Sunday, July 16, 2017

Final Roster, Receivers, Talent, Youth, and the Browns

Poor Terry Pluto is still fretting about the wide receivers.

I'll try to put this a new way:  

First, put the label-maker down and step away from it.  Let's just call everybody who can catch passes downfield a "receiver", ok?

This gives us DeValve, Njoku, Britt, Johnson, Crowell, Coleman, and I'll stop there at SIX; five of which should be in every offensive huddle.  (Note to Terry: You really need a quarterback and five offensive linemen, ok?)

Obviously, not all these guys can run the same patterns/fill the same tactical roles as what we call wide receiver.  Only Britt and Coleman can really "burn" on deep outside routes.  I was about to say that you don't want Crowell outside, but then I remembered the Head Coach, so...

But Duke and both tight ends can run every route from every position.  This is all you need, Terry.

Ideally, you need at least one "coverage dictator" who can threaten the deep safety consistently to keep them from squeezing you underneath, but you can do without if you have to.

Fortunately Terry, Britt, Coleman, and Louis can all fill that role.

Next,  what is the "slot"?  That's the area between the left tackle and the X-receiver.  Who can line up there?  That's correct: A running back, tight end, or wide receiver.

You see?  The slot is a location.  Not a player.  A quick little microbe can line up there, but so can a 250 lb tight end.  I know you think a microbe is mandatory, but believe me, it's really not.

Ezweav took his early for-fun guess at the Browns upcoming depth chart.  Most of it was really smart, but it wasn't perfect

EZ would personally like to see the very raw Deshone Kizer start game one for some reason, but forsees Kessler doing that, with Osweiler number two, which is probably right, because Hue wants to win.

I can't quibble with Crow/Duke/Vitale, but after that I don't know.

For one thing, EZ only carries four backs, including the fullback, and I think they might carry five.  For another thing, he picks Dayes over George Atkinson III.  EZ makes this a close call, with the tiebreaker being that Dayes was their draft pick.

It shouldn't be a close call, because Atkinson is a lot more talented.

Anyway, I think the Browns might well carry them both, because they'll run two-back offenses more than other teams.

He ranks the wide receivers wrong, with Coleman over Rodney Brittfield, and lists six of them.

EZ hasn't got the memo yet:  Two tight ends and sometimes two backs.  They probably carry five (or fewer) wide receivers.

Aw, now look at this three tight ends, and he's already put Njoku over DeValve.  Why is everybody so eager to dismiss DeValve, and keep possibly your best receiver on the bench to boot?

EZ clearly forsees one back and one tight end all the way, regardless of how the talent stacks up.  It's nice that he's giving Louis the slot, but just plain dumb when it's Louis instead of DeValve.

The Browns probably carry four tight ends.  DeValve and Njoku are both among the best receivers, and you don't plant one of them on the bench if you have a brain.

EZ keeps eight offensive linemen, and (interestingly) picks Cam Erving to start at right tackle over Shon Coleman.  Don't look at me for an argument.  Cam sucked at center, but tackle is a whole different world, and he'll be given a fair shot.

But they might keep nine offensive linemen, including a real backup center (I'd guess Reiter).

My own count is nine offensive linemen, five backs, four tight ends, three quarterbacks and ummm...yeah four wide receivers (sorry Terry.  But we can make it five if Josh Gordon is back ok?)

I love all the defensive linemen EZ keeps, but he keeps nine of them, and I don't think the Browns will keep that many.

I hope EZ is right and I'm wrong, because I like Holmes and Orchard both, a lot.

He picks Ogunjobi to start at RDE over Brantley, and I kinda think so too.

What's this six linebackers in a 4-2 base?  Hmm...well yeah maybe.  Linebackers are important special teams players.  And I like all those guys.  And we're only up to fifteen defenders on EZ's roster!  

EZ gives Rodney Schobertfield his props, calling him the third linebacker after Collins and Kirksey.  EZ recognizes that Joe never belonged outside in a 3-4, but should be fine anywhere in a 4-3 (or 4-2).

His sixth linebacker is undrafted rookie Kenneth Olugbode, a guy I've talked about.  And he should be a terrific 'teamer.

EZ knocks the secondary out of the park.  He has a good grasp of this scheme.

He calls Jabrill Peppers a "hybrid NB", and actually separates him from SS,  where he thinks veteran free agent Calvin Pryor will play.  EZ thinks Peppers will play a little deeper, and (I guess) an "under" free safety (or something...sorta...)

EZ has McCourty starting at free safety (big projection, but a smart one).

I have just one issue with EZ here:  He keeps five corners, Campbell, Reynolds, and Kindred, and kicks UDFA Kai Nacua to the curb.

It's hard for me to knock the other listed roster contenders here, but I can tell you the safeties are heavy on strong and light on free, and free is critical.

McCourty's twin is a stud free safety in New England, and it seems like he'd be fine there, ok.  But he's been banged up a lot.  Reynolds is still a little shy of his prime, and certainly has the brains.

But those who project Kindred or Campbell to free safety need to change their meds.

Kai Nacua is a pure free safety with a long and consistent history as a playmaker.  He has the size and the speed.  I give him a chance to make the roster, because if they move him to the practice squad he'll probably get nabbed by somebody else.

Check out EZ's roster, though.  Find me the tomato cans.  (Sorry: Boxing slang: A tomato can is a boxer who isn't very good but can take a lot of punishment.  They tend to bleed a lot).

No tomato cans here.  Not anywhere, including at quarterback, as deep as you dig.

...well ok Osweiler has a lot to overcome, and yeah ok I'm giving a bunch of cherries a lot of premature credit yeah, but read their scouting reports ok?  All my projections are reasonable, given typical patterns of player evolution, and with these coaches.

Quit smirking at me.  Yeah I know every fan of every team is eternally optimistic yeah yeah.  But why don't you see this:

For starters, which NFL team upgraded more through free agency this offseason than the Browns?  Maybe somebody did, but the Browns are certainly among the top movers here.

Second, they just drafted three first rounders and a second.  They've drafted what--twenty four? players in the last two seasons.  Erving,  Orchard, Crowell, Bitonio, Thomas, Kirksey, Haden, Shelton, Carder etc are still here, and (for once) they extended the core guys (except Crowell).

Despite this, perhaps two thirds of what will be this final roster will be first, second, or third year players.

Still with me -snap-snap-?  Well, this means that over half this roster will be a LOT better than it was last season, and two thirds of it is a couple years away from it's peak.

This team is getting better, faster, than any other team in the NFL.  This is a scientific fact.  

No pom-poms here.  

Ranked 31st by PFP?  Axe me who I think the Browns are better than.  Thank you:

Start with the Bengals.  That's right.  Their offensive line just took a major hit (notably our new right guard).  Hue Jackson and four outstanding receivers made Dalton elite for one season.  Now Green and Eiffert are what's left.

They did just get a hellacious running back, and already had two excellent ones, but in case nobody told you, those five huge guys in front of them matter too, ok?

And oh yeah: Their Head Coach is Marvin Lewis.

Next up: the Ravens.  They're the real world version of the Browns.  (You know, "a lot of holes to fill"?)

Harbaugh yeah ok, and Flacco too, but enough with the superstition: Compare the two teams position group by position group and even stud-for-stud and all you got is Flacco.  I'll call your Flacco, and raise you a Garrett, Crowell, Collins, Kirksey, Njoku etc. dammit.

Buncha mystical crap...

Conversely, ok the Steelers got our number, along with the Pats, Falcons, and a bunch more teams yeah ok so stipulated.

The Steelers got even better over the offseason, as did the Pats, Raiders, etc.

Verily, the Browns have a still unresolved issue at quarterback, and a team this young is bound to make more mistakes, but...31st?  My God these people are allowed to VOTE!

I'd have to rank the 2017 Browns in the bottom third due to inexperience and quarterback issues, but 31st?

I'd wildly guess the Browns should rank...nevermind just find out where they ranked the Ravens and Bengals and rank the Browns one rung above the highest, dammit.

I can't wait for this season.




























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