Saturday, July 25, 2020

Stopping Tight Ends, Defensive Strategery, Joe Wood, the Cleveland Browns, and Stuff

Baker Mayfield is doing what he needs to do this offseason, and at least has lost that Pillsbury Doughboy look under great supervision by Hans or Franz (I can't remember which.  One of them isn't allowed to work with him I think).

It won't help him throw the ball any harder or better (except possibly off-balance/all-arm), but should help him run around better, and stay healthier.

Those who question Mayfield's athleticm are worth ignoring.  He's as capable a runner as Pat Mahomes is, but wasn't required to scramble much in his Oklahoma offense, and is a smaller guy.

Some pundits love to raise the bar for Browns' players.  By now, if you're not Lamar Jackson, you're Bernie Kosar.

Even as a Pillsbury Doughboy, Baker Mayfield should excel in this scheme, as he's very nimble, balanced, and coordinated.  For the visually-challenged, he can also run it in from 15+ yards out if a defense forgets he can.

Tom Bielik wrote a scary article axing if the Browns could cover Tight Ends this season, and well...that's not looking good, if you assume that a Linebacker gets that job.

Honestly, I could be fulla beans here, but I don't accept that it has to be a Linebacker.

Ok I get it: That Zack Ertz or George Kittle or whoever just ignores (or runs over) DBs and also outreaches them for catches.

Linebackers or extra-big safeties are usually expected to cover Tight Ends because they can at least jam and jostle them, but the height and reach disadvantage is almost the same as with normal safeties (feel free to google "NFL Defensive Backs over 6'3")

Tom expects Mack Wilson to draw the TE coverage duty in 2020, and that's not unlikely.

Hype aside, 5th rounder or no, Mack Wilson had a crappy rookie season.  Mack did "come on strong" in his last 3-4 starts, so we can expect his "second year leap" to be big, but he's still...hmmm...

Well Mack Wilson actually excelled in coverage in college (with some inconsonsistencies). He's also 6'1" (taller than Schobert)...

Ok Tom Bielik is probably right about Mack Wilson being the Little Dutch anti-Tight End Boy in 2020, since he has the matchup-tools for it.

That still doesn't look good for the '20 Browns.  In 2018/19 Joe Schobert rated near the top in coverage per PFF, but the Browns' defense still sucked vs Tight Ends.  (I'm trying to figure that out).

Bielik also pointed to Joe Woods' history vs Tight Ends in Denver, which was pretty bad...however, his defenses twice ranked first in the NFL vs the pass, and all of his secondaries have always ranked high.

Even in his worst season vs Tight Ends (as a Denver DC), opposing TEs only scored 8 TDs (they chewed him up between the 20s but he shut them down in the red zone).

A critical thinker (or intelligent analyst) sees stuff like this and wonders why.  A Memorex Moron or Conclusion-leaper just assumes that Joe Woods can't figure out how to cover Tight Ends.

I kinda think that Joe Woods prioritizes shutting down Wide (and slot) receivers, and concedes some Tight End damage to get that done.

Seriously, you people: You think any NFL defense can ever stop everything?  EVERY defense makes trade-offs in the real world.

Joe Woods has historically been mediocre vs the run and dominant vs the pass (including Tight Ends).

Back to "can the 2020 Browns cover Tight Ends?":  schmaybe.  We can hope that they won't suck too bad, but safely assume that they will be below average in this sub-category.

If the 2020 Browns are like 6th vs the pass, 13th vs the run, and 10th scoring, are you going to spazz out over Ertz or whoever catching 6 for 95 yards?

There is so much more to this subcategory in this context and with this team:

1: Takitaki only got 100 snaps in 2019, but did grade very high in coverage per PFF.  We shouldn't be in such a hurry to dismiss that, as Takitaki did well in coverage in college as well.

Everybody (except apparently me) rubber-stamps Takitaki as a blitzer and run-stuffer because he was a Defensive End for most of his carreer, and his combine numbers were mediocre.

Well, Joe Schobert was a 3-4 OLB in college, and the combine numbers are comparable.  Rumors of Takitaki's demise (in coverage) are greatly premature.

2: Grant Delpit can run circles around any Tight End, and is crowding 6'3". He can't disrupt a TE route like a Takitaki or Wilson, but he can beat him to his spot, and only needs one fingertip to prevent a catch.

3: Believe it or not, pressure can prevent even catches by Tight Ends.  

In Denver, Joe used Von Bell in coverage, as well as as a passrusher.  Here and now, there's no Von Bells here, and he has a top-notch 4-man Defensive Line.

Bell couldn't blitze and cover at the same time (snap-snap still with me here?).  

3a: He has a strong and deep 4-man front here (until Vernon gets hurt again) with a built-in pass rush, so he can simplify his front 6 more than he could in Denver, meaning...

Oh crap.  This is deep:  

Both of his base Linebackers can (and will) blitze (and duh stop the run), and one of the 2 has to mess with the primary Tight End somewhat sometimes to screw up the timing---but in a Joe Woods defense, he might well release the Tight End quickly and then blitze or...

Anyhoo, "12" packages are all the rage now in the copycat NFL.  Defenses were staffed and manned to stop 11s (3-wides) until a couple years ago, at which point the Ravens (mainly) started exploiting this.

*Freddie Kitchens in 2018 kicked ass doing this too, but I now suspect that Bob Wiley was right, and that Ken Zampese did that for him*

More and more teams are using 2 Tight Ends (both of which are good receivers--who wooda THUNKED it?) 

So all the pundits are obsessed with how defenses are going to stop (my favorite) Kittle, Ertze, Higbee, Andrews etc.  

The fact is, Virginia, that nobody can shut these guys down, ever.  All you can do is slow them down and keep them from scoring in the red zone which...Joe Woods does.

Now (read carefully) Chubb and Hunt both on the field at the same time is outside the box, and could screw defenses up.  No other offense in the NFL could or would run the a base 2-back like the Browns will, if Stefanski has a brain.

(I know: This has nothing to do with how the '20 Browns defense will deal with opposing TEs, but I have to go here again--since nobody has been listening):

NFL Defenses are adapting to 2-TE offenses (like the one Stefanski ran in 2019 with the Vikings), but NONE of them are trying to adapt to offenses featuring 2 running backs.

Stefanski's "woke" stance confirmed that he's not as smart as my humble self in general, but I concede that he is a much better football coach than I am right now.

...seriously I can excuse Mayfield, but Stefanski is old and smart enough to know better but I digress:

Anyhoo like I said the NFL has never seen anything like a Chubb/Hunt offense, and if Comrade Kevin doesn't exploit that, I'll be first in line with the rope, torch, and pitcfork.

Politics aside, DUH.  The NFL has NEVER seen a Chubb/Hunt backfield.  DUH DUH DOYEEE this is a no-brainer.

Jeez I've read pundits predicting 2-TE offenses 60% of the time WHY!?!  WHY tf would you bench Kareem Hunt for ANY Tight End?

In fairness, one guy suggested a 2-2 with OBJ (no Landry), so it's not all idiocy but okbye




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