Monday, January 22, 2018

Good News, QB Sleeper, and the Browns

I'm obviously quite happy about the Browns landing Todd Haley as the Browns' first offensive coordinator.

Here's hoping that Hue Fisher will take a hint from the Sith Lord in New England, and let him just do his job.  I do like Hue personally, and kinda think he will.  

Naturally, he will have discussions and make suggestions, but I don't think he'll try to override or micromanage Haley.

You can't argue with Haley's success throughout his career, including as a wide receivers' coach.  Hue came to the Browns with a similar reputation, but I do feel that Hue is not going to trip over his ego here.

He can relax now, and sort of trouble-shoot.  Help with Kizer and a rookie quarterback.  His game-plans really weren't that bad.  What was bad was the fact that he stopped running prematurely, didn't adapt to his offensive skill players (even after injuries), and threw most of his short passes to running backs only.  And oh yeah: Stopped running the ball early, even when it was working, and even with a lead.

Haley, with Arizona and then the Steelers, ran balanced offenses.  Even when he took over "the greatest show on turf" and had Kurt Warner, he made sure to run the ball to mitigate the passrush and set up play-action.

As you've probably read by now, Kurt Warner is a huge Haley fan (and you really need to take that seriously).

On the quarterback front, a new name has come up: Mike White (Western Kentucky, Senior Bowl participant).

The writer of one article says he's "heard" that John Dorsey is a big fan of White (so we can now report that as a confirmed fact originating from Dorsey himself right?  And now we can talk "smoke and mirrors" since we know for sure that Dorsey leaked this himself on purpose for some inexplicable reason when he has the first and fourth overall picks good grief but I digress):

I checked White out somewhat, simply because smart people were talking him up, and think he might be a sleeper.  He checks all the boxes, including accuracy.  (57%!...on passes over 20 yards.)

His offense uses slants and crosses, and he demonstrates this type of accuracy just as he does vertical accuracy (see old post; these are two different skill-sets, and guys with both are special).

I always give "low level of competition" quarterbacks a second look, because I seem to be the only one who realizes that their offensive lines and receivers are only about as good as the defenses trying to stop them, so it's almost irrelevant.

It's very early right now, but so far, the negatives on Mike White are that he locks onto his receivers, and takes too many chances trying to hit tight windows in the middle of the field.  After just a shallow scan, I can't find the rubber stamp "inconsistent accuracy when getting sacked or running for his life" bashing which is almost universal.

White's scouting reports that I've seen so far (if you add on the "inconsistent accuracy" bullshit) matches that of Mason Rudolph, except White apparently has a better arm, has better deep accuracy, and is more aggressive.

1: Is the "I heard" Dorsey likes him report valid?  I have no idea, but wouldn't be surprised.

2: If true, what does it mean?  Well, it means he likes him!  More than Darnold or the other guys?  Let's not leap to that conclusion, shall we not?  (Remember when you "assume", you make an ass of y o u r s e l f).

However, what if my own not humble early first impression is correct, and Mike White is a big sleeper, who rightfully belongs with the overhyped quarterbacks in this draft?

Well, even with a strong Senior Bowl week, he could remain lost in the shuffle, and be available in the second round or later.

Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson were fourth round afterthoughts.  Aaron Rodgers was a low first rounder (and a lot of people thought that when Brett Favre left Green Bay several years later the Pack was doomed).

John Dorsey WILL sign a veteran quarterback to start immediately (no debate) this season.  Right now, I do think that will be Alex Smith, as Kirk Cousins' asking price is utterly rediculous, and some idiot is libel to pay it.

As Terry Pluto agrees with what I've said, we can't figure out who died and declared A J McCarron or Tyrod Taylor franchise quarterbacks, and every Viking quarterback except Keenum comes with huge red flags.

And I take this Chase Daniels rumor with a pound of salt (but can't dismiss it completely.  I'll investigate and get back to you).

Anyhoo, Dorsey will get a GOOD (or excellent) veteran quarterback in here (ready for the Steelers/Ravens/Bengals) for at least 2018.

With Kizer as the top backup (which he should have been in 2017 dammit), whoever Dorsey drafts will be glued to the bench as a rookie (like Kizer should have been dammit).

You know where I'm going here.  I can hear you screaming "NOOO NOT AGAIN JUST DRAFT A QUARTERBACK FIRST OVERALL!"

I hear you, but you're not being rational:

1: John Dorsey isn't Sashi Brown or Ray Farmer or anybody else.  

2: Talent is talent.  Ryan Leaf was a "can't miss".  Alex Smith was called a "bust" for half his career.  Blake Bortles was called a bust until this season.  Who was that Raiders can't miss who lasted about one season? (You can't remember either right?)

You don't draft a guy, "no madder wudd",  regardless of what everybody else says, if you don't think he's "da man".  You draft the guy YOU think is da man!

3: It's really hard to outsmart everybody else (Pat Kirwan says it's impossible, at least with quarterbacks), but if YOU think a Mike White has as much or more talent than the guys everybody else is slavering over, and you can get him a lot cheaper, you DO IT.  DUH!!!

As I've said, it's early, and the Senior Bowl and more research might bring me back to Baker Mayfield (or something) again, but for the moment I favor trading down from number one and nailing down Laquon Barkley, and maybe trading down from number four too, and STILL getting a stud safety or cornerback or edge-rusher or LEFT tackle, and getting Mike White later.

A note on that:  First round picks come with five year contracts, instead of four.  If Dorsey hoses the Madding crowd out of even more draft picks, he can trade up to nail White down and get a 5th year out of it.

Nobody said John Dorsey can't do what Sashi Brown did yet again...I mean except for the DeShone Kizer part....

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