Josh Allen definitely made an impression on me with his second half performance in the Senior Bowl. You have to take this seriously. He not only threw two immaculate bucket passes for touchdowns, but completed most of his passes.
Baker Mayfield didn't do well, but Mike White lit it up too, and this 5th round projection, Kyle Lauletta, stole the show with 192 yards and three TDs.
These three certainly helped themselves, but it's one piece of the puzzle.
Nobody is going to care about Mayfield's bad game. Not with what he's done in his career. The Branch Allenians will proclaim Josh Allen a lock for first overall now---not so fast, for the same reason in reverse.
Mike White and Lauletta will probably jump up a round or even two, however. These two really proved something in this game!
Unfortunately, the Cleveland Browns aren't one of the teams that can make anybody but Darnold, Rosen, Allen (I guess...)or Mayfield their top targets...uh...I don't think...
I mean, that's what everybody says, right?
Let's go outside that box and actually think with our brains, shall we?
This offseason is unique and perhaps unprecedented for quarterbacks. In addition to this flood of draftable quarterbacks who project as NFL starters, you have two of three Viking quarterbacks, Cousins, Smith, Tyrod Taylor, and maybe the great AJ McCarron flooding the market as well.
Draft-wise, I remember last season, many talent guys said that none of the quarterbacks (including Watson) belonged above the bottom third of the first round. The year before that, niether Goff nor Wentz even belonged IN the first round.
Don't shoot the messenger. I thought it was stupid at the time and said so.
Anyway, this season it's the opposite. Ask any ten scouts who they like best, and you might get four or more different answers, and each of them will tell you they're worthy of the first overall pick.
So how many teams need quarterbacks? The Giants need Eli Manning Jr., but might or might not use their second overall pick on him. The Colts might trade out of their third overall pick to a quarterback-hungry team, but expect Andrew Luck to return healthy themselves.
The Broncos definitely need one, but might go with Tyrod Taylor (they have exceptional offensive weapons and a still-good defense, with weaknesses on their offensive line. Taylor could be just what the doctor ordered for them. Elway could trade down and still get a stud offensive lineman, and still nab a quarterback for the future if they want later.)
I can't go through every draft slot here, but in general, those teams drafting in the bottom third don't need quarterbacks. The Steelers and Saints are two exceptions, and now so are the Patriots...
Damn this is getting complicated! I don't envy John Dorsey. Unless he uses one or four on a quarterback, he's taking a risk.
For argument's sake, let's say he knows he has Alex Smith, and that he can extend (or concievably franchise or tender him).
This makes "pro readiness" irrelevant in the draft, so he can prioritize talent and upside. (For you Branch Allenians, by the way, Dorsey already has Kizer, with most of a season's worth of NFL experience, entering only his second season. These two quarterbacks might as well be clones).
It is remotely possible that Dorsey thinks that two or three quarterbacks have what he wants (White and Falk could be two), and will be available low in the first round. If he likes the menu enough, he can take what he gets (and trade up for the last one on his list if he needs to).
That was mainly to try to pry you out of your MKC box and consider alternatives objectively.
Depending on how these quarterbacks rise and fall as the combine and Pro Days come and go, this situation will change a whole lot, but look:
Luke Falk, Mason Rudolph, and (I think) Lamar Jackson were considered by some first round prospects even last season, and most of them were ranked above Mitch Trubisky. Now Josh Allen, Rosen, Darnold, and Mayfield have elbowed them aside.
Well, do you realize I just listed SEVEN quarterbacks here? There are only 32 picks in the first round, ok? Whoever signs Bridgewater, Taylor, or possibly McCarron probably won't draft a QB in the first round (I left out Cousins because they will be QB-hunting whether they transition him or not).
In the box thinking says you have to zero in on one quarterback, and regard the rest of them as a buncha bumbs.
Most years, it actually works out that way, as high first rounders succeed at a much higher rate. But (read this three times, slowly) this isn't most years.
As you know, I want Baker Mayfield. The hell with his height and history, he's got "it" in spades. But wasn't Falk almost as good in the Senior Bowl practices? Didn't Mike White tear up the Senior Bowl game?
Listen to me: Eli Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Rottenburgers, Wilson, Goff, Wentz, Newton: Could you tolerate the least of these as your quarterback?
Well, we could well be looking at all those guys in this one draft!!!
Mayfield looks like Brees to me, but if you twisted my arm I could make do with Big Ben or Goff DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
No doubt, quarterback is by far the most important position in football, but let's not go overboard just because the Browns haven't had one for 20 years, ok?
Can you name the Georgia quarterback who just "beat" Baker Mayfield in the Rose Bowl, or the Alabama QB who won the Championship? Joe Flacco won a Superbowl. Big Ben won one in his rookie season, and he SUCKED. Alex Smith has a weak playoff history, but if you blame HIM for it, you need a brain transplant. Wilson won one. Newton didn't. Brees won one, but that's it. His fault?
Can you blame anything on Aaron Rodgers?
Jim McMahon won a Superbowl. I could go on and on with this, but the REST OF THE TEAM MATTERS TOO!
Still with me here? Imnsh opinion, Josh Allen is not in play here, but Darnold and Mayfield are, at one and four. However, it's also possible, in this specific draft, that John Dorsey thinks he can nab a very talented quarterback later.
He could trade down, perhaps multiple times, and still nail down one of the quarterbacks on his list, while piling up future high draft picks (you know, per DePodesta's crazy "moneyball" plan?)
He could do this and still load up with Joe Thomas II, Laquon Barkley, AND that super-defensive back (or an elite edge-rusher).
...You still don't get it. In the last draft, or the 2019 draft, quarterbacks in this draft would project a lot higher than they do in this one. In this draft, guys like Luke Falk project into the second or even third round!
...is any of this sinking in?
I assume not. Well, maybe Dorsey will save you guys from stroking out by just taking Darnold or Mayfield first or fourth, as he might indeed think one of these guys is just plain that much better than the other guys.
I'm just trying to make you T H I N K. Personally, I think Mayfield is just plain THE best QB in this draft (better than Darnold).
I think he's a badass version of Drew Brees. He's also the closest thing to a sure thing in this draft.
...but if I could load up on ancillary talent and future picks, I could settle for the next Goff or Big Ben or whatever...just sayin.
Let me try one last time here: In 2018, it's raining quarterbacks. You don't neccessarily use a top five pick on a quarterback this year, because there will be franchise potential in the second, or even third round!
...yeah I hear ya. Well, I tried.
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