As I've conceded, the Steelers will probably run away with the AFC North. Because everyone else has been putting the Browns in the basement again, I went a little nuts, and overreacted to that.
Setting the Steelers aside, while the 2017 Browns will obviously have more talent and depth than the Ravens and Bengals, I don't expect the Browns to just steamroll them.
The Ravens did just add Jeremy Maclin and Gramps Watson to their offense, although the venerable tight end isn't exactly a Pitta at this point in his long, long career. (Note Ben Watson is a great american--this aint personal).
I also have to stipulate that the Ravens should have a stifling top five defense, particularly against the pass. They may well have the top safety tandem in the NFL, they've just added OLB JT Watt, who some say is a slightly smaller chip off his brother's block, and another solid defensive lineman.
But nobody gets this: The Browns offense will be different, and modern NFL defenses are not built to stop it. Both teams know that the Browns are going to try to run the ball (mostly with Crowell).
I have a hard time putting myself in opposing defensive coordinators' shoes, trying to decide which personnel grouping makes the most sense.
If you consider DeValve and Njoku as receivers first, then if you see two real wide receivers in the huddle, you almost have to go ahead and trade in a linebacker for a safety, first off.
But now, do you use a Nascar package front six, or play it straight and two-gap? That's not what Suggs or Watt do, and you don't take them off the field (although Gramps Suggs should come off to suck oxygen sometimes).
So, if Watt's not coming, he's not doing what he does best, as he's an edge-player. Blitzing outside vs a run opens up running lane. Coming inside across the tackle's face is more effective, but opens up that side the same way.
Blitzing inside linebackers or safeties through the a-gaps works better vs the run, because if a lineman does block you, he's coming off a big guy, and you still clog things up and force the back to run lateral. Sometimes you get through clean, and blow it up. If a running back picks you up, that's because it's a pass, and you've prevented him from becoming a receiver.
However, it's extra-dangerous to blitze inside against two dangerous tight ends, because one of them is going exactly into the space you just vacated.
You can't intimidate a 250 lb tight end. You can't reach around him, or knock the ball loose. On paper, those Ravens safeties match up with tight ends like these, but in reality, they're outweighed by over 30 lbs and out-reached by over a foot (it's not just height but arm-length and stuff; it's exponential).
Who's covering Britt? Can you really run zone against two tight ends and two wide receivers? (Not rhetorical--I really don't know). You want to man up with these guys? If you hold a safety deep can you even slow Crow down?
Watt can beat a tackle outside, but how far outside does he need to get to set up outside a tight end who's as athletic as he is? Hell, if he lines up way over there, screw the block just holler "Hit me I'm open" and let JT take himself out of your way!
Can you cover two tight ends and two wide receivers in man? Really all four?
That's just the monkey wrench, because the Browns will try to bully the Ravens defense and run behind seven real blockers (maybe eight). Vs probably a nickel, which is nervous about those two tight ends as receivers.
Now, I repeat that the Browns should zone-block, because Crowell thrives off that. He is the ideal one-cut back. Both inside and outside zones would be greatly enhanced by these two tight ends.
Tight ends have the size and speed to get to the edge, and they line up closer to it. They're trained to chip-block anyway; for them there's no learning curve. They execute their chip, and go munchkin-hunting instead of into a pattern.
I respect the Ravens defense, but think the Browns offense will have something for them. I'm not saying the Browns will score 30 points on them or anything.
The Browns might march up and down some, but the Ravens would blow some runs up and put Kessler (yeah Mary Kay Kessler) under the gun and kitchen-sink him and stuff. I'd take 16 points is that too much?
Where the Browns have the Ravens is Browns D vs Ravens O.
While you've been napping, the Browns have piled up Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins, Chistian Kirksey, Myles Garrett, and Jabrill Peppers. Oh yeah and Gregg Williams btw (who is grinning ear-to-ear).
Gregg Williams just can't help blitzing a lot, but will get into opposing backfields via the front four alone, so he can hold seven in coverage when he needs to.
Jeremy Maclin is a for-real threat, but Gregg can afford to keep a deep safety over him. He's the only deep threat, and he's not a tall guy, so the Browns corners aren't overmatched.
I would expect a very low-scoring game, and the referees could well hand it over to the Ravens again. But if they don't, the Browns overall talent should win.
Psychology is part of this, you know.
1-15 means a lot less to these coaches and players than it does to the pundits. The players don't care about numbers. Some are superstitious, but none of them believe the Browns are cursed.
Joe Haden (or whoever) will study the guy he has to cover, and (now that he's healthy) feel good about covering him. Myles Garrett will figure out how best to beat that left tackle (and talk to Joe Thomas about it btw).
Each individual player will research his individual matchups, and you know what? They'll usually expect to beat that guy, ok? You know why? Because FOUR of them were first round picks for a REASON, DO YOU UNDERSTAND? and the guys like Kirksey, who had to earn their props, expect to win because they've been winning for a long time.
Bitonio and Thomas respect the venerable Gramps Suggs, but don't fear him. Except for the right tackle (who will have help vs Watt--they probably won't waste him on Big Joe)--just about every Browns player will expect to outplay his Ravens opposite number.
This is exactly what Bill Belichick means by "do your job": Beat the guy in your face (ok and stay in your gap/trust your teammates to to their jobs/don't freelance--but mainly beat your man).
New topic: Jamie Collins and freelancing. I do now think that this was a secondary or tertiary reason why Lord Insideous made his radical midseason trade with the Browns.
The primary reason was money. He didn't have enough cap space to keep everybody, and determined that Collins was the guy whose loss would hurt him the least. He simply got what he could for him instead of losing him for no recompense when his contract expired at the end of 2016.
But yes, I think Collins freelanced. The Sith Lord's defensive system is different from Gregg Williams' is.
Williams actually delegates specific play-calls to a linebacker, who he expects to adjust to what he sees in front of him faster than Gregg can from the sidelines. In this respect, it's more like the Ravens old sytem when they had Ray Lewis, and Mike Pettine did some of that as well.
I've heard that Joe Schobert (already!) can make these calls, and that Kirksey can too. But I expect Gregg to let Collins do it, so that he can be like Ray Lewis.
Jamie isn't very articulate, but you shouldn't let that fool you. He's highly intelligent, and he learned from the best. And if he can make the calls, he's his own boss. He kinda has a license to freelance all he wants.
Residents of Myopia and Oblivia didn't get the memo, but this is significant, and might well be the single most important factor in turning this defense around.
This is one of the reasons why I can't find a negative comment by any player who ever played for Williams, including guys who never started, rarely played, and got cut by him, and players he benched, or well, anybody.
Williams was one reason why Collins signed up long-term without shopping around or dickering, and why Jason McCourty made a bee-line here after being released.
Bill Belichick might be the best Head Coach in history, but Jamie Collins might not have been "optimized" in his defensive scheme. I'm not picking on Bill here: Before he was an awesome Head Coach, he was an awesome defensive coordinator.
Different strokes: in a Gregg Williams defense, there is an inviting square hole for this square peg, and he's really happy to have Jamie.
Ray Lewis was a little faster, but also shorter and smaller. Contrary to mythology, he got knocked on his kiester sometimes, whereas Collins has become a decent stack/shed guy. Lewis probably wins the comparison overall, but not by a whole lot.
Collins is a rare athlete who will probably be the defensive star of a lot of games in 2017. Gregg Williams will let him off the leash, and let him do his thing.
Collins is a universally repected Pro Bowl talent as-is. Under Gregg Williams, he might well make a big leap up from that level.
And by the way, he's one of these extremely rare big guys who can cover a Njoku or DeValve...didn't know that, did you?
I'll explain why the Browns will beat the Bengals in my next post. Or eventually.
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