Monday, September 4, 2017

Sammy Coates, Arrogance, Browns vs Steelers

I've checked out Sammy Coates some more, and have to upgrade my opinion of him somewhat.

It turns out that after a white-hot start last season, he broke his middle finger. The next week, he broke another finger.  I don't know if you know this, but two broken fingers are not conducive to catching footballs.

The fact that he remained active and still played commands some respect.

Now, his college scouting reports were what they were, and he did have bad hands (and other problems).  But during the first five games last season, he was as good as any receiver in the NFL.

There still may be issues: Can he run the short and intermediate routes?  For sure he's a deep threat, but if that's all you can do, a defense can shut you down.

I think Coates the Pro may have softer hands than the college version.  A preponderance of deep routes will undermine a catch rate, just as it undermines a quarterback's completion percentage.  Two broken fingers don't help much either.

So conceivably, this was a good move.  Kenny Britt, you feel the heat?

Do not assume Coates can't play against his old team this sunday.  NFL patterns are standardized, and so are reads.  

I heard the rumors of a Josh Gordon reinstatement in week three.  Alex Marvez said well gee, he hasn't taken a snap and wasn't in training camp or anything, so what are they going to do with him?

I'm so tired of this: It's not rocket science!!!  Josh might need a couple weeks of practice and some hitting before he can start again, but that's all.  Come on, you think he forgot how to play wide receiver?

I feel optimistic about all three units of the 2017 Browns.  I think the consensus on the defense and special teams agrees with me.  

Defensively, everybody sees Garrett, Shelton, Collins, Kirksey, and Peppers.  But not so many actually recognize Brien Boddy-Calhoun, Trevon Coley, Jamar Taylor, Ogbah, Schobert, or Derrick Kindred...YET.

ALL of these guys, I promise you, will rank in the top third at their respective positions by the end of 2017.  Gregg Williams doesn't have to mess with a sow's ear.  He is making a silk purse out of silk.

The three biggest "surprises" here will be Schobert, Coley, and Calhoun.

Coley looks like Warren Sapp, which is why (at least til Shelton returns) he's become a nominal starter.  He's not going to fade away.  He's going to keep blowing things up in opposing backfields.  It's really not a mirage.  He really is that good.

Schobert is an elite talent.  If anybody can stop Ebeneezer Belle this sunday, it's Schobert.  Belle hangs back and lets his blockers create gaps.  Schobert is his evil twin.  He will see that gap, and fill it.

He makes all the calls when he's on the field.  He covers a lot.  He's a nominal MIKE, but he's really all over the place.  He's actually kind of Gregg Williams hybrid player AND defensive playcaller.

While I'm on the Browns vs Steelers, I wonder if the team will have to drag Myles Garrett out of the locker room for the game.  He must be terrified, now that he screwed up by saying he would like to sack Big Ben.

Naturally, Ben and Clowney treated this as the childish fantasy it was, showing admirable restraint in view of the severity of this insult, but I know that Myles must still be terrified of the inevitable humiliation he will suffer.

It goes without saying that Garrett will never get anywhere near Big Ben against Alejandro Villinueva, who is now a cagey veteran who will anticipate and easily neutralize every pitiful move the rookie will attempt.

Most likely, Clowney will block Coley and the right DT simultaneously, and if all else fails, Ben can slap passrushers aside with his left hand.

But I digress: The Browns offense is being sold short.  To be clear, it's not like the defense or special teams.

Kizer is not truly "ready", and did kinda win the starting job by default.  He's going to screw up.

This just in:  Several players have been signed to the practice squad, including Kai Nacua (yay).  Tyrone Holmes and Rashard Higgins are expected to sign as well, but Rodney Lesliefield is not.

Well, this was just a writer stating opinions, but I cannot fathom this.  Did Jordan Leslie incur some gypsy curse or something?  Is there some algae in Lake Erie or something making everybody blind?

I don't get it.

Anyway the offense:  They never tried to run in preseason like they intend to in real games.  The Steelers are always tough on the run, and Bitonio is injured, so that's going to be tough, but the 2017 Browns should be able to get at least 3.2 ypc even against the Steelers.

Hue also mixed everything up in preseason.  Now that it counts, he'll use more 2-back and 2-tight end sets; these are power sets, and partly why the run will work better this year.

Vs the Steelers specificly, I'm not sure this is ideal.  Hue might actually run more spreads, because the Steelers secondary is still comparatively weak, and Shazir can run with the Browns tight ends.

...Well maybe not...this is tough...

Ok ok the 2017 Browns can run a spread even with two tight ends AND two running backs (that's one true wide receiver--default Coleman there).

This is Hue Jackson, so do not doubt that even Randall Telfer will line up outside from time to time.  Certainly, Njoku and DeValve will.  Everybody knows by now that Duke will be the slot guy, but he will also set up outside too sometimes as well.  Crowell sets up in the slot sometimes, and has become pretty damn good at it too.

Dan Vitale is injured right now, but even he can go to the slot, or stay in the backfield and take handoffs.  In his absence, you should sometimes see all three tight ends on the field at the same time, with DeValve maybe at fullback.

Any such set mandates a base defense for the Steelers...ok maybe a big nickel, except if you do that, you weaken yourself vs the run, and (no research yet) I don't think the Steelers have a reserve safety or linebacker who could make that work better than their default front seven.

Shazir is a freak, so out of the base-set he can do strong safety stuff...

Anyway, Hue has all the tools here to run the offense of his dreams:

Three actual wide receivers aside, literally any 12 or 22 set can deploy as anything from an "elephant" blunt force trauma power run set to an empty backfield 5-wide.

It's irrelevant if there's only one real deep burner when you have linebackers trying to cover DeValve or Njoku or even Duke.  It's almost as irrelevant how they line up, since if they set up outside they pull run-stoppers out there with them, and they can all block in space too.

In other words, even if they spread out, you still don't know if it's a pass or a run.

It will be hard to put any extra heat on Kizer, as you pull guys out of coverage to blitze.  He's big, strong, quick, and fast, and if you miss, you're usually dead meat.

You can't jailbreak on him either.  He's a serious run-threat, and you have to contain him, and mind your gaps, and by the way his blockers know this.

Oh yeah, and you never know when you'll see a read-option, rollout, qb run...whatever, so you can't count on...anything.

Naturally, the Steelers will attack.  They have the people to stifle the run, but the 2017 Browns offensive line and protection packages, combined with exotic plays, should actually give Kizer time to strike deep, often.

The Steelers have his college tapes, but those and his preseason tapes aren't very useful.  Knowing that Hue has hidden a lot, and that he is a sneaky bastard, they can only guess at what he and Kizer will try against them.

To be sure, they will expect everything I've described, but will have a hard time using it, because they won't know when Hue will call what.

I am NOT predicting a Browns victory against a Superbowl contender second only to the Patriots in the AFC in their own back yard here.  I am just predicting a much closer game than most of you expect.

Looking ahead to the perennially overrated Ravens in game 2, I can already predict a Browns win, but more on that later.

Nobody can really cover Antonio Brown.  I'm not sure how Gregg will try to muffle him.  He's not actually a vertical guy so much as a YAC guy, so off-man and zone maybe, so the DBs can beat him up where he catches it.

Gregg's first answer to the Brown problem is his solution to everything:  Get to the quarterback before he can throw it.

Too bad his defensive line is so badly overmatched, now that the intemperate Myles Garrett has insulted the Steelers offensive line.  Thanks Myles.  Now you've awakened the sleeping giant!

Yeah right.




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