Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Odell Beckham Jr and the Browns and Rumors and Analytics and Stuff

Randy Gurzi is getting better at intelligent analysis as he attacks a rumor that OBJ wants out:

He seems to understand, this time, that the rumor is likely based in conjecture from somebody like me, and nothing he or his teammates or coaches or family or agent or anybody else actually said.

That's progress.  Randy is getting there.

Anyway, OBJ might well want out as, for whatever reasons, his production remains at historic lows for him.

Beckham has been a great team player.  As I said when ignorant people were comparing him to Antonio Brown, while he does love attention, he's not selfish or stupid, and I'd prefer to keep him, but...

Full disclosure: I was less than thrilled with the trade that brought OBJ here.  You can check my posts from then and earlier.

In a nutshell, I said that Baker Mayfield naturally distributed the ball to the deepest open receiver.

Mayfield made stars out of nobodies--several of which have been released and disappeared.  I didn't consider a superstar wide receiver a priority at all, whatsoever, for this Quarterback.

I now believe that, (exactly as I predicted before and after the trade),  compelling Mayfield to favor one receiver and throw deep more often has done more harm than good.

NOW, opposing defenses focus on OBJ in various ways, but always taking the whole top (deep) part of his route tree away.

I can't get too deep in the weeds here, but because OBJ isn't big or tall, one-handed catches or no, he's NOT a good target on vertical deep routes.

The loss of David Njoku hurt OBJ, as Njoku IS a vertical deep threat inside that physically overmatches any one defender in coverage.  Njoku makes a big difference!

But the addition of Kareem Hunt should also have taken some heat off OBJ in several ways (but in a nutshell it's mainly that the Free Safety has to be more aggressive in general, and can NOT ever ignore Hunt...)

It's more deep weeds, but ok ok that Free Safety is the break glass-in-case-of-emergency guy; the "cap"; the shoestring td-preventer, ok?

Kareem Hunt as a receiver overmatches any defender they try to cover him with (*the corners are on Landry and OBJ, the SS (or somebody) on Njoku, ergo some linebacker or oversized safety has to try to cover Hunt, and that's just...funny, ok?)

Anyway all-man is idiot-proof for Baker Mayfield---dammit, and...

Too deep.  Honest guys, I could break it all down, but you'd get bored and bug (or pass) out.

Anyway I digress: As I (blush-blush) predicted in a post a long time ago, Odell Beckham Jr could be on the trading block after 2019.

His age, history, and contract trump 2019, and he should fetch a first round pick at least.

No knock on OBJ the player or person, but I'll take that deal, and use the savings to keep Schobert and company.

I HAVE SPOKEN

Just a note here on TE Stephen Carleson:  He's like DeValve (an oversized WR), but is 6'4", has blocked well, and seems to have already passed up Ricky Seals-Jones.  Very promising.



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