Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Ravens v Browns, Kizer, Permabashers and the Browns

I just saw the Browns depth chart, and it has Kai Nacua backing up Kindred, while Ibraheim Campbell backs Peppers.

I had thought Peppers was playing free, while Kindred moved back to strong, but Nacua is first and foremost a center fielder.  Based on Terry Pluto's and others' comments, I know that vs the Steelers, Peppers lined up 25-30 yards deep, and that's free safety country.

I wish I had seen the game, because I suspect that Gregg Williams is running more cover two than he has in the past--or else the unofficial depth chart is fulla beans.

...or Gregg Williams doesn't care who gets called what.

The Ravens are favored by 7.5 points.  That's funny, but I get it:

They dominated the Bengals in Cinci, notably extracting four interceptions from Andy Dalton to go with a bunch of sacks.

As I've mentioned, Dalton is a seasoned veteran who seldom screws up.  It's logical to think that a rookie DeShone Kizer will screw up even more than Dalton did.

It didn't help that a couple of really talented Cinci running backs were shot up on the runway, and based on what the Steelers did to Crowell, you tend to expect more of the same in Baltimore.

All of that is logical, but there is more to this:

Cincinnati's defense was missing two key players, and I'm telling you right now that even at full strength, that unit is not as good as Gregg Williams's crew is.  Forget 2016.  Get over that, it's irrelevant.

The Ravens offense is nothing to write home about.  Flacco is elite, and they have Jeremy Maclin now, but Danny Woodhead is injured and Terrence West is the main running back.  Their offensive line isn't anything like the Steelers' unit, and Flacco has a back issue.

The Browns weren't able to consistently pressure Big Ben, but part of that was the fact that he dinked and dunked a lot, and got rid of it quickly.

Flacco isn't as good at that as Ben is, and Woodhead should have been a prime short receiver (haha get it?  "Short"?  Nevermind).

I know I know but what about that Ravens defense vs Kizer?

Well, first and foremost, Hue Jackson is not Marvin Lewis, so Kizer will be a "moving target" a lot.  More than half the sacks Kizer took were on him; I'm now hearing from sources I trust that the offensive line provided decent protection.

And that's another point: The Browns offensive line is better than the Bengals offensive line.

Kizer is a lethal deep passer, too, while Dalton is not.  DeShone didn't take off and run vs the Steelers defense very often, but I've heard suggestions that he should have, and suspect that he will more often going forward.

While Kenny Britt may be a nominal starter, he will most certainly be on the field less often, while the rapidly-emerging Ricardo Louis (and Sammy Coates) will be on it more.

Kizer overthrew Duke Johnson twice, and both times he had beaten his coverage.  This is a timing/synch issue that should be worked out during this week.

Now listen:  Louis probably doesn't drop that pass, and the next pass to Duke Johnson is probably on the money, see?

Understand this:  If these passes had been caught in week one, the lowly Cleveland Browns would probably have upset the Steelers.

And the Ravens are NOT the Steelers, ok?  Not even close.

Another point is that John Harbaugh had the whole off season to prepare for Cincinnati.  Marvin Lewis did too, but...well...

The Ravens and Browns both have brand new 2017 game films to study, and I consider Williams and Jackson a match for Harbaugh and company.  Another point is the comparative experience of the two teams:

Kizer to DeValve is coming along nicely.  Kizer to Coleman is already there.  Kizer to Johnson is the big project, and Kizer to Njoku needs some work too.

But all these players belong in the NFL.  Two of them are rookies, and the other two are second year players.  They should all be better this week than they were last week.

So should Coley, Nassib, Ogunjobi, and Peppers.

The Ravens are substantially a well-seasoned veteran team, accustomed to long-standing offensive and defensive systems.

I'm not saying that in one week, all the Browns youngsters will make a huge leap, but please understand this:

A receiver who ran the wrong route last week is likely to run the right one this week.  A right tackle who got suckered last week might not fall for it this week.  A quarterback who overthrew a certain receiver last week probably won't this week.  

The little things add up.

And of course, Jeremy Maclin is scary, but I can't find an Antonio Brown, Ebeneezer Belle, or even a Jesse James on the Ravens roster.  For that matter, not a TJ Watt either.

The Ravens defense is probably better than the Browns defense right now, but not by much.  The Browns offense is MUCH better than the Ravens offense, already.  Special teams should be much better as well.

Got to go to DeShone Kizer yet again now:

As I mentioned, I was pleasantly surprised by his short and intermediate passing vs Pittsburgh.  He has, indeed, adapted to the Pro game at an amazing pace, and demonstrated reliable skills I didn't think he had (yet).

He is very young, with only two years worth of starts in college.  He looked like crap as a junior.  When they drafted this guy, I thought it was a good pick at that spot, but assumed he'd spend at least most of his rookie season on the bench.

As my readers know, I wasn't sure Kizer could ever become a franchise quarterback.  I kept questioning Mary Kay Cabbot's sanity as she proclaimed Kizer the starter early in training camp ("and it's not even close") when he was only completing 50% of his passes.  (Well I still say that was insane, but she was accidentally right).

Decision-making aside, his ability to remain calm under pressure is also amazing.  Hue is right:  Kizer does not get rattled.

I believe Kessler did.  Osweiler's mechanics broke down.  Kizer won his job through the ice in his veins as much as his arm and intelligence.

The Steelers were a crucible.  They took the run away from him, and put it all on his shoulders.  Second and third and long all freaking day!

Prior to the game, Hue Jackson even talked about how Kizer hadn't had to deal with three or four possessions where "nothing works" yet, and well?

Of course, Hue started the hurry-up to help him out, and it worked.  And there's yet another thing: Kizer ran it well; he managed it!

I know Jim Donovan, after at least two downs where players seemed confused and disorganized (one burning a time out), said "maybe they should huddle once in awhile", but I'm with Hue on this one.

And there's another point:  vs the Ravens in game two, there should be less confusion if the Browns hurry up again.

A hurry-up prevents defensive substitutions and locks a personnel group in place.  As I've mentioned, the Browns offensive skill talent can run any offensive set, so they can force mismatches and spread the defense out.

It wears the defensive players down.  This is why so often it starts out with runs and dink-passes, and graduates to vertical passes.  The passrushers and coverage guys' legs are dead after awhile.

It would never occur to many head coaches to run a hurry-up until it was mandatory, and I'm really happy that Hue Jackson is smarter than them.

I'm also glad that he at least tried to stick with the run, even though it didn't work.

Back to Kizer:  His ability to run the hurry-up was also impressive, because he was sort of calling all his own plays based on what he saw.

He probably had a bare-bones play package, and possibly a 3-play script, but within that package had discretion.  That package will be expanded somewhat this week, and will include stuff the Ravens haven't seen yet.

Quarterbacks take more time to develop than everybody else, but Kizer looks different to me.  Any other rookie might be pretty much the same in start two as in start one, but Kizer might be 5% better.

Part of this is his history.  He was a train wreck in his junior season at Notre Dame.  Expectations for him were really low.

The bigger part of this is Hue Jackson and David Lee, who are all over him on each and every practice snap.

Hue Jackson is refreshingly honest in saying that Kizer and he are "joined at the hip".  He literally means that if Kizer fails, he expects to get fired.

This guy is special.  He is a prodigy.  He will beat the perennially-overrated Ravens.  (Cinci probobly will too in the rematch).

James Burgess, who was the only linebacker not named Kirksey, Collins, or Schobert to play vs Pittsburgh, is listed as a strongside linebacker on the depth chart.

He excels in coverage, and is a good blitzer.  He actually sounds similar to Kirksey.

He seems to have surpassed Dominique Alexander on the (real) depth chart, but that could be due to the week one matchups.  Alexander is definitely the top backup for Schobert and Kirksey, and perhaps Collins as well.

I think Burgess is a situational guy for now, but he bears watching in a Gregg Williams defense, because he's a strong safety/linebacker hybrid.

Yet another "nobody" the current regime dug up and gave a real chance to.

I've scanned some message boards and found some real idiocy in re that:

One cretin is itemizing Mack, Schwartze, Givens etc and calling the new crew a bunch of idiots.

Well that's easy to do, if you're cherrypicking negatives, ignoring context, and ignoring the "to the foundations" clearly announced strategy.

I thought letting Schwartze go was idiotic myself, but not the much older and greedier Mack.  If you're not objective, you can list every single loss of any above average player as a screwup and build a good shallow, ignorant, superficial case to indict any regime in the NFL on monday mornings.

Overall, things are looking great, aren't they?  

These are the Permabashers.  Even Black Cloud isn't as bad as these goobers.  Black Cloud doesn't demand 100% perfection.  He is negative, always expecting the worst, but is capable of critical thinking...and has been silent, of late.

That's because the Browns just took the AFC Superbowl favorites down to the wire.

Black Cloud could have declared the Browns offensive line and Isaiah Crowell a bunch of losers.  He could have said Jamar Taylor sucks.  I know he wanted to, by the way, but he knew I'd hand him his head if he did...because he is capable of critical thinking.

I know that there is intelligent life in Cleveland because the permabashers are an extremely LOUD minority.  The majority of stuff I read is actually pretty insightful and smart.

The current regime is not perfect, but they might be closer to perfect than 30 other regimes.

I deem that acceptable.





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