Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Browns Power Ranking 31st: I'm Trying to Grok.

I know I sound like a hyper-homer cheerleader here, but the dumbassitude is almost universally anti-Browns, and I have to take it where I find it.

First, I'm not offended by or worried about Gramps Hall not wanting to play for Cleveland.  He's on his last legs, the Browns are not contenders in 2017, and he'd be a backup again anyway.  I wouldn't want to come here if I were him either.

Get over it.

Now PFP again ranked the Browns 31st, and I want to thank them for this softball.  I've included the link, because their analysis was actually reasonable (if shallow).  This is another example of cognative disonance, because nothing in the article in any way supported their conclusion.

I'll try to help them out.  It's just too stupid to pretend that Cody Kessler won't be as good as he was in 2016, but how 'bout them concussions?

Now we're talkin'!  Who steps in for him?  Well, Osweiler is the logical choice, but is he Denver Brock or Texans Brock?  Even as Denver Brock, he was just kinda okay.

Everybody who pays attention knows that Kizer needs a lot of work, and could bust out anyway.  So, if you figure Kessler goes down early, and assume the worst about his backup, you could put the Browns quarterbacks as a group in the bottom five.

(Don't start, Black Cloud.  There are at least four teams with worse quarterback trios.  Really more like seven or eight.  I know there's a brain in there somewhere, BC...try to use it.)

Quarterback being the most important position, you can massively overestimate it's value, and talk yourself into ignoring this:

PFF expects the Browns to have the second best offensive line in the NFL.  Check.  USA Today ranks their secondary at 22.  Ok.  It should actually be better, but I'll take it.

Ok now you can put your excrement-colored glasses on for a look at the wide receivers.  Assume Corey Coleman is made of fine china and will spend most of his time on bikes and in hot tubs (or in jail, which btw based on my info so far, I'd consider fair).

Britt will fall back from his carreer year last season, and just be you know, pretty good, but not that good.  Ricardo Louis will be just a guy.  Therefore, you tell yourself, the Browns will have the worst wide receivers in history (32nd).

See how helpful I am?  See me embrace insanity?

Ok now let's check out the rest of this dumpster fire:

Tight end:  Well, I'm done helping here, because Seth DeValve is a secret weapon who I was personally underrated until I did my research and checked my experts.

Everybody knows about Njoku, and gives him his props, but even the Pittsburgh writer who wrote the linked article gave DeValve a "meh" (sure hope his team does!).

...jeez yer killing me here, but I'll help you rationalize some more:

Assume that Hue Jackson will only use one tight end (that's right assume he is a dumbass).  Well, Njoku is a rookie.  Even the best rookie tight ends have fairly modest production, so we can rationalize Njoku to maybe 15.  

But DeValve is pesky, and now a veteran, so you have to upgrade the duo to top ten as a position group.

What about running back?  Well, Crow and Duke averaged 4.9 ypc and combined for more receptions than most wide  receivers get.  We're supposed to ignore the upgraded offensive line and Hue Jackson here, but I can't make myself that stupid, ok?

In fact, which running backs are better than Isaiah Crowell?  Well ok I'll give you Zeke, Belle, David Johnson, and...oh what really Lynch and Peterson again?  Now?  Ah screw it ok but still we're talking a top 5 combo here at least gdammit jeez it's like pulling teeth to get 5.9 ypc before Zietler/Tretter it's props how far am I supposed to dumbassify myself here?)

So on offense you got top 5 running backs, top 10 tight ends, a top two offensive line, but crappy quarterbacks and wide receivers (which is bullcrap, but I'm trying to channel dumbass rationalizations ok?)

Therefore, the terrible quarterback and utter lack of wide receivers will prevent the tight ends (oh sorry tight end singular) from accomplishing anything whatsoever.

I mean who's the slot receiver?

God I'm going to have to wash my brain out with soap here...

Ok so stipulating a #22 secondary, how can we dis a defensive line including Ogbah, Garrett, and Shelton?  

...I'm sorry I can't do this.  Hue Jackson and Gregg Williams are the coordinators, they're going to penetrate and run the ball, I didn't even get to Kirksey and Collins, and you are an idiot if you rank the Browns 31st.

JC it's like the Browns are Donald Trump!  What's next Haslam colluding with the Rooneys?  31st?  How can any sentient being ok nevermind ohmmm...ohmmm....

Anyway I just vented in the men's room (not writing on the walls btw) and I'm back now:

Cliffnotes for any new readers:  Two tight ends (almost mandatory with Rodney DeValvefield and Njoku).  "22 personnel" (two backs, two tight ends, one wide receiver) ( easy option where both tight ends can play H-back, block in-line, line up in the slot or wide, and where both running backs can go to the slot, and one can line up wide--especially useful if you run short on wide receivers)...

4-2 base defense useful when the two linebackers are Kirksey and Collins, one of the "defensive backs" is Jabrill Peppers, Ogbah and Garrett are true edge-rushers, Danny Shelton gets to line up in a gap...

If you read this Blog, you know all this stuff.

If you play Fantasy Football, you should consider Crow and Johnson both in any ppr league (just not as your rb1).  You should avoid Corey Coleman until he's almost free.  You should take a flyer on Josh Gordon if you can.

If you're in one of the more enlightened leagues which give you points for individual defenders, Garrett might be overpriced, but Ogbah will not be, and is underrated.  Taylor might be better than Haden.  Between Kirksey and Collins, take the cheapest (but DO take one!!!).

DeValve will dilute Njoku; find other tight ends.  

The Browns defense will be respectable, and create a lot more turnovers, so it's a super-cheap backup option if you can.  

...ok I mean Gregg Williams' 2017 Browns defense with Garrett, Ogbah, Shelton, Collins, Kirksey, Taylor, Haden, and Peppers should be above average.  Because the 2016 Browns defense was so hideous, you could exploit the Memorex Moron majority by nabbing them dirt-cheap.

Take the Browns as your backup defense, and use the dough you save on a quarterback or something.  

The Browns 2017 special teams will be as good as any: 

Contrary to popular hysterical belief, Parkey was and is an excellent kicker.  Gonzales might be even better, but either way, we got that covered.

They just added Jabrill Peppers as a returner, and (while you were sleeping) a whole bunch of spare defensive backs, linebackers, and tight ends.

I'm impressed.  Oh yeah "why?"

Well, if you're punting, you use exactly ZERO real offensive linemen.  Everybody who is blocking is also covering, and you need real athletes.  The return team is the same. The only way they can get to a punter in time is via speed, and once the ball is in the air, you have people attacking and trying to block in space.

If a hypthetical team were to hypotheticly carry four tight ends, five running backs, and one or two extra defensive backs on it's roster, it might just be better in coverage and blocking for returns.  Honest!  Even for the Browns!  

Not that this has anything to do with the two-tight end or "22" package or base 4-2 defense or anything.

Yeah "zingg" again oknevermind


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