Saturday, May 27, 2017

Cleveland Browns: Stop the Inanity!

1: Yes, Des Bryant is probably going to get cut.  Obviously.

2: It just now dawned on you that Nate Orchard would return to defensive end under Gregg Williams?  Wow that's amazing!  Who wooda thunk it?

Peter Smith thinks he's probably not long for this team, which is, in reality, overloaded with edge-rushers.  Peter cites analytics most heavily here, as the other guys (notably Tyrone Holmes) out-test him.

We'll see, because in my brief glimpse of Nate Orchard, I saw a real NFL football player--at linebacker.  Pete might well be right, but I think Orchard has an outside shot because Gregg Williams will have a voice, the Browns should carry eight defensive linemen and six linebackers, and Orchard is BOTH.

3: Austin Pazstor (sp?) was a better right tackle than Shon Coleman would have been.  Coleman wasn't fully recovered from a knee injury, was switching from left to right tackle, and had a bunch of mechanical flaws.

3a: Pazstor held his own in pass protection.  Most of the pressure on Browns quarterbacks came from inside, because Bitonio and Greco both went down, and Erving failed at center.

3b: Browns quarterbacks were sacked the most in the NFL, but I guarantee you they also ranked at or near the top in NOT GETTING RID OF THE DAMN BALL as well (bet it's over 4.3 seconds per-attempt)

4: Pluto is right about Osweiler.  If they can't trade him, he's probably making the final roster. Kessler is the best quarterback statistically, and on film too, and should start.

Don't get all mystical about the wins and losses stuff here.  Don't ignore context.  Don't try telling me that Osweiler elevated the play of teammates, or "willed" them to victory.  The film and the stats say Kessler is the better quarterback.

However, Osweiler has real talent, and should at least be a solid backup in a system similar to the one he had in Denver.

5: The Browns will not sign any old geezers to knock any young players off the roster.  Especially not quarterbacks or wide receivers.

The probable two tight end (and some two-back) offense aside, I'm warming up to Ricardo Louis here.  

Louis dropped a bunch of passes in college, which is why I thought they might try him at safety, but he caught just fine in 2016, and he's got the whole tool-chest.

One real expert compared him to Des Bryant.  Nah!  He's much faster than Bryant is.

...ok seriously Bryant is awesome and the hell with 40 times, and obviously Louis could still crap out and stuff, but this is the upside we're looking at here.

Wow the Browns DO need wide receivers!  I mean none of the current ones are microbes, and the top 3 are all home run hitters!  Even the bottom two can go deep!  

The Browns desperately need a microbe and some big guys who can't go deep!  Oh yeah and some old geezer to show Kenny Britt and company the ropes!

While I'm at it, the 2017 Browns only have one tight end who can block but not catch very well, so they need to fill that glaring need immediately!

And the NFL needs to increase the rosters to 70 and get rid of the salary cap.  This is a glaring need.

Sorry I was gone for awhile but I'm back now.  I'm ready.  Shoot me.


Thursday, May 25, 2017

Cleveland Browns Derangement Syndrome

Hey, Mary Kay!  Why do you keep talking about Hue Jackson's offense as if it's a vertical/deep scheme?  Because Dalton went deep to Green sometimes?  You get your info from weekly highlights or something?

And what's this crap about Kessler's arm?  Oh yeah Hue Jackson publicly criticized him for not going deep enough last season.  You never asked yourself why he would do that, did you?

Why would he ask a quarterback to go deep if he didn't know he COULD go deep?  Is he just a bully, who likes humiliating guys with weak arms?  Or is he just a dumbass who doesn't know any better?

Look at Kessler's college scouting reports.  His arm is described as "adequate", "average", and occasionally "above average".  Hardly anybody said "below average".  Are they all clueless too?

Maybe, just maybe, Hue publicly said he wished Kessler would throw deep more to get him to throw deep more.  Wait--think about that, Mary Kay.

He wasn't talking to Kessler's arm.  He was talking to Kessler.  Why would he do that?

Is it starting to dawn on you yet?  Sigh...ok it's because Kessler was gunshy and didn't trust his receivers.  He wouldn't pull the trigger on time (before the receiver turned to look at him) because he was afraid the reciever wouldn't do what he was supposed to do.

It had nothing to do with his arm, and everything to do with fear and hesitation.  This is why Hue was on the kid.  

Now quit talking about Cody Kessler's arm as if Hue Jackson cares more about that than quick decisions and accuracy.  And quit talking about a coach who runs more West Coast than anything else as if he's a mad bomber.  And tell Terry and Tony to get their heads out too.

Here is some cognitively disonant Memorex Moron stuff from Bruce Murray and Maurice Jones-Drew on NFL Radio (Note: I respect Maurice and Ross Tucker a lot, but both are guilty of cognitive disonance sometimes, perhaps due to concussions):

Ask Maurice about the following players, and see what he would say:

Corey Coleman: Slot receiver quickness and speed in a wide receiver body.  Had to learn whole route tree as a rookie.  Should be lethal once he knows what he's doing.  Home run hitter.

Kenny Britt: Solid big fast veteran.  Good after the catch.  Legit deep threat.  Big target, good player.

Isaiah Crowell:  Very good running back.  Has really improved as a receiver.  Broke more tackles last year, seems stronger.  Better in zone blocking scheme.

Duke Johnson: Solid player, can play wide receiver.  Good player.

Seth DeValve: Mismatch guy.  Big wide receiver playing tight end.  Good hands, gets open.  Can get deep.  Good player.

Njoku: Can do everything OJ Howard does.  Really dangerous big play tight end.  Decent blocker, but needs work on that

That's six skill players.  In most cases, I've actually heard Maurice say these things about them.

So why does he say that if you want a quarterback to succeed, you've got to get him some help, and "it seems to me", the Browns haven't done that?  

The clinical term for this condition is "Browns Derangement Syndrome" ("BDS").  BDS sufferers are universally cognitively disonant.  

You see, the Browns have sucked for so long, it's imprinted, much like muscle memory, on the brain.  This is how guys like Ross and Maurice contradict themselves, without ever becoming aware of the contadiction. 

BDS is impervious to logic or reason.  Any argument against this pathology is regarded as "homerism", and through rationalization and self-deception dismissed as ingnorant and childish, without coscious thought.

A BDS sufferer could read the first part of this article, including the cognitive disonance part, without reconsidering their previous statements.

That's how bad it is.

Since the 2×4 treatment is now illegal, the only cure is winning.  The Browns don't need to win a lot of games.  Just a few.

Sentient BDS sufferers like Drew and Tucker will then review their entrenched pathologies, and resume conscious thought.

But Jeez...Bruce Murray took this to the wall:  He went into saying that most teams come up with at least one "helper" for a quarterback, whether it's a running back, tight end, or wide receiver, and excluded the Browns as an "outlier".

Ok so now Njoku, Coleman, Crowell etc all SUCK, OK?  I expected MJD to correct him, but he just agreed.

It's worse than I thought.  Maybe I shouldn't be surprised.  Half of America is clinicly insane.  Insane people don't know they're insane. The smarter ones are worse, because they think nobody else "gets it", and won't listen to reason.

Local BDS victims are worse yet, because they have been exposed to local media, and tend to be more attentive to team news.  While many have realized that things are changing (I never said the Browns fan base was mentally impaired), the hold-outs are worse than ever.

No Browns quarterback has a chance, because the offensive line sucks so bad, and he'll have nobody to throw to, and no running game.  Joe Haden is washed up.  Kessler has a "noodle" arm, and can't read defenses.  Kizer and Peppers were wasted picks.  Kenny Britt sucks.  So do both Colemans.  

Joe Thomas needs to shut up.  So does Terry Pluto.  Garrett will be a bust.  Same old Browns.  We're all gonna die.

Wow.  Just...wow.






Monday, May 22, 2017

The Browns Secondary, Gregg Williams, and What it Means

So, the Browns current front office is ranked fourth in the NFL.  The popping sounds you are hearing are heads coming out of butts nationwide.

You will probably not hear that sound from Buzz-Kill Bill Polian, who never met a "moneyball" move he didn't hate.

Oh yes, did you know that having more draft picks does NOT increase your odds of succeeding in the draft?  It's true, and Bill insists he can prove it!

Well, Bill built two awesome teams, and deserved his Hall of Fame induction, but insane is insane.  That hypothesis does not pass go.  It warrants no further comment.

Two is better than one, Bill.  Every single time.

Anyway I'm glad that at least the National guys are giving Sashi, Paul, and Andrew some props.  Remember this next time Grossi says they're on the hot seat, or this or that fifth round pick "disappointed" as a R O O K I E.

Now that the latest news is in: DB Jason McCourty is on board, and Howard Wilson should be available later this season after all; let's prognostificationalize the 2017 secondary:

A bunch of people immediately predicted that McCourty would displace Jamar Taylor at cornerback.  This is stupid, because Taylor ranked among the best cornerbacks in the NFL last season.

There is also no rational reason to write  28 year old Joe Haden off, simply because he played most of last season with groin injuries on both sides.

As Peter Smith pointed out, Taylor did play well in the slot, but with all due respect to Pete, he played just as well outside.

Brien Boddy-Calhoun is the microbe to beat in the nickel this season.  It seems like there are always tons of smurf corners in every undrafted class, and that Sashi and company always scoop them up.

If anybody at all beats Calhoun out, he will be awesome, because Calhoun was terrific as a rookie.

Seriously, although McCourty should be an upper-echelon cornerback once he has recovered from his own groin issues, the most likely starters at cornerback in 2017 remain Taylor and Haden.

McCourty took a really cheap two-year deal to sign with the lowly Browns.  He's being paid like a backup, which is one reason why this signing was an excellent one.  He can play most positions in a Gregg Williams secondary (all except strong safety).

That's what makes the free safety contest even more interesting.  Jason's twin brother, Devin, is an elite free safety with the New England Patriots...

Ok I'm not sure about that, since Bill usually runs a cover two defense.  I don't know why to this day nobody in Cleveland seems to understand the difference.

Most likely, ignorant people are calling Devin a "free safety" simply because the other guy outweighs him.

Still, a bigger cornerback who is smart and can tackle is a good candidate for free safety here.

Gregg Williams, per all his former players, plays no favorites.  His best players will start, at each position, period.

The free safety position is wide open, and McCourty will be a top contender.

Gregg will have the coverage part covered with this group of contenders, and that's the top priority.  A close second is tackling, and that's what will decide the winner here.

My own favorite before J McCourty signing was Kai Nacua, who is an interception machine with adequate height and nice speed, and who is an experienced center-fielder.

Kai has a nasty attitude and likes to hit people, but I've read some reports about taking poor angles vs the run and stuff.  I'm not sure about that, as I've seen contradictory reports.

He's still my favorite, since he's the younger, bigger guy.

Then there's McCourty, of course, and after that Tyvis Powell.

Powell has everybody except Nacua beat physically.  He's 6'2", 211 lbs.  He is faster, but less agile than the 6', 205 lb Nacua, and he started for Ohio State (at free safety).

His biggest problem is that he hasn't generated turnovers.  He's got experience in perhaps the best secondary in the NFL (the Seahawks), and is very much "in" this race.

Now, I don't want to pick on anybody here, but Derrick Kindred is not a serious contender for this slot.  Ibraheim Campbell is taller and faster, and has an outside shot entering his third season.

There are two more undrafted contenders, including another interception machine, but I can't list them all, and have to use poor combine numbers as my final filter.

I've been wrong a lot, so these guys shouldn't be dismissed.  But if one of them can take the free safety trophy away from the aforementioned crew, they'll be pretty damn good.

Williams has strong safety (and linebacker/safety hybrid) covered in spades.

Jabrill Peppers is the obvious one, but Rodney Kindredfield is right behind him, along with Rodney Campbellfield.

The Dangerfields are fully qualified strong safeties.  They played in a two-deep system last season, and have yet to actually get to play at strong safety in the NFL.  

That's what they do best.  Gregg Williams, if he does stick to his ideal one or three-deep scheme, will give these two a much better "fit".  And they are both being massively underrated.

In reality, as I've redundated a lot, the real base defense will be a nickel.

For the 2017 Browns, this most likely means (technically speaking) a 4-2, to keep Kirksey and Collins on the field.

Calhoun is one guy who will come and go, depending on the opposing offense.  If they use a microbe slot guy, he's there.  If it's a big guy (that's the trend btw), he's not the "fifth" DB.

The real base secondary should feature Taylor and Haden at cornerback, Peppers at "strong safety", the winner of the Sweepstakes at free safety, and "somebody else".

The somebody else could be a strong safety, or...well I just don't know.  What I do know is that if somebody emerges out of this free safety race as a pretty good player, Gregg has everything else thoroughly covered.  

We can now factor in Howard Wilson later this season.  This is a very good outside cornerback with free safety potential (eventually).  

Wilson is not an explosive athlete, but is really smart and has great instincts and ball skills.  He is vulnerable in press/man coverage because he can't catch up well, but is excellent in off-man or zone, and here again, Gregg Williams has a place for him.  Gregg Williams does not rely on press coverage.

Howard is 6'1", 188 lbs as of the combine, but should weigh over 191 lbs by the time he shows up (and over 196 by 2018).

With all undue respect to clueless pundits, the Browns secondary is solid and very deep, with the possible exception of free safety (I said possible gdammit can't you read English?)

They're extremely talented and deep strong safety, reasonably strong and very deep at cornerback, and will be at least very deep at free safety.

The secondary looks really good for 2017 if Gregg goes 1-3 deep, but better if he shocks YOU and goes 2-deep...which he has, and can, and might, fy clueless i.

Still, the recent signings and current roster speak to a concerted attempt to land a true center-fielder, and the probable success of said attempt.

Gregg really wants to use his Buddy Ryan defense, and has inherited ideal front 7 people to make it work.  

Pray for a free safety, because if he gets one, the 2017 Browns defense could be shockingly good.

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Cleveland Browns Probable 2017 Offense

Hue Jackson has historically adapted his offensive schemes to his personnel (and specific opposing defenses).  Everybody who talks about the types of players Hue likes best, or his favorite schemes, is guessing.

Hue never had more than a minor voice in choosing which players he was given to work with, so these pundits are basing these Olympic Calibre conclusion-leaps on how he made the most of what he had.

Since he's become a Head Coach again, now we can start making educated guesses about what he's up to.  Not until now has he had a strong voice in which players are targeted and signed.

And which offensive players were those?

We can skip Kizer and Kessler, who are quarterbacks (except hmm...both their names start with "K"...)

Corey Coleman was the first.  He's a super-quick, super-fast 6' muscular athlete who was very raw, but can play any wide receiver slot (or running back for that matter).

This is without question a "playmaker", selected more for his physical talent than for his production in college, or prospects as a rookie.

More specifically, while he certainly is a deep threat, he's more dangerous short and intermediate.  He can catch a quarterback-friendly short or intermediate pass, and take it to the house.

And this is how he is best used.  You have a big/tall fast guy for the deep stuff, and use Coleman more underneath.

Then there were three more wide receivers, all of which were big and tall.  Two were possession types, but Ricardo Louis is unusually fast and athletic, so he goes in the deep threat category.

Then two offensive linemen: Drango and Coleman.  Coleman needs little work as a run blocker.  Drango is a blue collar guy who can play several positions.

Then there was TE Seth DeValve, a converted wide receiver who (I thought) would never be an in-line blocker.

Based on the 2016 draft, you couldn't be blamed for expecting a lot of 3 and 4-wide spreads, with a lot of inside runs.

To my credit (blush-blush) I expected at least some two-back and two-tight end stuff, and also said "they're making sure wide receiver is covered."

Ok skip the defensive moves, and add to the database the offensive acquisitions since:

Njoku was generally considered the number two tight end prospect in this draft.  He is a capable in-line blocker, as well as being very much like OJ Howard as a receiver.  He averaged around 2 more yards after first contact than Howard too.  He might end up being better than Howard.

I thought he'd back up Gary Barnidge, but Sashi released Gary almost instantly.

Left tackle Roderick Johnson was the only other significant offensive player (no offense to Mays) drafted.

As I've mentioned before, Seth DeValve returning at 260 lbs may have greased the skids for Gary's departure.  T J Holtz has some real upside, and Randall Telfer is a very good blocker who can catch short ones ok.

I can see how smart people could punch holes in this theory, but I think Hue wants to run a two-tight end offense a lot; maybe even as a base.

This is partly because they drafted DeValve last season.  If you recall (or look at my posts back then), I sort of ranked DeValve right behind Coleman as a pure receiver, and expected him to play a lot as a rookie; I was talking two-tight end back then, too.

I now believe that Hue will run a two tight end offense a lot based on more recent moves.

One of these was not paying Terrelle Pryor (a move I still think was stupid).  In essentially replacing Pryor with Kenny Britt, they told me that Hue Jackson doesn't regard that skyscraper deep threat as critical (which in turn told me that he is not a copycat).

Njoku was the more obvious indicator.  In the new/improved DeValve and Njoku, he now has two young studs who will grow into foundational players, and only enter their respective primes in 2018.

Don't sleep on Holtz, and Telfer has earned his place here.

That was analytics.  The X's and O's are more compelling:

Britt, Coleman, DeValve, Njoku, and either running back make it hard on modern defenses (mainly because both tight ends can block in-line, as well as lead-block, go in motion, set up wide etc).

This personnel grouping is a run-set, and normally forces a base defense.  Hue wants to do this, so he can keep today's "specialized" players off the field, and wear the bigger guys down.

Of course, modern defenses have kept pace with modern offenses, and defensive coordinators aren't mentally impaired, so they'll know exactly what Hue is up to, and some will come up with answers.

But most defenses are prioritizing the 3-wide, with a little waterbug slot guy, and not a two-tight end offense.

Only Lord Insideous has fielded two REAL dual-threat tight ends on the field at the same time.  Other two-tight end offenses have one scary receiver and one blocker.  You can't be drafting players to stop 1/32nd of the league, see?

Some defenses will try a "big nickel", but generally here's the deal:

The Browns now have an elite offensive line, and averaged almost 5 yards per carry in 2016 with both starting guards out, and a crappy center.

Opposing defenses HAVE TO prioritize stopping the run, at least early, especially since both tight ends are real tight ends who can actually block.

For most defenses (note: not for the 2017 Browns defense), this does force a 3-4 or 4-3 base defense, longer on power and shorter on speed.

Still with me?  Ok so already the opposing defense can't match up.  No, they can't.

With this personnel grouping, the Browns could deploy in empty backfield (a de facto 5-wide), 4-wide, 3-wide, a conventional set, a 21 (two-back) set with a "tight end" as a lead-blocker.

Aside from the running back and Coleman, every receiver is big/strong with a big catch radius (margin of error) who gets "open" early (and Coleman or the running back fit this last spec btw).

I would expect Hue to send Britt postal on every snap in this set, daring the free safety to ignore him (btw I watched Kessler's college tapes.  If you think he can't throw a low-trajectory pass 53 yards downfield, you need to stop taking Tony Grossi so literally).

You need to set aside labels here:  NJoku averaged over 17 yards per catch at the highest level of competition.  Seth DeValve isn't the freak he is, but could get close...

Sorry but I look at everything, and have to mention this:  DeValve is shorter than Njoku, and now outweighs him by 12-15 lbs.

He will be stronger, and have better leverage.  He could be even better as a blocker, and start running little guys over!  I'm pretty sure he intends to.

Coleman and Njoku are lethal short targets.  Two tight ends blocking for the run, in conjunction with the revamped offensive line is scary.  

Bubble screens, screens, chips, neutralized edge-rushes, etc...very quarterback-freindly; elite talent not mandatory.

I'll email Hue again to make sure he sees it, as soon as I figure out this "message was undeliverable" technical glitch...





Friday, May 19, 2017

Chris Barker, Zone Blocking, and the Cleveland Browns

The Browns are never satisfied.  That's a good thing.  They just signed offensive lineman Chris Barker (waived by Lord Insideous), and waived DT Gave Wright.

Interesting!  The Browns have now signed FIVE new offensive linemen, and four of them are inside guys.  What does this mean?

Well, I'm not sure.  Center was obviously a problem last season, and they kind of went nuts making sure they got it covered by adding Tretter and another journeyman to go with the two young guys already on the roster.

The lower-end and free agent signings don't mean as much as most people think.  They are experiments who can be released at any time without consequence.

It definitely means something to John Greco, however, because he is over 30 and has now suffered a bad injury.

No, they don't want to get rid of him--he's still a really solid, versatile player (ahem: with trade value), but he is not a part of the future.

Sashi is just churning the roster here.  He's nabbing every player he can who could develop into something.

Chris Barker is quick and athletic, like both the rookies who played center last season.  He is an ideal zone player.  Damn I keep seeing a pattern here...

Barker is only 6'2", which is good for leverage and quickness, but bad for reach.  I used his pre-draft scouting report, which is now obsolete.

He was signed undrafted by the Fins, and then released.  I suspect that they wanted to stash him on their practice squad, but Lord Insideous headed them off at the pass.

Chris Barker survived on the Patriots roster until now, and no doubt learned and grew somewhat.

I believe he could play center.  He has played both left and right guard. It's unlikely that the Browns could stash him on the practice squad now, because somebody else would nab him.

If you check that scouting report, Chris Barker was expected to be drafted in the middle rounds.  He's now been groomed by the Patriots, who held onto him for awhile, so he's no joke, and has a good shot at making the final roster.

The pattern I mentioned is clear: every one of the five offensive linemen the Browns signed this off season, is well-suited to a zone-blocking scheme.  So were both of last season's rookie centers.

Sorry to redundate here, but Isaiah Crowell was never more productive than he was under Kyle Shanahan, who ran his father's zone-blocking scheme.

Zone blockers can be smaller than road-graders, which makes them "cheaper" overall.  This, in turn, makes it "analytically" smart to run this scheme.

You can have a strong run-blocking offensive line at a 20% or so discount by running it.

For all this gossip-mongering over a geek vs coach "divide", Hue Jackson has a working brain.  I now expect the 2017 Browns to run a lot of zone blocking.

It's way past critical mass, because Tretter is better in zone than in man, and the second tier of the roster is overloaded with zone blockers.

However, the beauty of this is that with Zeitler, Bitonio, Coleman, and (per PFF) Thomas, the expected starters can run man just as well.

Both guards can pull, or can drive defensive linemen back with leverage and power.

I've got to say, this looks brilliant.  

I must redundate here again: The offensive coordinator, let alone Head Coach, isn't all that interested in the nuts and bolts of the running game.  This is why the best offensive line coaches get fired less often than any other assistant coaches.

People like Tony Grossi et al expected Hue Jackson to man-block because he had in the past, but it most likely wasn't even his preference or decision.

Running the ball is pretty basic, ok?  The diabolical insidious stuff is all in the passing game.  If a Head Coach micromanages his line coach, he is a dumbass who will get fired.

Hue has probably already told his assistants, "Get me 4.4 yards per carry.  Get me tough third down conversions", period.

The 2017 Browns should run a zone/power mix.  More of one or the other, depending on the specific defense.

These assistant coaches aren't drones, by the way.  They'll mix it up deliberately, to prevent defenses from predicting them.

Note: Hue is calling the plays, but is as likely as his assistants to choose plays that work.  (Down the road apiece, Rhona LaCanfora will be reporting on a "civil war" between Hue and his assistants wait and see.)

But this time, if both starting guards go down, they can run more zone to help the backups who will replace them.  

That's why this looks brilliant to me:  Zone-blocking is the fallback position, and should work just fine!

I hope Greco hangs on.  Really like that guy.

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

McCourty, Free Safety, Rbs, Brantley, and the Browns

I like the Jason McCourty signing.  He's still under 30, he's 6' tall, and he came pretty cheap.

Like Joe Haden, this guy hasn't been able to get or stay healthy for a couple seasons.  And I mean exactly like Joe, as he too has had serious groin issues.

He's played for Gregg Williams, so he can definitely help his new teammates understand what he's trying to do with them.

Speculation is rampant, but mostly educated.  He could indeed bump Jamar Taylor back inside.  One guy wrote that he's lost a step, and is now better suited to play a zone, but I'm not so sure.  After all, he's been injured.  At 29, and healthy, he may well still be solid in man.

That groin stuff is terrible for a man corner.  When a receiver makes his move, the corner has to get as low as he can to turn and catch up.  It makes his legs spead out, see?  If he can't do that, he can't catch back up.  It's a critical part of their turn: "sinking his hips".

This signing was, of course, related to Howard Wilson's injury, and it clearly tells the insightful observer that the Browns are trying to win right now.

Another guy said that McCourty could be tried at free safety, and this does make sense.  He's got tons of experience, including under Gregg Williams.  He certainly (if healthy) has the range and coverage skills, and would not have survived with this Coach if he couldn't tackle too.

He's a little light, but then so are a lot of free safeties, including the underrated human missile, Felix Wright (earlier post).

Free safety is, by definition, a zone coverage position, and his groin is less important.  A single high safety charges the line vs runs, or picks receivers up who are already committed, and running full speed.

Joe Haden really is too small for free safety.  McCourty might just be a good one.

Other writers have been declaring cornerback a glaring position of need, which is, of course, stupid.  Sigh...ok well Jamar Taylor, Joe Haden, and Brien Boddy-Calhoun are all pretty good WHEN H E A L T H Y DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?

NO man cornerback can, or is expected to, cover anybody for longer than five seconds.  Cornerback was not, and is not, a big weakness on this team.  

Free safety is, at least if Gregg wants to do his Buddy Ryan stuff.  I really think that McCourty is a new contestant in the free safety sweepstakes.  Competition is good.  Competition works.

Anyway, while you do need two outside cornerbacks with certain skills, defensive backs are defensive backs.  McCourty will be on the field a lot, regardless of what they call him.  A solid value for the price.  The first year is probably all guaranteed, and year two should make him an affordable cut (don't trust anybody over 30, man!)

Joe Thomas obviously reads my Blog.  I mean, he's talking about teaching Garrett "how to think like an offensive tackle" and stuff!  And Garrett is eating it up!

Ah I can hear Black Cloud now: "Garrett is just saying that stuff".

No, Joe Thomas didn't just fall off the turnip truck, G.  Nor has he got a snowball's chance at a political carreer, because he never learned how to lie.

And this is perfect.  Joe Thomas, teaching Myles Garrett how he thinks, and how he is trying to stop him.  That is just huge.  Myles can kind of ignore everybody else.

And Thomas will push him, too.  There will be zero bullshit when he and Garrett duke it out.  Joe Thomas will force Myles Garrett to be the best he can be, period.  It's perfect.

I pity every other offensive tackle Myles Garrett will face in 2017.

Here is a really good article on the Browns 2016 running game.  The Cliff Notes version is that the Browns averaged 4.4 YPC in the first half, and 5.5 YPC in the second half of games.  That's because opposing teams had the lead, and were focused on stopping the pass, so those not rushing the passer were in coverage.

The writer also cites PFF metrics a lot to reveal some other things that I've been telling you all along:  When a running back is stuffed, it's almost always on the offensive line.  Browns running backs were stuffed too often (particularly outside the ends and between the tackles), but also had a lot of big runs.

PFF and this writer like the Browns running backs.  The blockers are mostly responsible for the first few yards, but after that, it is the running back who does the damage himself.  

The Browns had an obvious issue at center, and of course lost both guards to injury.  And now, they have added Tretter and Zietler, so look tf out: It's time to feed the Crow.

Peter Smith updates the Free Safety Derby nicely, describing the top four contenders in detail.  Peter kind of agrees with me about UDFA Kai Nacua having a bit of an edge.

Peter says two things hurt him: He's sometimes caught out of position, and he has a temper.

Ok but this is Peter doing his best Bill O'Reilly impression and making sure he gets all the bad stuff in, because the incident he mentioned took place in 2014, and he continued starting through 2016 without further problems.

I also have to wonder how often he was out of position in 2016, relative to '15 and '14.  Usually, Pete accounts for such progress, except when he's in O'Reilly mode.

Tyvis Powell and Nacua have the most physical talent.  Nacua is more agile; Powell a little faster and taller.  But Powell didn't get a lot of turnovers with the Buckeyes, wheras Nacua was an interception machine, which is why Pete and I like him a little more.

Pete educates me about Ed Reynolds:  He did great vs the run, but not so well vs the pass, and apparently Ray Horton played more cover two last season, so he was rarely a true center-fielder.

This article may have been written before the McCourty signing.  As I mentioned, Gregg probably wants him at cornerback, but if it isn't looking like any diamonds are being formed at free safety, McCourty's hat will get tossed in that ring.

Peter thinks that if it's not looking good at free safety, the Browns may look for a veteran.  Well, he's talking about somebody over 30 who has been or will be cut from his own team, and I doubt that.

As I've posted earlier, Gregg can run a cover 2 if he needs to, and any geezer he might sign probably lacks the range to get it done himself.

Ok: Caleb Brantley has been cleared.  In other words, he was innocent.  As in falsely accused.  The guys on NFL Radio are talking about "watching him" for "anything else like this", which is just infuriating.  He didn't do anything wrong!

Anyway, time to re-evaluate the draft:  Brantley was considered by most a top 45 prospect before this extortion attempt, and Sashi Brown picked him up at the flea market.

Everybody who was calling him a dumbass IS a dumbass.

YOU STAND CORRECTED.





Monday, May 15, 2017

Gregg Williams Plotting and Scheming: ?

When asked how he came up with his defensive scheme, Gregg Williams lists Buddy Ryan at the top of his list, and mentions Bud Carson as well.

We all know about Ryan's 46 defense.  It's the "You go or I go" Ernie Shavers defense.  Four down linemen check.  Middle linebacker check.  Where it gets crazy is that the two "outside" linebackers set up right on the line, side by side, next to the weakside defensive end.

The strong safety (46 was Doug Plank's number btw) sets up like a linebacker, off the line on the strong side.

Often, both those outside linebackers blitze (SIX man rush), and sometimes even the mike comes too.

You go or I go, right?

Essential here is that "special" strong safety, and a really good free safety, because NOBODY is double-covered, and the running back usually has nobody on him at all.

Free safety for the Browns is a question mark.  If that guy misses tackles, or is out of position, it could be disasterous.

But they got the strong safety, the defensive line, and the linebackers to run it.  It's nearly impossible to run against, but it also beats the hell out of quarterbacks.

The running back is left uncovered because he usually has to try to pick up a blitze, and if he does catch a dumpoff, it has to be to the strong side (towards the unblocked strong safety), with the mike reading it and moving to head him off at the pass.

It's far from perfect, especially when the other team has a skyscraper receiver with some speed.

Bud Carson is different.  He built the Steel Curtain.  He ran cover two.  Two safeties, who are kind of interchangeable, instead of free and strong.

He blitzed a lot too, but from a more conventional front.

Gregg Williams has to have a special free safety to run antyting like his version of a 46, but can run the Carson stuff with the people he has now.  Cover 2 safeties don't need to cover the whole field.

He could use Jabrill Peppers the way Bud Carson used small, super-fast linebacker David Grayson, if not as one of the twin safeties.

A note on that:  Nobody thinks Peppers could play linebacker in the NFL because he's not big enough to shed blocks by centers and guards in the NFL.  That might need a closer examination.

As Pat Kirwan noted on NFL Radio, many of today's weakside linebackers are smaller and quicker; selected for range and coverage skills more than for leverage and muscle.  This is another adaptation to spread offenses.

An offensive lineman has no chance against them in space, and soon this season, offensive coordinators are going to quit wasting time trying to target them with huge, lumbering bohemoths.

Look, see, the spread and two tight end stuff, along with inside/outside zone blocking hell, the Pistol and Read Option have changed things.  This isn't our Daddy's football any more!

Personal Opinion Alert (see disclaimer):  I believe Gregg Williams is adaptable, creative, and ahead of the curve.  Everything we have expected of him is based on his history.

Nothing wrong with that.  But Gregg will check out the players he is stuck with, the Division he is stuck in, and build his defense accordingly.

I heard Hue Jackson describe Williams as a defensive version of himself.  He meant, I'm telling you, that Gregg Williams will build his defense around his TALENT.

I need to study on this further, but for the moment, I can tell you that Williams might run a cover 2 scheme, at least sometimes...if a true center field free safety doesn't emerge, he might be more Bud than Buddy, see?

The one constant with Gregg Williams is pressure.  Carson and Ryan were both all about the best defense being...a really offensive defense.  The details of his coverage scheme have been over-stressed (including by my humble self).

I now think that a Malik Hooker was not as high on his shopping list as we all thought he was.  If Gregg doesn't find an elite center fielder on the current roster, he might just run a cover 2.

Gregg probably wanted Adams more than Hooker, and possibly even Peppers more than Hooker too.  Ok he might want to do Buddy Ryan in a perfect world, but he can fall back to Bud Carson if he needs to.

Poor Gregg.  Forced to resort to the Steel Curtain wow that sucks, right?

I'll have to study on this more, and address it in another post.  Gregg doesn't have as much talent to work with here as Bud Carson had on the Steelers?

Bullshit.  Stay tuned.

Saturday, May 13, 2017

Reality Shows, Gossip, BS, and the Cleveland Browns

Nobody should be surprised that for the moment Cody Kessler is the top Browns quarterback.  I predict that nobody will beat him out, either.

None of the other guys are as accurate, or have as quick a release.  These rank much higher on Hue Jackson's heirarchy of traits than height, or even arm strength...ok?  Okay, dammit?

He's the one most familiar with Hue Jackson's system, along with Coleman, DeValve, Duke, etc.

I'm sick of people pointing at his win/loss record as if it means more than his completion percentage, third down efficiency, efficiency under pressure, td/int ratio, etc etc etc., and that is deliberately ignorant.

Cody Kessler did not play defense, or miss field goals, or fail to gain six inches, or give up thirty points.  He wasn't responsible for his field position---or his tactical position.

His in-depth statistics mean a s-load more than his win-loss record.

I call this deliberately ignorant because Brock Osweiler has more experience and a very GOOD win/loss record, but none of these guys are saying he should start for the Browns.  

Well, I've done Kessler to death sorry:

You people are incredible.  Peppers misses the first day and it's so he can avoid peeing in a cup now?  Oh for crying out loud are you that desperate?  I'm embarrassed for you.  I cringe when I read this garbage, because I know everybody else will be rolling their eyes and shaking their heads when they read it too.

Why don't you stick with Brantley?  Go dig up the kindergarten teacher who caught him peeing in the bushes why don't you?  Talk about Josh Gordon's deep psychological problems and many addictions and how he's exactly like Manziel.

I feel your desperation.  I'm trying to help.  Just watch closely.  Sooner or later, Hue Jackson will say something on some subject which is not identical to what Sashi Brown said, and you will have a smoking gun to re-introduce the "divide" civil war stuff.

Seriously, this is mud.  Even guys like me have voices, out there in front of people, and around 90% of us are clueless.

Clueless is one thing, but those who get paid for it have devolved into muck-rakers and sensationalists; like athlete papparazi.

Always looking for drama.  Conflict.  Criminal behavior.  Tragedy.  

I try to stick to the facts and actual football stuff.

Jabrill drank too much water at the combine.  That's all.  Joe Thomas said the same thing happened to him, only they just had him do it again, and tested him clean.  Nobody can figure out when or why they decided to declare a diluted sample a failed test.

God, I just despise Roger Goodell!  I'm telling you, he is a classic megalomaniac, complete with a God complex.  Josh Gordon isn't ruining his own carreer.  Goodell is doing that to him!

Second hand levels significantly below those the US military standards,?  Drinks on a plane with teammates after the season was over?  Sheee I think they nailed him for drinking too much water once too do you hear the "Twilight Zone" theme here?

You're sheep, including Terry Pluto (sorry Terry).  I don't think Josh Gordon has a problem!  Correction:  His only problem is King Roger.  LOOK at this for what it IS, and screw this irrational pc crap!

 Peppers and that linebacker and the other guys could have simply been retested minutes later, but instead they have a fking strike against them and are in a fking program because they drank too much fking water!

And now YOU people "He's on the molly and on the lean" "AHA! WHY wasn't his agreement in place?  There can be only one explanation!  He's on drugs!"

You're like bacteria.  An idiotic NFL rule causes a scratch, and you jump right in there, trying to make it rot and fester.

I should have 100 times more readers than I do, because I'm the only "T-cell" I know of that goes after this LaCanfora before it can fester.  And I don't care who says it (it's very hard for me to pick on Terry Pluto or Peter Smith, and Jim Miller---you broke my heart, man!).

Ok well DB Howard Wilson broke his kneecap.  I can hear the staph infection jokes already, but that was then, this is now, and that hasn't happened for several years, so please let it go.

For Sashi, this aint bad, since (if I'm right) it extends his contract for another season.  (I could be wrong).  

Anyway, I'll let this go after this, but I need to redundanationalize one last time that Howard Wilson is not a nickel back, except vs a big/tall slot guy, and nickel back is not cornerback training wheels.

Brien Boddy-Calhoun is the Browns top nickel back, and two UFDA's will be all up in his face trying to take his job away.  They are 5'9", very quick, and very fast.  Peppers is here for the big slot guys.

Howard Wilson was here to compete with and back up Haden and Taylor, period.

This injury doesn't just erase him for 2017, but opens up new possibilities:

If Hans and Franz pump him up (from 185 lbs) to over 200 lbs by next season, he could be in the running for free safety.

Wilson had great production in college, but is not really a quick-twitch athlete.  He's really smart, coordinated, has great instincts, and uses his 6'1" really well.  He has great upside at free safety.  His future as a cornerback is less certain, because he doesn't recover (make up lost ground) well, and has decent but not great speed.

I have been impressed with Andrew Berry and Sashi Brown with respect to how well they've done scooping up UDFA's and guys other teams have released.

Calhoun is one of those, and as the primary nickel back, he is, for all intents and purposes, a starter.  This season, two of these guys (one claimed off waivers from Seattle, and another signed undrafted this season) will be serious contenders for the critical free safety role, which is the only real defensive need the Browns were unable to address through free agency or the draft.

If you want an example of undrafted potential, you need look no further than Isaiah Crowell, or the Seahawks Superbowl roster, or the Hall of Fame.  We have a very small sample size in this department for this new regime, but I have enough to be optimistic.

I like Myles Garrett more daily.  I like everything he says.  Screw the Jerry Jones tape--he really seems very mature and "together" for a kid his age.

Specificly, he can't figure out how saying he wants to sack Big Ben is news.  A lot of kids would get intimidated into some sort of apology by Big Ben saying how he and Clowney laughed about it, and the dumbass "Don't poke the bear" articles.

At Garrett's age, I was far less advanced.  I wouldn't have apologized, but my reaction to the subsequent criticism would have been a lot less diplomatic.  I would have given the Steelers enough bulletin board material to keep them for a decade.

But I was also impressed by Sashi and Hue's statements on this massive "controversey":  (Distilled:) "Big deal.".

I'm so sick of political correctness, and expected more of the same, but from both the player and his bosses I heard rationality for once.  

I don't care if Big Ben pretends Myles Garrett is funny, or if Clowney (his CENTER) pretends to agree.  In fact, I find this predictable, arrogant, and obtuse.

Do you really believe that those Steeler offensive tackles look forward to Myles Garrett?  I mean really, the Steelers are the ones who gave the Browns bulletin board material.  

If I was Hue (or Gregg) I would use this:

"Listen to these guys 'sniff-chortle' yeah Clowney and me really look foreward to it'!  Let's see the almost unanimous first overall pick, practicing against Joe Thomas, and they think he's funny! Hey Joe, how's he doing against you? You guys hear that? Gee I sure wish we had offensive tackles as good as the Steelers do!  Here we are fooling ourselves into thinking Myles has a chance!"

Bulletin boards aside, and now that I think about it, Big Ben's response really is massively arrogant and insulting...

Ah crap.  Might as well knock this out now, since I'm on the matchup:

The 2017 Stoolers aren't like the Ratbirds.  They nabbed Watt's brother, got their skyscraper number two receiver (Bryant) all pumped up back from suspension, in general drafted well, and gained more than they lost in free agency.  They have some emerging talent, including at tight end.

They look BETTER in 2017 than they did heading into 2016.

The Browns have improved more than the Stoolers have, so the gap should narrow somewhat, but the Stoolers have to be favored substantially in both games in 2017.

Big Ben is truly an elite quarterback who should rightfully rate with Brady, Manning, Rodgers, etc and that offense is just freaking LOADED ok?

An upset is possible, of course, but generally the Browns still lack experience, despite having comparable, if not superior overall talent.

Big Ben is better than any Browns quarterback, and the Steelers are a veteran team playing in a memorized system.

The 2017 Browns aren't ready for the 2017 Steelers, who should be top contenders for the Superbowl.  I'm sorry.  I don't like it either.  Reality just sucks sometimes, G.

WTF let's knock Cinci out (and make you feel better):

The 2017 Browns could easily win one game, or even sweep this talented veteran team in 2017.  In 2016, the Browns hurt them more than many realize by taking Hue Jackson away from them.  In 2017, they took Zietler.

In 2016, the Bengals lost both their second and third wide receivers to free agency, and lost Eiffert to injury, so I'm not going to blame their offensive decline on their loss of Hue Jackson or anything.

Still, Cinci isn't as talent-laden as it was, Dalton was elite for one season more because of Hue than Sanu or Jones, and Marvin Lewis is still in charge.

The Browns should win one game, and possibly sweep them.  They now have comparable overall talent, and are better-coached.  They will not be intimidated into choking, and the referees are less likely to screw them.

(Oh yeah I forgot:  The refs might well screw the Browns vs the Stoolers, which I forgot to list as a reason for that predicted sweep.  They might screw the Browns vs the Ravens too.)

Ok glad I knocked that out.

In summary, the 2017 Browns should at least break even with the much less talented Ratbirds, get swept by the Stoolers, and at least split with the Bungles.

I HAVE SPOKEN.