Friday, January 5, 2018

Reality, Obectivity, Rationality, and the Browns

This is great because among the people I get to call knuckleheads and hockey pucks today are my clan.  By that I mean the male members of my extended family🤔.

Without naming names, first up is "The Browns need a safety in the worst way!":

Now, you could have left out the last part of that sentence and not get clobbered for it, but as usual you had to go overboard:

1:Kai Nacua and Jabrill Peppers were both rookies.  Jabrill had actually not played free safety in college, either, and was literally learning a new position.  He is more physically gifted than most starting free safeties.
It is idiotic to assume that Nacua and Peppers will not take the typical, predictable "big leap" that most players do upon graduating from their R O O K I E seasons.

2: Gregg Williams ran cover one, cover two, and cover three among others.  Peppers was not in the deep middle much over 20% of the time.  If a true center fielder is not on this team as you ass ume, it's still less of a priority for Gregg Williams than it is for you.

3: Peppers and Nacua did not suck, and they made progress over the course of their first, rookie, NFL seasons.  I haven't seen the PFF numbers yet, but I'd expect them to be around average, and higher in the last four games of their first, rookie, NFL seasons.

Next up, "The secondary sucks": Well, if you look at raw stats and decide stuff based on that...and ignore pressures, sacks, game situations, you could leap to that conclusion in order to avoid thinking more than is comfortable.

Sorry.  Not around me.

1: Jason McCourty was among the highest-rated cornerbacks in the NFL.  Brien Boddy-Calhoun also graded out quite well.  And allow me to introduce you to this Derrick Kindred guy.  I know you forgot he existed and will be back in 2018 a couple weeks after he hit IR, but up until then he was to strong safeties what McCourty was to cornerbacks.  If you're counting, that's three players, if you keep Peppers separate.

2: The Browns offense found ways to make sure the Browns had to play from behind for most of the year.  That meant that opposing offenses had their whole playbooks available to them, because even Williams couldn't pin his ears back and risk the run.  Opposing quarterbacks had more time after Ogbah and Collins bit the dust as well, and the raw stats don't separate linebacker from DB coverage either.

3: Emmanuel Ogbah and Jamie Collins joined Derrick Kindred on IR.

Now, you can buttress your ill-founded case on the poor individual performance of Jamar Taylor if you want, but you can't sensibly grade this secondary off one player STICK A FORK IN YOURSELF YOU'RE DONE.

Fortunately, Black Cloud wasn't in on the textfest, or I'd have a sload more crap to shovel.

My clan sort of alerted me to this Saquon Barkley dude as a prospect at 4th overall (assuming a quarterback is drafted first).

Running back should not be a need for the Cleveland Browns, but thanks to the fact that Isaiah Crowell will take LESS money to get tf away from Hue Lewis, it actually is.

But need aside, the consensus among all the biggest experts ranks Barkley as the first or second best player in this draft, and Daniel Jeremiah sees him as the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson (better than Zeke Elliott).

Here is one of many (unvetted) early scouting reports on Barkley.  Unlike Isaiah Crowell, Barkley fits Hue Fisher's "my way or the highway" offense as well as he does a zone-blocking scheme.

With his already refined receiving skills (among other things), Barkley looks like a bigger, faster, and even quicker Duke Johnson.  As we have seen, Duke has been highly productive under Hue Lewis, and it's reasonable to assume that Hue wouldn't waste him like he wasted Crowell.

Barkley is a home-run threat in a way that Duke or Crow are not.  If THIS guy gets behind the linebackers with 60 yards to go, it's less likely that he can be overtaken from behind.

Rumor has it that the Giants will draft Barkley second overall, and that's possible.  They'll be getting Beckham back and have a weapon at tight end, and could make some noise in 2018.

However, those who think that Eli Manning will outlast his brother are delusional, and the Giants are stuck with Wentz and the Eagles, and the Cowboys, and a smart GM takes the quarterback, since (in reality), the addition of Barkley in 2018 would NOT win that division, and probably not a wild card berth...but would guarantee drafting outside the top 10 in 2019.

The next New York Giants "window" is not 2018, and might not re-open before Eli Manning retires or is pounded out.  The Eagles and Cowboys are just warming up, and that GM has to deal with that.  He needs Manning's understudy right now, while he has the chance, because Barkley would guarantee he'll never get another one.

For that matter, what tf is wrong with Orleans Darkwa!?!

But I digress.  I just think that kneejerk thoughtless spastic speculations aside, the Browns drafting Barkley 4th overall is more likely than not, and I concur with my clan (well maybe except for Black Cloud, who will compare him to Trent Richardson or something when he gets around to it) 

Now, with all this massive cap space available to Ken Dorsey, all the pundits are eager to spend it all ASAP.

The most common/dumbest speculation is Ebenneezer Belle.  Prior to this season, Belle refused to accept a contract extension from the Pittsburgh Steelers which amounted to starting quarterback money.

How much now, after the season he just had? 20 million/year? 30?  50?  Who cares right? Just pay him whatever he wants right?

Why tf would you bend over for this much older, more beat up player, when you can draft Barkley (and lock him up for five years) for a fraction of Ebeneezer's cost!?!

Some of the other suggested free agent targets are pretty good, as they're not washed up overpriced "names", and are young enough to fit Paul DePodesta's long-term plan (which Dorsey is logically forced to follow).

The best two are Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith.  (One clown said Case Keenum.  Actually I like that too.

The biggest two reasons for the Browns going 0-16 were the quarterbacks and Hue Fisher.  That is a fact...well okay the third reason behind those was youth/inexperience, which will TAKE CARE OF ITSELF DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

Right now, I guarantee you that Ken Dorsey is pressuring Hue Lewis to hire an offensive coordinator from the Reid (Holmgren/Walsh) coaching tree, or even from the Shanahan area, and will be pushing to give the new guy as much authority as possible on-paper.

This is the ONLY way that Smith or Cousins would sign with the Browns, I'm telling you!

Hue Fisher isn't an idiot.  He knowns he's hanging on by a thread, and that if he doesn't cooperate, Haslam can effectively end his Head Coaching carreer despite his (imo stupid) guarantee that he'd be retained.

There IS hope here!  If the new offensive "playcaller" is actually an offensive coordinator who is adaptable, or at least not allergic to West Coast principles, Smith and Cousins would consider signing with the Browns.

Trading for Alex Smith is not an option, by the way.  He's going into the last year of his contract, and a team dumb enough to trade for him would either have to rent him for one season or extend him off that 20 mil-plus anchor.

KC has cap issues, and Dorsey drafted Mahomes because of them.  Everybody in the NFL knows that KC will have to cut Alex Smith, and will wait for the auction.

Cousins is only a little different.  The Redskins imo mishandled him, and are out of options.  His salary is already rediculous, even given his production.  And he's probably disgruntled over being franchise-tagged twice, rather than signed long-term for less than it's already cost the team.

It's possible that he'll re-sign with the Redskins, but certain that he will explore every other option first.

Now, try to comprehend this.  Read this very slowly:

If the 2017 Browns had had a Cousins or Smith at quarterback, along with a flexible, adaptable offensive coordinator, they would have won a LOT more games.

Gordon would have actually caught more passes, since more would be catchABLE.  Ditto Njoku, DeValve, and (yes) Coleman.  And by the way, who among these have you decided are NOT exceptional players? 

I need to point out Rashard Higgins here btw: He's improved a LOT, and even if you still think he's "just a guy", how tf can you call wide receiver a NEED?

Pearls before swine.  

It's not that complicated, ok?  If you are open, you are open.  If the pass is uncatchable or doesn't come, it's uncatchable or doesn't come.  If you are a rookie, you are still learning (and making mistakes).

It's amazing how pundits and box-score warriors brush all of this, plus youth, recency, coaching etc aside so they can call the Browns secondary a train wreck, and declare free safety an urgent need, and treat Collins, Kindred, and Ogbah as if they never existed...

I'm too kerphlemp to go on...talk amongst yourselves




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