!)
NO. HUE JACKSON picked Cody Kessler, and owned up to it!!! The rest is bullcrap. Mary Kay might as well be Hue's PR rep wtf is up with her ohmmm...ohmmmm...
Anyway Kessler was exceptionally accurate (and a pretty boy) but didn't work out. For those of us who don't take MKC too seriously, we figure he could be in Mayfield's corner now.
Mayfield has a MUCH stronger arm, is even purtier, is a lot more athletic, played at a okay nevermind you get it. The "6'2" cutoff point" is largely fictional:
Hue mentioned that around fourth on his list, and has said repeatedly that this is a general guideline/there are exceptions, but everybody ignored that part (especially MKC).
I have no idea what Dorsey will do here. Here's my Blog: you can go back and see how wrong I've been (like 75% of the time) trying to predict what given GMs would do in drafts.
I do think Mayfield IS in play with Allen and Darnold, and Rosen is out (his concussions, immobility, personality).
My own opinion of Mayfield doesn't matter. Trying to predict Dorsey/Haley's favorite, I have to declare a three-way tie.
Interesting, no? Sorry to redundate again, but the notion that the Browns Brain Crust might deem three of these quarterbacks as roughly equal is NOT unthinkable.
In which case, the first overall pick is in play (but only for the Jets at 3, or the Giants at 2). This would be especially tasty if Mayfield is their slight favorite, since he's projected as the fourth quarterback drafted.
Me? I don't screw around. I take Mayfield first overallđź–• and see what happens after that.
Somebody probably gives up most of two drafts to nab Allen or Darnold second (if the Giants don't), and at fourth overall Barkley, Chubb, and Fitzparick are all still there...and everybody wants that fourth pick.
Me? Tough call. I think I'd take Barkley over Chubb or Fitzpatrick, but it's close. Here I consider that Ohio State cornerback...could I trade down and still make sure to get at least him? Naturally, the "haul" would have to be huge...
Once you're past Quarterback, the rules change. Now, you can "gamble" a little, you see? But if you can make sure that the least you'll get is THE best cornerback in the draft, if the "haul" is big enough, then you do it.
I can already hear you caterwalling about who they could have had (if the best cornerback in the class is what you had to "settle for"), but you'll feel better with a stud running back, future left tackle, massive possession receiver etc etc etc, and (it will take you awhile), but come this time in 2019, two first round picks again...
You guys need to get past the instant gratification stuff okay? John Dorsey wants to build a dynasty. And you do that with draft picks, and over time.
I'll show you how Lord Insideous has done this, despite annually drafting in the bottom fourth of each round as he kept winning, in a later post.
I kind of understood this at the time. For Haslam, to fire even a 1-31 Head Coach after two seasons would be have been a PR nightmare.
This way, at least, he retains Gregg Williams and several assistants, so there is some continuity, which has a lot to do with Free Agents' decisions to sign or re-sign with a team.
Make no mistake: It wasn't Sashi Brown's players. It was Hue Jackson, and how he used them. Kevin Hogan (yes Kevin Hogan) should have started game one. Isaiah Crowell should have had some zone-blocking in front of him. The offense should have kept running early in games (Hue never ran a balanced offense, even when the run was succeeding).
Two of his best receivers were tight ends Njoku and DeValve, but both were rarely on the field at the same time. Hue DID pick Kessler (Mary Kay is delusional "Taking one for the team" for cryin out loud), and Kizer:
Well, that was no DePodesta/analytics move! His college stats sucked! His inaccuracy was on display at Notre Dame! HUE wanted him, and was going to start him in game one come hell or high water.
Yeah, this was a "football guy" going with his "gut". And oh. My. God a second and third round pick for AJ McCarron--near the end of the season? HUE!!!
Mike Lucas seems to have spied in on one of Hue's therapy sessions. It's quite revealing.
And you people: "Well he didn't have any players" ZIETLER TRETTER NJOKU SHON COLEMAN GARRETT SHOBERT KINDRED PEPPERS MCCOURTY COLLINS OGUNJOBI COLEY BRANTLEY BODDY-CALHOUN ARE YOU FKNG BLIND OR JUST BRAINWASHED?
Oh yeah, Hue. Dorsey is "cleaning house" and getting rid of all those non-football players--when do you think he'll get around to getting rid of those non-football players huh?
(I didn't mention Kirksey, Duke, Bitonio, or Big Joe because Brown didn't bring them in).
As I had hoped, John Dorsey passed up AJ McCarron (whew!) and made sure to sign (in Tyrod Taylor) a proven winning veteran to make sure nobody can throw the draft pick into the fire prematurely.
He'll listen politely to Hue Jackson's input on who to draft at quarterback, but Hue has no credibility left.
Todd Haley, son of a Director of Scouting, former scout, and now in full control of this offense, will have a much stronger say in this, and if Hue is lucky, he will agree with Haley.
Pat McNanoman just keeps missing: Pat points out that drafting twice in the top five does not neccessarily lead to success (Bud Shaw's reply: NOT drafting twice in the top five yields similar results...dude is hysterical).
Here's what Pat missed: The most recent collective bargaining agreement and the rookie salary structure. All the teams Pat listed got run over by two Brinks trucks, and were forced to dump a bunch of players so they could afford the two top first round picks!
Prior to the rookie cap, nobody really wanted two high first round picks! They routinely held out, missing camp time, and gouged every last penny they could out of their new team.
So Pat's article is irrelevant. Assuming Dorsey doesn't trade down, the two top five picks (even the quarterback) won't put a major dent in Dorsey's budget. He can still extend the players he wants to keep, and even add some more--and thanks to Sashi and Paul, roll a bunch over into 2019.
Remember the word "context"? Somebody tell Pat McNanoman to look it up!
Speaking of Bud Shaw, he had a comment or two on Ryan Leaf (Darnold should try to avoid being drafted by the Browns) as well. I wish I could be as funny as Bud.
I have to talk about the best quarterback in this draft class again (sorry):
Hue's story about how he walked into Oklahoma's building with Baker Mayfield, and he says "hee-hee" (I assume it's Micheal Jackson's version), and everybody else, including the trainers and coaches, "hee-hee" back at him is impressive.
Everybody was happy to see him, you see? And instantly grinning, and screwing around, having fun, you see?
"Hee-hee" is probably an inside semi-joke they all have, but if you fill in the blanks, everybody is looking back at Mayfield with big smiles on their faces, you see?
That's a born leader. Everybody just loves this guy. He's planted flags, grabbed his crotch, and exhibited other classless, immature behaviors (including the rediculous fleeing from police arrest; Ross Tucker thinks the cop that caught him should play in the NFL btw), but I was his age once too, and I was worse (just never got caught).
Sure, he needs to cut that stuff out.
But all of the on-field stuff was aimed at the opposing team (and their fans), and (unfortunately) is partly why they love him.
With his coaches and teammates, he's all positive. No grabbing facemasks or yelling at people. No arguments on the sidelines.
I can't prove this, but I now have enough info to project a little:
When the chips are down, and everybody in the huddle is all grim and angry, I'm pretty sure Mayfield cracks a joke, and they laugh and relax.
Picture this: The team is losing. Mayfield looks at all the grim, tense, determined faces (with a similar expression). Then says "Hee-hee!" with a big smile. No speeches. Just that. And they all grin back and laugh. The tension is broken. They see that their field general isn't troubled, and they know they're going to win.
That's a leader of men, you see?
Now, theory of x, theory of y, there are lots of ways to lead. Leaders can be made, as well as born.
Tom Brady is a taskmaster. He demands perfect routes from all his receivers (he's worse than the position coaches). He is extremely effective.
Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning are/were a little different. More easy-going (although they still correct their receivers frequently in practice).
Mayfield is (I believe) Brady's polar opposite. If you screw up in practice, he might slap your helmet and call you a dickhead, but with a smile on his face. He might ask you, "can you count to twelve without taking your shoes off? If not, we'll have to get somebody who can, because you can't take your shoes off on a play, you know?" (Just imagining, but you get the idea).
I don't think Mayfield is a genius or anything, or as funny as Bud Shaw or anything, but I am convinced that he naturally inspires those around him to excel personally, and is fun to be around.
That MATTERS A LOT. Maybe even more than 70% accuracy (and 65% on deep passes), and perfect mechanics, and extending plays running around, and throwing accurately on the run, and durability, and a quick release.
Hue Jackson's comments have to be taken with a grain of salt. The very fact that he made them means he wants people to think he likes Mayfield (it's called "disinformation").
...Hmm...insideously diabolical trickeration and deceit: Everybody KNOWS everybody lies, so Hue might have Dorsey's green light to just be honest! If Mayfield is the real target, everybody except maybe Lord Insideous will ignore everything Jackson says anyway, or even assume it means the Browns DON'T like Mayfield!
Again, Haslam and the full crew at the Allen and Darnold Pro Days only means they need all the information they can get on them. It certainly does NOT disqualify Rosen or Mayfield, who are both mechanically advanced, and show plenty of tape.
The media (including Mel Kiper) leap to conclusions based on false premises:
1: The full contingents at the Allen and Darnold Pro Days vs the apparent lack of interest in Rosen and Mayfield.
2: The notion that Hue Jackson will decide.
3: The preconception that only big/tall quarterbacks can succeed in the AFC North.
4: The assumption that Todd Haley wants another Big Ben (instead of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees)...simply because he inheritted Big Ben.
For that matter, ignoring what Hue Jackson said about arm talent, accuracy, and "face of franchise ability", and expecting him to dismiss every quarterback under 6'2" who HAS all the rest, when Cody Kessler was HUE's pick (he's shorter than Mayfield btw).
...okay I heard that! Bullcrap! HUE said "you'll have to trust me on this one" (took ownership/staked his reputation on) that pick, and Mary Kay Cabbott was utterly insane to suggest that he was "taking one for the team" (ie trying to cover Sashi's butt for this THIRD ROUND pick in advance). But her insane assertion was repeated, and came to be accepted as fact (Goerbels eat your heart out!)
NO. HUE JACKSON picked Cody Kessler, and owned up to it!!! The rest is bullcrap. Mary Kay might as well be Hue's PR rep wtf is up with her ohmmm...ohmmmm...
Anyway Kessler was exceptionally accurate (and a pretty boy) but didn't work out. For those of us who don't take MKC too seriously, we figure he could be in Mayfield's corner now.
Mayfield has a MUCH stronger arm, is even purtier, is a lot more athletic, played at a okay nevermind you get it. The "6'2" cutoff point" is largely fictional:
Hue mentioned that around fourth on his list, and has said repeatedly that this is a general guideline/there are exceptions, but everybody ignored that part (especially MKC).
I have no idea what Dorsey will do here. Here's my Blog: you can go back and see how wrong I've been (like 75% of the time) trying to predict what given GMs would do in drafts.
I do think Mayfield IS in play with Allen and Darnold, and Rosen is out (his concussions, immobility, personality).
My own opinion of Mayfield doesn't matter. Trying to predict Dorsey/Haley's favorite, I have to declare a three-way tie.
Interesting, no? Sorry to redundate again, but the notion that the Browns Brain Crust might deem three of these quarterbacks as roughly equal is NOT unthinkable.
In which case, the first overall pick is in play (but only for the Jets at 3, or the Giants at 2). This would be especially tasty if Mayfield is their slight favorite, since he's projected as the fourth quarterback drafted.
Me? I don't screw around. I take Mayfield first overallđź–• and see what happens after that.
Somebody probably gives up most of two drafts to nab Allen or Darnold second (if the Giants don't), and at fourth overall Barkley, Chubb, and Fitzparick are all still there...and everybody wants that fourth pick.
Me? Tough call. I think I'd take Barkley over Chubb or Fitzpatrick, but it's close. Here I consider that Ohio State cornerback...could I trade down and still make sure to get at least him? Naturally, the "haul" would have to be huge...
Once you're past Quarterback, the rules change. Now, you can "gamble" a little, you see? But if you can make sure that the least you'll get is THE best cornerback in the draft, if the "haul" is big enough, then you do it.
I can already hear you caterwalling about who they could have had (if the best cornerback in the class is what you had to "settle for"), but you'll feel better with a stud running back, future left tackle, massive possession receiver etc etc etc, and (it will take you awhile), but come this time in 2019, two first round picks again...
You guys need to get past the instant gratification stuff okay? John Dorsey wants to build a dynasty. And you do that with draft picks, and over time.
I'll show you how Lord Insideous has done this, despite annually drafting in the bottom fourth of each round as he kept winning, in a later post.
Thursday, March 29, 2018
Don't Go to the Browns NOW? Really? Stuporstition and the Browns
Ryan Leaf says that Sam Darnold should try to avoid being drafted by the Browns.
He dragged out that old "where quarterbacks go to die" line, and was generally irrational about it.
To his credit, Cowherd mentioned the trades and signings Dorsey had already made, but Ryan wasn't listening.
What if Hue Jackson gets fired? Well, that was the only rational thing Leaf said. Yeah, that could be a problem, except Todd Haley is a former Head Coach and runs the offense. If he himself didn't take over for Hue, there's a good chance the new boss would retain him (and his offensive system).
In response to Dorsey, Wolf, etc., Leaf said "It's just the culture there". What the hell is he talking about? A whole new front office and offensive coordinator can't change a culture?
Do Jimmy and Dee Haslam patrol Berea telling everybody how to do their jobs? Do they insist that only depressing music can be played or something?
What Leaf is really saying is that there is this kinda wierd mystical kinda emanation of a penumbra of negative vibes like coming of Lake Erie or something like you know?
I liked Jarvis Landry's hype tape. It was cultural. Upbeat. Optimistic. I love that Tyrod Taylor got together to throw some passes to those guys, and I like that they were having fun.
That's going to be this locker room, Ryan! Everything is NEW here now, including everybody in Landry's video. What's up with you Ryan--you think losing is like a staph virus--with spores clinging to lockers and tackling dummies or something?
Dammit think with your brain!
Speaking of the Landry video, Ricardo Lewis and Njoku joined Landry with Tyrod Taylor. Well, Ricardo Lewis is about as good as any wide receiver Taylor had in Buffalo last season (including that high draft pick).
Ryan Leaf: Do you think Sam Darnold should avoid Josh Gordon, Jarvis Landry, Njoku, and Duke Johnson for uhh...cultural reasons?
Ryan cited Darnold only because he's the odds-on favorite in this race, but he really meant that no quarterback should want to be drafted by the Browns.
I like Ryan Leaf, and he's not stupid. But (like Brian Billick), he gets irrational sometimes. And this isn't like Dorsey signing Drew Stanton: Ryan Leaf is fulla beans.
Martin McDonnell wrote a great article on a certain short quarterback who shall remain nameless. He does make the point that accuracy and leadership matter.
Martin expects the Browns to draft Sam Darnold instead, simply because he is taller. He may be right, but it's still just plain stupid (and yes, I think I am right and Dorsey would be wrong. Let's see where the two quarterbacks concerned are in three years. You'll see!)
The Quenton Nelson at fourth overall rumors seem idiotic on the surface, but I've dug a little deeper and heard from my NFL Radio experts, and have to take a second look.
Nelson played left guard next to Mike McGlinchey, and is listed as a guard because he's just that good there.
However, Pat Kirwan and a few others have suggested that he could play left tackle. Nelson is 6'5" (329 lbs), so he does have the stature, and frankly quicker feet than McGlinchey.
If John Dorsey and his scouts think Nelson could play left tackle, they might just nab him.
It's not a huge gamble, because he's the best guard prospect to come out in several years, and if not left tackle, right tackle might work. Worst case: Dorsey gets to trade Zietler (and his salary).
My rejection of Joel Bitonio at left tackle might also have been too knee-jerk, but at least 40% of the guards in the NFL played left tackle in college, so that doesn't mean so much.
But right now, Joe Thomas himself said he thinks (Sashi Brown draft pick) Shon Coleman can play left tackle, and Joe is one guy you need to listen to on this topic...more than anybody else.
So I think the Quenton Nelson thing is out the window.
Speaking of Joe Thomas, you can't listen to him on every subject. He wanted Kirk Cousins bad, and said they should then use first and fourth overall on position players.
But Cousins is good, but not that good. Tyrod Taylor and a franchise quarterback prospect are a lot cheaper, with more upside.
But you can't blame Big Joe, who at the time was considering returning for one last season. Cousins would certainly have given the Browns their best shot at the playoffs in 2018.
Fortunately, Joe likes Tyrod Taylor a lot too, and Dorsey's trade got his seal of approval.
The Browns need to extend several players, like Duke and Kirksey (btw great move extending Tank Carder! Core special-teamer but looked great at middle linebacker last season too!)
The most interesting guy is Josh Gordon. As the linked article says, the Browns control him through 2019, and his history (and vulnerability to another "indefinite" suspension) deprive him of leverage.
The article suggests an incentive-laden contract (I suggested this awhile ago blush-blush) which would both protect the Browns if he falls off the wagon (or gets maimed), and pay him big money if he kicks ass (again).
Dorsey might be inclined to put this on the back-burner for now, but I hope he doesn't wait too long. If Josh Gordon tears up the NFL like he did before in 2018 (and stays clean), he'll get a lot of his leverage back, and get a lot more expensive.
By the way, every player mentioned in this article is a real football player.
Duke Johnson is THE bigee here: Duke isn't percieved as a "bell-cow" (or short-yardage) running back (Bill Polian calls him a "nice complementary player (yawn)".
But he's a swiss army knife. In addition to lining up at slot or outside receiver and catching passes out of the backfield, and doing a good job in pass-protection, he can run anywhere, including up the middle.
Duke has an exceptional stiff-arm, and is remarkably strong for his size. He epitomizes a "real football player", because he will not go down.
Duke is already kind of the heart and soul of this offense, like Earnest Byner was way back when.
Yes, of course, Dorsey is going to draft at least one big running back high in this exceptionally deep running back class, but Duke probably plays as much or more than the new guy does (all over the place) in Haley's offense.
Dorsey has to keep this guy!!!
THIS JUST IN: Randy Gurzi lets Hue Jackson have it! AMEN brother!
He dragged out that old "where quarterbacks go to die" line, and was generally irrational about it.
To his credit, Cowherd mentioned the trades and signings Dorsey had already made, but Ryan wasn't listening.
What if Hue Jackson gets fired? Well, that was the only rational thing Leaf said. Yeah, that could be a problem, except Todd Haley is a former Head Coach and runs the offense. If he himself didn't take over for Hue, there's a good chance the new boss would retain him (and his offensive system).
In response to Dorsey, Wolf, etc., Leaf said "It's just the culture there". What the hell is he talking about? A whole new front office and offensive coordinator can't change a culture?
Do Jimmy and Dee Haslam patrol Berea telling everybody how to do their jobs? Do they insist that only depressing music can be played or something?
What Leaf is really saying is that there is this kinda wierd mystical kinda emanation of a penumbra of negative vibes like coming of Lake Erie or something like you know?
I liked Jarvis Landry's hype tape. It was cultural. Upbeat. Optimistic. I love that Tyrod Taylor got together to throw some passes to those guys, and I like that they were having fun.
That's going to be this locker room, Ryan! Everything is NEW here now, including everybody in Landry's video. What's up with you Ryan--you think losing is like a staph virus--with spores clinging to lockers and tackling dummies or something?
Dammit think with your brain!
Speaking of the Landry video, Ricardo Lewis and Njoku joined Landry with Tyrod Taylor. Well, Ricardo Lewis is about as good as any wide receiver Taylor had in Buffalo last season (including that high draft pick).
Ryan Leaf: Do you think Sam Darnold should avoid Josh Gordon, Jarvis Landry, Njoku, and Duke Johnson for uhh...cultural reasons?
Ryan cited Darnold only because he's the odds-on favorite in this race, but he really meant that no quarterback should want to be drafted by the Browns.
I like Ryan Leaf, and he's not stupid. But (like Brian Billick), he gets irrational sometimes. And this isn't like Dorsey signing Drew Stanton: Ryan Leaf is fulla beans.
Martin McDonnell wrote a great article on a certain short quarterback who shall remain nameless. He does make the point that accuracy and leadership matter.
Martin expects the Browns to draft Sam Darnold instead, simply because he is taller. He may be right, but it's still just plain stupid (and yes, I think I am right and Dorsey would be wrong. Let's see where the two quarterbacks concerned are in three years. You'll see!)
The Quenton Nelson at fourth overall rumors seem idiotic on the surface, but I've dug a little deeper and heard from my NFL Radio experts, and have to take a second look.
Nelson played left guard next to Mike McGlinchey, and is listed as a guard because he's just that good there.
However, Pat Kirwan and a few others have suggested that he could play left tackle. Nelson is 6'5" (329 lbs), so he does have the stature, and frankly quicker feet than McGlinchey.
If John Dorsey and his scouts think Nelson could play left tackle, they might just nab him.
It's not a huge gamble, because he's the best guard prospect to come out in several years, and if not left tackle, right tackle might work. Worst case: Dorsey gets to trade Zietler (and his salary).
My rejection of Joel Bitonio at left tackle might also have been too knee-jerk, but at least 40% of the guards in the NFL played left tackle in college, so that doesn't mean so much.
But right now, Joe Thomas himself said he thinks (Sashi Brown draft pick) Shon Coleman can play left tackle, and Joe is one guy you need to listen to on this topic...more than anybody else.
So I think the Quenton Nelson thing is out the window.
Speaking of Joe Thomas, you can't listen to him on every subject. He wanted Kirk Cousins bad, and said they should then use first and fourth overall on position players.
But Cousins is good, but not that good. Tyrod Taylor and a franchise quarterback prospect are a lot cheaper, with more upside.
But you can't blame Big Joe, who at the time was considering returning for one last season. Cousins would certainly have given the Browns their best shot at the playoffs in 2018.
Fortunately, Joe likes Tyrod Taylor a lot too, and Dorsey's trade got his seal of approval.
The Browns need to extend several players, like Duke and Kirksey (btw great move extending Tank Carder! Core special-teamer but looked great at middle linebacker last season too!)
The most interesting guy is Josh Gordon. As the linked article says, the Browns control him through 2019, and his history (and vulnerability to another "indefinite" suspension) deprive him of leverage.
The article suggests an incentive-laden contract (I suggested this awhile ago blush-blush) which would both protect the Browns if he falls off the wagon (or gets maimed), and pay him big money if he kicks ass (again).
Dorsey might be inclined to put this on the back-burner for now, but I hope he doesn't wait too long. If Josh Gordon tears up the NFL like he did before in 2018 (and stays clean), he'll get a lot of his leverage back, and get a lot more expensive.
By the way, every player mentioned in this article is a real football player.
Duke Johnson is THE bigee here: Duke isn't percieved as a "bell-cow" (or short-yardage) running back (Bill Polian calls him a "nice complementary player (yawn)".
But he's a swiss army knife. In addition to lining up at slot or outside receiver and catching passes out of the backfield, and doing a good job in pass-protection, he can run anywhere, including up the middle.
Duke has an exceptional stiff-arm, and is remarkably strong for his size. He epitomizes a "real football player", because he will not go down.
Duke is already kind of the heart and soul of this offense, like Earnest Byner was way back when.
Yes, of course, Dorsey is going to draft at least one big running back high in this exceptionally deep running back class, but Duke probably plays as much or more than the new guy does (all over the place) in Haley's offense.
Dorsey has to keep this guy!!!
THIS JUST IN: Randy Gurzi lets Hue Jackson have it! AMEN brother!
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Odell Lookatme, Mock Idiocy, Allen, and the Browns
1: Trading for Beckham: This sounds like a great idea to impulsive fans, because Odell Beckham Jr is the real deal...well he was before he got maimed...
He should regain his old form...in time...however.
Thomas Moore covered the negatives pretty comprehensively: He'd have to have already been extended, since his contract expires after the next season (and he has announced that he won't play anywhere without a big raise in 2018).
Then you've got Odell's attention deficit disorder: For Odell, if he's not the center of attention, the deficit makes him do stuff to reclaim his spotlight. He's a MEMEME guy, and God help the rookie quarterback who isn't throwing him the ball.
It's scary to think about Beckham/Gordon/Landry(Njoku/Duke), but that's the problem: Odell wouldn't be the top dawg, because Josh Gordon is better, and Jarvis Landry is more reliable (and look tf out for Njoku 2.0 trust me).
Thomas talks about "Big personalities" here, but he shouldn't have included Josh Gordon. Josh gets targeted because he's just that good. He's actually a pretty quiet guy.
I don't know Landry yet, but as it is (and Thomas Moore pointed this out too), he's not going to be catching 100 passes on this team, and as-is I hope he will accept that.
The players and ex-players on NFL Radio all tell me that the meeting rooms and locker room matter, a lot. They almost universally agree that "attention-seeking behavior" is destructive, as it alienates the immature, selfish player from his teammates.
These guys want to be brothers, united with a common team goal, and "that feeling is important. When you've got some ass-hat in the middle of that, it's not fun anymore. That's a black cloud--it's depressing!"
Finally, Odell is all that, but so are Barkley, Fitzpatrick, Chubb, and perhaps four quarterbacks, and the asking price in draft picks will probably include at least the 4th overall pick.
...Nah!
2: Upon further review, my last three posts were about 70% identical. I apologize. In an effort to overcome my Mayfieldmania, here's something Phil Simms said about Josh Allen:
Phil reviewed all of Allen's 2017 films, and said he counted a grand total of fourteen the screen passes.
Many college quarterbacks throw 14 screen passes per game. The talent of his receivers aside, Allen's completion percentage was most certainly undermined by his offensive scheme.
And I have to restate what Jim Miller said about his "easily-fixed" mechanical issues throwing to his left.
So I've revised my quarterback rankings: Josh Allen might be the second-best quarterback in this class (behind the short guy).
3: In the words of Pat Kirwan, it's bargain-shopping free agent time in the NFL now. The free agents who haven't grabbed a chair by now are left standing, devoid of leverage.
One of these is Conner Barwin. Barwin is 31 years old, but as of 2017 could still put heat on enemy quarterbacks. As a 3-4 outside linebacker, he was not a pure passrusher.
With the Browns, he would be a rotational edge-rusher first, and emergency strongside linebacker second. Cheap one year contract. Limit his snaps to keep him fresh and healthy. Veteran leadership! Count on Dorsey to be chasing him.
4: I have a hard time figuring out why John Dorsey signed Drew Stanton. (But then, I'm analytical).
Ok the veteran "mentor" thing I grok. Despite Drew's absolutely horrific statistics, he has won more games than he's lost (not that Fitzgerald and company had anything to do with that).
Well, I have to stick to my policy here (especially with a PROVEN GM like Dorsey): Who tf am I to second-guess him (until he has screwed up at least a little?)
I hope Dorsey isn't one of these mystical "he's a winner" guys...
There are a few possible rational explanations for this apparently stupid move:
1: Stanton is like Josh McCown, and Dorsey knows he will take the rookie quarterback under his wing and accellerate his development.
2: He's CHEAP.
3: Maybe Dorsey dug deeper than I have so far, and has seen Stanton "deliver" in the clutch, regardless of his irrefutably putrid stats.
4: They can cut him.
At any rate, this signing looks stupid to me at this time, but Dorsey probably knows a tad better than me why he does what he does.
5 (resuming original sequence): Getting a conditional 7th round pick for Kessler beats the hell out of getting nothing for him. I haven't bothered looking at the "condition", but assume it's that he makes the final roster. (Update: Kessler has to hang around for six games).
They could nab a great long-snapper here!!!
6: If the Dorsey trades down (below number ten), Mike McGinchey is an unlikely target.
Verily, Joe Thomas's retirement opens a big hole, but you can't get desperate. McGlinchey is an awesome run-blocker, but mediocre in pass-pro, without much upside in that area.
This is a polished guy with great technique, but he still has slow feet, and (ex-tight end or no), is NOT a good left tackle prospect.
McGlinchey has a bright future in the NFL, but it's at right tackle, in a run-heavy offense.
7: Stop this Denzel Ward (at fourth overall) crap. It's rediculous.
I'm not bashing the guy, because he might just be the best cornerback in this draft (and I care a lot less about his "inexperience" than most others do).
But over Barkley, Chubb, Fitzpatrick, or a quarterback!?
And despite how Dorsey has already loaded up on young/proven cornerbacks in free agency? NOW you think Denzel Ward is better than nevermind just shut tf up. You are a mow ron, ok?
Ward would be a sweet add after the aforementioned hypothetical trade-down past tenth overall, but only if Chubb, Barkey, and Fitzpatrick are all gone jeez give me a break!!!
Ohmmm...ohmmm....
8: I won't include this link (and didn't bother reading the article), but DUH the Bills had multiple offers for Tyrod Taylor.
Why is this a revelation? Everybody in the NFL knows he didn't have much to work with (no knock on McCoy and his tight ends, but that was kinda IT, wasn't it?)
No really honest guys, the Browns have a quarterback which other teams wanted too!!! At 16 mil, for a top third round pick! DIRT CHEAP!!!
Were you banking on the great AJ McCarron or something?
Tyrod is not (so far at least) an elite quarterback, but is most certainly above average (especially given what he's had to work with so far).
9: All I see here is the monumental Cody Kessler trade and Odell Beckham Jr.
It's boring.
Well, I think I've made the most of it without being redundant for a change.
He should regain his old form...in time...however.
Thomas Moore covered the negatives pretty comprehensively: He'd have to have already been extended, since his contract expires after the next season (and he has announced that he won't play anywhere without a big raise in 2018).
Then you've got Odell's attention deficit disorder: For Odell, if he's not the center of attention, the deficit makes him do stuff to reclaim his spotlight. He's a MEMEME guy, and God help the rookie quarterback who isn't throwing him the ball.
It's scary to think about Beckham/Gordon/Landry(Njoku/Duke), but that's the problem: Odell wouldn't be the top dawg, because Josh Gordon is better, and Jarvis Landry is more reliable (and look tf out for Njoku 2.0 trust me).
Thomas talks about "Big personalities" here, but he shouldn't have included Josh Gordon. Josh gets targeted because he's just that good. He's actually a pretty quiet guy.
I don't know Landry yet, but as it is (and Thomas Moore pointed this out too), he's not going to be catching 100 passes on this team, and as-is I hope he will accept that.
The players and ex-players on NFL Radio all tell me that the meeting rooms and locker room matter, a lot. They almost universally agree that "attention-seeking behavior" is destructive, as it alienates the immature, selfish player from his teammates.
These guys want to be brothers, united with a common team goal, and "that feeling is important. When you've got some ass-hat in the middle of that, it's not fun anymore. That's a black cloud--it's depressing!"
Finally, Odell is all that, but so are Barkley, Fitzpatrick, Chubb, and perhaps four quarterbacks, and the asking price in draft picks will probably include at least the 4th overall pick.
...Nah!
2: Upon further review, my last three posts were about 70% identical. I apologize. In an effort to overcome my Mayfieldmania, here's something Phil Simms said about Josh Allen:
Phil reviewed all of Allen's 2017 films, and said he counted a grand total of fourteen the screen passes.
Many college quarterbacks throw 14 screen passes per game. The talent of his receivers aside, Allen's completion percentage was most certainly undermined by his offensive scheme.
And I have to restate what Jim Miller said about his "easily-fixed" mechanical issues throwing to his left.
So I've revised my quarterback rankings: Josh Allen might be the second-best quarterback in this class (behind the short guy).
3: In the words of Pat Kirwan, it's bargain-shopping free agent time in the NFL now. The free agents who haven't grabbed a chair by now are left standing, devoid of leverage.
One of these is Conner Barwin. Barwin is 31 years old, but as of 2017 could still put heat on enemy quarterbacks. As a 3-4 outside linebacker, he was not a pure passrusher.
With the Browns, he would be a rotational edge-rusher first, and emergency strongside linebacker second. Cheap one year contract. Limit his snaps to keep him fresh and healthy. Veteran leadership! Count on Dorsey to be chasing him.
4: I have a hard time figuring out why John Dorsey signed Drew Stanton. (But then, I'm analytical).
Ok the veteran "mentor" thing I grok. Despite Drew's absolutely horrific statistics, he has won more games than he's lost (not that Fitzgerald and company had anything to do with that).
Well, I have to stick to my policy here (especially with a PROVEN GM like Dorsey): Who tf am I to second-guess him (until he has screwed up at least a little?)
I hope Dorsey isn't one of these mystical "he's a winner" guys...
There are a few possible rational explanations for this apparently stupid move:
1: Stanton is like Josh McCown, and Dorsey knows he will take the rookie quarterback under his wing and accellerate his development.
2: He's CHEAP.
3: Maybe Dorsey dug deeper than I have so far, and has seen Stanton "deliver" in the clutch, regardless of his irrefutably putrid stats.
4: They can cut him.
At any rate, this signing looks stupid to me at this time, but Dorsey probably knows a tad better than me why he does what he does.
5 (resuming original sequence): Getting a conditional 7th round pick for Kessler beats the hell out of getting nothing for him. I haven't bothered looking at the "condition", but assume it's that he makes the final roster. (Update: Kessler has to hang around for six games).
They could nab a great long-snapper here!!!
6: If the Dorsey trades down (below number ten), Mike McGinchey is an unlikely target.
Verily, Joe Thomas's retirement opens a big hole, but you can't get desperate. McGlinchey is an awesome run-blocker, but mediocre in pass-pro, without much upside in that area.
This is a polished guy with great technique, but he still has slow feet, and (ex-tight end or no), is NOT a good left tackle prospect.
McGlinchey has a bright future in the NFL, but it's at right tackle, in a run-heavy offense.
7: Stop this Denzel Ward (at fourth overall) crap. It's rediculous.
I'm not bashing the guy, because he might just be the best cornerback in this draft (and I care a lot less about his "inexperience" than most others do).
But over Barkley, Chubb, Fitzpatrick, or a quarterback!?
And despite how Dorsey has already loaded up on young/proven cornerbacks in free agency? NOW you think Denzel Ward is better than nevermind just shut tf up. You are a mow ron, ok?
Ward would be a sweet add after the aforementioned hypothetical trade-down past tenth overall, but only if Chubb, Barkey, and Fitzpatrick are all gone jeez give me a break!!!
Ohmmm...ohmmm....
8: I won't include this link (and didn't bother reading the article), but DUH the Bills had multiple offers for Tyrod Taylor.
Why is this a revelation? Everybody in the NFL knows he didn't have much to work with (no knock on McCoy and his tight ends, but that was kinda IT, wasn't it?)
No really honest guys, the Browns have a quarterback which other teams wanted too!!! At 16 mil, for a top third round pick! DIRT CHEAP!!!
Were you banking on the great AJ McCarron or something?
Tyrod is not (so far at least) an elite quarterback, but is most certainly above average (especially given what he's had to work with so far).
9: All I see here is the monumental Cody Kessler trade and Odell Beckham Jr.
It's boring.
Well, I think I've made the most of it without being redundant for a change.
Friday, March 23, 2018
Analytics: Big Word! Four Syllables! Got a "y" in it!
Josh Allen ooh! Ahh! His footwork looked a lot better at his pro day and he's got a bazooka. Yes he's a central casting quarterback I get all that.
But Baker Mayfield is still better, and Darnold and Rosen will remain more accurate too.
I get the other side of it: Allen can threaten more of the field than the other guys. That is, he can reliably hit back shoulders 5-6 yards deeper, and out-cuts on the sidelines 2-3 yards deeper: Allen pushes the envelope, and can spread defenses out a little more than other guys.
GMs and coaches figure they can tweak things a little to spread defenses out more with a guy like Allen, to open up the middle and the run, etc.
But I still say accuracy, and the ability to deliver when the bullets are flying, are more important than this.
I'm not saying that Allen is a dingbat or anything; only that I just don't know. And while quarterbacks can fix their foot placement (like Tom Brady did), it's much harder to master "bucket" throws, or to significantly improve ball-placement at over ten yards, etc.
Much as I dislike Rosen the person, he and Mayfield are much safer prospects than Allen and Darnold, because their floors are much higher, and they don't need any "fixing".
Their hard-wiring is already installed. Allen and Darnold are still getting soldered and spliced, with half their guts on the work-bench, and you have to cross your fingers when you plug them in again.
What does everybody say about a top five quarterback? "You'd better not miss".
Rosen's floor is lowered due to injury/concussions/limited mobility. Mayfield's floor is the highest. Mayfield's cieling is also as high as any of these guys, if you believe that perfect touch and accuracy are more important than throwing 80 yards instead of just 70.
That's an analytical thing, though. It's why Derrick Anderson had one great season and then reverted to permabackup. Derrick had a howitzer arm too! Ooh! Ahh!
Drew Brees was the most accurate quarterback in the NFL in 2017. Who had the strongest arm? I dunno...I guess Big Ben was one, but I don't think any of the other strongest arms made the playoffs, unless Matt Ryan was one.
Brady isn't a big-arm guy, really. Keenum sure as hell wasn't.
...Accuracy and touch are more important than arm-strength, PERIOD...but anyway Mayfield's arm is second only to Allen's in this class (stick a fork in yourself you're done).
Speaking of analytics, Cynthia Frelund wrote a great article on how John Dorsey is using analytics.
This article is a little closer to a Master's Thesis than it is to a sports article (I had to go back and re-read parts of it myself), but she really nails it...mostly.
Her most important point was that analytics is a tool. It was never intended to replace "football guys". The football guys still have to analyze quarterback mechanics, personalities, work ethic, character, dedication, guts etc.
Cindy uses one of my favorite words: "Context".
You can watch all the films you want, but unless you're compiling complex stats at the same time, your human brain will NOT form an objective picture of who you're looking at. You will form "ooh-ahh" fantasies in your mind, and start shrugging off the negative stuff. This is how we are wired by nature, ok? First impressions, right?
Context:
Look at every interception thrown by a guy, and see if there's a pattern:
Deep middle? Deep outside? Pressure? Scrambling? In do-or-die last ditch situations? Deflections? Bad routes? I could go on (and on and on) but you get it, right?
Our brains aren't built to figure this stuff out, especially since our thoughts are influenced by emotions and hormones.
Bill Belichick has always used analytics intuitively. For decades, defensive and offensive coordinators have had "quality control" coaches studying films on upcoming opponents, looking for patterns/weaknesses:
"This guy can't hit the broad side of a barn scrambling to his left". "They haven't figured out how to handle this specific stunt yet". "He doesn't trust anybody deep; he hesitates" that's analytics gdammit!!!
Quality control coach is an entry-level position, partly because aspiring coaches learn to be analytical in this way!!!
Great article. And yes, Dorsey is sneaking into the basement late at night to consult DePodesta.
With all due respect to Brian Billick, I don't get why he doesn't get how Hue Jackson could declare Tyrod Taylor the startng quarterback and the quarterback they draft a benchwarmer.
"If you draft a guy first overall, he's got to come in and make an impact right away."
Ok that must be how "football guys" think. Us analytical guys are willing to stash a first overall pick on the shelf for a season if it's smarter in the long term. Billick was a coach, and not a scout, though, so he spent his carreer thinking short-term/immediate impact in order not to get fired.
Billick is really smart. He won a Superbowl with Trent Dilfer. But he's not objective.
Obviously, Tyrod Taylor is a seasoned veteran, and had a much weaker supporting cast (especially at wide receiver) than he will have here. Obviously, the Browns had 16 mil to spare, and a third round pick, to resolve the starting quarterback issue for 2018.
Obviously, Taylor was massively SAFER than the legendary AJ McCarron, even though he cost 10 mil more and a top third round pick CONTEXT CONTEXT CONTEXT.
Tyrod Taylor is durable, protects the ball, and is a dual threat. Contrary to popular hallucination, he has the arm to run any offense. He played in Buffalo, so he can play in Cleveland.
As you guys know, I liked Case Keenum a lot, but Taylor was a close second.
C O N T E X T: Dorsey had FIVE draft picks (including first and fourth overall) above the one he paid to Buffalo for Taylor. Taylor's 2018 salary is kinda CHEAP for what he can do with this talent in 2018 vs his Bills teams.
His contract expires after this season. Big deal. His job is to win in 2018. If he goes nuts, Dorsey can seek an extention (context):
Tyrod Taylor (like Keenum but unlike the great McCarron) insures (barring injury) that the quarterback Dorsey drafts can remain on the bench for one season. This, in turn, means that Allen and Darnold (the projects) are in play with the more Pro-ready Rosen and Mayfield.
Dorsey just added cornerback EJ Gaines at cornerback. That's an analytics move as well. He's hammered a strong veteran free agent cornerback market, and turned a kinda doomed asset (DeShone Kizer) into a top-notch corner or maybe free safety to upgrade a distressed secondary (inexpensively, and geezers need not apply).
Gaines seems to be better in zone than in man coverage, but Gregg Williams uses both, and moves people around a lot. Gaines' injury history has also clouded his prognosis as a man-corner (more analytical research required). Seems to me my man Thomas Moore recommended Gaines highly a couple weeks ago, and Tom knows his stuff.
Thomas Moore is big on analytics, though, so obviously he can't be right as often as he is, ya know, cuz, like, moneyball like you know...
But I digress: Dorsey has upgraded the Browns secondary significantly (even letting McCourty go for peanuts), and doesn't need to worry about that in this draft.
Terrelle Pryor, after his magical mystery tour, signed with the Jets. Well, McCown is the starter so far, and a third overall quarterback will take over at some point. He has a shot at being the X there (not a chance here) so, money aside, I can't bash him.
Dorsey might not have been as impressed by Pryor as us yokels were, and we need to be objective. For all we know, Dorsey never seriously pursued him.
For all we know, Dorsey might think Corey Coleman isn't washed up yet!!! Todd Haley might think using Njoku and DeValve simultaneously isn't unthinkable!
Oh I forgot: "Hue Jackson's system" (nevermind what HE said about handing the offensive keys over to Haley). And Dorsey is identical to Sashi Brown and Ray Farmer too right?
Sorry I forgot. Same ollddd Brownzzzzz oyeeee
But Baker Mayfield is still better, and Darnold and Rosen will remain more accurate too.
I get the other side of it: Allen can threaten more of the field than the other guys. That is, he can reliably hit back shoulders 5-6 yards deeper, and out-cuts on the sidelines 2-3 yards deeper: Allen pushes the envelope, and can spread defenses out a little more than other guys.
GMs and coaches figure they can tweak things a little to spread defenses out more with a guy like Allen, to open up the middle and the run, etc.
But I still say accuracy, and the ability to deliver when the bullets are flying, are more important than this.
I'm not saying that Allen is a dingbat or anything; only that I just don't know. And while quarterbacks can fix their foot placement (like Tom Brady did), it's much harder to master "bucket" throws, or to significantly improve ball-placement at over ten yards, etc.
Much as I dislike Rosen the person, he and Mayfield are much safer prospects than Allen and Darnold, because their floors are much higher, and they don't need any "fixing".
Their hard-wiring is already installed. Allen and Darnold are still getting soldered and spliced, with half their guts on the work-bench, and you have to cross your fingers when you plug them in again.
What does everybody say about a top five quarterback? "You'd better not miss".
Rosen's floor is lowered due to injury/concussions/limited mobility. Mayfield's floor is the highest. Mayfield's cieling is also as high as any of these guys, if you believe that perfect touch and accuracy are more important than throwing 80 yards instead of just 70.
That's an analytical thing, though. It's why Derrick Anderson had one great season and then reverted to permabackup. Derrick had a howitzer arm too! Ooh! Ahh!
Drew Brees was the most accurate quarterback in the NFL in 2017. Who had the strongest arm? I dunno...I guess Big Ben was one, but I don't think any of the other strongest arms made the playoffs, unless Matt Ryan was one.
Brady isn't a big-arm guy, really. Keenum sure as hell wasn't.
...Accuracy and touch are more important than arm-strength, PERIOD...but anyway Mayfield's arm is second only to Allen's in this class (stick a fork in yourself you're done).
Speaking of analytics, Cynthia Frelund wrote a great article on how John Dorsey is using analytics.
This article is a little closer to a Master's Thesis than it is to a sports article (I had to go back and re-read parts of it myself), but she really nails it...mostly.
Her most important point was that analytics is a tool. It was never intended to replace "football guys". The football guys still have to analyze quarterback mechanics, personalities, work ethic, character, dedication, guts etc.
Cindy uses one of my favorite words: "Context".
You can watch all the films you want, but unless you're compiling complex stats at the same time, your human brain will NOT form an objective picture of who you're looking at. You will form "ooh-ahh" fantasies in your mind, and start shrugging off the negative stuff. This is how we are wired by nature, ok? First impressions, right?
Context:
Look at every interception thrown by a guy, and see if there's a pattern:
Deep middle? Deep outside? Pressure? Scrambling? In do-or-die last ditch situations? Deflections? Bad routes? I could go on (and on and on) but you get it, right?
Our brains aren't built to figure this stuff out, especially since our thoughts are influenced by emotions and hormones.
Bill Belichick has always used analytics intuitively. For decades, defensive and offensive coordinators have had "quality control" coaches studying films on upcoming opponents, looking for patterns/weaknesses:
"This guy can't hit the broad side of a barn scrambling to his left". "They haven't figured out how to handle this specific stunt yet". "He doesn't trust anybody deep; he hesitates" that's analytics gdammit!!!
Quality control coach is an entry-level position, partly because aspiring coaches learn to be analytical in this way!!!
Great article. And yes, Dorsey is sneaking into the basement late at night to consult DePodesta.
With all due respect to Brian Billick, I don't get why he doesn't get how Hue Jackson could declare Tyrod Taylor the startng quarterback and the quarterback they draft a benchwarmer.
"If you draft a guy first overall, he's got to come in and make an impact right away."
Ok that must be how "football guys" think. Us analytical guys are willing to stash a first overall pick on the shelf for a season if it's smarter in the long term. Billick was a coach, and not a scout, though, so he spent his carreer thinking short-term/immediate impact in order not to get fired.
Billick is really smart. He won a Superbowl with Trent Dilfer. But he's not objective.
Obviously, Tyrod Taylor is a seasoned veteran, and had a much weaker supporting cast (especially at wide receiver) than he will have here. Obviously, the Browns had 16 mil to spare, and a third round pick, to resolve the starting quarterback issue for 2018.
Obviously, Taylor was massively SAFER than the legendary AJ McCarron, even though he cost 10 mil more and a top third round pick CONTEXT CONTEXT CONTEXT.
Tyrod Taylor is durable, protects the ball, and is a dual threat. Contrary to popular hallucination, he has the arm to run any offense. He played in Buffalo, so he can play in Cleveland.
As you guys know, I liked Case Keenum a lot, but Taylor was a close second.
C O N T E X T: Dorsey had FIVE draft picks (including first and fourth overall) above the one he paid to Buffalo for Taylor. Taylor's 2018 salary is kinda CHEAP for what he can do with this talent in 2018 vs his Bills teams.
His contract expires after this season. Big deal. His job is to win in 2018. If he goes nuts, Dorsey can seek an extention (context):
Tyrod Taylor (like Keenum but unlike the great McCarron) insures (barring injury) that the quarterback Dorsey drafts can remain on the bench for one season. This, in turn, means that Allen and Darnold (the projects) are in play with the more Pro-ready Rosen and Mayfield.
Dorsey just added cornerback EJ Gaines at cornerback. That's an analytics move as well. He's hammered a strong veteran free agent cornerback market, and turned a kinda doomed asset (DeShone Kizer) into a top-notch corner or maybe free safety to upgrade a distressed secondary (inexpensively, and geezers need not apply).
Gaines seems to be better in zone than in man coverage, but Gregg Williams uses both, and moves people around a lot. Gaines' injury history has also clouded his prognosis as a man-corner (more analytical research required). Seems to me my man Thomas Moore recommended Gaines highly a couple weeks ago, and Tom knows his stuff.
Thomas Moore is big on analytics, though, so obviously he can't be right as often as he is, ya know, cuz, like, moneyball like you know...
But I digress: Dorsey has upgraded the Browns secondary significantly (even letting McCourty go for peanuts), and doesn't need to worry about that in this draft.
Terrelle Pryor, after his magical mystery tour, signed with the Jets. Well, McCown is the starter so far, and a third overall quarterback will take over at some point. He has a shot at being the X there (not a chance here) so, money aside, I can't bash him.
Dorsey might not have been as impressed by Pryor as us yokels were, and we need to be objective. For all we know, Dorsey never seriously pursued him.
For all we know, Dorsey might think Corey Coleman isn't washed up yet!!! Todd Haley might think using Njoku and DeValve simultaneously isn't unthinkable!
Oh I forgot: "Hue Jackson's system" (nevermind what HE said about handing the offensive keys over to Haley). And Dorsey is identical to Sashi Brown and Ray Farmer too right?
Sorry I forgot. Same ollddd Brownzzzzz oyeeee
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Baker Mayfield, Defensive Line, and the Cleveland Browns
I'm glad to hear that, in somebody's opinion, Sam Darnold rocked his Pro Day.
It was important that he worked mostly from under center, and certainly throwing in the rain helped him out some.
After listening to Jim Miller critique quarterbacks in Senior Bowl practices and at the Combine, however, I have to take the word of a writer with a grain of salt.
We civilians are oblivious to things like the depth of drop-backs, body language intended to make safeties go the wrong way, and just a bunch of other stuff.
For example, if the quarterback sets up too shallow, and doesn't throw immediately, he's already in trouble. If he sets up too deep, he screws his tackles up by giving edge-rushers an easier angle.
All of these quarterbacks are going to look awesome to amateurs. It doesn't mean a lot.
My opinion won't have anything to do with John Dorsey's ultimate decision at quarterback, but I still prefer Baker Mayfield (Darnold second).
His ball was clocked at 60 mph. That's second only to Josh Allen's freakish 62 mph. The people who questioned his arm just didn't do their homework.
He completed almost 72% of his passes overall, but when PFF isolated his deep passes, those were at over 62% (which is very, very impressive. You are instructed to be impressed now.)
Doesn't matter, does it? He's still short, so you aint listening.
Hue Jackson himself tops his list with accuracy and processing speed, and yet people are discussing the three taller guys as better fits for Jackson's vertical passing offense.
Do you want a guy who can throw it 80 yards, or a guy who completes over 62% on deep passes? Don't you get this? Baker Mayfield is closer to completing 3 out of 4 passes than he is to 2 out of 3. Josh Allen is closer to completing 1 out of 2 than he is to completing 2 out of 3!!!
And what's this Memorex Moron "Jackson's offense" stuff? It's Todd Haley's offense now! Hue Jackson says this stuff himself, and everybody just ignores him! I mean wow, man!
Don't dismiss the Tyrod Taylor factor, either. Tyrod played in Buffalo, and Mayfield can do everything Tyrod did in adverse weather.
If you want NFL comparisons, Sam Darnold is kinda like Big Ben, and Mayfield is kinda like Drew Brees. I know they're both susperstars, but I prefer Brees, as do most experts.
What? "Let's not put Mayfield in the Hall of Fame just yet"? How reflexive and predictable, Captain Obvious.
Mayfield has a stronger arm than Brees, is every bit as accurate, and might be a better athlete.
Allen and Darnold are being coached by Jordan Palmer, because they need coaching. Rosen and Mayfield are already mechanicly sound. They don't have to change anything.
When a guy needs extra coaching, he's got bad habits. He can revert under pressure. Tom Brady overcame his own issues through discipline and diligence, but a lot of quarterbacks don't. Nor is Brady effective at all throwing on the run to this day. Mayfield, however, is a natural. He was just born to play quarterback.
This makes him SAFER than Darnold, let alone Allen! Mayfield doesn't have to set his feet "just so". This is partly because he doesn't have a high center of balance and long limbs.
-Sigh- but he's short. You still prefer Darnold, exclusively because he is taller. Incredible.
Still, I can't help "talking to the hand" some more, in the faint hope of reaching the brain about three feet behind it:
What is "arm talent"?
WRONG! Arm talent means strength, touch, and accuracy. Screw how far you can throw it! Can you throw a frozen rope when you need to, to hit your receiver before the guy covering him can react to his move? Can you drop it over the linebacker and under the safety with a bucket pass (most quarterbacks can't do this consistently; it's very difficult). Do you hit guys in stride? Can you thread a needle?
All of this is arm talent. In this draft, it's not even close: Baker Mayfield is the best arm talent, period. And yeah, that includes Rosen (Don't believe me! Ask the real experts! Mike Mayock, who ranks Mayfield fourth, will tell you the same thing!)
I don't hate Sam Darnold or anything. I think he'll be very successful, and won't have a kniption fit or anything if Dorsey drafts him, but Baker Mayfield is better. Remember I told you this.
While I'm at it, Rosen should do great as well (if he can stay healthy and conscious), and Josh Allen...I'm not sure. Cieling Superstar, floor "pretty good".
Mayfield is the best bet here. Once you extract your head, you will see this: Accuracy and arm talent are far more important than physical stature in the AFC North or anywhere else.
Aaron Rodgers is 6'15/8ths and runs the Green Bay Packers. He's one inch taller than Mayfield get over it, for cryin out loud!
Just mark my words. You'll see.
Since I looked over the Dorsey-adjusted secondary in my last post, I'll do linebackers in this one:
They're fine.
...ok well I guess I gotta do the defensive line:
I'll separate this: Defensive tackle is really stacked with Ogunjobi, Brantley, Coley, Meder and a couple other guys.
With the trade of Danny Shelton, I got excited by the implications. Meder is an outlier, and he resembles Bob Golic (the "human fire hydrant", as he described himself). An elite wrestler in highschool and college, the undersized/short Golic used leverage to do a great job at nose tackle in Marty's 3-4 defense.
I've come to realize that Meder is actually better than Shelton in a similar two-gap role here.
Ogunjobi, Brantley, and Coley can all two-gap, but are at their best lined up between offensive linemen and exploding through them for penetration. By the way, Sashi Brown found these guys, and they're real football players. And he didn't draft Shelton, either...just sayin.
Anyway, Meder is a run-down specialist here now. I think Gregg Williams will now be "sending" both defensive tackles on neutral and passing downs.
That's dangerous, because it opens up cutback lanes, but it is disruptive. Your Danny Shelton would try to collapse a pocket by powering through a double-team, but these new Sashi Brown guys don't do that. They're quick-twitch, first-step, explosive guys, and will predominate the rotation in 2018.
I like this a lot, because I believe in playing in the offense's backfield as much as possible (just my opinion).
Anyway, these four defensive tackles are all pretty damn good. Meder aside, Coley (swiped from the Ravens) is the most experienced, as he enters his third NFL season.
This is not the greatest defensive tackle group in the history of the NFL. I never said that. But it is, most certainly, above average (more like in the top third). So it's pretty good DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Honestly, how can fans of an 0-16 team set the bar so impossibly high? I don't get it.
Anyway, defensive end is okay. Is it ok for me to put a check mark next to Myles Garrett? Whew thank you! Ogbah did not get double-digit sacks while healthy, ergo sucks NOT.
Actually, defensive end is pretty good, but Garrett and Ogbah have been the only consistent passrushers. All of them play the run well; they're real football players (and Dorsey knows it), but the edge-rush does need an upgrade.
The Garrett-Ogbah combo actually works well, but with either of them on the bench, it all but disappears. Still, if you don't fixate on the edge-rush, this is a good group of players (even though Sashi Brown drafted most of them haha).
In my last post, I started pounding the drum for Bradley Chubb (over Barkley and Fitzpatrick). He'd default Ogbah to a backup/rotational role instantly, thus upgrading the edge-rush and depth at the same time.
This combo would rival Clowney and Watt. Watt and Clowney have traded injuries, plus Clowney (physically a lot like Garrett btw) developed slowly. I know those of you in Myopia and Oblivia don't get this reference yet, but you will when these two play together in 2018. Remember I said this.
I had to refer to the Texans here because they're the only comparison I could find among the 32 teams. I'm sorry if you are devoid of imagination and can't grasp it, but the Cliff Notes version is two top five edge-rushers on the same team at the same time okay? Chubb and Garrett would match Clowney and Watt, and no other team in the NFL even comes close.
There's a chain reaction effect here (if the Browns draft Chubb) too:
Offensive linemen can't double-team both of these guys, and both of them can stunt, which blows tight end chip blocks to hell. Whenever they throw the ball, offenses have to focus on these two edge-rushers. They simply can not double up on either of the defensive tackles, and (look back a few paragraphs) the Browns defensive tackles are too explosive for guards and centers.
A Chubb/Garrett(Ogbah) rotation at DE would free up the aforementioned inside one-gap defensive tackles, and more often than not eliminate a tight end as a receiver. (Chubb, Ogbah, and Garrett are too quick and powerful for chip-blocks to work consistently on them. They'll often have outside leverage already, and the tight end has no leverage at all nevermind I don't want any head-explosions (or comas) here...
Let's just say that Bradley Chubb could make this the best defensive line in the NFL.
This one player could also make the 2018 Browns defense one of the best in the NFL. Try to stay with me here:
Gregg Williams wouldn't have to blitze nearly as often. He could keep seven players in coverage (and positioned to stop runs) more. He could "send" both his defensive tackles (instead of having one try to get double-teamed and eat up an extra blocker and cause a traffic jam).
In general, obviously the enemy quarterback doesn't have time, or a pocket, and has to scramble. A running back might burn them (remember the "angel" in my last post by the way?), but more often is hit in the backfield.
Gregg Williams isn't much different from Bud Carson. Bud Carson was one of the best defensive coordinators in history, and should be in the Hall of Fame.
Bud was a 4-3 guy who attacked at all times. With the Browns, David Grayson was his linebacker/safety hybrid; the resemblance between Carson and Williams is uncanny.
Most of you really don't get this: Bud/Gregg think it's better to attack than to react. You trade running backs stuffed for two yard losses, sacks, rushed throws for incompletions and interceptions, forced fumbles etc for 20-yard runs and occasional long bombs.
Bud Carson came out on top throughout his career, and so has Williams so far.
Bud never had a Garrett, let alone a Garrett and Chubb.
Back to Darnold: I have now actually seen some of his Pro Day antics. In my amatuer opinion, his drops looked right, and he did make some throws on the run (I forgot: Like Mayfield, Darnold can throw accurately while running for his life; he doesn't need to stop and re-plant his feet like Rosen and Allen).
Of course, Baker Mayfield will look great too, and is still the best quarterback in this draft, period.
I HAVE SPOKEN
It was important that he worked mostly from under center, and certainly throwing in the rain helped him out some.
After listening to Jim Miller critique quarterbacks in Senior Bowl practices and at the Combine, however, I have to take the word of a writer with a grain of salt.
We civilians are oblivious to things like the depth of drop-backs, body language intended to make safeties go the wrong way, and just a bunch of other stuff.
For example, if the quarterback sets up too shallow, and doesn't throw immediately, he's already in trouble. If he sets up too deep, he screws his tackles up by giving edge-rushers an easier angle.
All of these quarterbacks are going to look awesome to amateurs. It doesn't mean a lot.
My opinion won't have anything to do with John Dorsey's ultimate decision at quarterback, but I still prefer Baker Mayfield (Darnold second).
His ball was clocked at 60 mph. That's second only to Josh Allen's freakish 62 mph. The people who questioned his arm just didn't do their homework.
He completed almost 72% of his passes overall, but when PFF isolated his deep passes, those were at over 62% (which is very, very impressive. You are instructed to be impressed now.)
Doesn't matter, does it? He's still short, so you aint listening.
Hue Jackson himself tops his list with accuracy and processing speed, and yet people are discussing the three taller guys as better fits for Jackson's vertical passing offense.
Do you want a guy who can throw it 80 yards, or a guy who completes over 62% on deep passes? Don't you get this? Baker Mayfield is closer to completing 3 out of 4 passes than he is to 2 out of 3. Josh Allen is closer to completing 1 out of 2 than he is to completing 2 out of 3!!!
And what's this Memorex Moron "Jackson's offense" stuff? It's Todd Haley's offense now! Hue Jackson says this stuff himself, and everybody just ignores him! I mean wow, man!
Don't dismiss the Tyrod Taylor factor, either. Tyrod played in Buffalo, and Mayfield can do everything Tyrod did in adverse weather.
If you want NFL comparisons, Sam Darnold is kinda like Big Ben, and Mayfield is kinda like Drew Brees. I know they're both susperstars, but I prefer Brees, as do most experts.
What? "Let's not put Mayfield in the Hall of Fame just yet"? How reflexive and predictable, Captain Obvious.
Mayfield has a stronger arm than Brees, is every bit as accurate, and might be a better athlete.
Allen and Darnold are being coached by Jordan Palmer, because they need coaching. Rosen and Mayfield are already mechanicly sound. They don't have to change anything.
When a guy needs extra coaching, he's got bad habits. He can revert under pressure. Tom Brady overcame his own issues through discipline and diligence, but a lot of quarterbacks don't. Nor is Brady effective at all throwing on the run to this day. Mayfield, however, is a natural. He was just born to play quarterback.
This makes him SAFER than Darnold, let alone Allen! Mayfield doesn't have to set his feet "just so". This is partly because he doesn't have a high center of balance and long limbs.
-Sigh- but he's short. You still prefer Darnold, exclusively because he is taller. Incredible.
Still, I can't help "talking to the hand" some more, in the faint hope of reaching the brain about three feet behind it:
What is "arm talent"?
WRONG! Arm talent means strength, touch, and accuracy. Screw how far you can throw it! Can you throw a frozen rope when you need to, to hit your receiver before the guy covering him can react to his move? Can you drop it over the linebacker and under the safety with a bucket pass (most quarterbacks can't do this consistently; it's very difficult). Do you hit guys in stride? Can you thread a needle?
All of this is arm talent. In this draft, it's not even close: Baker Mayfield is the best arm talent, period. And yeah, that includes Rosen (Don't believe me! Ask the real experts! Mike Mayock, who ranks Mayfield fourth, will tell you the same thing!)
I don't hate Sam Darnold or anything. I think he'll be very successful, and won't have a kniption fit or anything if Dorsey drafts him, but Baker Mayfield is better. Remember I told you this.
While I'm at it, Rosen should do great as well (if he can stay healthy and conscious), and Josh Allen...I'm not sure. Cieling Superstar, floor "pretty good".
Mayfield is the best bet here. Once you extract your head, you will see this: Accuracy and arm talent are far more important than physical stature in the AFC North or anywhere else.
Aaron Rodgers is 6'15/8ths and runs the Green Bay Packers. He's one inch taller than Mayfield get over it, for cryin out loud!
Just mark my words. You'll see.
Since I looked over the Dorsey-adjusted secondary in my last post, I'll do linebackers in this one:
They're fine.
...ok well I guess I gotta do the defensive line:
I'll separate this: Defensive tackle is really stacked with Ogunjobi, Brantley, Coley, Meder and a couple other guys.
With the trade of Danny Shelton, I got excited by the implications. Meder is an outlier, and he resembles Bob Golic (the "human fire hydrant", as he described himself). An elite wrestler in highschool and college, the undersized/short Golic used leverage to do a great job at nose tackle in Marty's 3-4 defense.
I've come to realize that Meder is actually better than Shelton in a similar two-gap role here.
Ogunjobi, Brantley, and Coley can all two-gap, but are at their best lined up between offensive linemen and exploding through them for penetration. By the way, Sashi Brown found these guys, and they're real football players. And he didn't draft Shelton, either...just sayin.
Anyway, Meder is a run-down specialist here now. I think Gregg Williams will now be "sending" both defensive tackles on neutral and passing downs.
That's dangerous, because it opens up cutback lanes, but it is disruptive. Your Danny Shelton would try to collapse a pocket by powering through a double-team, but these new Sashi Brown guys don't do that. They're quick-twitch, first-step, explosive guys, and will predominate the rotation in 2018.
I like this a lot, because I believe in playing in the offense's backfield as much as possible (just my opinion).
Anyway, these four defensive tackles are all pretty damn good. Meder aside, Coley (swiped from the Ravens) is the most experienced, as he enters his third NFL season.
This is not the greatest defensive tackle group in the history of the NFL. I never said that. But it is, most certainly, above average (more like in the top third). So it's pretty good DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Honestly, how can fans of an 0-16 team set the bar so impossibly high? I don't get it.
Anyway, defensive end is okay. Is it ok for me to put a check mark next to Myles Garrett? Whew thank you! Ogbah did not get double-digit sacks while healthy, ergo sucks NOT.
Actually, defensive end is pretty good, but Garrett and Ogbah have been the only consistent passrushers. All of them play the run well; they're real football players (and Dorsey knows it), but the edge-rush does need an upgrade.
The Garrett-Ogbah combo actually works well, but with either of them on the bench, it all but disappears. Still, if you don't fixate on the edge-rush, this is a good group of players (even though Sashi Brown drafted most of them haha).
In my last post, I started pounding the drum for Bradley Chubb (over Barkley and Fitzpatrick). He'd default Ogbah to a backup/rotational role instantly, thus upgrading the edge-rush and depth at the same time.
This combo would rival Clowney and Watt. Watt and Clowney have traded injuries, plus Clowney (physically a lot like Garrett btw) developed slowly. I know those of you in Myopia and Oblivia don't get this reference yet, but you will when these two play together in 2018. Remember I said this.
I had to refer to the Texans here because they're the only comparison I could find among the 32 teams. I'm sorry if you are devoid of imagination and can't grasp it, but the Cliff Notes version is two top five edge-rushers on the same team at the same time okay? Chubb and Garrett would match Clowney and Watt, and no other team in the NFL even comes close.
There's a chain reaction effect here (if the Browns draft Chubb) too:
Offensive linemen can't double-team both of these guys, and both of them can stunt, which blows tight end chip blocks to hell. Whenever they throw the ball, offenses have to focus on these two edge-rushers. They simply can not double up on either of the defensive tackles, and (look back a few paragraphs) the Browns defensive tackles are too explosive for guards and centers.
A Chubb/Garrett(Ogbah) rotation at DE would free up the aforementioned inside one-gap defensive tackles, and more often than not eliminate a tight end as a receiver. (Chubb, Ogbah, and Garrett are too quick and powerful for chip-blocks to work consistently on them. They'll often have outside leverage already, and the tight end has no leverage at all nevermind I don't want any head-explosions (or comas) here...
Let's just say that Bradley Chubb could make this the best defensive line in the NFL.
This one player could also make the 2018 Browns defense one of the best in the NFL. Try to stay with me here:
Gregg Williams wouldn't have to blitze nearly as often. He could keep seven players in coverage (and positioned to stop runs) more. He could "send" both his defensive tackles (instead of having one try to get double-teamed and eat up an extra blocker and cause a traffic jam).
In general, obviously the enemy quarterback doesn't have time, or a pocket, and has to scramble. A running back might burn them (remember the "angel" in my last post by the way?), but more often is hit in the backfield.
Gregg Williams isn't much different from Bud Carson. Bud Carson was one of the best defensive coordinators in history, and should be in the Hall of Fame.
Bud was a 4-3 guy who attacked at all times. With the Browns, David Grayson was his linebacker/safety hybrid; the resemblance between Carson and Williams is uncanny.
Most of you really don't get this: Bud/Gregg think it's better to attack than to react. You trade running backs stuffed for two yard losses, sacks, rushed throws for incompletions and interceptions, forced fumbles etc for 20-yard runs and occasional long bombs.
Bud Carson came out on top throughout his career, and so has Williams so far.
Bud never had a Garrett, let alone a Garrett and Chubb.
Back to Darnold: I have now actually seen some of his Pro Day antics. In my amatuer opinion, his drops looked right, and he did make some throws on the run (I forgot: Like Mayfield, Darnold can throw accurately while running for his life; he doesn't need to stop and re-plant his feet like Rosen and Allen).
Of course, Baker Mayfield will look great too, and is still the best quarterback in this draft, period.
I HAVE SPOKEN
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)