Doug Lesmerisis is a terrific columnist, and I rarely find anything wrong with his analysis. (As we all know, the more you agree with me, the better you are.)
He makes an excellent point which I've made several times: Average quarterback play could win the Cleveland Browns a bunch of games in 2018.
And after what Browns fans have witnessed behind center for the last couple eons or so, an average quarterback will look like Tom Brady to us.
But I do have to nitpick Doug a little on his dismissive treatment of some of the things Zampeze, Haley, et al have said about Tyrod Taylor:
These guys have said that Tyrod is still an emerging player who can run any scheme and throw deep.
If you've read this Blog, you know that I've said some of this stuff about Taylor (in response to faulty, shallow analysis of him) long before the Browns coaches got around to it (Redundancy Alert):
1: Tyrod Taylor always had a strong arm in general, and was always capable of throwing deep. If he has a deep target, and more than 2.9 seconds to throw. If he has niether, he can't throw deep.
Now he will have Josh Gordon, and Coleman or Callaway. So he can throw deep.
2: Tyrod has never had an offensive line or receivers this good in his carreer. I can't impugn Buffalo's coaches, who I don't know that well, but he may never have had an offensive coordinator like Todd Haley, either.
You can't judge players in a vacuum, as if every team is the same. If an "average" quarterback moves on to a better team, he will usually miraculously transform into an above average quarterback, for some inexplicable reason.
So Doug's skepticism isn't justified. But other than that, it was a great article.
I read somewhere that Gregg Williams would have liked to have had Bradley Chubb, but that he wasn't very good in deep coverage, and didn't get enough interceptions. I love that guy. He's a foulmouthed hardass, but he's entertaining as hell.
Mary Kay had an unusually good "Hey Mary Kay" this week, as she mentioned how Denzel Ward and big upgrades throughout the secondary will give Garrett and Ogbah that extra fraction of a second they need to turn "hurries" into sacks.
She also (mostly) nailed the quarterback thing: Taylor should start until the Browns are knocked out of playoff contention (if they are). With nothing to lose, at that point they'll get Baker Mayfield on the field.
But she was probably wrong about Drew Stanton being the primary backup during the first four games of the season (over Mayfield).
Baker Mayfield has football OCD, and learns very quickly. A Taylor-freindly offense is a Mayfield-friendly offense, and Haley will have a core "package" of plays which Mayfield will have zeroed in on and mastered.
Mary Kay is underestimating both of them.
Baker Mayfield is here substantially because he had the right aptitute, attitude, psychology, and mentality to be an NFL quarterback. Aside from Josh Rosen, Jim Miller considers Mayfield the most "NFL-ready" quarterback in this draft class.
As Jim tried to explain, Mayfield sees the "whole field", is decisive, checks down and doesn't hesitate. While Gregg Williams' defensive backs have been messing him up sometimes so far, Miller predicted that this would happen.
But these are obstacles that he will adapt to, just as he adapted twice as a walk-on. He is mechanically perfect, and has that rare processing speed; "Once the game slows down for him, look out for this kid!"
It won't take that long, Mary Kay. Maybe it will for Darnold and Allen, but not for Mayfield.
Mary Kay said Danny Shelton would be missed, but he won't be. As she herself stated, Gregg Williams called Meder one of the best run-stuffing defensive tackles in the NFL (and PFF concurs).
Shelton was no slouch (I'm not bashing the guy), but Meder outperformed him.
I'm afraid I have to redundanationalize on Mychal Kendricks and Genard Avery some more:
I still expect them both to work at middle linebacker for awhile, until they have a handle on that position in this defense, and then get moved outside.
They'll probably practice at all three linebacker spots (and some situational roles), but ultimately, Christian Kirksey is going to be challenged.
Kirksey's PFF grade is a little over 59. He's higher vs the run, and even lower vs the pass, and he plays WIL (coverage matters here!)
Specs: Kendricks (9th ranked linebacker) at 86 overall; 87 vs the run, 76.8 in coverage.
Kirksey: (52nd ranked) at 59.6 overall; 69.7 vs the run, 53.3 in coverage.
(Schobert: 32nd ranked at 77.4 overall; 81.6 vs the run, 70.7 in coverage).
Based purely on these numbers, Kendricks is better than all these guys, but can you find the weak link?
Actually, Schobert is interesting: He trimmed down between his first and second season, and got quicker/faster. I've also learned that he was a really good basketball player. His coverage grade surprises me.
It's possible that Mychal Kendricks, who is a smart guy and an experienced veteran who could probably also be Gregg Williams' "field general", could bump Schobert to WIL and Kirksey to the trading block or bench.
However it shakes out, I hereby predict that Christian Kirksey will not be a starter in 2018, and Kendricks and Schobert will be.
Yes, Sashi Brown signed Kirksey up for four years at over 9 mil/year with 20 mil guaranteed because he had an impressive 147 tackles in 2016. But that was Brown, not Dorsey.
And things have changed. Nobody (including me) expected Joe Schobert to be as good as he was this early in his carreer.
Nobody was counting on Mychal Kendricks, let alone his embryonic clone, Genard Avery.
Christian is a solid starter, but since his extention, one undrafted free agent emerged, another was signed, and a third drafted, all of which are or will be better than he is.
Kirksey's cap hit this season is 6,200,00.00, but in 2019 it will be 2 mil more, and even more in 2020.
Christian Kirksey is probably already "on the block". John Dorsey (a former linebacker himself, perhaps a lot like Kirksey), doesn't want to pay a backup that kind of money, and will take what he can get to dump that contract.
Other changes are influencing this:
Damarius Randall is moving Jabrill Peppers closer to the line (to challenge Derrick Kindred).
In 2017, Gregg Williams couldn't run "his" defense, but now he can. That means he will delete one real linebacker and use a safetybacker (Peppers or Kindred) more often.
147 tackles in 2016 aside, the PFF numbers from 2017 don't lie: where does Kirksey fit here?
He's last (by a significant margin) in coverage, and (counting a healthy Collins) last even vs the run!
Like Danny Shelton, I like Christian Kirksey...but business is business.
On the other side of that, Ebineezer Bell is gouging for wide receiver money based on the fact that he lines up there a lot. Meanwhile, Duke Johnson, who has outperformed him as a receiver, wanted to stay here, and accepted a reasonable running back contract to do so.
As you know if you read this Blog, I had all but written Duke off once Jarvis Landry was signed, but was overjoyed that Duke was retained.
9th-best running back contract? He's earned that, and could have gouged for more, like Ebineezer Bell. But he wanted to stay here.
We can get behind guys like this! Like Joe Thomas, Duke isn't a moneygrubbing mercenary.
This is part of what Dorsey is doing right; part of the "culture change". Dorsey probably went out of his way to retain our hero.
Myles Garrett is impressing me, as he picks on athletes who avoid weaker teams and "ride coat tails", rather than welcome the challenge of coming up from the bottom.
I like Garrett more every day! I'm so glad he's here! He knew he'd take all sorts of insane bullshit when he said that stuff, but he went ahead and said it.
He's SMART! And he seems to like being a Cleveland Brown!
And Kendricks! I heard him on NFL Radio, and he said his decision to sign with the Browns was not about personal goals, but about wanting to be part of "something special" (and his role/fit in Gregg Williams' defense).
And HE's really smart too (I see a pattern here...)
Jeez it's like Dorsey used 1-31 as a selling point to attract the smartest, most competitive players (and eliminate the frontrunners).
Of course, as I mentioned, Landry and Taylor were pump-primers...
Anyway Myles Garrett was already here, but he effectively endorsed what's going on here.
Garrett is special. He's wise beyond his years. He goes against the grain without fear or apology. He makes his case like a lawyer, and doesn't care how badly he's outnumbered or what he's called or accused of. I love that guy! Myles Garrett is NOT a "Me too" guy. And he cares about stuff!
And Landry: I know he had issues with the coaches in Miami, and Dorsey overpaid him, but he still seems genuinely happy to be here, and eager to help dig our team out of the gutter.
Sashi Brown deserves a lot of credit for the cap money, draft picks, and talent, but Dorsey (wow) made the most of it, and indeed changed the "culture" too (and he still has more cap space than anybody else in the NFL!)
Dorsey has changed everything. While expecting the Steelers to beat the Browns in game one isn't unreasonable, predicting five or fewer wins for this team is insane.
And so is dismissing every ray of hope by saying "it's the Browns".
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