Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Ravens vs Browns, Bucky Brooks, Subjectivity, and the Browns

The Greg Robinson signing isn't the yawner others will consider it to be, because this guy has terrific upside.  There were reasons why he was projected to go in the first round of his draft, as itemized in the linked article.

He's never lived up to these projections in the NFL, so we can't expect him to elbow his way to the starting left tackle spot, but he has starting experience at guard and left tackle, and he's a surprising athlete.

Robinson probably won't start, but could hang on as a versatile depth player with a lot of experience; possibly the top backup at left tackle.

Chris Schisler, a Baltimore writer, explored the matchup between the Ravens and the Browns.  He tried to be objective, but failed.

Marlon Humphries is a terrific cornerback, but probably not a "shut-down" type, and it's an even bigger stretch to call Jimmy Smith a shut-down corner.

Chris doesn't expect either of these two having any problems man covering that pesky Josh Gordon.  

Chris also mentions lots of other cornerbacks who can cover slot guys, which pretty much eliminates Cory Coleman and whatshisname (yawn).

Chris cites the Ravens vulnerability to tight ends, and does worry about Njoku.

But in summary, Chris forsees no problem as long as the Ravens can trap Taylor in the pocket and stop the run (yawn).

I'm trying hard not to pick on this guy, and I know he might be on a word-count or something, but 

1: NOBODY could even slow down Josh Gordon through 14 games in 2013, with double coverage.  How does Chris find not one, but two cornerbacks on one roster that can do the job?

2: Ditto Landry.  

3: You assume that your defense can shut down the Browns rush in 2018 with Haley calling the shots, really?

In "Ravens offense vs Browns defense", Chris got even more general, and relied exclusively on the two games in 2017.

Flacco did okay, and the Ravens managed to almost run the ball well sorta.  Chris says Denzel Ward should help in coverage, but with the Ravens new receivers, the Ravens shouldn't be "too worried about it".

Well yeah, as I posted earlier, the 2018 Ravens will have the best wide receivers they've had in several years (I've honestly felt sorry for Flacco), but jeez, Chris! While your guys upgraded your wide receivers, my guys upgraded their whole secondary (massively!)

They "shouldn't be too worried about that"?  Oh, I beg to differ!

Seriously, what scares me about the Ravens is what Harbaugh will do with his new toy, Lamar Jackson.

Other than that, Chris, my guys are better than your guys.  

If they don't hold the free safety back to back up whichever cornerback Gordon will out-muscle or outrun, he'll torch you deep.

If they DO hold the safety back,  Landry will knaw on you like a pihrannah, Njoku WILL hurt you bad, and (name somebody) will average 4-plus yards per-carry.

Listen, Chris, you can only field eleven guys at once, and it takes eight to stack a box, and two to double-cover Rodney Gordonfield.  Your guys will lose each and every one-on-one matchup vs Gordon and Landry, just like everybody else in the NFL has.

And you're right about Njoku:  He WILL turn them upside down and take their lunch money.  And so might DeValve and Fells too!

But thanks for throwing us that bone!

You were right about how to stifle Tyrod Taylor, though: Keep him inside and get heat on him ASAP.  But you're assuming that the Browns offensive line doesn't get a vote?  Dig a little deeper, Chris.

There's a new coordinator in town, who knows your guys intimately, and has new toys of his own to play with.  If you think Todd Haley will run a Marquis of Queensbury offense and make Tyrod Taylor a sitting duck for you like Hue Palmer did...

And you know, after the first 9-10 times Gramps Suggs fights through traffic and chases that rabbit, he might keel over, ya know?

This is the Hensley (or maybe Helmsley) effect in Baltimore.  This H guy is our Mary Kay Cabbott, and he just drips sniffing, lint-flicking, dismissive arrogance in re the Browns.

Guys like Chris Shisler can't help but be influenced by that.  Chris made an honest effort to be objective, but...

This is why critical thinking should be taught in every gradeschool (along with the US Constitution).  

Chris:  Think with your brain! That's what it's there for!  And not the reptilian part, but the newly-evolved frontal and cortical parts!

Your guys are outgunned! Harbaugh and Jackson (and of course the refs) might bail you out, but unless they do, your boyz are gonna lose both games.  Deal with it.

Hue Jackson's history with quarterbacks is being exhaggerated and over-inflated again.

1: He should have started the best quarterback out of training camp/preseason: Kevin Hogan.

Shut up.  Hogan was the "veteran", had played well in 2016, and if he'd had more reps with the ones and been allowed to gain more experience, his whole story might have turned out different.

2: As it was, benching Kizer for Hogan was an obvious move.  Kizer just plain SUCKED, okay?  In reality, Jackson was a dumbass for naming Kizer the starter in game one, and in re-benching Hogan for him after one start---NOT for benching Kizer.

3: Hue remains the Head Coach, and does have the authority to name his starters.

But as I've explained repeatedly, Hue is on thin ice, and will NOT win any arguments he has with either of his coordinators.  Haslam remains the owner, and has the gavel.

Even if you think Hue Jackson is a panic-prone spazz (which he isn't), Todd Haley won't let him mess his offense up.

4: You're not reaching with this stuff--you're diving!  You expect Tyrod Taylor's wheels to come off here, now?  How likely is that?  Stop it!

Now, I've been generalizing on Tyrod Taylor's past "weapons", but this article by Josh Edwards corrected me.

Tyrod got the Bills into the playoffs last season with Charles Clay, LeSean McCoy, and not much else.  That's in the bank.

But as Josh points out, in 2015 (his first year as a starter), Tyrod had Chris Hogan, Robert Woods, and (we cooda had)Sammy Watkins.

Along with Clay and McCoy, this was Tyrod's "high water" mark for skilled talent around him.

Context matters:  Tyrod was a first year starter.  He is better now than he was then.  You can't ignore this.

That season, Tyrod completed 242 of 380 passes for 3,035 yards with 20 TDs and 6 interceptions.

That's close to 64%, and 12.54 yards per-completion (189.68 yards per game).  Josh left out Tyrod's rushing numbers here, but that's context as well: Tyrod is a dual threat, and if you leave out his rushing stats when you compare him to guys like Manning and Brady, you're not being fair (no knock on Edwards: he did this on purpose, because he's comparing supporting casts, and not quarterbacks).

Let's compare that "high water" first-year Bills offense to what the much more experienced veteran Tyrod Taylor has to work with now:

First, Wecoodahad Sammy Watkins has never panned out.  He gets hurt a lot, and for whatever reason has never been anything special.

Josh Gordon vs Sammy Watkins is a sick joke.

Woods is a different story, but he was just getting started then.  Woods has emerged as a truly excellent receiver, but in context, the 2018 Landry is better than the 2015 Woods (and might still be better).

And Hogan.  Well, he was a puppy then too.  I don't understand why that Bills regime dumped these guys.  But ditto what I said about Woods: he wasn't as good as Landry is now.

And wait a minute here: Don't write Coleman off just yet, let alone Callaway--one or both of them could be better in 2018 than Woods or Hogan were in 2015.

The more experienced veteran Tyrod Taylor has better wide receivers than he did in 2015.

Josh Edwards calls Charles Clay vs Njoku and company a wash, but I can even debate that:

Clay is like Gary Barnidge, but Njoku is like Winslow/Newsome/Gates.  Njoku was just an embryo last season, without much experience in college either.  He's going to make a huge jump, and he's a BIG PLAY guy.

Josh also says that the Browns don't have anybody like McCoy.  Well, I can't fight that much.  

...Except that Duke Johnson is very similar to McCoy.  In context, McCoy was THE man in Buffalo, while Duke shared the stage with Crowell.  If you compare these two players statistics, you will see that Duke is right there with McCoy...and with Ebineezer Bell, for that matter.

And of course, Josh went no deeper into running backs, but Nick Chubb and Carlos Hyde are relevant as hardnosed downhill smashmouth runners.  These guys can halp a quarterback a lot too, and Tyrod never had them before, either.

Just to clarify, I don't know if Duke Johnson could take the pounding McCoy has taken as THE man, and I like Clay like I liked Barnidge.  These are terrific players.  I just think that Njoku is more dangerous, and Duke is right there with McCoy skill/talent-wise.

Anyway, you can debate me on some of this, but Tyrod never had a Gordon or a Landry, so that's that.

Josh ignored the respective offensive lines, and I haven't researched that much, but I think I'm safe in saying that I think the 2018 Browns big uglies are better than the 2015 Bills were (even without Big Joe).

As usual, Josh Edwards is thorough and objective, and finishes his article with an insightful and fair summary; actually mentioning C Coleman and Callaway.  Josh Edwards: I like this guy!

Bucky Brooks is another very smart guy, and he played in the NFL.  He ranked the Browns wide receivers fifth in the NFL.

I think he's wrong.

1: No, Julio Jones is not as good as Josh Gordon is.  NOBODY else is, either, no matter how much "seniority" they have.  The best wide receiver in the NFL should matter.

2: Landry vs Thielen and those guys can be debated, as Landry hasn't been a big play guy, but isn't there a place for a guy who has caught 100 passes per-season ever since he was drafted?

I mean, Bucky should survey 32 NFL quarterbacks about this before he gets into those "yards per-catch" stats, or at least look at first down catches, before he downgrades the most reliable wide receiver in the NFL.

3: Bucky went in-depth on the other teams, but not so much on the Browns (Coleman/Callaway etc).

In fairness to Bucky (again, a former player), he did say that the Browns could "move up" on this list in preseason.  He tends to rely on what he has seen already, and doesn't like to stick his neck out.

I'll take "fifth-best" from Bucky, with the asterisk.  

Hmm...is there a unit on the Browns roster that isn't top five in the NFL?  

Offensive line:  Debatable.  Definitely top ten, but we got that left tackle issue.  Tough call.

Tight end: Really in today's NFL, this is fuzzy, since so many tight ends are really just huge wide receivers who can't block well in-line.

In a fair world, guys like Clay and Witten would get their due, but they don't.

It's okay, though: Njoku and company might make the top five (certainly top 7-8) publicly, but (if you surveyed COACHES) they'll be top five easily, because Fells might be the best blocking TE in the NFL, Njoku has turned into a decent blocker, and DeValve is like Njoku (except shorter).

Running backs will be top five.

Edge-rushers top five.

Defensive tackles hmm...well top ten for sure, obviously, but there are some awesome tandems out there (like the Rams), and maybe the Bengals too.  The Browns guys are emerging, so it's a tough call.  

Linebackers top five, obviously.  Doesn't matter how it shakes out, but Schobert made the Pro Bowl last season, they just signed Kendricks, Jamie Collins will be back healthy, and they drafted Rodney Averyfield.

Cornerback top five too.  Denzel Ward was not just the best cornerback in this draft, but maybe the best MAN corner to come along in several years.  The veterans Dorsey brought in are top-notch and proven as well, and Boddy-Calhoun was one of the best nickels in the NFL.

Safety should be top five as well, provided Damarius Randall works out as expected.  Williams doesn't need to count on Jabrill Peppers at strong safety, since Rodney Kindredfield has already proven himself a terrific starter there.

Top five maybe.  Top ten for sure.

...ok I gotta stop here.  I can't get into special teams.  Sorry.  But top 15 easy: Returners out the yinyang plus athletes and stuff.

Oh yeah quarterback! AHAH! NOT top five, and maybe not even top ten there you go!  We're all gonna die!!!






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