Monday, June 4, 2018

Kendricks, Avery, DePodesta, Opportunism, and the Browns

I was fooled by all the yawning and snoring in re Mychal Kendricks, and didn't dig deep enough as rumors of his potential signing swirled (I doubted that he would sign with the Browns).

Now that I have looked deeper, I'm really excited about this guy!

I can see the Eagles releasing him, as they're under cap pressure, but I'm still kinda baffled by his dirt-cheap one-year contract.  Did Dorsey offer him a respectable long-term contract that he turned down?  Why just one year?  Why so cheap?  What, beyond having a potty-mouth, is wrong with this guy?

Possibly, the one-year deal is just to lock him down for now, and they're still negotiating. This is sometimes done, where an agent trusts a GM to deal in good faith; the longer-term deal negates the one-year deal, and in the end, the player makes his money.

That is risky, though.  What if a compromise can't be reached?  Then the player is badly underpaid for one season, and is back to square one the next season.

...it just does not compute.

We can suspect that Kendricks took one year so that he could "test the waters" and see how he liked his new team...but 3.5 mil?  Are you telling me the Raiders didn't offer him more than that?

Of course, due to the People's Republic of California's state income tax, the Raiders could have offered more and still not matched the Browns.

Well, skip it.  Anyway Kendricks will be a Cleveland Brown this season, and we should give John Dorsey a big back-slap for it.

Kendricks is actually one of the 9-12 best outside linebackers in the NFL (and there are 64 starters okay?)

After (belatedly) doing my 10-20 minutes of due diligence, I've learned that he is a total, real linebacker who can cover (well), stuff (nay blow up in the backfield) the run, and blitze.

Check that link: See that almost 40" vertical? 29 reps?  10.6 inch long jump?  On Pat Kirwan's explosive scale, Mychal Kendricks is way up there!  But a sub-4.5 40 at near 240 lbs, and a sub-6.7 3-cone holeee....

Oh!  I GET IT now!  He's only 5'11" tall! That explains everything!  

Seriously, though, Kendricks sounds a lot like Genard Avery.  This is a great fit, as Kendricks can show Avery how it's done (for short guys).

No knock on Christian Kirksey here.  Kirksey is a pretty good linebacker.  But Kendicks is the wave of the present, and Avery the wave of the future.  They are bigger, faster, better in coverage, and make more splash plays.

Kirksey is a top 30 (or so) OLB.  Kendricks (and trust me) Avery are better than that.

Short linebackers: Even a lot of the real pros don't seem to understand that "length" isn't everything in an outside linebacker:

In the box, outside linebackers need "length" to hand-fight 6'5"-6'7" offensive linemen and tight ends, and to cover those tight ends.  So they disqualify short guys.

Kendricks was an exception, because he was considered an inside linebacker.  James Harrison had to scratch and claw to merely exist in the NFL after not having been drafted at all.  Avery is in between: Drafted in the fifth round in a deeper linebacker draft, and a different market.

But these talent evaluators have forgotten a few laws of science here:

1: "Low man wins" in leverage.

2: The lower your center of gravity, the quicker you can be.  The shorter your legs are, the quicker you can stop, start, and change directions.  You get this, right?

3: If you run 4.5 at 240 lbs, that's exceptional.

Former linebacker John Dorsey and Doctor Williamstein seem to have found a flaw in the market here.

Now, I gotta tell you: James Harrison was extremely strong for his size, but didn't compare to Kendricks or Avery as an athlete.

Granted, Harrison played in a 3-4, and this is a 4-3, but look at all those plays Harrison made in coverage! 

Everything Harrison did, Kendricks and Avery can do.  Harrison may (or may not) be a better edge-rusher, but that's all he might (or might not) have on these two quicker, faster players.

Dorsey just drafted one short linebacker in the fifth round, and signed another for 3.5 mil.  What a difference an inch makes!

Seriously, I find this funny, especially since a bunch of people are spazzing out over the Mayfield pick mainly because he's one inch shorter than Rodgers, only two inches taller than Wilson (and Sipe), a half inch taller than Brees, the same height as Taylor oh good grief are you kidding me?

Look at Denzel Ward! 5'11" is "undersized" for a cornerback now!?!

I sincerely believe that Paul DePodesta, who remains in the basement (but on the payroll) is influencing a lot of these moves.

As I have, he has detected a "length"-fixation/bias among NFL talent evaluators, and has advised Dorsey to look for short guys who kick ass, because they are DIRT-CHEAP in this market.

Gregg Williams certainly has a voice (and Dorsey listens), but DePodesta is more than an egghead-geek, as most of you people find it convenient to label the box you mentally stuffed him in:

Paul DePodesta played wide receiver in college.  He was an athlete, and things like leverage, "length", etc are not abstract concepts to him.  

I'm pretty sure that John Dorsey quickly found this out, and that this is why DePodesta is still here.

DePodesta isn't a "football guy", but he can argue with football guys (including Dorsey) and get them to listen:

"Everybody is fixated on height and reach, so we need to scoop up short studs cheap right now.  We also need to adapt our own priorities to Tyrod Taylor and Todd Haley.  Rather than reach for the next Joe Thomas, we need a left tackle who might start there immediately, and who, if he doesn't, can start elsewhere, for the time being.

"Carlos Hyde prospered in a zone-blocking scheme, and Todd Haley will use those schemes, unlike...nevermind but Haley will also, partly as a consequence of adapting to Taylor, Hyde, Fells, et cetera, mitigate the loss of Joe Thomas, as the his replacement will be "on an island" only 20% as often as Joe was.  Any questions?"

DePodesta remains the chief Strategy officer.  I figure the foregoing was close to the mark, and that Paul DePosta has had a strong voice in the lower rounds of this draft, and in free agent signings...and maybe on the Corbett pick.

I channelled a lot of my own thoughts into that, of course, but then I was trained to think with my brain, and to be objective, so I just can't help myself.

Paul Depodesta is smarter than me in most ways, but we have thinking with our brains in common.  I bet I nailed this.

No knock on Dorsey here, by any means:

I'll go into Dorsey's (damn good) draft/free agency history later, but (as you will see in three years) this one might well be his best (I mean igoring Mayfield and Ward) offseason ever.

I shouldn't even have ignored Mayfield, since I KNOW that Paul was pounding the table for him (obviously).

If you think Mayfield, Avery, Kendricks, and Ward aren't all studs, you need a brain transplant.  And aside from Mayfield, Dorsey got the rest with his spare change!

That's DePodesta!

Pearls before swine ok nevermind

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