I broke down and paid for PFF again, so I can dig up player rankings (from 2017).
Jamie Collins graded out very low, but then he didn't play much, and when he did, he was dinged.
At cornerback, TJ Carrie and Briean Boddy-Calhoun were neck-and neck, ranked 21st and 24th respectively (both a little over 84 overall and vs the pass).
But EJ Gaines was 13th at 86.6 (86.5 coverage, 66.3 vs run). i wonder where Denzel Ward will rank...
Mychal Kendricks ranked the highest of all Browns players at ninth among linebackers. 86 overall, 87 vs the run, 76.8 vs the pass, and 68 as a passrusher.
Joe Schobert ranked 32nd (77.4 overall, 81.6 vs run, 70.7 vs pass, and 48.6 passrushing).
Everybody thinks that John Dorsey flushed analytics down the terlet when he came here, but analytics sure seem to be influencing his decisions. Kendricks is better than Schobert, and Joe could be in trouble here.
Kirksey ranked 52nd overall (59.6 overall, 69.7 vs run, 53.3 vs pass, 52.2 blitzing). Kendricks will challenge him, as well. He beats these two players in every category, and a healthy Jamie Collins will too...not to mention Genard Avery.
I couldn't even find Josh Gordon, so I assume he just hasn't played enough games yet to be ranked.
Carlos Hyde? 50th among running backs. 50th. 51.5 overall, 76.7 running, 34.9 yes 34.9 catching, 28.2 in pass protection, 60 in run-blocking.
Meanwhile, Duke Johnson ranked 15th. 82.5 overall, 74.4 running, 90.1 receiving (wow), 57.1 in pass pro, 60 run-blocking.
Those who expect Carlos Hyde to keep Nick Chubb parked on the bench just don't get it. I have some renewed hope that they'll find a way to hold onto Duke, too.
As I mentioned, Rodney Kindredfield was 28th among safeties with 82.1 overall, 75.6 vs the run, 75.6 yes 75.6 in coverage, and 87.3 vs the run.
I couldn't even find Jabrill Peppers, but assume he ranked really low.
Jarvis Landry ranked 19th at 82. 83 receiving, and 67.5 run-blocking (that's impressive).
Some of the other rankings were disappointing, like Njoku at 26th with a 69. 74.5 receiving, 61.7 run blocking, and 44 in pass protection.
However, he was a rookie, and the 61.7 run-blocking grade was surprisingly high for mainly a pass-catching tight end.
I didn't find Seth DeValve yet, but he's not the same as Njoku. Njoku has more length to him, and DeValve has a reach disadvantage trying to block edge guys.
I've heard they'll be using him more at H-back this season.
Why is anybody surprised that Ward worked with the first team last week? Like I said, he's not a quarterback!
Hue Jackson warned us not to "read anything into" Mayfield working with the second team, but if you've been reading this blog, you know you should read into it that Mayfield is a better quarterback than Drew Stanton.
Mayfield himself has been a model of humility and a good soldier. He's not nearly as happy with his progress as Hue Jackson is.
I believe this is genuine. It's who this kid is. He's his own worst critic, and is never satisfied. He doesn't want to be as good as Rodgers or Brady, but better.
This mentality was a big reason why he was the first overall pick. A lot of you people still don't get this, but the most important part of a quarterback is the part between his ears (why does nobody get that?)
Most of the comments I read in the various peanut galleries are pretty reasonable, but some permabashers simply can't change.
"Don't worry Baker, you'll be throwing interceptions towards Josh Gordon in no time" huh?
"Dahh...Baker has never throwed to anybody as stoned as Gordon yuk-yuk"
USA Today and ESPN did their offseason grades, and gave the Browns a B instead of an A because well...they're the Browns!?
Mary Kay did a nice overview of the last public OTA session, and says Tyrod Taylor is piling up touchdown passes against Gregg Williams' defense.
The dominant culprit here is Jarvis Landry, and he's scoring as often from outside the red zone as he is from the two.
I've written that Landry won't be the top dog here, as he was in Miami, and can't approach his ungodly 100 catch-per-season average here, but am starting to back off on that a little.
He's clearly Taylor's top target right now, and he's averaging a WHOLE lot more than 8.6 yards per-catch too. And you don't expect a guy under 6' tall to be a red zone threat, but it looks like Landry is.
I'm not concerned about Gregg's defense here, because there is no pass rush, or even an offensive line.
Most of the secondary is new to the team, and they're not "timing up" hits or collisions to knock balls loose or get picks, either. The passing game should have the edge at this point.
But I still like that Gregg Williams makes the defense "drop and give him six" squat-thrusts or whatever to punish his players for losing the session.
Coverage of the OTAs is very shallow, so I have to fill in some blank spaces here (that's my disclaimer):
It sounds like Tyrod Taylor is doing great, and has been reasonably accurate and on-time on his throws.
Baker Mayfield himself seems quite objective about the fact that for the moment, Tyrod is better than he is.
I sensed that about this kid, even when he said "That's not me. I'm trying to start."
Baker Mayfield is not arrogant, at all. He's a short two-time walk-on, so of course he has a chip on his shoulder, but he also said that having to sit out one season after his transfer to Oklahoma was probably good for him.
Mayfield is a lot smarter and mature than many of you people think. And many of you people think he's not because of a very, very superficial resemblance between him and Johnny Manziel.
Shame on you. And they let you vote?
Don't get me wrong here: I'm on the Tyrod Taylor train here!
Taylor ranked 14th among quarterbacks at PFF at 83 (79.7 pass, 86.5 run), barely behind Matt Stafford, but ahead of Dak Prescott, Goff, Dalton, Bortles, Carr, Newton, Flacco etc.
PFF does all it can to make "supporting casts" irrelevant in their grades, so we shouldn't expect Tyrod to shoot up the charts now that he has Landry, Gordon, Njoku etc to throw to, but he's certainly a top fifteen quarterback, and that's a huge upgrade, right?
PFF can't factor everything in, though. They can't be having stats like "in offenses which run over 45% of the time", for example.
Most likely, Tyrod will rank higher in 2018, because Todd Haley will run more than Hue Jackson did, and the defense is just stacked. Tyrod can be a "game manager" for a change, facing less pressure (pass rush, down/distance, score) than he did in 2017.
Baker Mayfield is being dissed as a running threat based on his 4.8-plus 40 time. That's stupid, but there's no denying that Tyrod Taylor is a lot scarier on the ground.
Taylor and Mayfield "overlap" a lot, but for Taylor, Todd Haley will exploit this player's unusual athleticism more.
Business is business, and you pinkos won't like hearing this, but
1: This is Tyrod's last contract year, and he will probably command over 22 mil in 2019. There is no way the Browns can pay that, so he's a GMF.
2: Tyrod is "expendable" in 2018. Baker Mayfield will catch up to Tyrod quickly, and be ready to step in early in the season.
3: This means that Haley will take more risks with Tyrod than he ever would with Mayfield. He will have him keep and run the ball more.
But you comrades should relax, since Taylor himself will love it. He's auditioning for his next contract, and wants to do what he does best.
A few pundits (Brinson for one) think the 2018 Browns have a shot at sneaking into a wild card slot in the playoffs.
While local permabashers are "holding the line" with inane comments, the national guys can't deny Dorsey, Haley, or what they've done in this offseason.
How can a team with these coaches, and this much talent, and these quarterbacks not win?
A few predictions here:
1: Carlos Hyde was signed and overpaid before Nick Chubb was drafted. Nick Chubb is the better player, and will end up with a lot more snaps than Hyde.
2: Nick Chubb will catch at least 23 passes.
3: Denzel Ward will be a top ten cornerback as a rookie.
4: Larry Ogunjobi (ranked 34 by PFF at 82; 83.6 vs the run, 72.4 as a passrusher, and 61.2 in coverage) will get more snaps than any other interior defensive lineman, and will get at least 3.5 sacks and 9 tackles-for-losses.
5: Gregg Williams will run all sorts of fronts, but will try to keep Garrett, Ogbah, Ogunjobe, Collins, Kendricks, and (yes) Rodney Kindredfield on the field together as much as he can.
6: The Browns 2018 defense will rank in the top half in turnovers and points allowed, and in the top third in defensive scoring.
7: The Browns offense will rank in the top half in points, passing, and running yardage.
8: Jarvis Landry will average over 12 yards per-catch and score at least nine touchdowns (although he might only get like merely 80 catches).
9: Nick Chubb will outperform Carlos Hyde in both snaps and yardage, and the combined running backs will pile up over 1800 yards on the ground, and 1,000 receiving yards.
10: Regardless of if/when Baker Mayfield takes over, the Browns quarterback(s) will rank in PFF's top twelve.
11: The 2018 Browns will win at least six games.
Stuporstition has no business in analysis. When you say "it's the Browns" yet again in 2018, that's irrational.
John Dorsey is the new GM, so you could as well say "it's the Chiefs", or (moreso) "it's the Packers". Since Todd Haley is the offensive coordinator now, you might even say "it's the Steelers".
I'm so sick of the permabashers (but that's just me: I'm allergic to insanity in general).
The tough schedule:
Once again, teams at the top lose talent to the salary cap and their low draft status. Teams at the bottom can make big moves up, especially if they come up with a good quarterback (or two).
Per USA Today and ESPN, the Ravens had a better offseason (and Flacco looks great again).
But they still didn't improve as much as the Browns did, nor did the Bengals or Steelers.
Now that the Browns have a quarterback who PFF ranks over Flacco and Dalton, and Baker Mayfield, these are the facts:
The Browns have excellent coaches (now that Hue Jackson is a figurehead).
They are THE most talented team in the AFC North. Don't even start with me on the Killer B's; the respective defenses and special teams matter, ok?
Yeah yeah that offense is awesome, but get the stars out of your eyes and think with your brain.
No, I'm not predicting that the 2018 Browns will sweep the Steelers--only that you are insane if you refuse to see that they'll give the Steelers (and every other elite team) hell.
As for the Bengals and Ravens, the 2018 Browns should sweep them! They should finish at least second in the AFC North.
For those of you with Stockholm Syndrome (like maybe you, G), the law says I can't kidnap and deprogram you, so it's up to you -snap-snap- wake up!
Talent and coaching MATTER. And the Browns now have enough of both to beat any team in the NFL, including the Steelers.
Going a little deeper into coaching, if you get a ten point lead vs any of these top ten quarterbacks, you don't back off (I fear Jackson interfering with Williams and Haley here).
I go way back here: I remember Marty Schottenheimer going to the prevent-the-win defense vs a lamed John Elway in "the Drive".
I've seen a lot of similar stuff from Hue Fisher. Belichick got better after Art Modell kicked him to the curb, but at least he always knew how to "finish" games.
Todd Haley won't go all-run up-the gut, and Williams won't call off the dogs, until the game is in the bag.
This has always frustrated me, about a lot of Head Coaches (certainly including Hue Palmer):
It's not "ignoble" (or whatever) to pile up points, or to keep beating the crap out of a quarterback, until the other team has NO chance to win.
Marty's logic in creating the "Prevent Defense" made sense at first: Take away the big plays, and force the opposing offense to take short gains while burning clock-time.
But offenses rapidly adapted to it with timing patterns and YAC yards...including Elway, who was anything but a sharpshooter:
His receivers were SO open that he couldn't miss. Soft zone coverage, right?
Ah jeez don't get me started. Unless Hue interferes, Williams and Dorsey will pound the stake in when it counts.
Coaching M A T T E R S. Tomlin and Harbaugh won't "roll" Dorsey and Williams at crunch-time like they have Hue Palmer.
You might have noticed I left out Marvin Lewis.
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