Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Cleveland Browns Rack First Win in 2018!

Finally, some news to talk about!  After Josh Gordon said H E. T H I N K S the Browns have the best WR corps in the NFL, I expected a lot of backlash from fans of other teams (and of course local permabashers).

But the Browns won the Twitter Poll!  According to the participants in that poll, the Browns wideouts got the most votes, the Steelers were second, the Falcons third, and the Vikings fourth.

Naturally, there are a lot of dumb people out there, and you can tell by looking at who wins a lot of elections.  Really, all that poll does is provide evidence that the unwashed masses are taking the 2018 Browns seriously.

But is Josh right?

I think it's really close, actually.

I believe that Josh Gordon is the best.  Antonio Brown is close, but he's a much different player, more comparable to Jarvis Landry.  He catches more passes, mostly short and intermediate.

The Gordon/Landry one-two combo is also probably the best, as well, and they complement eachother perfectly.

Most Steelers fans will disagree with both those paragraphs, and have a lot of ammo to throw at me.

Juju Smith-Schuster is no joke, and can take the lid off a defense opposite AB himself.  He was just a rookie last season, and the sky is the limit for him.

If not for the other guys on the Browns roster, including Corey Coleman, Callaway, and the underrated rookie Ratley, I might even call it a tie between the Steelers wideouts and the Browns.

I know I know, the Falcons are nothing to sneeze at, but those fans will never admit that Gordon is better than Brown, or Landry than Sanu...but they are.

And just as I'm excluding Ebineezer Bell as a Steelers wide receiver, I'm excluding Duke Johnson (who in point of fact outperformed him in that role), and no other team has guys like that.

More on Landry:  Per Mary Kay, so far, Landry is outside in two wide-receiver sets, and in the slot (with Coleman outside) in 3-wides.

I was apparently fulla crap when I declared Landry "strictly a slot guy", especially since Tyrod Taylor raved about his catch radius.

(Again, while Tyrod is probably technically wrong, he is the real expert when it comes to "if I put it in his zip code, he catches it.")

New topic: Linebackers Mychal Kendricks and Genard Avery are uncannily similar.  This could have something to do with why Avery only signed up here for one season.

Ignore the fifth round LABEL on Avery, and stick to college production and combine/pro day numbers.

Mychal Kendricks was probably a priority target for Gregg Williams all along, and so, probably, was Avery.

Mychal might price himself out of the Browns market in 2018, but Avery will return with a season under his belt in 2019.  

Some have suggested that the Browns might go with four linebackers in 2018.  That's possible, but only intermittently, and it will rarely show up as an actual 3-4.

In fact, it could be a 2-4 nickel...wow with Garrett, Ogbah, Collins, and Kendricks?  Very interesting!

Getting into the weeds here: Given the personnel Gregg Williams has, four down linemen should remain a base.  He has the defensive linemen (and depth) to run that all day long, and vs any offense.

He can one-gap all four, or use one two-gap guy like everybody else does.  With these linebackers, Peppers, and/or Rodney Kindredfield, he can...

Nevermind but Gregg Williams now has a very deep defense, but it's deepest in the front four and at cornerback and strong safety.

None of the real linebackers excel in coverage, including Collins.  Kirksey was pretty bad, in reality (yet Tony Grossi doesn't think the PFF 76-plus coverage-graded Kendricks can unseat Kirksey...because of his inconsistent coverage.........)

They can all stop the run, and most can blitze outside or inside.  Collins can put his hand in the dirt.  

But Kindred can do all that plus cover (Call PFF if you want to correct them), and everybody assumes Jabrill Peppers will be better than him.

Boddy-Calhoun is currently the third safety in "nickel" defenses.

Not having witnessed the workouts myself, I can't be definitive here, but here's two possibilities with that:

1: The reporters don't know nickel from dime, and Calhoun backs off and is replaced by another corner over the slot in DIME defenses, or 

2: Gregg Williams has him backed off and playing zone in the nickel now, because he was the nickel cornerback (the 5th defensive back) in nickels anyway.

I lean toward number one, ie bad punditry.  Gregg just got ahold of a BUNCH of cover-corners, and in the DIME, uses one of those guys on the slot guy instead, because Boddy-Calhoun made some big plays last season vs the run, as a passrusher, etc in 2017.  This kid just has a great nose for the ball, and his being a microbe doesn't seem to matter (Calhoun almost reminds me of Felix Wright).

In reality (assuming Peppers works out somewhere near as expected), Gregg Williams will run a lot of dimes this season.

1: 3-wides are almost the base defense in the NFL.  The Steelers and Bengals use them a lot.

2: "Wing" tight ends are all the rage, and two-tight end sets are the latest copycat fad.

3:  In general, NFL offenses in 2018 will be trying to spread out defenses with mismatch-seeking extra receivers, rendering stacked boxes impossible, and using the gaps thus created to get yardage on the ground.

Williams has to try to stay ahead of these trends.  "Big nickel" is now commonly recognized, but it looks to me like Williams is building a "Big Dime".

This isn't new (for Williams): For a long time, Gregg has used a safetybacker, and a free safety (sometimes) 20-plus yards off the line.

Gregg made the most of what he had in 2017, and in my opinion did a great job (proving how adaptable he is).

In 2018, thanks to both Sashi Brown and John Dorsey, he might well have all the tools he needs: 

He has THE best man corner in this draft class, and two more behind him.  He can "man up" on the outside (see many earlier posts; reference Dixon/Minnifield it's critical).

He has a bunch of passrushers; inside and outside, on the defensive line and with the linebackers.

He (probably) has a good free safety.

He has a lot of team speed on defense, along with players with great instincts.  He can take more risks now.

2-3, 3-2, 4-1, whatever: Gregg will always "send" at least four, and more often five, and if it's a dime, that just means the fifth guy will be unblocked and extra-fast.

The bottom line for Gregg Williams (or any great offensive or defensive coordinator) is to 

1: Identify your best players, and figure out how to keep them on the field AMAP (with your Division rivals and their offenses in mind, of course).

2: Pick out your best situational guys/rotational/specialized players, and find ways for them to get your core studs off the field by using them (and giving them experience; developing them).

Right now, Williams' "core" guys are Garrett, Ogbah, Ogunjobi, Collins, Kendricks (yes Kendricks), Schobert, Ward, Kindred, Boddy-Calhoun, and (fingers crossed) Randall.

In case you weren't counting, that's nine players.  Peppers will probably prove himself, but has NOT as yet.  Nor will he plant Kindred on the bench, even if he does.

The "situational" players include Nassib, Brantley, Coley, Chris Smith, Kirksey (deal with it) and Avery (deal with that too).

Cornerback is different, as Gaines and Carey are both very good, upper-echelon starters: One will win a starting slot, and be a core player (you just can't "rotate" cornerbacks).

Poor Gregg Williams.  He's stuck with too much talent.

No Participation Trophies here:

Williams will find a way to keep at least seven of his "core" guys on the field on every single down, and he'll use 4-7 other guys more to keep them rested and healthy than for any other reason.

Gregg Williams can now adapt to any offense he faces.  He can run any front he needs to, to exploit any offensive vulnerability, and mask any of his own.

This defense WILL be top ten in 2018, and should be in the top four.

Laugh at me now but achieve sentience later.




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