Browns vs Ravens is expected to be the lowest-scoring game in the NFL this week. Sounds about right to me.
Almost everybody except me is picking the Ravens, which is ok too...but I don't understand why, aside from the fact that it's in Baltimore, and that team's home opener.
Certainly, the crowd noise will make it tough for Kizer to hear and make calls. One expects a rookie quarterback (and team, for that matter), to become more jittery in a hostile environment too.
But check it out: While the Ravens were punking the Bengals in week one, the Jaguars were punking the Texans (running at will, all over them, and smothering their offense).
Thursday night, the Texans beat the hell out of the Bengals, with DeShaun Watson at their helm.
Well isn't it just possible that the Bengals aren't a very good team right now? And doesn't that factor in here?
Are the Ravens, then, as awesome as the Bengals made them look?
Well in fairness to the Bengals, the dirtiest player in the NFL might have salvaged that game for them, but Burfict is on a well-earned vacation...and nevermind he might have cost them the game too the psycho rates thorazine ya know?
One of my fantasy experts recommended a Ravens wide receiver based on the Browns v Steelers week one stats. I'm putting him at the bottom of my credibility list, and here's why:
The Browns pretty much shut down the Steelers wide receivers for most of the game, including Antonio Brown. Brown had to catch short passes and was stopped where he caught them. It was actually quite impressive!
But the aforementioned hellspawn burst his bonds to gash our defense badly on two big plays (one of which was off a deflected pass).
Hey excuse me, but is Joe Flacco as good as Big Ben, and is anybody on the Ravens as good as Brown? Maclin might be in the same zip code, but he's not even the wide receiver this guy recommended!
Somebody else named the Ravens running back not named West who catches passes. You mean like Belle? What the hell is the matter with this these people?
In other news, a very good film study of the Steelers game revealed that (in the analytics guys opinions) only one of the seven sacks were on the offensive line. I think the rest were on Kizer, the tight ends, and running backs in that order. The offensive line actually did a good job in pass protection!
It just sucked in run-blocking. As Bitonio and the analysts said, they failed to pick up inside stunts. Per Bitonio, that's because Tretter and Zietler are new here, and they're still getting used to eachother. (I could explain more in-depth here but I know that bores most of you non-OCD types).
On the one play I did have time to watch, the Steelers blew up an inside zone run for a big loss. The analysts themselves seemed oblivious to this, although they correctly indicted Randall Telfer for missing a key block.
The entire offensive line went to their right at the snap, but (and this was really impressive), the entire Steelers defensive front went with them, except for one OLB or defensive end who lagged to prevent the lateral cutback. This rendered zone-blocks impossible, and gave Crow nowhere to go except out of bounds.
It also locked the offensive linemen into running laterally, and that's bad news for the big uglies vs more athletic defensive linemen and linebackers.
Gregg Pruitt or Eric Metcalf might have made something happen there, but probably not, and certainly Crowell was doomed from the start.
What was so impressive here is that the Steelers had clearly planned this, and seemed to see this play coming, because they committed to it immediately.
Hue will be alarmed to see this on tape, but I expect him to adapt quickly. The Ravens will see that tape too, and have the people to do the same thing.
This isn't good news for the inside zone and Crowell in particular---and make no mistake, the Steelers defense was committed to stopping the zone-blocking specificly, and the stunts were part of that too.
However, for every reaction, there is and equal and opposite dirty trick available. On that play, the Ravens checkmated Crowell, but left the weak side of the field open. They committed early, and that's tailor-made for play-action, or just for Kizer to fake the handoff and run into all that space to his left.
And trust me: Hue will be ready for the Ravens. He's NOT a blockhead (I know that now).
Still, it will force Hue to run more power/man blocking on runs (and no it's not just because he "likes" that scheme better no matter what stop saying that), and that's not what Crowell does best.
Again, I'll stop in the shallows to avoid boring normal people, but this gets deep too.
But it's great for the Browns' leverage in contract negotiations for this one-cut running back, because it will suppress his stats, at least temporararily, until offensive coordinators find answers to these inside zone countermeasures I suspect the Steelers DC has pioneered...
But I digress...uh, I think...
Anyway, if the Steelers stuffed the Browns running game in week one, the Ravens should at least stifle it in week two, even as Hue makes adjustments and the interior offensive linemen get closer to being on the same page (note on that: they're veterans, so it won't take as long as it would with unvetted players).
I keep getting these "could not be delivered" messages from Hue, but I've been telling him to Lindy Infantyize the offense, and use more "long handoffs" ie little lobs to running backs in space (which are technically passes but really aren't).
There are good reasons for this. First and foremost, it looks like a pass, and the linemen react accordingly. The inside gaps are no longer threatened so they pin their ears back.
Even after defenses know you do it a lot, there's not much they can do about it, assuming you have good receivers and passcatching tight ends. They try to "spy" the running back with a fast linebacker or a safety, but the running back catches the lob in space, and outside (no need to "seal the edge" here--he already has it).
Gregg Pruitt rote massive havoc this way, but after him came Earnest Byner (you whippersnappers just look at Dayes--very similar to Byner).
With Brian Sipe, and later Bernie Kosar, these "dumpoffs" were a staple of the Browns' offense.
When you can't just load up and overpower people, this is how you "run" the ball. Quarterbacks love it because it inflates their stats. You really can't miss at five yards or less, and your running back gets 4, 9, 20 yards or a touchdown almost every time (provided you have a real downfield passing game and don't lean on it too hard).
I mentioned Dayes, but Crow can absolutely catch these lobs outside and do serious damage himself. He's bigger, stronger, and faster.
No doubt Duke Johnson would probably be better than both of these guys in that role, but as we saw vs Pittsburgh, he kept getting wide open intermediate and deep behind the Steelers defense from the slot, and you don't mess with that.
(Note: I assume that when he burned our friend Joe Haden, he was outside and not in the slot).
I've read how Kizer is "standing by" Kenny Britt, and that's cool. He kinda has to do this, and after all, one dropped pass which might have won a critical game shouldn't condemn a wide receiver with a pretty good history.
But Britt has been downright incompetent throughout preseason, and at the very least he'll lose snaps this week, and be on probation. I truly hope that possibly losing the damn home opener by dropping an easy pass while wide open pisses him off at himself as much as it pissed all of us off at him, and that he comes back with his vedderrunn head out of his ass and plays well...but I do not recommend him this week in fantasy.
Or any Brown or any Raven.
Now, Bill Livingston is too cute by half, but as a REAL intelligent analyst, I have to predict a Browns win in Baltimore. (My inner fan expects a loss...some how...some way...)
A less talented Browns team had the Ravens last season, and found a way to lose.
This week, Danny Shelton is back to 100%. (Oh yeah sorry he is a "defensive tackle" who was here last year ok?)
Ok and here's a few notes: The Ravens offensive line, quarterback, running backs, wide receivers, and tight end are all inferior to the Steelers' DO YOU UNDERSTAND EMIRACAL FACTS DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
Crowd noise and the hostile environment are legit factors, especially for rookie, but the vast majority of fans on both sides are getting mystical about this thing, like the Ravens are just kinda destined to win their home opener, because losing it would be catostrophic for them.
Ooo scary the cagey old Joe Flacco vs the confused, desperate rookie Kizer, who faces the best defense in the history of the NFL with no running game and stuff.
My inner-analyst calls all that bullshit. The 2017 Browns are the more talented team, in almost every position group and on both sides of the ball.
Certainly Flacco's experience gives him a critical advantage over Kizer, but he's playing against Gregg Williams' defense, and not against DeShone Kizer. Stop the fuzzy thinking!
Flacco is more likely to "pull it out" at the end than the rookie in hostile territory is, but even this is massively inflated! DeShone Kizer has, throughout preseason and vs the Steelers, proven that he responds well to pressure.
And as I've mentioned: Flacco is no Big Ben. He's really good, but let's quit getting silly here, ok?
A few more points: The Bengals lost not just Zeitler, but their elite left tackle. Marvin Lewis is their Head Coach, and Hue Jackson is HERE now. Burfict didn't play, and their tight end can't block. If you think Gramps Suggs will do that to Gramps Thomas for the first time ever, you are hallucinating. If you think...
Nevermind I'll stay in the shallows.
In practical terms, CJ Mosely is a huge monkey wrench that Hue has to circumvent. Mosely is a freak. Fortunately, he can only be in one place at a time, and (at least on pass plays) that's around DeValve or Njoku.
And of course the Ravens sport TWO Pro Bowl caliber safeties, so I could not recommend any Browns tight end for this game, and don't expect many long bombs either.
Kizer will have to hit the perimeter and "nibble" underneath (ok sorry can't go boring you sorry).
No the Browns offense will have a terrible time vs the Ravens defense, which IS better than the Steelers defense, and at least as well coached.
But the Ravens offense, in reality, does not compare to the one Gregg Williams' defense just held to two touchdowns.
The mystical crap doesn't register with a pure geek-analyst, but I'm more advanced, so psychology registers with me. It's "real"; I get it.
Everybody seems to think that the Browns are doomed, but this time, I guarantee you, the Browns themselves do not. They expect to win, because they KNOW that they are the more talented team...is any of this sinking in yet?
I know I know, ever since the old Browns became the Ravens and instantly won a Superbowl, the Browns have been "finding ways to lose" (with rare exceptions). Losing became almost traditional.
Each new Head Coach promised to fix it. They all failed.
But it's NOT a Gdamn gypsy curse, and these coaches, this owner, and this regime are NOT the same, and niether are the players on this team DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
I can't guarantee a win here, but CAN tell you that THIS Browns team expects to defeat a less talented team in their own back yard this sunday.
They will keep expecting this late in the fourth quarter, even if they're behind. Certainly I mean Kizer here too. They are the better team--why wouldn't they?
Hue Jackson settled for Ray Horton in 2015, but landed his evil twin in Gregg Williams a year later, and niether of them are superstitious, and niether are their players.
You still don't get this, so I have to revert to boxing again (it simplifies the psychology stuff a lot):
If you think you should survive and hope to maybe land a critical punch, you are a loser, and will probably lose. If you go all-out to out-punch the other guy, you are more likely to lose than to win. If you are smart, and have the other guy figured out, and are stronger, quicker, and tougher than your opponent, you will win, period.
...ok I'll simplify it further:
Unless the much more talented Browns are taking all these predictions and the betting line seriously, or are superstitious, they should defeat this substantially less-talented opponent.
(Sigh) ok maybe you'll get this: The best team should win.
Brownss 3, Ravenss ssero.
Nice to see the Bengals at 0-2 already. No doubt the LaCanfora infection is poised to set in and spread. The Staph and Mike Brown at eachother's throats and stuff. I'm glad the Rhona Barrets can pick on somebody else for a change.
More practically, I think I overestimated the Bengals, and think the Browns could finish second in the Division (probably no wild card, but still a thumb in everybody else's eye but mine).
Well okbye
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