Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Drew Forbes Hedging his Bets, Browns Best NFL Backfield, Mayfield a Sheep, and Stuff

I can't blame Drew Forbes or the other guy for opting out of the 2020 season.  I don't for a minute believe it's for health concerns:

Forbes is a 2nd year player in danger of getting cut.  Wyatt Teller is ahead of him on the depth chart, and 2 other players could sneak into the competition.

Forbes can preserve his contract, and dedicate a whole year to refining himself as a player--and come back next season more prepared to fight for a top job than he is now.

And Drew knows more about himself and his competition than we do.  Is it possible he expects the much more experienced Teller to win the Right Guard Derby?  Does he feel "not ready yet?"

Oh, I hear some of you: "If he doesn't think he's the best, he shouldn't play football".  You have watched too many movies.  Quarterbacks are different.  Offensive linemen are big fat guys, and even the best have to work their butts off to approach their potentials.

Certainly, Forbes feels he can become the best, and at the same time recognize that he has some work to do to get there.

And he and Teller are probably good freinds.  That's how it is with the big uglies.  They compete with eachother, but let the Coaches sort the rest out, and it's not personal for them.

Thomas Moore tells us that PFF ranks Hunt/Chubb as the best backfield in the NFL.

I hadn't known that along with leading the league in yards after contact, Chubb also led all RBs in missed tackles per reception too!

I've been telling you that Nick Chubb is an excellent receiver who simply hasn't been used that way much.  

He m i g h t never line up outside the slot like Hunt does, but he can do everything Todd Gurley has done.

I have consulted Captain Obvious, and we concur that Hunt will back Chubb up and sometimes relieve him as the primary tailback, but also work at fullback, slot, and outside receiver with Chubb.

The Captain also agrees with me that Stefanski won't run as many 2-Tight End sets with this team as he did with the 2019 Vikings, because to quote CO:  "That would mean benching Landry, OBJ, Hunt, or Chubb, which would be stupid."

This is why the Captain and I laugh at Gurzi, Pluto, Mary Kay, and even my top-ranked analysts, who say:

1: David Njoku shouldn't want to leave, because even as the #2 Tight End he'll have a lot of opportunities

2: The Browns won't trade Njoku, because Bryant Harrison may not be ready to fill that role *Pharaoh Brown and Steve Carlson have ceased to exist*.

3: Who will be the third WR?

The Captain expects (assuming everybody is healthy) Nick Chubb to play 75-80% of the offensive downs (and take a breather on third and longs).

Kareem Hunt should come close to that.  He'll be the Tailback on those aforementioned downs, and Chubb's wing-man on the majority of the other downs.

Actual 2-back personnel should be there at least 60% of the time.  This is because Chubb could line up in the slot and Hunt anywhere, and they each take great pride in blocking, too.

They could do anything from a punishing, physical 21 to an empty backfield spread.  They could keep one or both RBs in for a max-protect long bomb, or...well just anything.  How is any defense supposed to deal with all that?

FB Andy Janovich might only get 15%; the short-yardage stuff.  He's here more for the post-Hunt era than for 2020.

I have no doubt that Kevin Stefanski will occasionally rest Landry or OBJ in favor of a second Tight End, but not often...

2 Tight Ends maybe 25% of the time (in 2020).

Once again, Kareem Hunt changes everything, see?  You HAVE TO PLAY HIM while he's here.

Fast forward to 2021 and...

Well to review an earlier post, if I were Berry/Stefanski, I would consider extending Kareem Hunt as if he was a Wide Receiver; ie pay da man (WRs make more than Running Backs, see?  It's why Ebeneezer Bell went all greedynuts).

If you can think outside the box, since the Bell travesty, no Running Back (much less one with Hunt's off the field history and red flags) is going to try that shit again, so the RBs (including Christian McCaffery himself) make less than WRs.

So (try to stay with me here) Kareem Hunt might settle for being the 3rd or 5th highest paid RB in the NFL with a front-loaded contract for 3 or more years.

He is worth this money as a big, strong, durable bellcow running back, and worth more as a slot or Z receiver.

Keep up here:  OBJ and his salary probably get traded in 2021; Njoku may well be gone before he ever collects his 5th year salary, and Pegleg Vernon and his salary leave too, so there's a bunch more money in the coffers now, right?  

Enough to also extend Nick Chubb, Ward, and Mayfield (well maybe.  Would Ward and/or Mayfield accept Garrett-like extentions tacked onto their intact contracts?  If not, the 5th year tenders lock them up through 2022.

The DePoBerry strategy with Garrett was pretty brilliant:  Garrett is smart enough not to care what he makes in 2020 and 2021 if he's guaranteed another 100 million bucks on top of that, even if his carreer ends tomorrow.

Meanwhile, he will never actually be the highest paid defensive player, as by 2023, the salary cap is easily over 200 mil and 2-5 other defenders are making more than he is.

Berry got the player to trade the "last dime" for security.

If he could do the same with Mayfield and Ward, he could lock up both Hunt and Chubb and roll over a bunch of cap savings into 2022 and 2023 (assuming the trades and releases I mentioned).

Anyhow this is why I'm not counting Kareem Hunt a GMF after 2020 like everybody else is.

However, Berry did sign Janovich and load up on Tight Ends, so he's clearly preparing for a post-Hunt era already.

It still could be Plan B.  I mean, Janovich was pretty cheap, and Njoku has a LOT more trade value than most yokels think.

All together, it looks like DePoBerry have covered all their bases: With or without Njoku, Stefanski can go back to 2 Tight Ends and a Fullback in 2021 if Hunt is gone.

Baker Mayfield is getting bashed for a lack of leadership.  It's not altogether unwarrented.

Mike Ditka was and is a leader.  When Baker promised to kneel for the National Anthem and regurgitate propaganda, all I heard was "baahhh!  B-baaahhh!"  

There's still hope for Baker.  He might realize that refusing to kneel for the National Anthem is the most outrageous thing he can do.

And he might even eventually comprehend why.

Baker?  Turn off CNDNC and MSDNC and do a little research, and quit being a sheep/punk/dick and yes:  Get your head out.


No comments: