I just realized something that might make some of you lose your minds, with the help of Pro Football Focus (warning: This article is not for the faint of heart).
The Ravens offense last sunday was a model of the offense which Hue Jackson tried to run against the Ravens defense.
This is offensive coordinator Marty Mornhingweg and Head Coach John Harbaugh, so you need to be mature and objective, and respect it.
Vs the Bengals the week prior, the Ravens offense chugged and sputtered somewhat, and many of their locals were wondering what was wrong with Joe Flacco.
Not so last sunday, as Flacco threw quick, accurate darts to stifle what was, in reality, a good Browns passrush. As you saw, the ageless Ben Watson was his favorite target, and fellow tight end Jack Doyle got in on that act as well.
Next came his running backs. Flacco attacked the short middle, mostly, with high-percentage passes. The Ravens were also ABLE TO run the ball almost as often as they passed it.
The Browns' strengths and weaknesses are similar talent-wise, and Hue is trying to run a similar offense with his own triad of tight ends and stable of sure-handed running backs.
So why did it work for the Ravens and not for the Browns? Don't be an idiot and say it's because the Ravens offense and defense are more talented.
No, it's because Flacco is a seasoned veteran, along with most of the other players on that team. Most of them have been there for awhile, too. Conversely, the Browns quarterback was a rookie. Their top receiver is a second year player. A first and second year tight end. Higgins (mainly from the slot) was a second year player.
Most of the Ravens offensive linemen came up from within the organization, whereas Tretter and Zietler just got here, and of course Shon Coleman is a second year player himself.
There's really no comparison between the two teams' experience.
As I mentioned, Flacco shocked me (and no doubt the linebackers) with his quick release and superb short accuracy, especially after his sloppy performance in Cincinnati, but maybe it shouldn't have.
A couple weeks ago, I said Flacco wasn't good at short passes. I was fulla crap.
PFF singles out tight end Jack Doyle with almost a 100 blocking grade. I guess the Ravens used a bunch of two tight end sets, and held Doyle in as a sixth pass-protector (and run-blocker).
I'm not sure how Telfer did in that role, but I can promise you that DeValve and Njoku weren't in Doyle's zip code, and that's another issue: DeValve and Njoku were never intended to be elite in-line blockers, but they do need to be proficient, and so far, they are not.
This has contributed to the ineffectiveness of the running game, and accounted for several sacks already.
For that matter, Ben Watson is a pretty good blocker too.
Anyway, two of the reasons the Ravens attacked the Browns defense this way were their pass-rush and (pay attention here) Jabrill Peppers.
Livingston doesn't get this, and it bugs Terry Pluto as well, but Peppers lines up as deep as he does to limit the depth of passes the opposing offense can throw. I don't care if it's Green or Jones, if you put him in a jump-ball situation with Peppers, your risks no longer justify your rewards, and if he's not leaping in the air to pick you off, he's going to TRASH your receiver.
I keep trying to explain this, and nobody seems to get it: Gregg Williams blitzes and plays some zone. Both of these leave things open, and he knows he'll cough up some plays.
Peppers is back there to (ideally) make sure that no one pass play outside the red zone turns into six points. LEAVE him back there, Coach Whoeveryouare!
Don't start saying the linebackers can't cover. You CAN NOT prevent a perfect pass from being caught, and linebackers who can really cover are called "safeties", except a lot of strong safeties can't cover that well either.
All coaches know this! It's rare that a Joe Montana or a white-hot Joe Flacco can hit those tiny windows over and over again without drops or deflections, and if you can stop it near where it's caught, that is deemed acceptable.
If you keep a lid on the big plays (see "Peppers, Jabrill"), you play the odds and expect a timely sack, a batted pass interception, rushed/inaccurate passes, drops, balls knocked loose, and strip-fumbles.
You don't expect to face Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers and elite receivers each and every week, and unless they're damn near perfect, your defense will win this way...unless you put your free safety close to the line of scrimmage, and give up 40-60 yard touchdown passes.
Enough on that. I can't close the subject without addressing the Ravens veteran defense:
They mainly rushed four (did not blitze, and Suggs is one of the four). They did stunt a bit, but the Browns offensive line actually gave Kizer time to throw more often than not. The problem was, he didn't throw.
Ask PFF. Kizer was tops in the NFL not only in how long he held onto the damn ball, but also in how long it took him to get SACKED (That was five seconds--and that should tell you something about this offensive line DO YOU UNDERSTAND?)
Self-correction: Tretter held his ground against that big monster in pass protection, earning and excellent grade in pass-pro. I still doubt that he did more than wall him off on runs, though...haven't checked that out yet. Still I feel a lot better about him now. Alex Mack spoiled all of us.
Anyway, the Ravens held seven "in coverage", mostly, but this is a deceptive term, because at least one (often two) safeties and two linebackers were in the box, looking to stuff the run first.
They did not fear Kenny Britt, (Dear Hue Jackson: H I N T!!! H I N T!!!!), and figured they could keep a lid on Coleman with a deep safety on top.
They weren't afraid of Kizer, either...well, more accurately, they wanted to do exactly what they did, and deprive him of the run first and foremost, to put it all on the rookie's shoulders.
And they could do this partly because they have two of the best safeties in the NFL. Browns fans can hope our own safeties will eventually get that good, but right now? Chuh!
Oh god would you shut up Vince Lombardi with this "no excuses" crap!?
I get why Vince said that stuff---it's motivational speaking. He pioneered it in football.
In reality, Vince was a highly educated, brilliant guy (with a big heart by the way). In reality, he won a ton of games, but he lost a few, as well. Do you think when he lost, he stood in the middle of that locker room and called everybody a bunch of losers?
Get real! Quit repeating cliches you don't even understand!
One reason I like ex-offensive lineman Ross Tucker (NFL Radio) so much is that he talks about this stuff:
"Next man up": Well yeah, every team wants to think the backup is as good as the starter, but that is uh, what's the word...oh yeah insane.
Pat Kirwan, at least two or three times per-show, uses this "next man up" philosophy in re the Steelers, as if it's unique to them. This guy knows more about football than I ever expect to learn, but he's just silly sometimes.
The fact is, missing Collins and Coleman will hurt the team. Inexperience IS hurting the team. Those aren't excuses. Those are facts.
"Injuries are no excuse" what? Really? Who backs up Matt Ryan? Antonio Brown? Gimme a break just shut tf UP ok?
This is why I can't even talk to some people. It's like Mister Spock vs a cult member. I'd end up burned at some stake.
I haven't checked out the Colts depth yet, but do know they're not very good overall.
They have a terrific big-play wide receiver, and Jacobi Brisset is a lethal running quarterback (ala Micheal Vick), but their offensive line aint all that, which is partly why Andrew Luck is on IR, and before he got there couldn't win his own self.
Bud Shaw is really funny and smart, but doesn't know football that well. He knows a lot of Browns fans will pencil in a win vs the Colts, but figures many Colts fans will be doing the same with the Browns.
I speak from experience, because PA and Indy have been like my second homes for years now: People in Indiana can almost all spell their names right and use two-syllable words. They can even count to one hundred.
Colts fans will see the Browns as a chance to win a game for sure, but only a few will expect it.
Even before I do any real homework, I do pencil this one in as a win for the Browns. The 2017 Colts aren't even in the same league as the 2017 Browns, even 3 games in. And Bud Shaw? Most Colts fans hope Brissett will break loose and RUN for a couple touchdowns, but otherwise are not very optimistic.
Colts fans might be as knowlegable as real Browns fans, Bud. They saw the Ravens game, but also the Steelers game--and believe it or not, they remember BOTH, and know they're outgunned.
The Browns enter the soft spot in their schedule here, and can get well.
Hue Jackson wants to keep Kizer on the field, as he sees benching him for Hogan as harmful to him. In reality, avoiding a fierce passrush is not important at all. Establishing a running game is.
And as I posted most recently--with respect to Peter Smith--that's on this offensive line and its' ancillary blockers, and not the running backs or coaches.
As I posted a couple before that one, run-blocking (whether power or zone) is more "attitude" than anything else. Everybody says this stuff, and it rings as hollow as "injuries are no excuse". But the Browns offensive line is STACKED, two tight ends is a base, and they HAVE THE PEOPLE to do it!
...well Njoku and DeValve need to work on in-line blocking, but you know except for that...
Vs the Ravens, the three tight ends accounted for nearly 100 receiving yards. Unfortunately, Rodney Hoganfield was on the other end of at least half of that during his brief stint at quarterback.
Hogan's statline was mediocre (except compared to the annointed one's), but he accounted for every freaking point in that game.
Kizer can do this too. He just needs to see what Hogan did...and GET RID OF THE DAMN BALL GDAMMIT...
Kizer needs to back off: "Wow Duke got 22 yards off that lob! I SAW that! Why didn't I pull the trigger? I'm such an idiot!"
At least I HOPE Kizer is thinking like this. As far as his hitting the freaking broad side of a freaking barn consistently...I just don't know.
But he sure as hell had better beat the Colts.
No comments:
Post a Comment