As we've already heard from my clan, a lot of Browns fans think the 2018 Browns need to replace about 43 players.
When Ken Dorsey was first hired, Mary Kay Cabbott couldn't wait to predict that he would release a whole bunch of players.
Let's start with the safeties: At free, those were Jabrill Peppers and Kai Nacua. As I've noted, Gregg Williams runs every coverage there is, and this high center-fielder "angel" position is played less than 25% of the time.
Peppers underperformed early at the unfamiliar position, but gradually improved with repetition. Nacua never even got an opportunity until late in the season, when Peppers was injured.
He played well enough while filling in that Williams kept using him after Peppers' return.
Peppers didn't get his first interception until his last game. Overall, their efforts were unacceptable. Nobody denies that. But you can't base a player's projected performance on his rookie season (unless he's a running back).
Players make big leaps over the offseasons between their first and second, and then their second and third seasons. These "leaps" continue after that, but the growth curve flattens out.
For some of my peeps and perhaps Mary Kay, the book is already closed on Nacua and Peppers, and they're anxious to replace them, just when Williams and company are expecting them to return as much-improved veteran players.
While an Ed Reed would be an undeniable upgrade, free safety will not be considered a priority need. Peppers is bigger, quicker, faster, and even smarter than most NFL free safeties, and Gregg Williams is not being "stubborn".
At strong safety, Derrick Kindred will return from IR. He was having an All-Pro season when he went down with sacks, tackles for losses, and even in coverage. He was one of the brightest spots on the whole defense.
Justin Currie is also a pretty good player, especially in coverage. The Browns don't need a strong safety at all.
Now if you look at Ourlad's Depth Chart, you'll see that safeties are safeties (no "f" or "s" prefix). That's partly because Gregg Williams can and will use whichever coverage schemes he has to based on his personnel.
Jason McCourty was among the best cornerbacks in the NFL, but he's almost 32. Brien Boddy-Calhoun, entering his third season, is certainly a proven winner. Howard Wilson was drafted last season, but was placed on IR before he could take the field. He was highly rated, and will have his opportunity in 2018.
Micheal Jordan was a pleasant surprise, but Jamar Taylor was just plain terrible. He's a veteran, and has no excuses. HE could be released.
You can't have too many cornerbacks, and Wilson has yet to prove anything, so cornerback will be a priority. Given the free agent market, a high-profile veteran could well be signed, along with at least one more in the draft.
The secondary overall looked worse than it was because Ogbah and Collins were lost, Garrett missed time, and opposing offenses were playing from ahead. Quarterbacks exploited soft coverage late with quick-hitters underneath.
The secondary didn't suck.
Picking on the linebackers isn't worth addressing. The Browns are all set there. Gregg Williams uses safeties at linebacker and sometimes uses one or two linebackers, and that matters.
Some will identify EDGE as a "pressing need". That's overstating it, but certainly Ogbah's replacements failed to generate enough heat, and Ogbah himself is no Garrett.
It's not truly a pressing need, but another scary edge-rusher would upgrade the whole defense, so that should be a priority.
Defensive tackle is...well there are too many of them! Amazing talent! Amazing depth!
To review, there are no real "pressing needs" on this defense, but cornerback and edge-rusher should be priorities, and (free) safety will be looked at.
The 2017 Browns defense had one major problem: The 2017 Browns offense.
The problems with the offense did include the offensive line once Big Joe went down. Spencer Drango went above and beyond in relief, but is nothing like Joe. Because the Browns needed to help him out, one tight end often had to act like a sixth offensive lineman, and was unavailable as a receiver or downfield blocker.
Joe will return in the spring, and with him, this projects as one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.
Left tackle could be a priority for the Browns. Roderick Johnson, a raw project, was drafted last season with an eye towards eventually replacing Big Joe, but like Howard Wilson, he has yet to prove anything, and no assumptions can be made about him.
I can skip a few steps here by jumping to quarterback. Quarterback was THE problem with the Browns offense. It was not any of the receivers once Coleman and Gordon returned. It was not the running backs or the tight ends. It was the quarterback, the quarterback, and the quarterback.
Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.
Obviously the Browns will draft one with the top pick and try to sign Smith or Cousins. Either of these veterans would instantly transform this same offense, with these same players, into a force to be reckoned with.
You have to THINK about this, just a little:
1: Receivers can't produce when balls sail over their heads or land in the dirt in front of them, or simply are not thrown at all. You are blaming the receivers for the quarterback. All of them get OPEN and have good hands. Go over some old tapes and you'll see it. Is he open? Was the ball catchable? Watch it!
2: Njoku was a rookie. Rookie tight ends rarely achieve much. OJ Howard couldn't catch up to Cameron Brate. Hunter Henry was still struggling. DeValve was a second year converted wide receiver who I gotta say improved drasticly as an in-line blocker later in the season.
3: Stop judging Corey Coleman for getting open all the time and not getting thrown to. Yes, he choked on that touchdown pass, but I almost can't blame him. He couldn't believe that pass was actually right TO him! He must have been disoriented and in shock. Coleman does NOT normally drop passes!
4: Josh Gordon is Josh Gordon. We have to keep our fingers crossed that he makes it through the offseason without backsliding, but if he does, he could be the best wide receiver in the NFL again.
Mary Kay hallucinates a "pressing need" at wide receiver because the quarterback can't find or hit them, and despite the fact that Duke Johnson can line up there as well.
However, the depth is questionable, even if you're willing to cut Rashard Higgins some slack. You worry about Gordon sailing off the edge of the Earth, Coleman breaking his hand yet again etc.
I do like the idea of re-signing Terrelle Pryor dirt-cheap again, and going after a Jarvis Landry, and drafting one on day two for that matter.
I don't think Landry makes it out of Miami, however.
Well I guess that's it! Let's tighten this up some for clarity:
Pressing Needs: Quarterback, quarterback, quarterback.
Priorities: Cornerback, edge-rusher, wide receiver, running back.
Desirable: Another Joe Thomas protege, best available players.
I need to explain the running back listing: As I've mentioned, Isaiah Crowell is primed to escape the prison Hue Fisher stuffed him in ASAP, which will leave the Browns with Dayes and Duke.
I love both those guys, but they're not workhorses. Crowell, if used intelligently, could have been a 20-carry workhorse, but of course thanks to Hue that is not to be, and the Browns will need a new big, strong guy to replace him.
Called digression: A few observations from "wild card weekend" playoff games:
1: All of these teams kept hammering up the A-gaps with power runs and getting stuffed as often as not. I've probably been too hard on Hue Jackson...nah! Because NONE of them quit trying to run at all til they actually were well and truly in comeback mode (and they all had GOOD quarterbacks!)
2: Most of these teams, including those with "committees" designated and stuck with a lead-back, and tried to wear the opposing defense down with him in the trenches.
End of digression.
The reporting of the Browns draft picks has been superficial.
They do have five picks in the top two rounds, but the top third round pick is almost a second round pick, and that matters. Actually they have six top 65 draft picks. Why do you dismiss a just barely not second round pick like that? Do you know how many Pro Bowl guards, running backs, wide receivers, def...well just how can you not include that pick?
Really, if Dorsey nails all of them (statistically barely possible no matter how good you are), he gets an eventual "franchise" quarterback, an eventual upper-end left tackle, and three new very talented starters or rotational players with great upside. (See how I left one out? That's the one Dorsey almost has to "miss").
That would be awesome, but free agency could be even awesomer if Dorsey lands Alex Smith, a top tier veteran cornerback, and let's say a Terrelle Pryor and a really reliable wide receiver (conceivably a scary edge-rusher, but probably not, because nobody wants to give them up).
To revisit runnning back, here I go again: Forget about Ebeneezer Belle and every other overpriced, beat up, descending NFL veteran.
The Browns' next "workhorse" running back will be cheap and fresh, because he will be drafted in 2018.
As I've said every year, drafting a running back in the top five is generally dumb, because stud running backs historically come from everywhere.
But based on my experts' (not to mention my clan's) consensus opinions this year, Saquon Barkley is the exception, and I remain adament that Dorsey draft him fourth overall if he can (and that's final for now).
All the experts are all over this guy in a way they haven't been since Adrian Peterson.
Now, Adrian Peterson was the next Jim Brown, but the game has changed since AP was drafted, and continues to evolve.
Ever heard of Todd Gurley, LeShaun McCoy, Ebeneezer Belle?
Barkley has already proven that he's that swiss army back, and he's 5'10", crowding 230 lbs. The scouts and coaches don't have to project him as a receiver, as he's already fairly advanced.
Nitpickers are saying that he needs to improve as a passblocker, but that's all the negatives I've heard so far. (But stand by they'll dig up or invent more "negatives").
Barkley was sort of his team's whole offense. He blasted through predesignated holes for smashmouth yardage, along with everything else.
I've compared him to Duke Johnson, and that's absolutely valid. But he has at least 16 lbs, one inch, and .4 seconds on Duke, which makes him "Super-Duke".
Count on Hue Lewis lobbying Ken Dorsey for Saquon Barkley, because he'd upgrade the whole offense instantly and dramaticly, and even DeShone Kizer already knows how to throw to him!
Much as I've bashed Hue, it seems to me that one thing he might do with Duke and Saquon is run more 2-back, except put Duke in the slot more (like he already has; Duke was the slot receiver a whole lot initially, and did a great job at it too!)
Barkley is a home-run hitter who can out-sprint most NFL safeties and cornerbacks. His 40 time is expected to be in the low 4's, but his long speed is more important here, and we won't see that at the combine.
So I concur with my clan that Mayfield or Darnold and Barkley would be the ideal combination at 1 and 4.
If you were Alex Smith, would you be afraid to play behind this offensive line with Gordon, Barkley, Duke, Corey Coleman, and Njoku around you?
If not well...we know you're no Alex Smith, right?
Alex Smith is a brain, you see:
He might think "Is there a Kelce here?" He'll check out Njoku, and decide there's not a Kelce YET, but then go over the tapes and see how many times Kizer overlooked or missed him, and check out DeValve as well, and decide he'll have something to work with here.
"Where is my microbe big play receiver who drops half the passes I throw to him?" He won't find him, either, but he'll like Corey Coleman even better, since he will actually catch more passes thrown to him, and is just as lethal.
"Where is my Kareem Hunt?" Saquon Barkley case closed!
"Where is my...errummm....?"
Josh Gordon. Wow I got Josh Gordon too!?! And Duke Johnson?
Kirk Cousins might let his agent and superstitions do his "thinking" for him, but Alex Smith thinks like ME (ie thinks, period), so he'll take the Cleveland Browns seriously...especially if they draft Barkley!
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