Friday, October 11, 2019

Russell Wilson and 21 Other Players vs the Healthy Browns. Browns win if Kitchens Doesn't Choke.

Jeff Risdon is normally a great analyst, but doesn't understand the X-receivers role as well as he should.  He got most of it right, but the X---not the Y or Z--is the primary deep threat.

The "number one" receiver is normally the X.  Most are big and tall, with good straight line speed.  

He goes deep a lot in part to compel the defense to hold a safety deep, and to roll that safety towards him (and away from somebody else). 

This is why Pat Kirwan calls him a "coverage-dictator".

The X does draw man coverage a lot, because like Jeff said he's fairly predictable; no presnap motion; he's going to challenge the corner in front of him (and try to burn him...ahem...deep if he can, Jeff).

But as Risdon points out, vs the Niners Callaway was playing a new (and more complex) position, so he probably screwed up some.

Oh shut tf up with your "excuses" garbage, Sargeant Rock!  What a load of crap you guys carry around in your skulls--I can't believe you can stand erect!

Inexperienced players screw up more than veterans.  It's not an "excuse".  It's a fact.  And no, you are NOT Vince Lombardi (and he didn't buy half of what he was selling you idjuts!)

But I digress:  Per Jeff Risdon, the return of Rashard Higgins is moving Callaway back to X (and his comfort zone).  

OBJ is the starting X here, so Callaway backs him up (but will be the 4th WR in any group calling for one).

The return of Higgins is more important than people not...me realize.  Higgins was being used in the slot a ton when he got injured, see?

Higgins was very effective in this role.  Everybody seems to think that slot guys all need to be fast-twitch microbes like Edelman or Amendola or like that, but big physical guys can excel there as well.

In this case, Higgins excelled as a blocker, as well as a receiver.

Rashard Higgins can't create separation like the shorter guys do, but he overmatches the microbes defenses try to stop him with in size and reach, and has become excellent at leverage and positioning.

He's also faster vs cornerbacks than he is against clocks.

Higgins in the slot allowed Landry to set up outside.

I don't fully understand why, but Freddie Kitchens seems determined to use Higgins inside and Landry outside.

To be sure, Higgins reads and reacts to coverage exceptionally well, Mayfield trusts him, and they connect a lot.  The slot guy is generally closer to the QB than his other (non-running back) options, and of course Higgins blocks well in space.

I hate that Freddie Kitchens effectively said that hoping for 14-plus play drives was unrealistic, and that you need "chunk-plays".

I hope he was just inarticulate, because it sounded as if he was determined to stick with spreads, the shotgun, 5 and 7-step drops...

That must be it!  I mean if you're dealing to Chubb 45-plus % of the time, why tf...well I just don't believe that Freddie is as dumb as he sounds sometimes.

Maybe Freddie is one of those idiot savant autistic types!

Russell Wilson is white-hot and the Seahawks are scary,  but it looks like the Browns are getting Ward, Williams, and Higgins back all at once, and nobody (else) seems to have noticed this.

The Seahawks defense is just so-so vs the pass, and their front doesn't compare to the Niners.  They are missing both their starting Left Tackle and Right Guard.

Russell Wilson in 2019 looks a lot like Pat Mahomes, despite not having comparable weapons.  He will find every tiny little crease and exploit it.

Wilks can't lead this guy into any traps (like every defense Mayfield has faced this season has suckered him), but Russ hasn't faced a Wilks zone with this much talent, either.

Russell Wilson is human, and there is only one of him.  The more talented team should win in Cleveland, if the Coaches don't botch it.

The 3-wide ("11" personnel with one RB and TE) might work with Higgins back if Mayfield is under center or 3 steps deep and hands off and hits short routes in under around 1.8 seconds, but I'm getting skeptical.

Yep.  I got that old, familiar feeling.  You get it.  But I'm not there in the G-camp just yet.

Freddie Kitchens is not Hue Jackson.  I'm not willing to join your necktie party just yet.  Kitchens might pull it (ie his head) out.

I haven't updated my Win/Loss prediction yet: 13-3.  As always, I will update this sunday night or monday, after analyzing the most recent data.

Seriously: Browns 27, Seahawks 24...IF...

THIS JUST IN: Joel Cade (citing a Jake Burns film study) tells us what is "wrong with" Baker Mayfield in 2019.

This excellent article enlightened even my humble self (slightly)---nah a lot.  Click that link.  Burns and Cade got this whole thing nailed.  Pray that Freddie Kitchens reads it.

A top 10 all-time article.  Click here.

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